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Starting Pitchers you believe are destined for the HOF

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death2redemptions

New member
Feb 4, 2016
12,488
0
The Carolina on the Southern side
Baseball is back and with all the excitement I thought I'd kick it off with an opinion piece. I was curious to hear who (if anyone) among the active starters you believe will end up in the HOF. I currently have a list of 3...

1. Justin Verlander 188-114, 3.46 ERA (3.47 FIP) 2545 IP 2416 K/771 BB, 1.18 WHIP (56.9 WAR)
Reasons why: He just turned 35 but he's revitalized his career these last couple seasons and I could see 4-5 seasons left in him. He needs 582 strikeouts to reach the 3k mark which pretty much makes any pitcher a shoe-in for the Hall (unless your name is Curt Schilling). If he can average just 150 strikeouts for 4 more years or 120 in 5 he'll accomplish that goal and I see no reason why he couldn't reach those numbers assuming there isn't a career ending injury or TJ surgery that gets in the way. We'll obviously see a regression in his numbers at some point but he's rediscovered his strike out stuff (200+ k's in 2016/2017) so averaging 150 k for 4 more years isn't asking too much.

2. Max Scherzer 141-75, 3.30 ERA (3.25 FIP) 1897 IP 2149 K/534 BB, 1.12 WHIP (44.6 WAR)
Reasons why: 3 Cy Young Awards, finishing top 5 in the last 5 seasons. Has also gone at least 200 IP with 200+ strikeouts the last five seasons. Incredible career 4.02 strikeout to walk rate & 10.2 K/9. Similarly to JV has a pretty good shot at 3k strikeouts assuming he isn't plagued with injuries down the road. Pitched two no-hitters in a single season and struck out 20 batters in a single game. Randy Johnson is the only other pitcher who has a no-hitter & 20 strikeout game.

3. Clayton Kershaw 144-64, 2.36 ERA (2.60 FIP) 1935 IP 2120 K/507 BB, 1.00 WHIP (57.4 WAR)
Reason why: 3 Cy Young Awards, 7 200+ strikeout seasons, leads all active pitchers in career ERA, FIP, WHIP, H/9 & win%. I believe if he suffered a career ending injury right now he'd still make it to the HOF. His career numbers are just as good (possibly even better) than those of Sandy Koufax.

Dark Horses:
C.C. Sabathia - Overall his numbers aren't exactly mind blowing however he is just 154 strikeouts short of 3,000 & if he can reach that total then he'd at the very least have to be in the HOF discussions.
Felix Hernandez - If I created this thread two years ago he would be one of my candidates but as he's been riddled with injuries his stats have seen relatively poor these last couple seasons. Still, I wouldn't count him out just yet. Maybe he'll pull a JV and make a run at that 3,000 strikeout milestone as he isn't that far off. His other career stats are also extremely solid including a 3.20 ERA & 3.35 FIP.
Zack Greinke - He doesn't have any long stints in his career where he's been the best in the game but his career numbers are still very solid. They are actually similar to Justin Verlander's but with a couple hundred less strikeouts


Feel free to completely disagree with some of my choices or add some names of your own, after all this is an opinion piece. In the spirit of the regular season looming right around the corner I'd like to get some good ol fashioned baseball conversations going!
 

MojoDan

Active member
Aug 22, 2008
30,348
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Check out CC’s stats among left handed pitchers. He has a strong case. I think better than most realize.

Agree with top 3.
 

WCTYSON

Well-known member
Nov 3, 2014
7,364
171
I think all six of your picks end up in the HOF. And for my dark horse picks: Kimbrel, Chapman and Jansen.

Then for pitchers that can get there with enough time would be: Sale, Strasburg and Bumgarner. I would place Kluber here but at his age, not sure he has enough time.
 

WCTYSON

Well-known member
Nov 3, 2014
7,364
171
Sorry, I know this is for SP only but then I guess my picks that could get there would be my dark horse picks. Please don't lash me.
 

death2redemptions

New member
Feb 4, 2016
12,488
0
The Carolina on the Southern side
Check out CC’s stats among left handed pitchers. He has a strong case. I think better than most realize.

