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2018 Organizational top 10 prospect lists (Running)

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bmp1971

Active member
Jun 8, 2010
5,712
1
New Hampshire
No doubt about it. Tatis Jr. came out of absolutely no where and I'd be shocked if he isn't a top 25 prospect. This system really bolstered their pitching options. Let's say if Espinoza totally flakes. You have Gore, Baez, Lucchesi, Allen, Quantrill, Lauer, Paddack (when healthy). I'd say that's quite good!

Very true. They might even grow a fan who buys Padres cards one day.
 

jbone17

Active member
Sep 26, 2008
6,756
42
The Riverlands.
Today: STL & TB


St. Louis Cardinals

1. Carson Kelly, C

Analysis: He’s the future backup to Yadier Molina, but Kelly offers some nice pop off the bench, aside from his above average defensive abilities

2. Jack Flaherty, RHP

Analysis: Flaherty got tagged in his brief appearances in the show, but the strikeout stuff is still there. He figures to play a big part on the 2018 Cardinals roster

3. Alex Reyes, RHP

Analysis: When healthy, he’s a top 10 prospect albeit his high walk rate. Reyes is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery and is not a gonner by any means

4. Magneuris Sierra, OF

Analysis: Sierra made his MLB debut, approximately two years ahead of schedule and hit .317 across 22 games

5. Jordan Hicks, RHP

Analysis: His walks are a bit higher than desired, but Hicks also threw a ton of ground balls and missed plenty of bats

6. Tyler O’Neill, OF

Analysis: Hitting for average isn’t in O’neill’s game, but he’s an extra base hit machine by logging 60 in 2017. The strikeouts remain his achilles heel.

7. Ryan Helsley, RHP

Analysis: Like Jordan Hicks, Helsley walked quite a bit. The latter was able to limit the damage by opponents only hitting .215 against him

8. Oscar Mercado, SS

Analysis: It was a resilient year for Mercado as he hit .287 while logging just as many extra base hits (37) as stolen bases (38)

9. Sandy Alcantara, RHP

Analysis: Alcantara had a fine season which earned him a few MLB appearances at the young age of 22. His control needs improvement, however

10. Dakota Hudson, RHP

Analysis: Opponents made some middle of the road contact against Hudson, but he also pitched to a gaudy 57.6% ground ball rate in Double A while limiting the damage to a 2.53 ERA

Tampa Bay Rays

1. Brent Honeywell, RHP

Analysis: Honeywell is not Tampa’s top prospect because he throws a screwball. He also has a mid 90s heater with excellent life, a curve, cutter, slider and changeup. This might be a big reason why Honeywell averaged 11.06 K per 9

2. Willy Adames, SS

Analysis: Adames came over to the Rays in the infamous 2014 David Price trade. Fast forward to now and with Tim Beckham gone, you’re looking at Tampa’s next shortstop for years to come

3. Brendan McKay, 1B/LHP

Analysis: The Rays are letting McKay hit and pith for now, but the prospect of both over the long term is unlikely. Regardless, the 2017 Golden Spikes winner is game for whatever

4. Wander Franco, SS

Analysis: It’s always a gamble ranking a guy who has never made his pro debut, but Franco offers plenty of loud tools for his size and has plenty of natural instincts

5. Jesus Sanchez, OF

Analysis: It was a nice year for Sanchez as he it .305 and popped 48 extra base hits

6. Jake Bauers, OF/1B

Analysis: Anytime you see a player with 45 extra base hits, 20 stolen bases and 78 walks, you know they’re doing something right

7. Chih-Wei Hu, RHP

Analysis: It was a rewarding season for Wei Hu as the Rays rewarded him with some MLB appearances. He figures to stick there in 2018

8. Garrett Whitley, OF

Analysis: Whitley began to put it together in 2017 as he stole 21 bases to go along with 57 walks and 35 extra base hits in 104 games. He must prove 2017 was no fluke as he moves up the ladder

9. Austin Franklin, RHP

Analysis: Walks plagued Franklin, but his 2.21 ERA proves that he wasn’t phased, while pitching to more than a K per inning. Franklin has a middle of the rotation ceiling

