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Beckett's Pricing for BDP is Rediculous - Long Read

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marterburn

Active member
I know, shocker, right? But I've been tracking blue refractor sales since release, and I really don't see where they get a lot of their information from.

I track blue refractors because base, refractors and X-fractors are all too inconsistent. Now Beckett doesn't see it this way, so when I looked at pricing for the base chromes I was shocked to see everything so low since I had not researched base cards.

The blue refractor pricing was slightly more accurate, still off. This is a list of only the listings that are comlpletely off, for which the Lo-Hi price range Beckett has can't be justified at all based on sale values. If it was a full list, it would be probably 30 cards longer.

I use 'common' as 'lowest value that should be listed'. My research rounded to the nearest dollar with each sale:

Eric Campbell - High sell value of $6. Given, no lower SV than $4, but there's no way he shouldn't be common.
Anthony Ferrara - With two sales of 11, he shouldn't be listed as common.
Markus Brisker - Not a lot of SV info to go on, but what there shows he's not common.
Richard Bleier - TWO $1 sales and a $2 sale. Should be common.
Jeremy Beckham - TWO $1 sales, TWO $3 sales. Should be common.
Logan Schafer - Sales of 8, 11, 14. Shouldn't be common.
Dennis Raben - Only two Blue ref sales, at 14 and 23. So where do they get $5-12 from?
Ryne White - I know some of ya'll are high on him, but sales don't show it. Should be common.
Devaris Strange-Gordon - Solid sales. Shouldn't be common.
Jesus Montero - Absolutely no excuse on this one, as there have been 12 sales. Listed at $5-12, the LOWEST sale is 18, avg of $22.80.
Matt LaPorta - Highest sale is 8. Listed $8-20. Huh?

Al the autos looked somewhat accurate, though admittedly I didn't reseach it fully. It's more fun to track the multitudes of base card. :D
 

marterburn

Active member
I don't want to disrespect Beckett by listing everything they have.

But the tiers are, according to Beckett:

1 Flores and Posey
2. Stanton, Beckham, Montero
3. Inoa, Reddick
4. Holland, Davis, Montgomery, Collier
5. Chisenhall, Hewitt
6. Hand, Adams, Frederickson, Gutierrez, Schlereth
 

Huffamaniac

Active member
Oct 8, 2008
4,477
0
I think I would put Collier one higher and Montgomery one lower

marterburn said:
I don't want to disrespect Beckett by listing everything they have.

But the tiers are, according to Beckett:

1 Flores and Posey
2. Stanton, Beckham, Montero
3. Inoa, Reddick
4. Holland, Davis, Montgomery, Collier
5. Chisenhall, Hewitt
6. Hand, Adams, Frederickson, Gutierrez, Schlereth
 

smapdi

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
4,397
221
This is why using ebay as a price guide for all sales everywhere is not a good idea unless you are restricting your discussion to ebay only. Comparing ebay pricing to Beckett pricing is like comparing corn on the cob to cream corn. A handful, or even a single, transaction cannot be held up as the definition of where the market is. It's not the stock market, where a commodity is bought and sold in one place and the price of every single transaction is tracked. Plus, we've all found, or at least read about, steals on great cards at ridiculous prices because of reasons outside of what the card is (poor listings, dubious seller feedback, bad titles, misspellings, bad ending times, snipe failures, no scan, ridiculously low BIN prices because the seller didn't know, etc.), so shouldn't they be taken into account, too?

If you've been in a card shop in the last decade, you know that they don't sell based on ebay pricing, unless something's shot way up, and no dealer with rent to pay will sell the big hit in a box he opened, the autographed rookie card, for $4, at least not right out of the box. He knows that card represents the majority of the value in a typical box, one with no Super/Red/Orange whatever, and won't sell it for a pittance. That dealer can and likely will sell the scrub autograph he got for $20. And all those anonymous sales in card shops and shows everywhere should not be ignored when formulating a number for what that card is 'worth,' just because sales on ebay are there for everyone to see.

I am not blind to the fact that many Beckett prices are fictional. But they provide a fairly reliable guide for fair pricing based on awareness of the game and the hobby, and some math based on 24 years of putting the guide out. Also, don't forget there are 2 columns in the magazine, and while people like looking at one or the other, they are there to repesent a range. While there is a good chance there will be cards sold in shops or at shows for dimes on the dollar in quarter-bins bins and such, they also must be discounted when formulating a price.

Note also that Beckett is sold in card shops. I have no idea these days if they sell more on the newstands or in shops, what with there being so few shops now, but Beckett has never and will never list prices strictly according to final ebay sales. That would kill the pricing on 98% of the cards listed in the magazine, and so kill the value of any dealer's inventory. Kill their inventory value, kill the dealer, kill the distribution point for the magazine.

Bottom line is, use ebay pricing history when buying on ebay. Use it only as a very general guide when heading to the shop or show. They are two very different markets.
 

All The Hype

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
10,250
0
Indianapolis
Ha that's great to me. Nice job keeping up with the sales history, I think it's just great that they pull some of their prices out of the clouds..
 

All The Hype

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
10,250
0
Indianapolis
smapdi- I see what you're saying for sure, but I personally have a hard time believing that there have been more sales outside of ebay than on ebay that beckett has information about which they can report. Like the pricing for Montero just doesn't make sense at all, even if there are outside sales taking place that beckett is monitoring. How do 12 different blues sell on one of the most common sources for card buyingg/selling for 50%+ more than their listed value? That example in particular seems to me that they had no idea.
 

marterburn

Active member
smapdi -

my analysis is confined to eBay. I realize Beckett pulls from many other sources to price cards, and that could account some discrepancy, which is why I only listed 11 cards, instead of the 40 or so my research didn't wholly jive with. I realize Beckett uses a range, I prefer to use an average value. When my average value falls outside their range, it seems something is amiss even considering my research. is confined to eBay

And eBay sales are almost always lower than card shop sales. My research showed that some were lower, and some were higher. Unless Beckett is lazy and tracks some local markets but not others, I don't understand the ones that are higher.

I mean to them, Dennis Raben = Graham Hicks. Something is amiss there.
 

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