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Thread: J-UP back to Angels for 5 years, $106M

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    J-UP back to Angels for 5 years, $106M

    Upton, who quietly had a monster season, renews with Angels instead of Opting out.

    5 years, $106 Million with FULL no-trade clause.

    Wise move by him IMO...

    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/260461...year-contract/
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    Obviously it is 106 million but I don't see how this makes sense unless he just really like playing there.

    He's actually losing a bit of money AAV wise from the deal he already had in place for the next four years. It also seems below market at 21.2 million a year for a 30 year old coming off a great year. Cespedes was a year older when he signed his 4 yr/$110 million last offseason and had been injured off and on for a couple seasons.
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    Quote Originally Posted by gt2590 View Post
    Upton, who quietly had a monster season, renews with Angels instead of Opting out.

    5 years, $106 Million with FULL no-trade clause.

    Wise move by him IMO...

    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/260461...year-contract/
    He's definitely not worth that kind of cheddar IMO.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jbone17 View Post
    He's definitely not worth that kind of cheddar IMO.
    Even with the "new math" of the crazy numbers that have been paid the last 2 Off-seasons?
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    Quote Originally Posted by jbone17 View Post
    He's definitely not worth that kind of cheddar IMO.
    5 fWAR last year at $9 million per WAR (last season's number before inflation) is $45 million. It's a below market deal.
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    Quote Originally Posted by WizardofOz1982 View Post
    5 fWAR last year at $9 million per WAR (last season's number before inflation) is $45 million. It's a below market deal.
    WAR is such an awful statistic. Upton is a nice player, but 20 million per for a guy that's been solid, not great. They're going to regret this contract like their other long term signs.
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    What ever happened to the: Six Million Dollar Man.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nosterbor View Post
    What ever happened to the: Six Million Dollar Man.
    That'll get you a nice middle reliever or a below average utility guy.

    Or the entire A's or Padres infield!
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    Quote Originally Posted by WizardofOz1982 View Post
    5 fWAR last year at $9 million per WAR (last season's number before inflation) is $45 million. It's a below market deal.
    When did it go so high? Last I remember it was valued at roughly $7 million but it's been awhile since I've checked.

    Regardless, when it comes to putting a dollar value of a player's contract you've got to predict what they will do for however long the contract is inked. Justin Upton put up a 5 fWAR in 2017 but the only other time he's put up a 5+ fWAR was six years ago in 2011. I'd consider his 2017 season an exception and I would not expect that for the next five years. From 2012-2016 his WAR remained between 1.3-3.9 & he's averaged roughly 3 fWAR per season (11 seasons/32.8 fWAR) so I'd be assuming at most 15 fWAR for the next 5 seasons, not 25. Especially since you have to put into account a player generally regresses around the age 32-34 seasons.

    So if putting a value based solely on WAR he's closer to a 21-27 million dollar player for the next five years which is close enough to the contract.

    IMO putting a dollar value based on WAR is better utilized when lower market teams are assigning contracts to non superstar type players in an attempt to get the most for their money. If you take a look at some of the contracts the superstars are getting and then compare it to their average WAR at the time of the signing you'd assume almost all were getting underpaid. For instance, Jason Heyward. Everyone was screaming the Cubs overpaid but if you were to assign a dollar value on him based on his WAR then the Cubs got a steal. At that point in his career he was averaging roughly 4.5-5 fWAR per season up until 2015 which valued him at 31-35 million (which would mean he actually deserved 250-280 million for 8 years). There is no way he deserves that sort of money and imagine if they had given that much money for what he's actually done with the Cubs.

    So yeah, I hate using WAR to assign a dollar value on top tier players.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jbone17 View Post
    WAR is such an awful statistic. Upton is a nice player, but 20 million per for a guy that's been solid, not great. They're going to regret this contract like their other long term signs.
    As a method for tiering players and assigning comparable value it doesn't matter if you think WAR is flawed or not because it measures everyone with the same stick (save catchers for whom it is lacking).

    Is Upton better than Chris Davis? Is he better than Jason Heyward? How about Jose Reyes or Joe Mauer? All four of those guys are making as much or more AAV and only Heyward is younger. Upton is quite a bit better than J.D. Martinez who is going to get a bigger contract this offseason most likely.

    I agree with you that it seems insane to be paid $20+ million a year to play baseball but that's what the market can bear right now for well above average players like Upton. #5 starters and 4th outfielders are getting $12-15 million a year nowadays.
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    Quote Originally Posted by gt2590 View Post
    Upton, who quietly had a monster season
    Quite the exaggeration. I'd hardly call .273 with 35 homers and 109 rbi a monster season in a year of record offense.
    18 players hit more home runs than Upton.
    Upton was very good, but Stanton, Judge, Altuve, JD Martinez, etc. had monster seasons.
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    Quote Originally Posted by death2redemptions View Post
    When did it go so high? Last I remember it was valued at roughly $7 million but it's been awhile since I've checked.

    Regardless, when it comes to putting a dollar value of a player's contract you've got to predict what they will do for however long the contract is inked. Justin Upton put up a 5 fWAR in 2017 but the only other time he's put up a 5+ fWAR was six years ago in 2011. I'd consider his 2017 season an exception and I would not expect that for the next five years. From 2012-2016 his WAR remained between 1.3-3.9 & he's averaged roughly 3 fWAR per season (11 seasons/32.8 fWAR) so I'd be assuming at most 15 fWAR for the next 5 seasons, not 25. Especially since you have to put into account a player generally regresses around the age 32-34 seasons.