10. Brandon Lowe, 2B

Analysis: Lowe was an absolute freak in 2017 by amassing 54 extra base hits while hitting a solid .298 at Double A Montgomery. He has a low ceiling due to his average defensive abilities, but Lowe has some nice pop in that bat to become a future utility man in the show
 

WizardofOz1982

Well-known member
Sep 30, 2017
1,736
1,498
Oklahoma
Today: STL & TB


St. Louis Cardinals

1. Carson Kelly, C

Analysis: He’s the future backup to Yadier Molina, but Kelly offers some nice pop off the bench, aside from his above average defensive abilities

2. Jack Flaherty, RHP

Analysis: Flaherty got tagged in his brief appearances in the show, but the strikeout stuff is still there. He figures to play a big part on the 2018 Cardinals roster

3. Alex Reyes, RHP

Analysis: When healthy, he’s a top 10 prospect albeit his high walk rate. Reyes is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery and is not a gonner by any means

4. Magneuris Sierra, OF

Analysis: Sierra made his MLB debut, approximately two years ahead of schedule and hit .317 across 22 games

5. Jordan Hicks, RHP

Analysis: His walks are a bit higher than desired, but Hicks also threw a ton of ground balls and missed plenty of bats

6. Tyler O’Neill, OF

Analysis: Hitting for average isn’t in O’neill’s game, but he’s an extra base hit machine by logging 60 in 2017. The strikeouts remain his achilles heel.

7. Ryan Helsley, RHP

Analysis: Like Jordan Hicks, Helsley walked quite a bit. The latter was able to limit the damage by opponents only hitting .215 against him

8. Oscar Mercado, SS

Analysis: It was a resilient year for Mercado as he hit .287 while logging just as many extra base hits (37) as stolen bases (38)

9. Sandy Alcantara, RHP

Analysis: Alcantara had a fine season which earned him a few MLB appearances at the young age of 22. His control needs improvement, however

10. Dakota Hudson, RHP

Analysis: Opponents made some middle of the road contact against Hudson, but he also pitched to a gaudy 57.6% ground ball rate in Double A while limiting the damage to a 2.53 ERA

No Harrison Bader or Delvin Perez? Interesting.
 

jbone17

Active member
Sep 26, 2008
6,756
42
The Riverlands.
No Harrison Bader or Delvin Perez? Interesting.

These guys were basically 11 and 12 if I were to expand. Here's my rationale for both:

Bader

There's plenty to like about him due to his 20 homers and 15 stolen bases, but in the hitter-friendly PCL, I was a bit worried about his 118 strikeouts and how this will play at the MLB level. Also, there's no clear spot for him going forward with more advanced names on the pecking order: Fowler, Grichuk, Piscotty and J. Martinez.

Perez

The tools are certainly there, but Perez took a major step back for me in 2017. He was demoted to the GCL, following an argument with his coach for not hustling. As a whole in 34 contests, his slash line was cringe worthy .203 / .314 / .271. He needs to prove that 2017 was simply a sign of growing up and not something more sinister. Plenty of other folks in the business share this skepticism. I saw him play last year and he looked a bit lost.
 

jbone17

Active member
Sep 26, 2008
6,756
42
The Riverlands.
Today: The rest


Texas Rangers

1. Willie Calhoun, 2B/OF

Analysis: For starters, Calhoun had more extra base hits (64) than strikeouts (61). He also hit .300 and was rewarded with a promotion to the show

2. Leody Taveras, OF

Analysis: Taveras didn’t hit for much average in 2017, but he did everything else you would expect. With another year under his belt, his tools will speak for themselves

3. Cole Ragans, LHP

Analysis: In 57.1 innings, Ragans issued 35 free passes. That is ugly, but consider that he punched out 87 batters in those frames. If he can cut down on the walks, we’re looking at a frontline starter profile

4. Hans Crouse, RHP

Analysis: The jury is out on his ultimate ceiling, but one thing is for certain: Crouse misses bats. At worst, his floor is a back of the rotation stop gap

5. Bubba Thompson, OF

Analysis: He has a ridiculously long swing which could hinder consistent contact, but if all goes right, Thompson’s athletic frame provides plenty of optimism

