Let have a debate on the future value of Vintage (1948-1972) baseball cards

mmier118 · Feb 13, 2016

It seems like a lot of threads on other boards have been bashing on a lot of the new cards and saying stuff like "vintage never goes down" or the safest place to "invest" in baseball cards is to buy vintage. Stuff along those lines. I'm sure we've all heard it and I imagine some of us even believe it. I honestly think it could go either way. Obviously vintage has made a big run in the past several years and we've seen prices on a lot of mid grade 50's and 60's Rc's double or triple since the 2008/2009 period. Granted, those prices might have been artificially low because the economy was pretty rough during that time period, but after 8 years of economic expansion doesn't it make sense that it might be nearing a time when we have another little correction in the economy? Also I believe the vintage market has been strong because all of the baby boomers that grew up watching Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, and Hank Aaron play finally could afford to pick up some of their old baseball cards that their mom threw out. When these people decide it's time to sell who will absorb that inventory? In 20 years are the kids that grew up collecting in the 80's going to choose a 2nd or 3rd year Mickey Mantle over say a Michael Jordan RC, a card that many of us had, but sold too soon. Or comparing one baseball card to another, it seems as if the Bowman Chrome RC of Albert Pujols has both rarity and is relatively iconic in itself, will a card like that or Trout/Harper's Bowman Chrome Auto RC take the limited funds of a future collector? While now a lot of the "Baby Boomer" money is flowing towards the Mantle and Mays cards of yesteryear, will that trend continue? Only time will tell, but I'm not convinced that the market for cards from the 50's will hold up as well as everyone thinks. I also don't think that all current cards are doomed to slowly depreciate to the dollar bins. While there will always be a market for cards that are truly iconic (Mantle/Mays/Aaron/Clemente) RC's I could see these eventually being replaced by a new mount rushmore so to say. Cards like the Pujols Bowman Chrome, the Trout/Harper Bowman Chromes or in other sports the Jordan RC's and Brady/Manning Contender RC auto's. To sum it up most cards from the 50's aren't that rare, the kids that grew up in the 50's (baby boomers) are driving these prices, and the supply of older cards hitting the market may be increasing just as the demand for them is waning. So even though vintage looks like a can't miss deal now in hindsight that might not be the case. What do you guys think? Could we be witnessing a peak of sorts for cards from the 50's to early 70's?

matfanofold · Feb 13, 2016

Vintage has always been the gold standard. Could that change? Sure, but it hasn't yet and it seems to only get stronger with each generation.

Brewer Andy · Feb 13, 2016

I don't think there's enough current collectors to create the sense of "nostalgia" 30 years from now for a Bryce rookie. A lot of vintage was purchased by guys who owned those cards as kids and wanted a piece of their youth. How many kids right now are growing up with Harper/Pujols rookie autos? Pretty much none because they can't afford them anyway. Sure a few will someday want to acquire what they couldn't have growing up but it's not quite the same draw IMO. But Vintage cards will always be cool from a history perspective. Then again they're pretty expensive too and I could never own those as a kid either so who knows. All just hunches at this point

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mmier118 · Feb 13, 2016

I understand what you guys are saying I just want to look at things with a fresh perspective. Usually once everyone believes something to be true, it stops being that way. Kind of like the old "housing never goes down" myth. I'm honestly considering putting my money where my mouth is and selling off a few 50's and 60's cards to fund either a 2001 Pujols chrome pickup (although there are 0 on ebay) a Brady contenders RC auto, or maybe just throw in the stock market or something else. I just feel that vintage is getting a little ahead of itself and that the equity from these cards could be put to a better use. I can honestly say that at these prices I have 0 desire for a 1952 mantle. Is it cool, yes, is it $50,000 cool, no way. Same thing on a smaller level with say a 1954 PSA 5 Hank Aaron, yes, very cool, but is it really $2,000 + cool? I'm not really sure. And I'm even less sure that in 30 years it will be as cool when: A) it's not that rare and B) $2,000 + is a lot of money for a mid grade base card of anyone not named Babe Ruth. Could it go higher? sure, but in my opinion it's a lot less likely for it to go from 2k to 4k then it is for it to go from 1k to 2k, just because of demographics and honestly I really think around the 1000, to 2000 level you lose a lot of people that can afford such a card. As an example lots of people will save up for a $1000 card but less for a $2000 card and so on. I just feel that when I start to get priced out of a market lots of others are too, and i'm definitely getting priced out of the 50's RC market.

AnthonyCorona · Feb 13, 2016

So I should sell my 63 fleer set now?

