Is Joey Votto a future HOFer?

There are a number of players who are pretty interesting conversations as far as their potential to make the HOF one day. I was thinking each one could make for an interesting discussion, and thought I'd start with Joey Votto.

To me Votto is a really interesting player. He's only once hit 30 homeruns at only twice knocked in 100 runs playing at 1st base, a traditional power position. He recently turned 33 and has 1406 career hits, having turned 25 in his first full season and having missed 50 games in 2012 and 100 in 2014.

At the same time, his ability to get on base is historically good. At .425 he has the 12th highest OBP of all-time. His OPS is 17th of all-time (presently) and almost identical to Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout.

I'd guess that he winds up with 2200 hits and 350 homers along with .310/.420/.520. Given the modern day recognition of the value of OBP, I think this would be sufficient to warrant serious HOF consideration.

Thoughts?

My first thought is how can he go in but not bonds, rose or arod?

low profile except for Red's fans = long shot

Votto is a wonderful player, unless he has some huge years before he retires I don't see the writers voting him in. It took Craig Biggio 3 tries with 3,000 hits to his credit. I am a big proponent for on base percentage being more valuable than many people take it for but that alone doesn't make someone hall worthy. I view Votto as a great player but not historically great. Compared to his contemporaries he is a tier below.

AnthonyCorona said:

My first thought is how can he go in but not bonds, rose or arod?

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Has Votto been suspected anything performance enhancing? Otherwise the statement above would eliminate every player pretty much. I understand your feelings on the guys listed, but clearly that has not meant that the HOF has not let anyone in over the last few years.

bstanwood said:

Votto is a wonderful player, unless he has some huge years before he retires I don't see the writers voting him in. It took Craig Biggio 3 tries with 3,000 hits to his credit. I am a big proponent for on base percentage being more valuable than many people take it for but that alone doesn't make someone hall worthy. I view Votto as a great player but not historically great. Compared to his contemporaries he is a tier below.

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Curious which "contemporaries" you are referring to. In my mind the only hitters who have arguably been better than him are Pujols, Cabrera and Trout.

On another note I think Biggio should have been 1st ballot...

Initial reaction is a firm no, but I haven't looked up the numbers.

Do you think Yadier Molina is a future Hall of Famer?

My first thought was yes he is, but I didn't realize he was already 33 years old. That doesn't leave him much time to get to the milestone offensive stats.

I think Molina is a future HOF'er. Best defensive catcher of all time?...quite possibly, but certainly of this era.

swish54_99 said:

My first thought was yes he is, but I didn't realize he was already 33 years old. That doesn't leave him much time to get to the milestone offensive stats.

I think Molina is a future HOF'er. Best defensive catcher of all time?...quite possibly, but certainly of this era.

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Last year I started a savings account that I direct deposit $35 a week into and it's my Yadier Molina HOF account.

Say, he plays two more years, then retires. Five more years of the waiting period, and if he's a first ballot hall of famer, which probably isn't likely, I'll have around $13,000 saved for a Cooperstown/New York vacation. That's if he goes in first ballot. Which probably won't be likely, like I said before.

Votto won't come close. His career stats will be much too low, and voters realistically won't care about his walks or on-base percentage. Plus, he's entering his mid-30s and his stats will begin to decline.

Career stats of .310, 2,200 hits and 350 homers won't be nearly enough, especially for a first baseman. A first baseman with only two 100 rbi seasons? 30 homers only once? No season with greater than 185 hits. Walks and OBP won't impress voters.

In order to make the HOF with low career stats, you have to be completely dominant for several years, or be a middle infielder or catcher.
Votto's only HOF-caliber season was arguably his MVP year.

Larry Walker and Edgar Martinez, with their batting titles and superstar status, haven't come close to election with similar numbers, and they're likable players.

Hall of Fame voters are incredibly picky, and will knock out excellent players in their first year eligible.
Kenny Lofton, with 2500 hits and one of the greatest base stealers of all time, got kicked off the ballot his first try with less than 5%.
So did Jim Edmonds, with 400 homers and being known as one of the greatest fielding center fielders ever.
So did Carlos Delgado, 1,500 rbi, almost 500 homers and several monster seasons, with no link to PEDs. Knocked off on first ballot with less than 5% of the vote.