6. Yohander Mendez, LHP

Analysis: Mendez walked quite a bit and surrendered 23 long balls, but his electric fastball and advanced changeup will allow him to stick in the show in some capacity

7. Chris Seise, SS

Analysis: The speed, athleticism and above average defensive skills Seise possesses are encouraging, but the bat must catch up. At worst, he could be a nice utility man in the future

8. Ronald Guzman, 1B

Analysis: Guzman had a nice year in the hitter friendly PCL, but there’s not much else to his overall game

9. Ariel Jurado, RHP

Analysis: Jurado is a workhorse as he logged 157.0 innings, but the strikeout stuff isn’t there due to a lacking breaking ball. Odds are he’s a future reliever going forward due to opponents hitting .302 against him

10. Kyle Cody, RHP

Analysis: He walked a tick above average, but Cody was able to limit the damage by pitching to a 2.64 ERA at two levels


Toronto Blue Jays

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B

Analysis: This guy isn’t one the game’s top prospects solely because of his namesake. Across two levels, the 18 year old hit .323 and had more walks (76) than strikeouts (62) in 437 registered at bats. That’s quite scary, considering he has a chance to open 2018 as a 19 year old in Double A

2. Bo Bichette, SS/2B

Analysis: The jury is still out on his defensive profile, but when you hit .362 across two levels, which includes 59 extra base hits and 22 stolen bases, teams will find spot for you. He also makes a strong case to open 2018 alongside Guerrero Jr. in New Hampshire

3. Anthony Alford, OF

Analysis: Alford made his MLB debut in May of 2017, only to be put on the shelf with a broken hamate bone. When healthy, Alford is a dynamic player and has a strong chance to stick full time in 2018 due to the departure of Jose Bautista

4. Nate Pearson, RHP

Analysis: He’s a starter for now, but if the Jays commit him to a full-time bullpen role, Pearson has a chance to see the majors quickly

5. Ryan Borucki, LHP

Analysis: Borucki punched out more than a K per inning while amassing a heavy ground ball rate. With an advanced changeup, he figures to compete for a starting rotation job in 2018

6. Logan Warmouth, SS

Analysis: He makes plenty of contact and has solid defensive skills across the board. His floor is a future utility man

7. Danny Jansen, C

Analysis: Jansen took off in 2017 by hitting .323 across three levels. More impressive than that, in 368 registered at bats, he tallied more walks (41) than whiffs (40)

8. Edward Olivares, OF

Analysis: Olivares popped 17 homers and tallied 10 triples in 2017. To go along with his athletic frame and advanced speed, there’s plenty of ceiling here

9. Riley Adams, C

Analysis: The 2017 3rd rounder had a nice pro debut by hitting .305 to go along with his advanced plate discipline

10. Zach Jackson, RHP

Analysis: Jackson issued plenty of free passes in 51.0 innings, but his fastball / curve combo is essentially big league ready to go along with a gaudy .175 average against. He just needs to learn control


Washington Nationals


1. Victor Robles, OF

Analysis: With Werth on his way out, the Nationals fan base turns their attention to Robles. There’s a good chance he opens 2018 in Triple-A Syracuse, but the tools are off the charts which could force another MLB stint in a hurry

2. Juan Soto, OF

Analysis: Soto was destined to be Victor Robles 2.0 before an injury ended his season, but don’t sleep on this guy. His ceiling is stratospheric

3. Carter Kieboom, SS

Analysis: Injuries limited him to 61 games, but Kieboom has plenty of loud tools to make things interesting

4. Erick Fedde, RHP

Analysis: The jury is still out, but Fedde will be a full time big leaguer eventually due to his heavy ground ball rate and strikeout stuff

5. Seth Romero, LHP

Analysis: Plenty of teams avoided Romero due to his immaturity, but when you offer three above average pitches and miss bats, teams are willing to take a gamble

6. Wil Crowe, RHP

Analysis: Crowe had a fine pro debut in 2017. He offers four pitches and three of them are above average. If he can throw his changeup more consistently, there’s a good chance he meets a #3-4 starter ceiling

7. Daniel Johnson, OF

Analysis: If Bryce Harper stays in town and if Robles and Soto match their projected ceilings, Johnson will be the odd man out. It’s a good problem to have, though as Johnson had a .207 ISO in 2017 to go along with his well above average defense and running abilities

