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Thread: What are the odds on making money on a box?

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    Junior Member RagingAcid's Avatar
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    What are the odds on making money on a box?

    I mean. It has to be 1%. Even good cards are worth $10 give or take. Maybe up to $50. A box for $150 and you get two good hits, which is unlikley, you lose money. Why is this, why doesn't the market regulate to reasonable prices? Thanks!

    Also a question - What was the most expensive card you pulled. I once got a Mother's Day Joe Panik auto, which was awesome to get, very fun to pull a player you know of.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RagingAcid View Post
    I mean. It has to be 1%. Even good cards are worth $10 give or take. Maybe up to $50. A box for $150 and you get two good hits, which is unlikley, you lose money. Why is this, why doesn't the market regulate to reasonable prices? Thanks!

    Also a question - What was the most expensive card you pulled. I once got a Mother's Day Joe Panik auto, which was awesome to get, very fun to pull a player you know of.
    You are correct probably. I like a few others open boxes for the sheer thrill of it and do not worry about money. I will sell but only to buy more cards. The reason the prices are high is the gambling aspect of it because when you can pull a card that can net you money for a car prices go up. Its not like a raffle where its all or nothing sometimes, you get something for your money. I understand the frustration of people because of the recent prices but thats the nature of it now.

    Sent from my SM-T350 using Tapatalk

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    Those odds are very low, and that's coming from a guy who really enjoys checking out plain base cards...
    Currently looking for: 2012 Ultra football (1992 style) #31 Rudy and Gold parallel version of 2011 Bowman Platinum Chase Utley #94.

    Always looking for: 2008 BC Jake Peavy Orange Refractors /25, have 6 so far.

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    Senior Member tramers's Avatar
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    let me sell you some commons - only 750,000 in stock

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    Senior Member death2redemptions's Avatar
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    Depends on how you plan to sell the cards you pull. For example, with Bowman products you could pull an auto worth $15-$20 at the time of your rip but if you hold for a couple years it could be in the $100+ range. Take Judge for example, a base auto in 2013 sold for $15-$20 but now it's a $1k card. I'd say Bowman gives you the best chance of making your money back, even if it's a simple rip and flip. From my experience when ripping/flipping a hobby case of Bowman (12 boxes) there will 1 or 2 boxes that will, at the very least, make your money back. Based on this I'd put the odds at 10-15% (with hobby). I'd say this seems to hold true with similar lower/mid-end products like franchise Topps (S1/S2/Update) & Heritage. There will generally be one or two boxes out of a case that will yield a return (or make your money back).

    Please note: It's been 4 years since I regularly busted cases so it's possible it's become tougher to break even with the increasing price of wax. I'm basing those odds from when I ripped during 2010-2013. I still pick up a couple cases a year but back in the day I'd go through that much in a month so I paid more attention to the money spent.
    My junk >>>>> http://s822.photobucket.com/user/JDf...ds%20n%20stuff

    It's the teeth bro...it's gotta be the teeth...


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    Senior Member death2redemptions's Avatar
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    And the most expensive card I've ever pulled was this back in 2006:



    It feels like all the most expensive cards I've pulled were back in 2005-2008. You got much better returns from your wax back in those days.
    My junk >>>>> http://s822.photobucket.com/user/JDf...ds%20n%20stuff

    It's the teeth bro...it's gotta be the teeth...


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    Member mrmopar's Avatar
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    Now you see why Las Vegas exists! The thrill of the gamble and the CHANCE at the big hit that beats the odds, but the house always wins in the end!

    Quote Originally Posted by RagingAcid View Post
    I mean. It has to be 1%. Even good cards are worth $10 give or take. Maybe up to $50. A box for $150 and you get two good hits, which is unlikley, you lose money. Why is this, why doesn't the market regulate to reasonable prices? Thanks!

    Also a question - What was the most expensive card you pulled. I once got a Mother's Day Joe Panik auto, which was awesome to get, very fun to pull a player you know of.

  9. #9
    Junior Member RagingAcid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mrmopar View Post
    Now you see why Las Vegas exists! The thrill of the gamble and the CHANCE at the big hit that beats the odds, but the house always wins in the end!

    Vegas you lose 97% or something every spin. on average

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    Senior Member RStadlerASU22's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RagingAcid View Post
    Vegas you lose 97% or something every spin. on average
    Correct , but like he said, that doesn't stop people. Same w playing the lottery. A lot of wax is broken for the chance, nothing more.

    Ryan
    Will Clark / Mike Brown Collector
    ALWAYS LOOKING FOR ODDBALL, REGIONAL, TEAM ISSUED, VARIATIONS, AND TOUGH CARDS OF WILL CLARK AND MIKE BROWN



  11. #11
    Senior Member rebelpawn's Avatar
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    Some people also collect cards for fun and not for profit too....

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    Senior Member death2redemptions's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rebelpawn View Post
    Some people also collect cards for fun and not for profit too....
    Unheard of...
    My junk >>>>> http://s822.photobucket.com/user/JDf...ds%20n%20stuff

    It's the teeth bro...it's gotta be the teeth...


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    Senior Member AnthonyCorona's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rebelpawn View Post
    Some people also collect cards for fun and not for profit too....
    Yeah....nerds!

    Bring me your Bickford, Ryan McMahon, Senzatela and Peter Lambert cards
    Please note: Card collecting is my hobby, not my life. I don't take it that serious and like to keep it fun.

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    Administrator cgilmo's Avatar
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    With cards, unlike vegas if you open a critical mass it levels out.

    There is a reason Brent Williams makes the money doing this he does.
    Check out the FCB Community Sports Card Podcast
    Wanna host? PM Me! We would love to have YOU on the podcast.

  15. #15
    Senior Member death2redemptions's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cgilmo View Post
    With cards, unlike vegas if you open a critical mass it levels out.

    There is a reason Brent Williams makes the money doing this he does.
    Especially with Bowman
    My junk >>>>> http://s822.photobucket.com/user/JDf...ds%20n%20stuff

    It's the teeth bro...it's gotta be the teeth...


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