Am I crazy to trade Joey Votto for Ian Kinsler?

I'm in an 18 team Dynasty league (points league, weekly lineup changes), currently in 1st place [8-2] and Neil Walker (what has been having a GREAT season) just went on the DL for appendix surgery. My backup 2B is Brandon Hicks so that's not a guy I really want in my starting lineup for as long as Walker is going to be out. Joey Votto has had a down year and then got injured, so I am in first place and he has done nothing to help my team this year. Lucas Duda my backup has been doing just fine. Essentially it's a huge upgrade at 2B, but only a little downgrade at 1B. I read that Votto might not play the rest of the year at 100%, so his already lower power numbers might get even lower....and with an underperforming Reds lineup, he won't get pitched to much this year. I hate to trade my first overall pick (#8) especially in a Dynasty league, but I have a good chance of winning this year, and Kinsler will help a ton right now. Thoughts?

Depending on who my back-up 1B is or is available , I'd probably do it too, unless I could get Dozier, Altuve or Gennett for much cheaper...

I wouldn't count on Kinsler maintaining his productivity with the bat. I don't know what stats fantasy baseball uses, but Kinsler is significantly above his career numbers and will likely regress as the season goes on. He was also my favorite Ranger, if that effects your thoughts on my statement. If it's possible I would go for Altuve instead

Bootstraps9 said:

I wouldn't count on Kinsler maintaining his productivity with the bat. I don't know what stats fantasy baseball uses, but Kinsler is significantly above his career numbers and will likely regress as the season goes on. He was also my favorite Ranger, if that effects your thoughts on my statement. If it's possible I would go for Altuve instead

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Altuve is not available, Kinsler is the best option who I can get at the moment. I understand your point about Kinsler regressing, but there are a few factors working in his favor. First of all he hits at the top of the order (#1 or 2) in front of a loaded Detroit lineup in Cabrera, Hunter, and Martinez....he hits real good at Comerica Park, he has lost weight over the offseason and reverted back to his old hitting approach and now is less pull-happy and is using all fields.

Our league uses a lot of different point categories but if you break it down to Points Per Game Kinsler is a 3.37ppg, Walker was 3.27ppg so it's actually a slight upgrade to an already strong 2B. As for my 1B situation I am putting a lot at risk with no backup if I trade Votto (I have a few reserve position players, with most of my NA slots being used up by prospects) but Duda is at 2.78ppg and Votto currently at 3.29ppg. The news I read about Votto not being at 100% for the rest of the year worries me so if I can trade him while I can I think getting back a run scorer in Kinsler will work out OK. Keep in mind I am first in my division WITHOUT the help of Votto all year. I think Duda and Kinsler (combined 6.15ppg) is a stronger pair over Votto and Hicks (combined 5.77ppg).

Long term it might not be the best trade, but I think I can definitely win this year so I might as well take the chance right?

gt2590 said:

Depending on who my back-up 1B is or is available , I'd probably do it too, unless I could get Dozier, Altuve or Gennett for much cheaper...

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None of those players are available...Kinsler is the best 2B that is up for trade. I'm starting Lucas Duda at 1B with no backup (risky) with Steve Pearce being the only viable wavier option if Duda does get injured.



Here is my roster as it stands now:

With that type of fall-off at 1B, I'd keep Votto and take your licks at 2B.

And if you choose to drop Hicks, the drop-off isn't that drastic. Honestly, I've even got some good value out of the Punto/Sogard platoon...

The problem is, Hicks isn't an everyday player and he can be streaky. Not to mention I might need Hicks at SS if Hanley gets hurt again. (Which I just saw he has AC joint irritation). Argh...

The thing with Votto is that not only are his power numbers down, but his team sucks this year so I can't see him getting pitched to much. If Votto can get back to being a 3.6+ppg player, then I'm all for keeping him....but there is no way of knowing especially if his legs are not going to be 100%.

Points leagues favor an OBP guy, like votto, over a power hitter with a high K rate. In every points league I've ever played, K's are a big minus points. I'd keep votto unless I could find something better than Kinsler. In a dynasty league (all I play/6 teams) Votto carries a lot more, future value, than Kinsler. Find someone in FA to hold the fort down. Maybe the kid that is taking over for Walker?

That said, flags fly forever.

Yeah, I wouldn't trade Votto. You would be selling low on Votto and buying high on Kinsler. Hicks or another waiver wire 2b should hold you down until Walker is back.

CatdaddysCards said:

Points leagues favor an OBP guy, like votto, over a power hitter with a high K rate. In every points league I've ever played, K's are a big minus points. I'd keep votto unless I could find something better than Kinsler. In a dynasty league (all I play/6 teams) Votto carries a lot more, future value, than Kinsler. Find someone in FA to hold the fort down. Maybe the kid that is taking over for Walker?

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K's do not count against you in this league, otherwise I wouldn't consider this trade. Harrison looks to be taking over for Walker and is already taken, and slightly worse than Hicks. PPG wise, the only 2B better than Kinsler are Altuve, Rendon, Dozier, and Gordon...all NFT. Kinsler has the same PPG as Robinson Cano.

Essentially the trade will hurt long term, but for this year I think it makes sense because Walker might be out for a long period of time, and Hicks playing time has been getting diminished because of his offensive woes. When Walker comes back then I can trade Kinsler if I need to or stick him in my Util slot...which is an upgrade over Eaton/Jennings.

Crewfan82 said:

Yeah, I wouldn't trade Votto. You would be selling low on Votto and buying high on Kinsler. Hicks or another waiver wire 2b should hold you down until Walker is back.

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I definitely hear ya...but I think with the surgery Walker got it's 4-6 weeks recovery time and then a few more weeks to get back into game shape, so it might be a couple months without a reliable 2B especially if Hicks loses the starting job.