Toughest Odds To Pull

Dilferules · Apr 15, 2014

DAVEPETERS239 said:
I like math so the odds to pull a card always influences what I am willing to pay for something.

I know of a card that has like the odds to pull listed at over a half a million and was wondering if anyone else knew some cards with very tough odds to pull.

I don't mean calculated odds, I mean the stated odds like printed on a box or wrapper.

The one that I think might be the rarest and largest odds is the 2005 Bowman Chrome A-Rod Throwback Exclusives Autograph #94A-AR - Alex Rodriguez card.

The odds to pull this card was an astonishing 1:614,088 packs.

Does anyone else know of any cards with such high odds like this?

1. Doing a small amount of research, 2013 Topps Series 1 hobby packs had 1:789,912 odds for both Ultimate Chase Autographed Bat Knob Books and Ultimate Chase Autographed Bat Nameplate Books.

2. The A-Rod card you are talking about is clearly not the one you own, and it never will be, no matter how many questions you ask. But I'd give you $50 for it if YOU signed it.

3. If you really "liked math" you would only care about the odds for pulling a specific card, not the stated odds on the wrapper. For example, a card from a 100 card set that has 1:50,000 odds is far more difficult to pull than a card from a 1 card set that has 1:600,000 odds. It is evident that you actually HATE math and just like looking at numbers without thinking about them.

MansGame · Apr 15, 2014

Dilferules said:
1. Doing a small amount of research, 2013 Topps Series 1 hobby packs had 1:789,912 odds for both Ultimate Chase Autographed Bat Knob Books and Ultimate Chase Autographed Bat Nameplate Books.

2. The A-Rod card you are talking about is clearly not the one you own, and it never will be, no matter how many questions you ask. But I'd give you $50 for it if YOU signed it.

3. If you really "liked math" you would only care about the odds for pulling a specific card, not the stated odds on the wrapper. For example, a card from a 100 card set that has 1:50,000 odds is far more difficult to pull than a card from a 1 card set that has 1:600,000 odds. It is evident that you actually HATE math and just like looking at numbers without thinking about them.

Are we starting the bidding at $50 for the ARod card signed by him?! I'll bump it to $55 haha

MansGame · Apr 16, 2014

Okay, I don't go on BO much ever but just came across a thread which then linked to this ARod card being discussed for what looks like the second time... OMG... it got nearly 700 posts in a little over a week and even from the first post it was ON... I obviously didn't read all 26 pages of the thread but I haven't laughed this hard in a while... just so good...

http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/...-throwback-autographs-94ar-1994-sf-1-1-a.html

Juan Gris · Apr 17, 2014

MansGame said:
Okay, I don't go on BO much ever but just came across a thread which then linked to this ARod card being discussed for what looks like the second time... OMG... it got nearly 700 posts in a little over a week and even from the first post it was ON... I obviously didn't read all 26 pages of the thread but I haven't laughed this hard in a while... just so good...

http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/...-throwback-autographs-94ar-1994-sf-1-1-a.html

Yup, this card is a thread train wrecker.

3.50 · Apr 17, 2014

Ive wondered what were the odds to get a 92 UD Ted Williams auto. There were 2,500 but an insane amount of packs produced in that time.

/thread jacking attempt....:grouphug:

DeliciousBacon · Apr 17, 2014

3.50 said:
Ive wondered what were the odds to get a 92 UD Ted Williams auto. There were 2,500 but an insane amount of packs produced in that time.

/thread jacking attempt....:grouphug:

Very true, with no stated odds that I know of, there's really no way to know at all. Same with the old Donruss Elites; #'ed 10,000 but impossible to pull. Given how much of these products were spewed out, you could be looking at literal 1 in a million odds.

MansGame · Apr 17, 2014

What about the Mirror Blacks? Those had to be nearly impossible odds, if they even stated them.

Dilferules · Apr 17, 2014

DeliciousBacon said:
Very true, with no stated odds that I know of, there's really no way to know at all. Same with the old Donruss Elites; #'ed 10,000 but impossible to pull. Given how much of these products were spewed out, you could be looking at literal 1 in a million odds.

We could guesstimate.

Let's estimate that 750,000 of each base card was made for the low-number series (plus whatever low-series cards were also produced for the high-number set, but we don't care about those).

There were 700 cards in the low series. 700 x 750,000 = 525,000,000 total base cards distributed in low series packs.

Packs had 15 cards, but there were some insert sets so let's guess an average of 14.5 base cards per pack.

525,000,000 / 14.5 = 36,206,897 packs. This is going to be a little off since it only takes regular packs into consideration, and I think I remember UD making jumbo packs that year. But whatever!

36,206,897 packs / 2,500 Ted Williams autos = 1:14,483 odds for a Williams auto, or about one in 400 boxes.

I actually think those odds sound too good, I bet UD printed more than 750,000 of each card in the low series. That's just a number I pulled out of my butt based on estimates of how many cards were made at the absolute height of overproduction 1987-1991.

