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Future Hall of Famers

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Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
9,446
170
It's been a while since we had a good HOF conversation...

HITTERS

Locks (HOF if they retired today)

Albert Pujols - MVP's, 3 homers away from 600 and should reach 3000 hits early next season. 1st ballot
Miguel Cabrera - 2 MVP's, triple crown, 450+ homers and 2500+ hits. 1st ballot
Ichiro Suzuki - 3000+ hits (in the US), 10 straight 200 hit seasons. IMO his true value is less than the perception because he didn't walk and had almost no power (career OPS 107) but he'll still be 1st ballot.
Adrian Beltre - little more than an average offensive player until he turned 30, something changed in his age 31 season. First 12 seasons he got MVP votes once. After that he's had votes in 7 straight seasons. Just 58 hits from 3000.
Carlos Beltran - 2600+ hits, 1500+ runs and RBI, 425+ homers, 300+ stolen bases.
Robinson Cano - Compare to Morgan, Alomar and Sandberg at the position. He should finish his career as a "no-doubt" HOFer. I feel like he's already there

League of their own

Mike Trout - Needs to reach 10 years to meet MLB requirements for the Hall. 5 seasons, 5 top-2 MVP finishes, 5-time leader in WAR.

2-3 more seasons needed

Chase Utley - Was probably the best 2nd baseman in baseball for half a decade, but played his first full season at 26 and so does not have the counting stats. Given that it's unlikely that he will do much more and may not even reach 2000 hits, it seems unlikely he will make the Hall.
Joe Mauer - MVP, 3-time batting title as a catcher. That alone may be enough for him to get in but I feel like 2000 career hits will definitely help his case (he's at 1800+)
Joey Votto - MVP, 5 time OBP leader (13th best all-time). As modern metrics have highlighted the importance of OBP, this should help Votto immensely. Missed time due to injury and doesn't even have 1500 hits yet, but I believe that he will make the Hall.
Dustin Pedroia - ROY, MVP (probably undeserved). Pedroia combines solid hitting, great defense and heart. I don't think he'll have enough to make the Hall, but it will depend how much longer he can play. 3 really solid seasons might do it, but he might need more than that.
David Wright - Best hitter in Mets history? Unfortunately spinal stenosis will almost definitely prevent him from putting together the few seasons he would need to be considered for the Hall.

3-5 more seasons needed

Evan Longoria - Still just 31 and had a resurgent season last year. Approaching 250 homers. He'll likely need 3-5 solid seasons for consideration
Andrew McCutchen - MVP, 3 time top-3 finish in MVP voting. 30 years old, but the last season and a half have been an almost unprecedented decline.
Ryan Braun - MVP, .300+ batting average and almost 300 homeruns at age 33. His chances will hinge as much on how people view steroids as his final numbers
Buster Posey - ROY, MVP, batting title as a catcher and leader of a team that won 3 WS. Having a great season at age 30, but counting stats still quite low (just passed 1000 hits and barely passed 100 homeruns.)

Great Start

Giancarlo Stanton - 200+ homeruns and he's just 27. Interestingly, he has never hit 40 homeruns yet, though that seems inevitable if he can stay healthy.
Bryce Harper - Just 24 years old but already a ROY and MVP, and his MVP season was one of the greatest seasons in history. 4-time all-star and this season is looking a lot like his MVP season.
Manny Machado - 2 top-5 MVP finishes and he's only 24.
Nolan Arenado - Just 26. 2 straight seasons leading the league in home runs, RBI and total bases.



PITCHERS

The previous era was either one with a dearth of great pitchers, or we may need to rethink what a HOF pitcher is. This will be clearly illustrated by comparing how many hitters are already HOF-worthy and/or are on their way...


Locks (HOF if they retired today)

Clayton Kershaw - Buster Olney wrote an article saying Kershaw is an MVP without throwing another pitch. I've long felt that Johan Santana deserves far more HOF consideration than anyone else seems to think for his short but dominant peak. Kershaw already has a longer and more dominant peak than Santana has. Despite just 8 full seasons (and parts of 2 more), Kershaw is a HOFer

2-3 more seasons needed

CC Sabathia - Only Bartolo Colon and Sabathia have more than 200 career wins (among active players). W-L % over .600. Cy Young winner. Career ERA is not very impressive (3.71) but if he can reach 250 wins (he has 228 now) I think he might warrant consideration
Justin Verlander - Last season's 2nd-place finish in the Cy Young was a welcome sight. 170+ wins, Cy Young and ROY awards in his trophy chest.


