michaelstepper
Well-known member
Nothing against Dunn, if he got 500hr it doesn't outweigh the 25,000 strike outs he'll have.
Welcome to our community
Be apart of something great, join today!
First five years of Bowman Chrome: how many future HOFers?
- Thread starter BBCgalaxee
- Start date
Disclaimer: Links on this page pointing to Amazon, eBay and other sites may include affiliate code. If you click them and make a purchase, we may earn a small commission.
Austin
Well-known member
If former all-time saves leader and the most intimidating closer in baseball, Lee Smith, can't come close to making the Hall of Fame, then I don't think Rodriguez has a chance.
Closers are usually just considered failed starters, and 90% of the time they are.
When the Top 20 all-time career saves list includes forgetful names like Rob Nenn, Roberto Hernandez, Francisco Cordero, Jose Mesa, Todd Jones, Rick Aguilera and Randy Myers, the number of saves a closer gets doesn't seem like a big deal.
I mean, Bobby Thigpen was the season saves leader with 57 before Rodriguez broke it. Bobby Thigpen.
Eric Gagne had seasons of 55 and 52 saves. Jim Johnson also broke 50 twice. Rod Beck had 51. Randy Myers 53.
Does anyone consider them superstars or even borderline Hall of Famers?
This year's AL saves leaders are Greg Holland, Fernando Rodney, David Robertson and Glen Perkins.
Any decent or even below average starting pitcher can save a game.
Last edited:
C'mon now. Bobby Thigpen and Eric Gagne are't comparable and didn't put together the body of work anywhere near what K-Rod has. You can toss those comparisons to support that point right out the window.
The single season record will only help him with his track record. That's the point. What Lee Smith did in 18 seasons, Rodriguez is nearing in his 13th. If he gets to his 18th season and closes the whole time he'll surpass smith most likely.
Last, whether a closer is just a failed starter is a separate issue. Let's see if they bring that up when Hoffmann and Rivera are eligible.
Austin
Well-known member
Lee Smith closed in a time when 40 save seasons were rare had had only been done a few times.
Now there are several players doing it and common guys like Jim Johnson topping 50 twice.
I know you're biased as a Brewers fan, but I just don't think Rodriguez has had or will have a HoF-worthy career. He's only had 40+ saves four times (the great Jose Valverde has had three) and if you compare career stats by year, he's only marginally better than closers like Randy Myers and all of those other closers I listed.
Remember, it's the writers voting for the Hall of Fame, and they don't give a **** about closers unless they're groundbreaking (Wilhelm, Fingers, Sutter, Gossage) or incredibly dominant, especially in the postseason (Rivera and Eckersley).
Rodriguez has absolutely no shot, and I believe it will be awhile before Hoffman makes it, since he's considered by many to be a compiler (only led in saves two years).
Last edited:
Brewer Andy
Active member
- Aug 10, 2008
- 9,634
- 21
Somebody dig into WHIP on these guys
This is absurd. You know people are really reaching when they start talking about Adam Dunn's career batting average. He's posting his best OBP number this season as a member of the White Sox and is sitting at .346 .... while that's not remarkable it's still good for 25th in the AL and he's not getting as much playing time as in recent seasons because Abreu, Viciedo, and Konerko are sharing ABs. He will most certainly beyond a shadow of a doubt be playing baseball next season and is still one of the better DH options available when you look at the fact that people are falling all over themselves for guys who don't get on base nearly as much as Dunn. Better OBP than Chris Carter, Nelson Cruz and David Ortiz this season. Moss, Donaldson, Pujols, Davis, Dozier.... pretty much all the big bats. If he had been able to get his 100+ ABs he missed this season because of the Paul Konerko retirement tour he probably would be sitting firmly in the low 20's in HRs like he would be most years around this time. Like it or not, he's still an incredibly viable option at DH and although he makes too much money right now, he's not the liability that many would have you believe. It's ridiculous in this day of advanced stats that people would lean so heavily on batting average when it's a pretty elementary way to evaluate a player's value at the plate. 2nd to only Pujols among active players in HRs from players that aren't suspected or confirmed juicers.
Go ahead and negate the fact that his .237 career batting average is joined by a .365 career OBP. The list of players behind him would make you double take. He's still a positive offensive WAR player with a lot of power in his bat. I have always considered Dunn offensively to be a poor man's Jim Thome. We'll see what Dunn does with the 3 or 4 years he has left as an exclusive DH option. I think he gets 500 pretty easily if he decides he wants to play for it.
Austin
Well-known member
So you say ignore his .237 career batting average (HOF voters won't ignore it) and look at his .365 career OBP?
Dunn ranks 346th all-time in career OBP, behind recent legends Chris Hoiles, Ben Grieve, Corey Koskie and a couple hundred other scrubs who have to buy a ticket to the Hall of Fame.