Dilferules · Apr 17, 2014

MansGame said:
What about the Mirror Blacks? Those had to be nearly impossible odds, if they even stated them.

What were the 1997 Mirror Golds limited to, supposedly 30? Or was it 35? Plus the massive amounts that came out after Pinnacle's bankruptcy - but those weren't inserted in packs.

1997 Mirror Golds had stated odds of 1:299. Assuming Mirror Blacks were 1/1, if there were 30 Golds inserted in packs the Blacks would be 1:8,970, if there were 35 Golds the Blacks would be 1:10,465. Pinnacle Certified was a comparatively low-printed set so it makes the odds a bit "easier" than a mass-produced product like 2014 Topps Series 1, where Platinum 1/1's are 1:25,500 hobby packs.

jeremy2 · Apr 17, 2014

T206s were inserted 1:1 i guess those are pretty worthless

BBCgalaxee · Apr 17, 2014

I remember reading that topps made 4.1 MILLION of every 1991 card.

Granted, topps made wax, cello, raks, vending, sets, cut cases and jumbo packs but I wonder ud didn't top a million.

Sent from my HTCONE using Freedom Card Board mobile app

Dilferules · Apr 17, 2014

BBCgalaxee said:
I remember reading that topps made 4.1 MILLION of every 1991 card.

Granted, topps made wax, cello, raks, vending, sets, cut cases and jumbo packs but I wonder ud didn't top a million.

Sent from my HTCONE using Freedom Card Board mobile app

If that's the case my numbers for 1992 UD are probably way off, and the odds should be doubled or tripled.

DAVEPETERS239 · Apr 17, 2014

BiggioBrooks755 said:
If its true than why would something need to be removed? or warned?

It is not true at all.

DAVEPETERS239 · Apr 17, 2014

A_Pharis said:
Nothing needs to be removed and no one needs to be warned. It's valid speculation and is no different from speculation on patches/etc.
Especially when discussion about it has been documented on multiple sites. (BO and here)

In order for me to get rid of everyone that knows your post history and the stuff you've been the subject of - I would literally have to ban 90% of the board. I like to keep my tally below 80%.

It is not speculation, it is a 100% false statement.

DAVEPETERS239 · Apr 17, 2014

nyc3 said:
How does a card that was backdoored have odds? Since there are at least several of them backdoored odds are irrelevant. You know this but refuse to admit it and now seems are trying to twist another story trying to mention how RARE this card is lol

if you truly wanted the answer you would have asked and not mentioned that $12 card and waited for someone else to say it... But no you had to say that one just to say its rare. Its like you think if you keep saying it that someone will believe you finally Which once again has been proven not to be the rarest card ever or the biggest odds.And still worth the less than $20.00 you paid for it on ebay.

Remember when you wouldnt listen that it was not a superfractor or a 1/1? Then you were shown another copy that was backdoored and you choose not to listen? But at least you dropped the super 1/1 nonsense.

This was not a backdoored card and was confirmed as to coming from a pack by Topps.

There is also allegedly another one of these cards but that person has not really proven they actually have one. They have posted some scans or pics and that took forever for them to do and they even said at one point they might get it graded and authenticated like mine but that never happened.

I am usnure where you come up with thise $12 number and $20 number from ebay but it is false.

DAVEPETERS239 · Apr 17, 2014

nyc3 said:
Agreed, well until I realized there was an agenda behind the topic. If you notice this guy just looks for ways to fit this card into any convo heh

There is no agenda. I was curious if anyone else knew of some tough odds and simply posted asking.

Krom · Apr 17, 2014

In all seriousness I would think a Arod Buyback Auto - Non Auto would be the toughest pull.

A_Pharis · Apr 17, 2014

DAVEPETERS239 said:
It is not speculation, it is a 100% false statement.

spec·u·la·tion
ˌspekyəˈlāSHən/
noun
noun: speculation; plural noun: speculations
1.
the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.

It's speculation... by the definition... to the letter.
It's also pretty widely believed speculation that has little on no bearing being said here as most people here have read the threads about them.

DAVEPETERS239 · Apr 17, 2014

Thanks everyone else for posting some very interesting cards and numbers. I didn't realize there were so many base cards printed up on the 90s like that.

Mighty Bombjack · Apr 17, 2014

DAVEPETERS239 said:
This was not a backdoored card and was confirmed as to coming from a pack by Topps.

I've said this before, but since everything about this card is being said on a giant loop I might as well repeat myself.

Nobody believes what Topps says, and I think this is a backdoored card. I say this as a former Topps employee. Clay Luraschi is trained to say whatever makes the company look the least incompetent, and stating that this slipped into packs unsigned sounds MUCH better than admitting it was backdoored. That term is forbidden at Topps, but the practice is not.

You can continue to take Topps at their word, and I know you will because it suits your agenda. But nobody at Topps knows what goes on in other parts of the company, which means that I (and most others here) are going to continue to believe that your card was backdoored. It doesn't matter what you, Topps, or Beckett says about the matter.

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