1987 Donruss Opening Day #163A Barry Bonds ERR J.Ray ||| 1990 Topps #414A Frank Thomas ERR NNOF

I asked this on another board and it was there that I read the community here is among the most knowledgeable, so... 25, 50, or 100 years from now, which baseball card from the 1980s and 1990s will turn out to be the rarest, most coveted, and therefore most valuable: 1987 Donruss Opening Day #163A Barry Bonds ERR J.Ray or 1990 Topps #414A Frank Thomas RC ERR No Name on Front? I'm talking about the card that will in the distant future garner the most attention and the largest (biometric nanobot) wallets. Scans from PSA's site are below. The top card of an era should have the following traits: general scarcity, scarcity of high grade examples, high demand, elite player quality, and historical importance.

General Scarcity
The two rarest cards of note from the junk wax era of 1987-1993 are the Bonds and Thomas rookie year error cards. The print runs of these two cards are miniscule in an absolute sense. But compared to the most valuable high-grade RCs spanning both decades - like Rickey Henderson's 1980 Topps RC, or Mark McGwire's 1985 and Roger Clemens' 1985 Topps Tiffany RCs, or Derek Jeter's 1993 SP RC - the print runs of the Bonds and Thomas errors are downright microscopic. And values have to catch up to that fact even if it takes the better part of another century. The Griffey Upper Deck RC is in high demand, of an elite player, and a titan in the hobby, but the sheer number of copies out there, over 1,000,000 in all likelihood, takes it out of the running like most cards from the era, ergo the junk reputation.

High-Grade Scarcity
If a card is scarce in any condition, you can bet it's even more rarified in mint condition. Let's use PSA's population report to get a feel for grade distribution and how high-grade instances of each card are selling today. We'll take PSA 10s into account but there is so much variance in population count and unpredictably steep premiums at that grade. PSA 9s and 8s are probably more useful data points.

Bonds, out of 124 submitted so far
PSA 8 (Pop. 50): $700
PSA 9 (Pop. 39): $1000
PSA 10 (Pop. 13): $4000

Thomas, out of 191 submitted so far
PSA 8 (Pop. 92): $5000
PSA 9 (Pop. 19): $15,000
PSA 10 (Pop. 1): $50,000

Henderson, out of 17,756 submitted so far
PSA 8 (Pop. 8477): $50
PSA 9 (Pop. 1819): $350
PSA 10 (Pop. 21): $25,000

Clemens, out of 1322 submitted so far
PSA 8 (Pop. 609): $100
PSA 9 (Pop. 580): $250
PSA 10 (Pop. 44): $4000

McGwire, out of 1421 submitted so far
PSA 8 (Pop. 756): $125
PSA 9 (Pop. 528): $275
PSA 10 (Pop. 33): $5000

Jeter, out of 13,806 submitted so far
PSA 8 (Pop. 8353): $275
PSA 9 (Pop. 568): $3000
PSA 10 (Pop. 22): $50,000

Demand/Player Quality/Historical Significance
In Frank's favor
Iconic
True RC
Topps
Pulled from wax packs
Card is worth way more today
More condition sensitive - No Thomas BGS 9.5s or 10s yet. Ten "true" Bonds BGS 9.5s (thirty-seven overall) and one BGS 10.
More popular player then and now
Correct player pictured
Not widely suspected of PED use
In Barry's favor
Fewer specimens in existence?
More 10s mean more chaseable ideal examples
HOF delay depresses current value
Prevailing modern attitude about PED legacy depresses current demand
General dislike of the player depresses current demand
Will be appreciated for being the far better player by future generations
Better-looking card design
Higher res photography

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Ok, so at the end of this list, it really looks like you have to give it to the NNOF. Many of the arguments favoring Bonds are a reach; one is a question. The hobby was a strange one growing up. It's probably no less strange today. Everyone adored Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, and Juan Gonzalez. They pretty much ignored everyone else. Maybe that will stand the test of time. But I just can't believe that a rookie year error (and possibly the scarcest) card, of the best player of his generation, won't eventually find its way into the good graces of the baseball card collecting community in a major way.

Random questions/thoughts
Did I leave out any obvious contenders?
How many total examples of Thomas and Bonds errors do you think actually exist?
How many have yet to be pulled from unopened packs and boxes?
Do you have any good stories to tell about either these cards?

Discuss but please resist the temptation to rail on about steroids unless it applies directly to the crux of this post.

Thanks!

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To me it's the nnof. More popular player and there was such a mystique surrounding the nnof when it first came out.

I'd say the NNO Thomas as well.

And although I'm a Rickey/A's fan and have a 10 on my "dream list", I'd say the Jeter because of his Yankee legacy and the chipping issues.

Has to be the Jeter.
The Thomas card has a total graded 8-10 of 112. Pop 1 PSA 10. total graded that's 0.80% graded as a PSA 10
The Jeter card has a total graded 8-10 of 8943. Pop of 22 PSA 10. total graded that's 0.25% graded as a PSA 10

So the Jeter Is more than 3 times as rare as a Thomas as a PSA 10

Also the Bonds, McGwire, and Clemens Only came in sets. Much easer to get a better graded card.
I remember busting boxes of 93 SP when they first came out. Even fresh and not sitting around, the cards stuck together. I stopped buying after 7 boxes.

I collected Bonds growing up and always saw him as a vastly superior player than frank. Frank was more popular then and certainly is now. Steriods ruined any chance Bonds had at claiming a higher spot in hobby popularity. I still have a decent chunk of my childhood collection, it's modest by any comparison, but for a kid with no money i did well, and I treasured every card. On occasion I look through some of my favorite cards and just wonder what could have been and why he felt he needed to go down that road.
I'm taking a major tangent here but I think it all helps explain why the Frank, the Jeter or several others will always top the Bonds.
I grew up with a couple friends who collected but we had three main player collections, A Griffey, a Frank and me, Bonds. Back then I enjoyed knowing that if all three were in a set I'd likely have to pay or trade the least for the book value but it always infuriated me that he never garnered the hobby notoriety, when I started really collecting he had just won his third MVP! What more could he do!? I realized when I still collected him it was because of his attitude, he was arrogant, even a jerk. I'd always make excuses but looking back that's all they were, he was born into baseball greatness and acted like it was hit right to be the best. I firmly believe he started the juice because of ego, he couldn't stand to watch McGwire and Sosa get all that attention in that magical summer, so Bonds hit the lab, the the gym, he lost most of a whole season because he bulked up so fast his muscles couldn't take it, then they adjusted and he added a whole extra "prime" to his career, he cheated baseball and the fans.
For all those reasons, even if he had the most scarce card he will never have the most coveted/expensive card.