Those guys don't deserve to be Hall of Famers, but they were at least as good overall as Votto, and they couldn't even get 5% of the vote.

Votto will linger in the 20-40% range like other excellent players, Larry Walker, Alan Trammell, Steve Garvey, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, etc. and those guys had much longer and better stretches of dominant years.

Super Mario said:

Initial reaction is a firm no, but I haven't looked up the numbers.

Do you think Yadier Molina is a future Hall of Famer?

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Yadi will make it in long before Votto does.

scotty216brs said:

Yadi will make it in long before Votto does.

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Yes I'd agree here. Assuming careers continue till the natural end (no injuries or unexpected surges in productivity) I'd see Yadi in and Votto not

Ask Bill Buckner.

A very fine player, and I can't pass final judgment on a guy who hopefully still has quite a while to go, but my initial reaction is that he seems destined for the McGriff-Mussina Tesseract, without even the benefit of being on a high-profile team that goes to the playoffs every year. I'm not necessarily a purist or traditionalist, but the day OBP alone merits Hall consideration seems like it would be a sad day. His MVP year he led the league in OBP and SLG (and OPS, obv) so possibly writers will continue to give more weight to secondary stats in their decision making, and as ESPN and MLBTV use them more commonly, general fans will understand them. On the other hand, the Reds were a bit of a surprise team that year, which voters always love (can't give it to Albert every year), and he was the main guy on that team, and his season truly was excellent. The creation of new stats to better understand the nuances of the game can reveal some surprising things about those who excel in them but not simple counting stats. But they don't really engender the respect or awe I'd feel for those that do. So unless that evolution really solidifies, which certainly could happen, especially since even if he isn't elected right away, he should stay on the ballot for a good long time, which would help.

I've read some of the above comments and contest the comparisons to players like Delgado and Mcgriff. Maybe it's the eye test he's failing but traditional measurables of first basemen (hits, HR) don't tell how great Votto has been. Votto is already at 47 bwar and could reach 60+ by end of career if he can produce at levels of his last 3 healthy seasons through age 36. That's in less total seasons than most hall of fame hitters will have. The gold glove and mvp should help his case. I would say Votto has ~ 50% chance to eventually get elected with his statistics. Of course assuming he has an injury-free and productive late career.

Short answer: no

Longer answer: nope

He will end up like Konerko in the hall of very good

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Freedom Card Board mobile app

As in most cases, if you have to ask, no. Joey Votto is not now nor will be a HOFer for his playing years.

houstonreds said:

I've read some of the above comments and contest the comparisons to players like Delgado and Mcgriff. Maybe it's the eye test he's failing but traditional measurables of first basemen (hits, HR) don't tell how great Votto has been. Votto is already at 47 bwar and could reach 60+ by end of career if he can produce at levels of his last 3 healthy seasons through age 36. That's in less total seasons than most hall of fame hitters will have. The gold glove and mvp should help his case. I would say Votto has ~ 50% chance to eventually get elected with his statistics. Of course assuming he has an injury-free and productive late career.

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I have to agree. I'm not sure he will accumulate the career totals to sway the voters, but I would argue that the comparisons to Larry Walker, Edgar Martinez and Fred McGriff, highlight how underestimated he is. He's better at the plate that Walker and Edgar for his career (to this point... of course we'll see what he ends up with) and Walker played in Colorado and Edgar has been punished (some would argue unfairly) for being a DH. I think most agree that Edgar would be in the Hall already if he played a position on the diamond. And McGriff is miles away as a hitter.

Professional scouts would tell you he's one of the best hitters of his generation.

OPS+ Yearly
2008- 125
2009- 156 (5th)
2010- 171 (3rd)
2011- 155 (8th)
2012- 177 (1st played 111 games)
2013- 156 (7th)
2014- 125
2015- 174 (3rd)
2016- 160 (3rd)

Active OPS+ Leaders Career

1. Trout- 170
2. Votto- 157
2. Pujols- 157
3. Cabrera- 155