3-5 more seasons needed

Zack Greinke - Cy Young. Overall very solid pitcher who had 2 transcendent seasons (including a season with a 1.66 ERA which he did not win the Cy Young). If he has 3 more great seasons and passes 200 homers I think he has a reasonable shot
Felix Hernandez - Seems like he's been pitching forever but he's just 31. Cy Young, 2-#2 finishes. Been roughly a league-average pitcher the last couple of seasons. Needs to reinvent himself and have a few more really solid seasons to be considered.
Jon Lester - Cancer survivor, big part of the Red Sox and Cubs Championships. Has really come into his own over the last few seasons as 2014 and 2016 were arguably his 2 best seasons.
Max Scherzer - 2 Cy Young Awards (in the last 4 seasons). Was basically a .500 pitcher until 27, so he has some catching up to do, but he's been great for half a decade now.
David Price - Won a Cy Young and 2 other top-2 finishes but entering his 31 season he only has 121 wins (with just 65 loses.) Probably needs 5 really solid seasons before real consideration.

Great Start

Chris Sale - Career ERA under 3. 5 straight All-Star Games and 5 straight seasons with a top 6 finish in Cy Young voting (although he's never finished top-2). Great start to this season, but doesn't even have 80 wins, so he's a long way away.
Madison Bumgarner - Career ERA under 3. 100 wins at age 27. Dominant playoff resume.
 
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death2redemptions

New member
Feb 4, 2016
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The Carolina on the Southern side
I agree with all of your locks, however I'm still curious if voters will realize it with Beltre & Beltran, especially the "small hall" guys. I believe they'll eventually realize that they are after they've been on the ballot for a few or so years.
 

RStadlerASU22

Active member
Jan 2, 2013
8,881
11
For the hitters I only like your top 4 Locks and Trout, Kershaw for Pitcher, and then the Great Start people all have a chance IMO.

Ryan
Will Clark / Mike Brown Collector
 

Brewer Andy

Active member
Aug 10, 2008
9,634
21
I agree with Ryan. Not sold on Beltran but definitely looks like I need to take a closer look. And yes Yadier Molina is a lock as of today


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Super Mario

Well-known member
Mar 1, 2009
18,242
85
Mushroom Kingdom
I dislike the use of 'HITTERS' as the terminology used for the position players other than pitchers.

It bothers me because as a Yadier Molina fan, it shows that most people only look at offensive statistics when judging wether or not a player is Hall of Fame worthy.

I believe Yadier is a Hall of Famer, and I believe he has more of a Hall of Fame case than Buster Posey, even will less offensive statistics. I look at that this way. I don't see anyone saying Posey is one of the greatest of all time. Molina on the other hand, that's said on a daily basis by those in and outside of the game.
 
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death2redemptions

New member
Feb 4, 2016
12,488
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The Carolina on the Southern side
I agree with Ryan. Not sold on Beltran but definitely looks like I need to take a closer look. And yes Yadier Molina is a lock as of today

Beltran is a borderline lock IMO. His advanced metrics say yes and while he hasn't hit any of the milestone traditional stats, he's very, very close & solid all around.

I suppose the same could be said of Cano. He's not really close to any of the accumulative milestone stats but for playing at 2nd base his offense is quiet impressive (career .300 hitter, close to 300 HR & 2,500 hits). People often forget he's also won some gold glove awards down the line (and he's actually deserving of them).
 

RStadlerASU22

Active member
Jan 2, 2013
8,881
11
I dislike the use of 'HITTERS' as the terminology used for the position players other than pitchers.

It bothers me because as a Yadier Molina fan, it shows that most people only look at offensive statistics when judging wether or not a player is Hall of Fame worthy.

I believe Yadier is a Hall of Famer, and I believe he has more of a Hall of Fame case than Buster Posey, even will less offensive statistics. I look at that this way. I don't see anyone saying Posey is one of the greatest of all time. Molina on the other hand, that's said on a daily basis by those in and outside of the game.
I was just mentioning my opinions as offensive vs pitchers or non pitchers vs pitchers. Molina def deserves cosiderartion and I would put him above Posey for sure.

Ryan
Will Clark / Mike Brown Collector
 

RStadlerASU22

Active member
Jan 2, 2013
8,881
11
Beltran is a borderline lock IMO. His advanced metrics say yes and while he hasn't hit any of the milestone traditional stats, he's very, very close & solid all around.

