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What are the odds on making money on a box?

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RagingAcid

Member
Feb 26, 2017
465
2
Markham, ON
I mean. It has to be 1%. Even good cards are worth $10 give or take. Maybe up to $50. A box for $150 and you get two good hits, which is unlikley, you lose money. Why is this, why doesn't the market regulate to reasonable prices? Thanks!

Also a question - What was the most expensive card you pulled. I once got a Mother's Day Joe Panik auto, which was awesome to get, very fun to pull a player you know of.
 
Jul 22, 2016
187
18
I mean. It has to be 1%. Even good cards are worth $10 give or take. Maybe up to $50. A box for $150 and you get two good hits, which is unlikley, you lose money. Why is this, why doesn't the market regulate to reasonable prices? Thanks!

Also a question - What was the most expensive card you pulled. I once got a Mother's Day Joe Panik auto, which was awesome to get, very fun to pull a player you know of.
You are correct probably. I like a few others open boxes for the sheer thrill of it and do not worry about money. I will sell but only to buy more cards. The reason the prices are high is the gambling aspect of it because when you can pull a card that can net you money for a car prices go up. Its not like a raffle where its all or nothing sometimes, you get something for your money. I understand the frustration of people because of the recent prices but thats the nature of it now.

Sent from my SM-T350 using Tapatalk
 

magicpapa

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
10,057
1,347
maxresdefault.jpg
 

death2redemptions

New member
Feb 4, 2016
12,488
0
The Carolina on the Southern side
Depends on how you plan to sell the cards you pull. For example, with Bowman products you could pull an auto worth $15-$20 at the time of your rip but if you hold for a couple years it could be in the $100+ range. Take Judge for example, a base auto in 2013 sold for $15-$20 but now it's a $1k card. I'd say Bowman gives you the best chance of making your money back, even if it's a simple rip and flip. From my experience when ripping/flipping a hobby case of Bowman (12 boxes) there will 1 or 2 boxes that will, at the very least, make your money back. Based on this I'd put the odds at 10-15% (with hobby). I'd say this seems to hold true with similar lower/mid-end products like franchise Topps (S1/S2/Update) & Heritage. There will generally be one or two boxes out of a case that will yield a return (or make your money back).

Please note: It's been 4 years since I regularly busted cases so it's possible it's become tougher to break even with the increasing price of wax. I'm basing those odds from when I ripped during 2010-2013. I still pick up a couple cases a year but back in the day I'd go through that much in a month so I paid more attention to the money spent.
 

mrmopar

Member
Jan 19, 2010
6,187
4,099
Now you see why Las Vegas exists! The thrill of the gamble and the CHANCE at the big hit that beats the odds, but the house always wins in the end!

I mean. It has to be 1%. Even good cards are worth $10 give or take. Maybe up to $50. A box for $150 and you get two good hits, which is unlikley, you lose money. Why is this, why doesn't the market regulate to reasonable prices? Thanks!

Also a question - What was the most expensive card you pulled. I once got a Mother's Day Joe Panik auto, which was awesome to get, very fun to pull a player you know of.
 

death2redemptions

New member
Feb 4, 2016
12,488
0
The Carolina on the Southern side
Actually base topps are his best performers.

Sent from my LG-H830 using Freedom Card Board mobile app

Yup, Bowman & franchise Topps (S1/2/Update) were always the products I purchased in large quantities because I could expect to make the money back.

The big issue with franchise Topps is that you end up having to spend an ungodly amount of time sorting and eventually it becomes unbearable. If I remember correctly Brent mentioned on BO that he has to hire people to do most of the sorting.
 

RStadlerASU22

Active member
Jan 2, 2013
8,881
11
Some people also collect cards for fun and not for profit too.... :)
Which is 100%, though opening wax where the risk of a large loss is higher then not, probably isn't the best route to spread the collecting money around.

Ryan
Will Clark / Mike Brown Collector
 

cgilmo

Well-known member
Administrator
Aug 6, 2008
37,213
35
Alpharetta, Georgia, United States
Yup, Bowman & franchise Topps (S1/2/Update) were always the products I purchased in large quantities because I could expect to make the money back.

The big issue with franchise Topps is that you end up having to spend an ungodly amount of time sorting and eventually it becomes unbearable. If I remember correctly Brent mentioned on BO that he has to hire people to do most of the sorting.
I imagine its mind numbing.

Sent from my LG-H830 using Freedom Card Board mobile app
 
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