So far we are at 42.9% ballots posted and players seem to be falling into a few categories:

75% needed for election
5% for survival

Locks-
Chipper Jones (1st ballot) 98.4%
Vlad Guerrero 94.5%
Jim Thome (1st ballot) 93.4%

Very Close-
Edgar Martinez 80.8%
Trevor Hoffman 78.0%
Mike Mussina 73.6%

Doubtful-
Curt Shilling 66.5%
Barry Bonds 65.4%
Roger Clemens 65.4%

RIP-
Johnny Damon 1.6%
Johan Santana 1.6%
Andruw Jones 5.5%