    So if putting a value based solely on WAR he's closer to a 21-27 million dollar player for the next five years which is close enough to the contract.

    IMO putting a dollar value based on WAR is better utilized when lower market teams are assigning contracts to non superstar type players in an attempt to get the most for their money. If you take a look at some of the contracts the superstars are getting and then compare it to their average WAR at the time of the signing you'd assume almost all were getting underpaid. For instance, Jason Heyward. Everyone was screaming the Cubs overpaid but if you were to assign a dollar value on him based on his WAR then the Cubs got a steal. At that point in his career he was averaging roughly 4.5-5 fWAR per season up until 2015 which valued him at 31-35 million (which would mean he actually deserved 250-280 million for 8 years). There is no way he deserves that sort of money and imagine if they had given that much money for what he's actually done with the Cubs.

    So yeah, I hate using WAR to assign a dollar value on top tier players.
    The spikes in contracts the last two offseasons have pushed it that high. It was $7.7 million in 2015, roughly $8.5 million last year, and using the 5% inflation figure everyone in the industry uses you get $8.93 million so roughly $9 million per. I wouldn't be surprised if it is higher since inflation has been more than 5% for the last few seasons.

    Aging curves after the steroid era have actually been pretty flat. Guys come into the league, maybe get a bit of a bump in year 2 or 3, and then stay there until their late 30s, if they play that long. The way that Jason Heyward has cratered is historically unheard of. You might expect a 10-15% decline from ages 32-34 but that's negligible, especially since it is basically offset by annual inflation.

    You can't just throw away the 5 fWAR that Upton had this year and current results weight heavier than the past when doing projections like this. I haven't really done a projection for him moving forward but it would probably look something like ~3.5, 3.2, 3.0, 2.6 over the next four years so ~12.3 fWAR. That would be $31.5, $30.3, $29.77, and $27.1 million in value by year for a total of $118.67 million using very conservative fWAR and inflation estimates (5% yearly). It wouldn't surprise me if it's actually more like 4.5, 4.2, 3.8, 3.0 over the next four years. That would be ~$149 million in value. I think at worst it's a slightly below market contract with potential to be a very good value.
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    Quote Originally Posted by WizardofOz1982 View Post
    As a method for tiering players and assigning comparable value it doesn't matter if you think WAR is flawed or not because it measures everyone with the same stick (save catchers for whom it is lacking).

    Is Upton better than Chris Davis? Is he better than Jason Heyward? How about Jose Reyes or Joe Mauer? All four of those guys are making as much or more AAV and only Heyward is younger. Upton is quite a bit better than J.D. Martinez who is going to get a bigger contract this offseason most likely.

    I agree with you that it seems insane to be paid $20+ million a year to play baseball but that's what the market can bear right now for well above average players like Upton. #5 starters and 4th outfielders are getting $12-15 million a year nowadays.
    I'm a huge fan of sabermetrics. I like to use all the available statistics I can to measure a player's value. I'm just not a big fan of using it to predict free agent signings of top tier players and here's the reason why in a nutshell: no team has ever handed out more than $35 million per year which these days is the equivalent of 4 WAR (until now I assumed 5 WAR) per season. So it becomes a crap shoot at predicting contracts of those 4+ WAR per season players. They all (based on WAR) may be worth that much in dollar value but they are not equal in their performance based value.

    But I understand what you are getting at. Whether or not J-Up is worth more or less $20 million per season (despite what stat you use to come to that conclusion) based on the contracts being handed out these days, one would assume he could probably get more than that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Austin View Post
    Quite the exaggeration. I'd hardly call .273 with 35 homers and 109 rbi a monster season in a year of record offense.
    18 players hit more home runs than Upton.
    Upton was very good, but Stanton, Judge, Altuve, JD Martinez, etc. had monster seasons.
    True, in context it looks less impressive, but in a normal year, I'd say "monster" is appropriate...
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    Quote Originally Posted by death2redemptions View Post
    I'm a huge fan of sabermetrics. I like to use all the available statistics I can to measure a player's value. I'm just not a big fan of using it to predict free agent signings of top tier players and here's the reason why in a nutshell: no team has ever handed out more than $35 million per year which these days is the equivalent of 4 WAR (until now I assumed 5 WAR) per season. So it becomes a crap shoot at predicting contracts of those 4+ WAR per season players. They all (based on WAR) may be worth that much in dollar value but they are not equal in their performance based value.

    But I understand what you are getting at. Whether or not J-Up is worth more or less $20 million per season (despite what stat you use to come to that conclusion) based on the contracts being handed out these days, one would assume he could probably get more than that.
    I actually agree it is a fool's errand to try to predict free agent contract amounts based on WAR projections. All it takes is one idiot owner to blow up the market in any given offseason, a la the Albert Pujols contract. That in turn will affect future offseason, even though you have to treat each offseason as its own economical environment.

    It's a fair tool for determining how bad a contract is though once it is signed and there is some value in that for predicting what comparable players will likely get. It is just really hard to compare it year to year because the market is so different every time.
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