Top 'Investment' Cards of the Modern/Junk Wax Era

sierra79 · Jul 9, 2017

I've never been one to look at cards as a sound longterm investment - especially in the modern era. For me collecting is mainly a hobby, not that I wouldn't want to see what I collect go up in $, or at rhe least hold it's value. However, I thought it would be fun to 'speculate' on modern cards, specifically those produced from 1981 to 1992 (During the period of true mass production and right before premium cards took over the hobby).

Anyways, just for fun (or for $), here are my top 5 picks of what I think could break in price point over the coming years in order:

1. 1990 Topps NNOF Frank Thomas
(It's rare, wasn't a gimmick, and is a rookie card of a HOFer)

2. 1987 Donruss Opening Day Barry Bonds Error
(Another truly rare card that wasn't a gimmick, and again a rookie card. While Bonds has been tainted with the whole PED thing, I think it's becoming more likely that he will make the HOF at some point. Regardless of what collectors think of him, he will always be enshrined in baseball history just like shoeless Joe and Pete Rose - without the lifetime ban of course. I think there is a lot of potential growth and upside in this card).

3. 1990 Topps George Bush USA
(Glossy or pack inserted regular versions, these comvined are super rare. They also have a president who, whether you like him or not directly and by extension of 43, indirectly influenced world history. The crazy thing is that there are two cards on this list associated with 1990 Topps).

4. 1992 Score The Franchise Musial/Mantle/Yastrzemski Auto #'d/500
(Wasn't the first back inserted auto but IMO it set the standard and used gold ink/marker, which I believe will hold up much better over time as many of the other autos from this time are fading away. Also, having a certified Mantle auto that stands out amongst the sea of questionable ones is cool).

5. 1991 Topps Desert Shield Chipper Jones RC
(Limited print run, RC card of a hall of famer, and tied to a historical period in world history).

I didn't include any proof/test issues (aqueous or '85 Minis). Anyways, just curious as to what everyone else thinks.

cgilmo · Jul 9, 2017

Graded gem copies of any hall of famer RC from the era with low pops will appreciate over time.

It's GOING to happen

It won't matter that there are a ton of the base card.

smapdi · Jul 10, 2017

Assuming we're talking about ~1987-1992, the Tiffany/Glossy editions of key RCs seem OK, if unspectacular. Score Glossies of Glavine, Biggio, and Alomar could see growth over time as people collect HOF RCs and whatnot. Griffey doesn't need help, but even his "junk" could continue to rise over time. Randy Johnson, Pedro, and Thome, seem sorely undervalued. Thome is in on his first HOF ballot next year, I believe, and I think he's a likely 85+% lock. That should surely make his cards worth more than $1, even Bowman and UDFE.

sierra79 · Jul 10, 2017

smapdi said:
Assuming we're talking about ~1987-1992, the Tiffany/Glossy editions of key RCs seem OK, if unspectacular. Score Glossies of Glavine, Biggio, and Alomar could see growth over time as people collect HOF RCs and whatnot. Griffey doesn't need help, but even his "junk" could continue to rise over time. Randy Johnson, Pedro, and Thome, seem sorely undervalued. Thome is in on his first HOF ballot next year, I believe, and I think he's a likely 85+% lock. That should surely make his cards worth more than $1, even Bowman and UDFE.

What is your take on Mcgwire or more so Clemens and their '85 Topps Tiffany in terms of a resurgence in interest? I ask that since with Bagwell and Pudge getting in the HOF and a changing demographic of the baseball writers taking shape it seems likely that some of the PED tarnished players may (especially those who never admitted to it) get in After all.

Also, I think the Chipper DS RC stands out more than the Tiffany in high grade simply due to the nature of the condition of that set as apposed to the factory sealed cards.

sierra79 · Jul 10, 2017

cgilmo said:
Graded gem copies of any hall of famer RC from the era with low pops will appreciate over time.

It's GOING to happen

It won't matter that there are a ton of the base card.

I do agree that gem mint 10 rookie cards will likely appreciate over time, however in an age of multiple card companies producing pallet upon pallets of cards, that has to impact the population of 10's floating around.

Case in point - Frank Thomas' 1990 Topps RC slabbed in a PSA 10 holder which often brings less than 20 bucks on eBay st auction. There are over 1900 of those graded a PSA 10 with countless others tucked away in cases of that stuff. So, I guess what I'm looking for are examples that would not only rise in value over time in high grade, but any grade as well. I think those types of cards stand a much more likely chance of seeing an exponential break in value over the next 15 to 25 years, simply because they will truly stand out as being rare in an Era where rare didn't typically exists.

cgilmo · Jul 10, 2017

Yeah, high pops won't spike like that.

The low pop condition sensitive stuff will fetch a premium even if its in the junk wax era.

phillyfan0417 · Jul 10, 2017

if you can find some 1986 topps baseball to bust you can do well if you gem the stars...

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-Topps-...224592&hash=item51f96c422d:g:fNQAAOSw42JZMdJ-

cgilmo · Jul 10, 2017

Good luck with gems on 86. Super tough

Sent from my LG-H830 using Freedom Card Board mobile app

phillyfan0417 · Jul 10, 2017

cgilmo said:
Good luck with gems on 86. Super tough

Sent from my LG-H830 using Freedom Card Board mobile app

for sure!