Agree with top 3.

I often get spit whenever I bring up the case for C.C. making the Hall so it's a nice change of pace to hear someone agree with me. A couple years ago many people thought his weight would bring about too many injuries for him to reach 3,000 strikeouts but he's kept on trucking. I feel 3,000 k's is an inevitability if we can get just a couple more seasons out of him (with at least 200 IP combined). And you are right, he's a lefty specialist.

I think all six of your picks end up in the HOF. And for my dark horse picks: Kimbrel, Chapman and Jansen.

Then for pitchers that can get there with enough time would be: Sale, Strasburg and Bumgarner. I would place Kluber here but at his age, not sure he has enough time.

All very good picks, especially Bumgarner. Corey Kluber was sort of a late bloomer but if he ends up as one of those pitchers who age like fine wine (Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, etc.) he could certainly have at least a shot.

WCTYSON said:
Sorry, I know this is for SP only but then I guess my picks that could get there would be my dark horse picks. Please don't lash me.

One day in mama's basement per each relief pitcher mentioned should be sufficient punishment. Let it be known that Fox news & Sean Hannity on the radio will be playing 24/7. Rush Limbaugh's Two If By Tea will be the only beverage available to drink. DO NOT attempt to touch Trumpy Bear's hair. Mama just got herself a new AK for hunting elk and she will not hesitate to use it.

You may think I'm joking around but there is truth to most of it. When I visit my mom she'll generally have some soda too but Two if by Tea is the drink of choice.

Phil bickford, peter Lambert and Jon Duplantier

Sent from my LG-TP450 using Tapatalk

Duplantier & Bickford certainly make sense but Peter Lambert?? C'mon man, that's a bit of a stretch. ;)
 

bstanwood

Well-known member
Sep 24, 2016
3,666
332
Mystic, CT
Kershaw and Verlander should be first ballot. Scherzers case is there, he's in for me another two seasons like he has had and he should be a first ballot shoe in as well.

I think CC makes it but it takes a few years for everyone to remember his entire career. I think Felix faded too early he will need a couple more years of above average production to get his numbers up, his days off being a true ace are over. Greinke is tough for me, I don't think he has the numbers or the place in people's minds where he screams HOF, however he still has time and he has consistently been among the top tier of pitchers. He can make it. Most others for me it's too early for or it's over.

I'm interested to see what kind of support Colon gets. He's been a back end starter for so long now it's easy to forget how good he was when he was young. I think his ability to stay in the bigs for soooooo long in this day and age should count for something. To me he's in the first tier that is out of the HOF but he is an interesting case.
 

death2redemptions

New member
Feb 4, 2016
12,488
0
The Carolina on the Southern side
Kershaw and Verlander should be first ballot. Scherzers case is there, he's in for me another two seasons like he has had and he should be a first ballot shoe in as well.

I think CC makes it but it takes a few years for everyone to remember his entire career. I think Felix faded too early he will need a couple more years of above average production to get his numbers up, his days off being a true ace are over. Greinke is tough for me, I don't think he has the numbers or the place in people's minds where he screams HOF, however he still has time and he has consistently been among the top tier of pitchers. He can make it. Most others for me it's too early for or it's over.

I'm interested to see what kind of support Colon gets. He's been a back end starter for so long now it's easy to forget how good he was when he was young. I think his ability to stay in the bigs for soooooo long in this day and age should count for something. To me he's in the first tier that is out of the HOF but he is an interesting case.

I feel the same way about Greinke. In fact, I almost didn't even include him among the dark horse candidates. I've always considered him as more of a #2 starter type with a couple elite seasons under his belt in which he overperformed but when I went to look at his career stats as a whole I had second thoughts. His career 3.40 ERA & 3.35 FIP are rather exceptional and while he was never a big strikeout guy, he does have six 200+ K seasons along with what I'd consider to be excellent control (career 2.2 BB/9). I think his candidacy will depend on how well he performs during the golden years of his career.

