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Thread: Justin Upton

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    Justin Upton

    Just took a look at Justin Upton's stats and had a few thoughts:

    1) Anything think Upton could be the next Adrian Beltre? Top prospect who started at a really young age, that was somewhat underwhelming for years and then put it together. Upton is just 30 but already has 1,488 hits and 260 home runs. 3,000 hits and 500 home runs is definitely not out of the realm of possibility. In 2017 he had his highest OPS, and hitting in a lineup with Trout, Ohtani, Pujols etc. means that he can slide under the radar

    2) If Upton plays long enough to approach those numbers, he'll almost certainly set the K record. He already has 1,569 (Reggie holds the record at 2,597)

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    Senior Member JVHaste's Avatar
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    The biggest difference between Beltre and Upton is Beltre is an amazing fielder. I can't think of any infielder defensively this good for this long besides Ozzie Smith.

    Second difference is Beltre really really messed up going to Seattle for his age 26-30 seasons. The old park dimensions were just brutal for RHHs. (the fence has been pulled in since then) He hit a career high 48HR in LA the year before and who knows how many leaving cost.


    As for the K record I think a lot of people are going to break it. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if in 25 years Reggie isn't even in the top 10!

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    Senior Member WCTYSON's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Topnotchsy View Post
    Just took a look at Justin Upton's stats and had a few thoughts:

    1) Anything think Upton could be the next Adrian Beltre? Top prospect who started at a really young age, that was somewhat underwhelming for years and then put it together. Upton is just 30 but already has 1,488 hits and 260 home runs. 3,000 hits and 500 home runs is definitely not out of the realm of possibility. In 2017 he had his highest OPS, and hitting in a lineup with Trout, Ohtani, Pujols etc. means that he can slide under the radar

    2) If Upton plays long enough to approach those numbers, he'll almost certainly set the K record. He already has 1,569 (Reggie holds the record at 2,597)
    Can he get to those benchmark numbers? It's possible if you project his 162 game career averages from his current 30 year old season thru to age 40 but not likely because of aging. Baseball Reference has his player comparison thru age 29 as Ruben Sierra, which is exactly when Sierra started having years of injury issues. If Upton is able to play another healthy 8-10 years, he will put up some interesting numbers and he will likely eclipse 3,000 K's.

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    Going by SO Rates, these are the guys to watch:

    Trout, Age 26: 153 SO per 162
    Upton, Age 30: 168 SO per 162
    Bryant, Age 26: 168 SO per 162
    Stanton, Age 28: 189 SO per 162
    Judge, Age 26: 219 SO per 162
    Gallo, Age 24: 219 SO per 162
    Sano, Age 25: 249 SO per 162

    Reggie Jackson: 149 SO per 162


    Extrapolating the rates out toward the end goal of 2598 Strikeouts, here is the pace on which those guys will break the record:

    Trout: Game 2751
    Upton: Game 2505
    Bryant: Game 2505
    Stanton: Game 2227
    Judge: Game 1922
    Gallo: Game 1922
    Sano: Game 1691

    Reggie Jackson: Game 2820
    Last edited by crowhop; 04-25-2018 at 01:09 PM.
    All off-topic, all the time.


    "The fastball is the best pitch in baseball. It's like having five pitches, if you move it around."
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    Administrator cgilmo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by crowhop View Post
    Going by SO Rates, these are the guys to watch:

    Trout, Age 26: 153 SO per 162
    Upton, Age 30: 168 SO per 162
    Bryant, Age 26: 168 SO per 162
    Stanton, Age 28: 189 SO per 162
    Judge, Age 26: 219 SO per 162
    Gallo, Age 24: 219 SO per 162
    Sano, Age 25: 249 SO per 162

    Reggie Jackson: 149 SO per 162
    So of those names Trout probably has the longest career.
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    It's hard to say who'll end up the all time Strikeout Jester, but I doubt it'll so straightforward. The game changes too quickly for the way things are today to be the way they'll be in 10 years.

    Trout, for instance, has played in 949 games to this point. If his SO Rates remain the same going forward, he'll need another 1802 Games to complete the feat. That's over 11 Seasons of perfect health and holding steady at his 0.943 SO per Game clip.

    Gallo is a interesting because through 25 Games this season his SO Rate is down to 1.16 Per Game. That's a lot, but not nearly at his 1.373 SO per Games coming into the season. That saves him 34.5 SOs per 162 Games Played. Over ten years, that's 350 SOs. Aaron Judge's SO Rate is also down this season in a very similar way. Both players are on pace to Strikeout fewer than 200 times over 162 Games this year.

    Sano is the real outlier here. His Rates are extraordinary, but he's never played more than 116 Games in a season and it would surprise no one to see him physically break down well before he is able to get close to the record. Also, how long with the Twins or anyone else allow a guy to Strikeout twice a game?
    All off-topic, all the time.


    "The fastball is the best pitch in baseball. It's like having five pitches, if you move it around."
    Luis Tiant

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    Quote Originally Posted by Topnotchsy View Post
    Just took a look at Justin Upton's stats and had a few thoughts:

    1) Anything think Upton could be the next Adrian Beltre? Top prospect who started at a really young age, that was somewhat underwhelming for years and then put it together. Upton is just 30 but already has 1,488 hits and 260 home runs. 3,000 hits and 500 home runs is definitely not out of the realm of possibility. In 2017 he had his highest OPS, and hitting in a lineup with Trout, Ohtani, Pujols etc. means that he can slide under the radar

    2) If Upton plays long enough to approach those numbers, he'll almost certainly set the K record. He already has 1,569 (Reggie holds the record at 2,597)
    I actually like Upton's chances of to break the SO record. His contract with the Angels ends in 2022 (5 more seasons) and, assuming he stays the rest of his contract, he'll be very close to the record. At his current rates, he needs 7 Seasons to do it. If he slides to DH when Pujols retires and the game stays the way it is today, he'll be the first to break it.

    He has no shot at 3000 Hits unless he picks up the pace in a major way or plays into his 40s. He needs 1510 hits and he's averaging at his peak only 150 per season.
    I think 430 HRs, 2500 Hits, somewhere around 2900 SOs is probably where he ends up.
    All off-topic, all the time.


    "The fastball is the best pitch in baseball. It's like having five pitches, if you move it around."
    Luis Tiant

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