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

smapdi · Jul 10, 2017

Everything is cyclical, and cards are no exception, though once down, it's a lot harder for things to come back up again, especially if someone has long since retired. Baseball writers seemed to have no problem with the 90s home run races as it filled a lot of easy column inches writing about all these amazing feats. It also gave them easily-filled column inches to write about how the record books got tarnished (or finger-stained or whatever metaphor extension is most apt). So I won't be surprised if and when Bonds, McGwire, Clemens, Sosa, and even Palmeiro get elected someday. After all, none of them except Palmeiro actually had a positive, publicly announced failed test, I think was the deal? Or even if they did, now that we have some distance, appreciation for their accomplishments within their own context seems appropriate. I believe all these guys more or less have a line you can draw through their stats that marks where PEDs started, and would have been elected based on production up to that point, plus whatever natural decline added to it. Or at least they'd have been very strong candidates and the subject of spirited, long-lived debate.

I'd be bullish on Tiffany versions of McGwire et al, but they're already pretty high in premium condition. A PSA 10 McGwire Tiffany sold for $5100, I assume legitimately, although the bidding looks like an unfortunate collision between 2 people who thought their $5000 bids would easily win. If one or the other hadn't bid, it would have sold for $2150. Nines go for ~$500. But considering what Chrome autos of today's A-ballers can sell for right out of the pack, the old-timey curmudgeon in me thinks that guys who have already had the career these newbies aspire to have has to justify some pricing equality.

For Chipper, Tiffany is by far the better option, IMHO. I don't think anyone knows how much Desert Shield Topps was made. I saw one estimate that said 3,000-4,000 cases, another of 6,000-7,000 cases. That's somewhere between 30,000-90,000+ copies potentially. Yes, a lot of those cards don't exist anymore, or aren't in good shape or whatever, but supposedly the large majority of them never left the US and went straight into the hobby. Tiffany, while available in a boxed set and presumably easier to grade, was printed in a lot smaller quantity. Print run is apparently not known, but likely a half that of DS, given what is known for other years. Not that DS Chipper is bad, and things could reverse themselves, but current auction results point to Tiffany being the pick. Further complicating things is the amount of counterfeiting with DS cards. There have been fakes found in slabs from all companies, so a lot of people might be avoiding them.

sierra79 · Jul 10, 2017

smapdi said:
Everything is cyclical, and cards are no exception, though once down, it's a lot harder for things to come back up again, especially if someone has long since retired. Baseball writers seemed to have no problem with the 90s home run races as it filled a lot of easy column inches writing about all these amazing feats. It also gave them easily-filled column inches to write about how the record books got tarnished (or finger-stained or whatever metaphor extension is most apt). So I won't be surprised if and when Bonds, McGwire, Clemens, Sosa, and even Palmeiro get elected someday. After all, none of them except Palmeiro actually had a positive, publicly announced failed test, I think was the deal? Or even if they did, now that we have some distance, appreciation for their accomplishments within their own context seems appropriate. I believe all these guys more or less have a line you can draw through their stats that marks where PEDs started, and would have been elected based on production up to that point, plus whatever natural decline added to it. Or at least they'd have been very strong candidates and the subject of spirited, long-lived debate.

I'd be bullish on Tiffany versions of McGwire et al, but they're already pretty high in premium condition. A PSA 10 McGwire Tiffany sold for $5100, I assume legitimately, although the bidding looks like an unfortunate collision between 2 people who thought their $5000 bids would easily win. If one or the other hadn't bid, it would have sold for $2150. Nines go for ~$500. But considering what Chrome autos of today's A-ballers can sell for right out of the pack, the old-timey curmudgeon in me thinks that guys who have already had the career these newbies aspire to have has to justify some pricing equality.

For Chipper, Tiffany is by far the better option, IMHO. I don't think anyone knows how much Desert Shield Topps was made. I saw one estimate that said 3,000-4,000 cases, another of 6,000-7,000 cases. That's somewhere between 30,000-90,000+ copies potentially. Yes, a lot of those cards don't exist anymore, or aren't in good shape or whatever, but supposedly the large majority of them never left the US and went straight into the hobby. Tiffany, while available in a boxed set and presumably easier to grade, was printed in a lot smaller quantity. Print run is apparently not known, but likely a half that of DS, given what is known for other years. Not that DS Chipper is bad, and things could reverse themselves, but current auction results point to Tiffany being the pick. Further complicating things is the amount of counterfeiting with DS cards. There have been fakes found in slabs from all companies, so a lot of people might be avoiding them.

The counterfeiting issue is one of the main things that concerns me with DS in the sense that with stamping it simply means rest am ping can be replicated over and over until reaching virtual perfection. As you stated there is the issue of having less condition issues with the Tiffany but at fix amount and a small overall population, a psa 10 sounds pretty solid. With that, I'll have to go with a TiffanY over the DS.

Which Tiffany RC would you think, from all years would accelerate in price more so in the longterm?

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Top 'Investment' Cards of the Modern/Junk Wax Era

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