Brewer Andy · Feb 13, 2016

I'd be thrilled to own a PSA 2 Aaron. It's out of mine and many others price range lol

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Nate Colbert 17 · Feb 13, 2016

I would look for most vintage to somewhat hold their value, if not increase, over the long haul. With more and more cards being slabbed, condition should not be as much of a factor as it is with unslabbed cards.

Modern cards (prospects, etc.) should continue to have wider variations in prices.

My two cents.

rexvos · Feb 13, 2016

I could speak for hours on this topic. Too many thoughts to type out. Mantle is the gold standard, and will always be. Baseball cards run this hobby, vintage high grade baseball in PSA slabs. Newer cards have their place, but the stars of the golden age drive it. Generational players that have not yet reached their full potential have the most upside. Vintage football RCs and Jordan have seen a huge increase over the last few years. Walter Payton PSA 9 has seen an almost $1000 spike since I bought mine around 2010, as well as a doubling in price of Jim Brown PSA 7 and a tripling of Joe Montana PSA 9 over e same time period. Only true modern RC that has outpaced these is the Spa Authentic PSA slabbed Tom Brady RCs. See the pattern here? High grade RCs of the best of the best not only hold value but pacer the market. Mid grades of elite players see small increases, as well as high grade non rookies of vintage stars driven by the PSA registry. So in short, if you are interested in making $. Graded high end RCs of generational players.

swish54_99 · Feb 13, 2016

I think one of the reasons, along with what rexvos said is that cards in the 50's/60's were viewed as fun and "played" with. So the fact that the mid-high grades survived those times is what helps make their market and nostalgia. Modern cards, people are smarter, and immediately put them in hard cases instead of rubber bands. Every day there's less than there was the day prior.

homerun28aa · Feb 13, 2016

Great post, very interesting topic. To preface, I'm a modern game-used/auto collector - not an RC guy from a modern or vintage perspective but with that being said I believe the vast majority of vintage will appreciate over time as Nate Colbert said and if you're looking for stuff in this hobby to collect that will be the safest to hold it's value over time I think vintage is the way to go. For me it's a simple supply and demand equation and I think the vintage stuff is on the right side of both of those. Supply is easy, Mantle RC's, Aaron RC's, etc. etc. cannot be reproduced so the supply is capped and will never increase. On the demand side (and this is just my personal opinion), game used is still a fairly new thing that started around 2000 while vintage cards go back into the 1800s - also the fans of the modern players are relatively young most just don't have the money to pay a lot for the hobby while Mantle, Aaron, etc. fans I think are generally older and have more disposable income. I could be wrong there though

predatorkj · Feb 13, 2016

Funny you mention being out priced. I'm fortunate enough right now to be able to even afford cards. There are many who are not that fortunate. That said, there are a slew of collectors who do have the money for cards but get out priced at $100. And some who get out priced at $500 and so on.

My point? There seems to be an awful lot of money being spent. I know people go gaga over Jordan stuff and high end basketball. But baseball is by far and away the most heavily collected sport. And people spend tons of money. Every day, all day. New cards, old cards, you name it. So don't think that the increase in price means a decrease in people willing to pay it. Yeah, some people will get priced out. But there always seems to be someone to take up the slack. How? I have no idea and frankly it's weird. But it sure keeps going on.

Mark70Z · Feb 14, 2016

From a personal perspective I believe vintage is the way to go if you're looking at ROI in the hobby. Just take a look at how many individuals collect pre-war for example and most people never seen these players in action. The cards are to the point where they are pieces of art and the art has all types of different variations and a wide variety of backs to the cards. Many of the players are just icons to the history of the game of baseball.

Also, the era you mention there are defined sets; so, you have set collectors and individual player collectors and they collect in all ranges of condition. Also the players are known, verses the modern where the players are, for the most part speculation, on how they will produce over the years. When I was growing up cards were a hobby, no one that I know of was worried about the corners, centering, registry, focus, surface, etc. Therefore, currently condition is key for these vintage cards as you can see by the prices. As time goes by condition for lower grades will still get strong money due to supply and demand as well as what people can afford.

Today, cards are out of the pack and kept in pristine condition (personal opinion - more for the value not for hobby sake). How many set collectors are there out there for modern shiny cards? Seems that people are looking for the hit, or speculation on newer players. Now, I think some of the future HOF players will surely be collected and the values will possibly see an increase.

homerun28aa · Feb 14, 2016

Mark70Z said:
From a personal perspective I believe vintage is the way to go if you're looking at ROI in the hobby. Just take a look at how many individuals collect pre-war for example and most people never seen these players in action. The cards are to the point where they are pieces of art and the art has all types of different variations and a wide variety of backs to the cards. Many of the players are just icons to the history of the game of baseball.

