Welcome to our community

Be apart of something great, join today!

YU DARVISH SIGNS WITH THE CUBS (6Y/$126M)

Disclaimer: Links on this page pointing to Amazon, eBay and other sites may include affiliate code. If you click them and make a purchase, we may earn a small commission.

Jaypers

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
48,895
1,378
IL
I'm thinking the Brewers' pursuit of Jake has just intensified.

Let the dominoes fall. Finally.
 

swish54_99

Well-known member
Dec 12, 2012
1,160
221
Was hoping they wouldn't go over 5 years, but probably had to include the 6th to get him over Milwaukee/Dodgers/Twins.
 

death2redemptions

New member
Feb 4, 2016
12,488
0
The Carolina on the Southern side
Based on my advanced calculations, that comes to roughly $21 million per year.

I know, I know I'm probably the most intelligent person on this entire site for solving such an advanced equation but I can't take all the credit. During the solving process I had some help from a special algorithm that allowed me to figure it out a couple hours earlier than expected.


But in all seriousness I think this was a solid move by the Cubs, although it's a little lengthy for a pitcher of Darvish's age who has a history of injuries. Still, the price point is right for a guy who will consistently put up 3-5 fWAR a season and assuming he stays healthy, we shouldn't see any major regression until the final couple years (age 36 & 37 seasons) of the contract.
 

WizardofOz1982

Well-known member
Sep 30, 2017
1,733
1,498
Oklahoma
Based on my advanced calculations, that comes to roughly $21 million per year.

I know, I know I'm probably the most intelligent person on this entire site for solving such an advanced equation but I can't take all the credit. During the solving process I had some help from a special algorithm that allowed me to figure it out a couple hours earlier than expected.


But in all seriousness I think this was a solid move by the Cubs, although it's a little lengthy for a pitcher of Darvish's age who has a history of injuries. Still, the price point is right for a guy who will consistently put up 3-5 fWAR a season and assuming he stays healthy, we shouldn't see any major regression until the final couple years (age 36 & 37 seasons) of the contract.

His underlying stats have been showing significant regression for a couple years. He's a pumpkin waiting for midnight.
 

WizardofOz1982

Well-known member
Sep 30, 2017
1,733
1,498
Oklahoma
IMO 95% of the 5+ year *free agent* contracts end up being a bust.

I honestly can't think of one that was ever worth it but I'm sure there may be one or two that I have either forgotten about or a debate could be made which is why I left open a 5% possibility.

Scherzer is likely to break even at minimum. Matt Holliday's 7 year deal with the Cardinals provided a ton of surplus value. Those two are about it.
 

swish54_99

Well-known member
Dec 12, 2012
1,160
221
I completely agree that those length of deals almost never work out towards the end. However, if we win another World Series...or two...or three...during his contract, then it doesn't matter. We Cubs fans would be a lot more upset with losing Gleyber Torres, but we don't win a WS without Chapman. Say what you want about him running out of gas in Game 6 & 7, we don't even get to those games with Rondon as closer. Same thing could be said with losing Eloy Jimenez, as long as we win one with Quintana on the roster, it's worth losing two of the best prospects in the game. I would imagine Angels fans would say the same thing about the long term Pujols contract.
 

rsmath

Active member
Nov 8, 2008
6,086
1
Wow. In it for the long haul, Theo is.

Darvish probably won't play all 6 years with the Cubs. What longterm contract player (outside of those rare single-team life'rs) have played their long term contract without retiring or being traded before the longer term contract was finished?

death2redemptions said:
Based on my advanced calculations, that comes to roughly $21 million per year.

I know, I know I'm probably the most intelligent person on this entire site for solving such an advanced equation but I can't take all the credit. During the solving process I had some help from a special algorithm that allowed me to figure it out a couple hours earlier than expected.

Has there been reporting that the contract was straight-line? It could be one of those back-loaded contracts so it's less money in the early years and more money in the later years rendering your algorithm useless. ;)
 

sbib

New member
Aug 17, 2008
215
0
6 years is a bit too long - plus it puts them up against the luxury tax limit - the young guys are all going to start making more money in arbitration in the next few years - they will need to win another one soon to take advantage of the players they have locked up
 

WCTYSON

Well-known member
Nov 3, 2014
7,364
171
I am looking at his numbers and I am not seeing regression currently, just slightly different results. Is there something in particular that jumps out to people about Darvish? I'm looking at this as a solid signing by the Cubs for how their club is currently structured. They do not have any young arms banging on the door to enter the rotation at the top end. Is Darvish likely to regress toward the later years of this contract? Likely yes, but he is not currently regressing.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo....rtDate=03/30/2007&endDate=02/11/2018&s_type=2
 

death2redemptions

New member
Feb 4, 2016
12,488
0
The Carolina on the Southern side
I am looking at his numbers and I am not seeing regression currently, just slightly different results. Is there something in particular that jumps out to people about Darvish? I'm looking at this as a solid signing by the Cubs for how their club is currently structured. They do not have any young arms banging on the door to enter the rotation at the top end. Is Darvish likely to regress toward the later years of this contract? Likely yes, but he is not currently regressing.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo....rtDate=03/30/2007&endDate=02/11/2018&s_type=2

I haven't noticed any regression from him yet. In each of his full seasons (excludes 2016 which was half a season) he has produced a 3.5+ fWAR, including 2017. There was a slight uptick in his FIP/ERA last year due to an increase in his HR/9 but his strikeout and walk rates remained roughly the same as in seasons past (okay, maybe a strikeout less per 9 but still remained double digits). If someone is basing their theory of regression on his win/loss totals then they'd simply be wrong. Outdated stats as such should be banished, or at the very least ignored.

I think the price point per year of his contract is pretty spot on. 3.5 fWAR is worth slightly more than the average of $21 million per year & I do believe he'll continue to outperform that value the first few years of the contract...if he stays healthy. There will be regression of course in the final couple years of that contract but my biggest concern would be his health. I'd have the same concern with any other pitcher who has suffered a previous TJ surgery.

Personally I think it's a good signing for the Cubs, especially if he avoids any further injury complications. When compared to other free agent contracts of top flight (#1/#2) starters it really isn't far off at all. Like any of these 5+ year contracts fans will begin complaining towards the final couple years of the signing or he'll be traded around to various other teams in contention hoping he'll make a comeback.
 

Members online

Latest posts

Top