8. Andrew Stevenson, OF

Analysis: So many outfielders, so little positions to fill. Stevenson plans to stick around if Robles isn’t ready to take over the reigns

9. Raudy Read, C

Analysis: Some seasoning in Triple-A is needed, but Read popped 17 homers and hit .273 last season. There’s plenty to like about his game

10. Luis Garcia, SS/2B

Analysis: Garcia might not hit for power, but he flashes well above average tools in almost every other category. The jury is out on his future position, but all he needs to do is keep hitting
 
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WizardofOz1982

Well-known member
Sep 30, 2017
1,736
1,498
Oklahoma
These guys were basically 11 and 12 if I were to expand. Here's my rationale for both:

Bader

There's plenty to like about him due to his 20 homers and 15 stolen bases, but in the hitter-friendly PCL, I was a bit worried about his 118 strikeouts and how this will play at the MLB level. Also, there's no clear spot for him going forward with more advanced names on the pecking order: Fowler, Grichuk, Piscotty and J. Martinez.

Perez

The tools are certainly there, but Perez took a major step back for me in 2017. He was demoted to the GCL, following an argument with his coach for not hustling. As a whole in 34 contests, his slash line was cringe worthy .203 / .314 / .271. He needs to prove that 2017 was simply a sign of growing up and not something more sinister. Plenty of other folks in the business share this skepticism. I saw him play last year and he looked a bit lost.

Thanks for the rationale. You seem to value whether a prospect has a spot in the franchise higher than talent to an extent. When I rank teams I lean toward talent over availability of a roster spot. Trades happen and will likely happen this offseason. It wouldn't shock me to see Bader in a Marlins uniform next season. I'd probably bump Mercado for Bader, because I'm not sure Mercado's bat is for real. He's been lost for four years and was drafted as a glove first guy. Bader has hit everywhere he's gone from high school on so I'm less worried about his bat than Mercado's. Mercado has the defensive edge because he can really go get it in the outfield but if his bat ends up being more Shane Robinson than Frank Robinson he's a fourth outfielder at best.
 

jbone17

Active member
Sep 26, 2008
6,756
42
The Riverlands.
Thanks for the rationale. You seem to value whether a prospect has a spot in the franchise higher than talent to an extent. When I rank teams I lean toward talent over availability of a roster spot. Trades happen and will likely happen this offseason. It wouldn't shock me to see Bader in a Marlins uniform next season. I'd probably bump Mercado for Bader, because I'm not sure Mercado's bat is for real. He's been lost for four years and was drafted as a glove first guy. Bader has hit everywhere he's gone from high school on so I'm less worried about his bat than Mercado's. Mercado has the defensive edge because he can really go get it in the outfield but if his bat ends up being more Shane Robinson than Frank Robinson he's a fourth outfielder at best.

Not in all cases regarding the first point. I have Estevan Florial number 2 on my Yankees list, where there's no guarantee he will have a spot due to a high K rate and potential outfield logjam. I have Jay Groome number 2 for Boston, when Sam Travis might take over the first base job from Moreland. I have Victor Caratini on my Cubs list as the top guy when he has no clear path, whereas Alzolay and Albertos might have a better chance as pitchers.

Mercado made it for me simply because it was a breakout season when in the past, he was pitiful. This is more of a compliment to his current production, than overall ceiling which is not as high as other prospects. This season will be key for him to prove he's not a fluke, but I have confidence he's shaken off the rust.
 

Jaypers

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
48,898
1,378
IL
Boston Red Sox

3. Daniel Flores, C

Analysis: This ranking might be premature, but if all comes together, Boston has found it’s Francisco Mejia


Sorry. :(

Alex Speier‏ @alexspeier
Awful news: Red Sox CEO/president Sam Kennedy says highly regarded Red Sox catching prospect Daniel Flores died due to complications from cancer. Story shortly at http://bostonglobe.com .
 

jbone17

Active member
Sep 26, 2008
6,756
42
The Riverlands.
Atlanta's, Boston's and Seattle's lists have been updated to reflect trades and recent news. Spoiler: One of them is Maitan
 
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