Also, the era you mention there are defined sets; so, you have set collectors and individual player collectors and they collect in all ranges of condition. Also the players are known, verses the modern where the players are, for the most part speculation, on how they will produce over the years. When I was growing up cards were a hobby, no one that I know of was worried about the corners, centering, registry, focus, surface, etc. Therefore, currently condition is key for these vintage cards as you can see by the prices. As time goes by condition for lower grades will still get strong money due to supply and demand as well as what people can afford.

Today, cards are out of the pack and kept in pristine condition (personal opinion - more for the value not for hobby sake). How many set collectors are there out there for modern shiny cards? Seems that people are looking for the hit, or speculation on newer players. Now, I think some of the future HOF players will surely be collected and the values will possibly see an increase.

Great points all around - I didn't even think about the condition issues. The 1950s Bowman and Topps cards that you see go for four+ figures, people didn't know how valuable I'm sure many people folded them, glued them to their notebooks, taped them, etc. Today people know sports cards have the potential to be worth a lot so they keep them in pristine condition like you said. 50 years from now I can bet we'll see a lot more pristine Harper RC's than we see Mantle RC's in good condition today.

mmier118 · Feb 14, 2016

You guys all make really good points, I really appreciate the fact that on this board you can get so many well thought out opinions and not all of the other b.s. and personal attacks that can happen on other boards.

I guess for me, as weird as it seems, I think these higher end vintage cards will fluctuate with the economy and the stock market. If things keep going well I could see them continuing to appreciate, but if we hit a little slower economy like in 2008 we might see a similar pullback like we saw then. But now 8 years later, key cards and key RC's from all years really (from caramel to Bowman Chrome) have been making new high after new high. For all the threads I've read about the hobby dying etc. I just don't think you can believe that, as predatorkj says people are buying cards 24/7, day and night and ebay just keeps churning out completed auction after completed auction, and in total, the dollar amounts are staggering. It just makes you wonder how high can these things can go? We've seen most key cards double, triple and more over the last 8 years and while I have a hard time seeing that level of appreciation continuing, but I'm sure it's quite possible.

It's funny that what even got me to think about this topic is that Probstein is selling an amazing football card collection, It covers everything from Chicle's to Odell Beckham, I think I saw like 5 Tom Brady SPA rc's in this collection, and it got me thinking on why a collection like this would come to the market. Who knows if someone just needed the money or if a collector passed, or if someone just decided these cards had appreciated so much it was time to cash out and put the money into something else. While it's fun to speculate on the future prices of these little pieces of cardboard, no one can argue that for the past 7-8 years (and probably the last 20) the quality pieces have at least kept pace with the stock market if not done better. Who know's what will happen for the next 7-8, but as many have said the cream will rise to the top and the rest will go to COMC lol.

mmier118 · Feb 14, 2016

rexvos said:
I could speak for hours on this topic. Too many thoughts to type out. Mantle is the gold standard, and will always be. Baseball cards run this hobby, vintage high grade baseball in PSA slabs. Newer cards have their place, but the stars of the golden age drive it. Generational players that have not yet reached their full potential have the most upside. Vintage football RCs and Jordan have seen a huge increase over the last few years. Walter Payton PSA 9 has seen an almost $1000 spike since I bought mine around 2010, as well as a doubling in price of Jim Brown PSA 7 and a tripling of Joe Montana PSA 9 over e same time period. Only true modern RC that has outpaced these is the Spa Authentic PSA slabbed Tom Brady RCs. See the pattern here? High grade RCs of the best of the best not only hold value but pacer the market. Mid grades of elite players see small increases, as well as high grade non rookies of vintage stars driven by the PSA registry. So in short, if you are interested in making $. Graded high end RCs of generational players.

Thanks for this post I enjoyed seeing the specific cards and the amount of appreciation, we all follow the market but it's nice to be reminded of specific examples and price changes.