I never really considered Bartolo although I'd be lying if I were to say I wasn't surprised to see that he had accumulated nearly 2,500 strikeouts. He's always had elite control and has racked up an impressive win total but it's the ERA/FIP/WHIP numbers that turn me off a bit.
 

bstanwood

Well-known member
Sep 24, 2016
3,666
332
Mystic, CT
Bartolo has transformed from feared ace to joke to fan favorite, it's quite a career, once he's been out of the game I hope there is a terrific book written on him cause I want to read it.
Greinke and many others candidacy will ultimately be determined how voting shift to "today's" pitching standards. 300 wins is out what is the "new standard"? 225? 250? I know the new age sees wins an irrelevant stat but surely it won't go away completely. Innings pitched is changing greatly with bullpen use. Someone like a greinke or a Chris Sale that hits 200 or even 300k and consistently tops 200ips might look more outstanding in the years to come.
The changing pitching landscape and mindset will be really interesting when the votes come up in the next 5-10 years.

Sent from my [device_name] using Freedom Card Board mobile app
 

Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
9,446
168
I posted this in a thread early last season.... since then, Scherzer, Sale, Greinke, Verlander and Sabathia helped their causes, while the rest did not (Kershaw IMO is a lock regardless, though last season didn't hurt).

I'd add Kluber to the discussion since he's been great in 3 of the last 4 seasons, but he needs a lot in the way of longevity.


PITCHERS

The previous era was either one with a dearth of great pitchers, or we may need to rethink what a HOF pitcher is. This will be clearly illustrated by comparing how many hitters are already HOF-worthy and/or are on their way...


Locks (HOF if they retired today)

Clayton Kershaw - Buster Olney wrote an article saying Kershaw is an HOF without throwing another pitch. I've long felt that Johan Santana deserves far more HOF consideration than anyone else seems to think for his short but dominant peak. Kershaw already has a longer and more dominant peak than Santana has. Despite just 8 full seasons (and parts of 2 more), Kershaw is a HOFer

2-3 more seasons needed

CC Sabathia - Only Bartolo Colon and Sabathia have more than 200 career wins (among active players). W-L % over .600. Cy Young winner. Career ERA is not very impressive (3.71) but if he can reach 250 wins (he has 228 now) I think he might warrant consideration
Justin Verlander - Last season's 2nd-place finish in the Cy Young was a welcome sight. 170+ wins, Cy Young and ROY awards in his trophy chest.


3-5 more seasons needed

Zack Greinke - Cy Young. Overall very solid pitcher who had 2 transcendent seasons (including a season with a 1.66 ERA which he did not win the Cy Young). If he has 3 more great seasons and passes 200 homers I think he has a reasonable shot
Felix Hernandez - Seems like he's been pitching forever but he's just 31. Cy Young, 2-#2 finishes. Been roughly a league-average pitcher the last couple of seasons. Needs to reinvent himself and have a few more really solid seasons to be considered.
Jon Lester - Cancer survivor, big part of the Red Sox and Cubs Championships. Has really come into his own over the last few seasons as 2014 and 2016 were arguably his 2 best seasons.
Max Scherzer - 2 Cy Young Awards (in the last 4 seasons). Was basically a .500 pitcher until 27, so he has some catching up to do, but he's been great for half a decade now.
David Price - Won a Cy Young and 2 other top-2 finishes but entering his 31 season he only has 121 wins (with just 65 loses.) Probably needs 5 really solid seasons before real consideration.

Great Start

Chris Sale - Career ERA under 3. 5 straight All-Star Games and 5 straight seasons with a top 6 finish in Cy Young voting (although he's never finished top-2). Great start to this season, but doesn't even have 80 wins, so he's a long way away.
Madison Bumgarner - Career ERA under 3. 100 wins at age 27. Dominant playoff resume.
 

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