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Wow. In it for the long haul, Theo is.
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I'm thinking the Brewers' pursuit of Jake has just intensified.
Let the dominoes fall. Finally.
Or StL
Based on my advanced calculations, that comes to roughly $21 million per year.
I know, I know I'm probably the most intelligent person on this entire site for solving such an advanced equation but I can't take all the credit. During the solving process I had some help from a special algorithm that allowed me to figure it out a couple hours earlier than expected.
But in all seriousness I think this was a solid move by the Cubs, although it's a little lengthy for a pitcher of Darvish's age who has a history of injuries. Still, the price point is right for a guy who will consistently put up 3-5 fWAR a season and assuming he stays healthy, we shouldn't see any major regression until the final couple years (age 36 & 37 seasons) of the contract.
His underlying stats have been showing significant regression for a couple years. He's a pumpkin waiting for midnight.
Even if he has a good couple years in there, the overall deal is not worth it IMO...
IMO 95% of the 5+ year *free agent* contracts end up being a bust.
I honestly can't think of one that was ever worth it but I'm sure there may be one or two that I have either forgotten about or a debate could be made which is why I left open a 5% possibility.
His underlying stats have been showing significant regression for a couple years. He's a pumpkin waiting for midnight.
Pass.
Wow. In it for the long haul, Theo is.
death2redemptions said:Based on my advanced calculations, that comes to roughly $21 million per year.
I know, I know I'm probably the most intelligent person on this entire site for solving such an advanced equation but I can't take all the credit. During the solving process I had some help from a special algorithm that allowed me to figure it out a couple hours earlier than expected.
Has there been reporting that the contract was straight-line? It could be one of those back-loaded contracts so it's less money in the early years and more money in the later years rendering your algorithm useless.
I am looking at his numbers and I am not seeing regression currently, just slightly different results. Is there something in particular that jumps out to people about Darvish? I'm looking at this as a solid signing by the Cubs for how their club is currently structured. They do not have any young arms banging on the door to enter the rotation at the top end. Is Darvish likely to regress toward the later years of this contract? Likely yes, but he is not currently regressing.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo....rtDate=03/30/2007&endDate=02/11/2018&s_type=2