Here's the list:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_perc_career.shtml
Sure he's ranked ahead of a few Hall of Famers, but if you're making the argument that his OBP is so high that it cancels out his horrible batting average, then that's not true.
And as for being among the league leaders in OBP, Dunn has never been higher than 9th in his league.
And I still think this is Dunn's last year. Who's going to sign a 35-year-old DH who hits .210 and Ks 200 times, while only hitting 20-25 homers, and makes $15 million?
Who cares if he walks a lot. He's too slow to score from first on a double and gets held up when a normal player could have scored from second on a single. Yes, he's a liability.
Last edited:
Juan Gris
Well-known member
Thank you for saving me the time!
Adam Dunn has had 6,777 at bats, which is:
3,957 more than Hoiles had in his career (2,820)
3,562 more than Grieve had in his career (3,215)
3,378 more than Koskie had in his career (3,399)
Add in the fact that Dunn is 52 walks away from the combined total of Hoiles/Grieve/Koskie and Dunn has 64 more home runs than the 3 of them combined and you have a pretty stellar comparison! :wink:
All The Hype
Active member
Unless some new development comes out that he used PEDs (which there currently is not evidence of), Pujols has to be one of the easiest first ballot locks of the last 30 years.
Why? 10 consecutive years of .300+/30+/100+ to start his career, 3 MVPs (which arguably could have been 5 if Bonds hadn't cheated), 500 HR (probably 600+ by the time he's done), likely 3000 hits by the time he retires, and a career average that will likely end up close to or above .300.
Otherwise I agree with your post that Ichiro and Pujols are the only HOF locks, with probably 3-5 borderline guys who may or may not make it.
Why? 10 consecutive years of .300+/30+/100+ to start his career, 3 MVPs (which arguably could have been 5 if Bonds hadn't cheated), 500 HR (probably 600+ by the time he's done), likely 3000 hits by the time he retires, and a career average that will likely end up close to or above .300.
Otherwise I agree with your post that Ichiro and Pujols are the only HOF locks, with probably 3-5 borderline guys who may or may not make it.
Austin
Well-known member
Those are just three names among the 345 ahead of Dunn that I picked because they were next to Dunn. There are dozens and dozens of other players with full careers ahead of Dunn in OBP who are considered inferior players.
That's not the point. I was just contradicting Vagrant's point that OBP makes a player great.
My point is, walks and OBP don't matter to Hall of Fame voters. That's the purpose of this thread.
Dunn was once an excellent player, with all of those consecutive 40 homer seasons and looked like a future Hall of Famer.
But the fact is, his .200 batting average the last few years has killed any shot he had.
It doesn't matter if you and Vagrant and sabermatricians think batting average doesn't matter.
What matters is that Hall of Famers do care, and they won't elect a player with a .237 batting average into the HoF.
Last edited:
- Thread starter
- #32
BBCgalaxee
Well-known member
- Sep 9, 2011
- 6,475
- 59
It's obvious that making any hall of fame is insanely remote, but ponder this.
Between all the bowman and bowman chrome base sets and draft sets issued from 93-03, there's only 3 first ballot HOF rookie cards despite thousands of rc's in those products.
Between all the bowman and bowman chrome base sets and draft sets issued from 93-03, there's only 3 first ballot HOF rookie cards despite thousands of rc's in those products.
RStadlerASU22
Active member
- Jan 2, 2013
- 8,881
- 11
Yet people still prospect greatly. It would be an amazing look if someone were to calculate the % drop of say the top 25 selling prospects from each year at their peak selling prices vs today.
Ryan
Juan Gris
Well-known member
You can compare the stats of inferior players to many HOF's, especially when the HOF player's body of work is twice as large (pun intended for Dunn). I happen to think Dunn's HR's, walks and OBP may be enough to get him in someday. Has that day come? No, but I wouldn't write him off today.
Crewfan82
New member
- Apr 21, 2009
- 1,243
- 0
I see a lot of mention of Beltre, but a guy from the same BC release has had a very similar career. I think Aramis could be right there as well. You wouldn't think it but their career stats almost match one another with the exception of hits. This came up during a recent Brewers broadcast, and I was surprised because you don't think of Aramis in that conversation.
Aramis actually carries a better career BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS. I think in the end Aramis's durability issues causing him to play a couple less seasons worth of games when compared with Beltre will give Beltre the edge if comparing head to head.
Not sure either guy has a realistic shot.
My locks are Ichiro, Albert, and Halladay.
Aramis actually carries a better career BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS. I think in the end Aramis's durability issues causing him to play a couple less seasons worth of games when compared with Beltre will give Beltre the edge if comparing head to head.
Not sure either guy has a realistic shot.
My locks are Ichiro, Albert, and Halladay.
Juan Gris
Well-known member
The 2-run home run Dunn hit 20 minutes after this post just inched him a tiny bit further.