mchenrycards · Feb 14, 2016

mmier118 said:
It seems like a lot of threads on other boards have been bashing on a lot of the new cards and saying stuff like "vintage never goes down" or the safest place to "invest" in baseball cards is to buy vintage. Stuff along those lines. I'm sure we've all heard it and I imagine some of us even believe it. I honestly think it could go either way. Obviously vintage has made a big run in the past several years and we've seen prices on a lot of mid grade 50's and 60's Rc's double or triple since the 2008/2009 period. Granted, those prices might have been artificially low because the economy was pretty rough during that time period, but after 8 years of economic expansion doesn't it make sense that it might be nearing a time when we have another little correction in the economy? Also I believe the vintage market has been strong because all of the baby boomers that grew up watching Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, and Hank Aaron play finally could afford to pick up some of their old baseball cards that their mom threw out. When these people decide it's time to sell who will absorb that inventory? In 20 years are the kids that grew up collecting in the 80's going to choose a 2nd or 3rd year Mickey Mantle over say a Michael Jordan RC, a card that many of us had, but sold too soon. Or comparing one baseball card to another, it seems as if the Bowman Chrome RC of Albert Pujols has both rarity and is relatively iconic in itself, will a card like that or Trout/Harper's Bowman Chrome Auto RC take the limited funds of a future collector? While now a lot of the "Baby Boomer" money is flowing towards the Mantle and Mays cards of yesteryear, will that trend continue? Only time will tell, but I'm not convinced that the market for cards from the 50's will hold up as well as everyone thinks. I also don't think that all current cards are doomed to slowly depreciate to the dollar bins. While there will always be a market for cards that are truly iconic (Mantle/Mays/Aaron/Clemente) RC's I could see these eventually being replaced by a new mount rushmore so to say. Cards like the Pujols Bowman Chrome, the Trout/Harper Bowman Chromes or in other sports the Jordan RC's and Brady/Manning Contender RC auto's. To sum it up most cards from the 50's aren't that rare, the kids that grew up in the 50's (baby boomers) are driving these prices, and the supply of older cards hitting the market may be increasing just as the demand for them is waning. So even though vintage looks like a can't miss deal now in hindsight that might not be the case. What do you guys think? Could we be witnessing a peak of sorts for cards from the 50's to early 70's?

I do see your argument but I do not agree with it for one main reason......There is nobody that is now living that saw Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Red Ames or even Buck Herzog play yet their cards are very much in demand. Baseball cards produced in the 19th and 20th century are still selling incredibly well despite the fact that these players have long ago passed and many of their relatives barely know who they are. As long as there is the game of baseball these will be a demand for vintage baseball cards.

I certainly buy your arguement that the baby boomers are pushing the sales of Mantle cards to the stratosphere but this does not mean that the rest of those cards will lose value or interest as the boomers die off. History is a great motivator and I know as a kid I wanted to obtain the cards made during the playing years of the guys I read about in the books I bought. Tris Speaker and Mel Ott were two cards I bought very early and still regret to this day the fact I sold them off to buy a few boxes of modern cards I regretted buying within seconds of breaking the last packs in the box. You see, true lovers of the history of this great game will propel sales for vintage cards and collectibles forever. These cards are the one tangible "thing" that we can hold in our hands that connect us to the game, to the players and to those collectors from a bygone era who originally cracked the cards from the packs.

While I am convinced that there will still be a market for vintage 30 years down the road I am not so convinced investors will be happy with their ROI. I started collecting in the early '70's when card shows were called Collector Conventions and tobacco cards as well as most vintage gum cards were sold for under a dollar with some dealers selling a one inch stack of cards for five bucks.....your choice of cards. I would love to see this hobby go back to those days where it was a collectors market and the investment potential was removed from the equation.

Maybe the better question would be this.......If you knew your collection would maintain it's nominal value but not have any chance of appreciating now or in the future, would you (not you as in the OP but you as in all of us collectors) still collect for the fun of it or would you not collect because the lure of making some money to great you would find other avenues for your investment? I know I would because I have already been there.

cbrandtw · Feb 14, 2016

^ Well said mchenry. I believe you nailed it when you connected the collector to the history of the game. Great post!

mmier118 · Feb 14, 2016

In a way, if you are a true collector, this market is pretty amazing. Rookie cards may be at crazy prices but most other cards are cheaper now than when I started collecting in the 80's. I can pick up game used Jersey cards of future and current members of the Hall of fame for less then $5.00. And not the ones with vague wording on the back, I prefer ones with the actual photo of the item the piece was taken from. Many HOF autographs can be had for less then $20. All sorts of rare inserts and just overall cool cards are available 24/7 at bargain prices on ebay and COMC. There are a ton of different ways you can collect, rainbows, sub sets, autographed sub sets, the base set etc. One of my favorite things to do is to pick up the base topps card for all of the players I enjoyed watching. I always enjoy looking at those even though there isn't any real value there. Seeing a Jeter or Pujols run of base topps cards brings me as much joy as looking at other more expensive items. It's also fun to watch the Harper and Trout base topps runs slowly fill up. I think for the "collector" this current market is a blessing.

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