I suppose the same could be said of Cano. He's not really close to any of the accumulative milestone stats but for playing at 2nd base his offense is quiet impressive (career .300 hitter, close to 300 HR & 2,500 hits). People often forget he's also won some gold glove awards down the line (and he's actually deserving of them).
His 162 game avg is .281 / 28 / 100 / 100 runs etc. All good stats , Hall worthy, not 100% sure. I guess I wouldn't be mad either way, but he is gonna reach some numbers because of a lengthy career vs a dominant career. If you compare him to Belte though (dif position I know), his average numbers are actually better. So I'd say since I think Belted should get it, maybe CB should too. Canoe averages are similar to both, so it'll be interesting to see if the next 5 are more like 2015 or 2016.

Ryan
Will Clark / Mike Brown Collector
 

bstanwood

Well-known member
Sep 24, 2016
3,666
332
Mystic, CT
I'd put Holliday and Beltran in the same category and for me that is the tier right under HOF. Both very very good players but for me they are not among the best that ever played. Maybe less emphasis should be put on position but if I were naming best outfielders ever I'd go a long time before I mentioned them.
 

Jjoey52

Member
Feb 12, 2017
80
0
If being a dirty player is required, Utley is a lock. Don't think Braun will get in, especially blaming the lab tech like he did. Kershaw a lock as is Trout.

The HOF is becoming the Hall of very Good, guys are getting in just because they played a long time, but did not dominate, Beltra, Beltre Mayer, Pedroia, and others fall into this category. Phil Niekro an all time dominant pitcher, Puleeze.


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stof

New member
Oct 9, 2010
14
0
I think Votto is the most interesting current player to think about. As others have mentioned, his counting stats are nothing special, but advanced analytics show him to be an elite player. The guy has the 13th-highest OBP of all time and the 16th-highest OPS.
 

bstanwood

Well-known member
Sep 24, 2016
3,666
332
Mystic, CT
It's a completely flawed method I know this but Hall Of Fame is pretty subjective anyway so whatever, I think of "the eye test" more than traditional stats or advanced stats when thinking of a player for the hall. I already said that I consider Beltran and Holliday to be in the tier below HOF, not a bad place to be by the way, I see Votto as a hall of famer. This guy is consistent, he's an asset in both halves of the inning and he does the little things as well as anyone. If he played in almost any other city I think he would be twice the name he is now. It has absolutely no meaning at all, but he's got my vote...if he keeps his current pace for another 3-4 seasons
 

psj

Active member
Jul 24, 2015
2,058
0
Long Island
Its incredible that Votto is an all-time great with things like OBP, and OPS. He in some pretty rarefied company, but I still dont think he's a HOF. He reminds me of a Lefty O'Doul type player. Some great stats, but not enough longevity or milestone numbers yet. Not even 1500 hits, 300 homers or 1000 rbi. He's already 33, can he get to 300-350 homers and 2200 hits? I'm not sure he can. If he could, with the career avg, and OBP/OPS, I think he a surefire lock
 

Austin

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
5,706
41
Dallas, Texas
Beltran will probably eventually make it. His all-around skills and stats are very similar to Andre Dawson's
Dawson had much more of that star quality that voters look for, but Beltran is just as good and is well-respected.
He'll probably get in on his 6th to 10th ballot.

I used to think Votto had no shot, but he's been growing on me.
He likely won't get in because most voters like the flashy career numbers and don't care about metrics and walks and on-base percentage. An increasing number of writers are certainly impressed by sabermetrics, but to get 75% of voters to care enough will be tough when his career numbers as a first basemen will be nowhere close to the milestones and huge stats of other HOF first basemen.

Cano is pretty much a lock. He's on pace for well over 3,000 hits and could have over 400 homers.

I don't think Molina will get in, or even come close, during his ten years on the ballot. Being one of the greatest fielders ever at your position, even as a catcher, means almost nothing to voters, outside of Ozzie Smith. And Ozzie was not only a legendary human highlight reel, but likeable and a household name. What other outstanding fielder but slightly above average hitter other than Ozzie has even come close to even 40% of the HOF vote?

Remember, it's not whether you think a player deserves it. It's what you think the voters will do.
There are players with 10 to 16 Gold Gloves who never came close to the Hall of Fame. But I think Molina does have a good shot at the Veteran's Committee vote, which has elected outstanding defensive players like Bill Mazeroski and Ron Santo.
 

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