Will We Ever See Another 300K Season By A Pitcher Again?

Is the 300K season by a pitcher extinct? I think so. No one can say for sure, but think of it this way.....

There have been 64-300K seasons in MLB history and we've only seen four of them since the year 2000. Three by Randy Johnson and one by Curt Schilling.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SO_p_season.shtml

I just can't see it happening and I don't think managers tendencies or the current trends with game pace etc helping either.


Thoughts?

The way the hitters are trending I think we will. Currently pitching is more dominating than hitting as witnessed by the total season strikeout rate, one of the highest it has ever been (if not the highest). Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer all come to mind as guys who are capable of it.

It really disappoints me seeing the "next generation" of hitters like Baez and Bryant with the Cubs and Gallo w/the Rangers and their incredibly high k rate. Get some of these free swingers up in the bigs in the next few years and a 300k season will totally be possible.

Yes, I think so.
Yu Darvish had 277 Ks in 209 innings last season and he pitched with a back injury in all of September. He could have gotten 300 if he was healthy.

And imagine how exciting it would be if Aroldis Chapman was a starter. He's averaged 2 Ks an inning the last two seasons.

Yeah, we will, but it will be at a lower pace than in the past.

corockies said:

The way the hitters are trending I think we will. Currently pitching is more dominating than hitting as witnessed by the total season strikeout rate, one of the highest it has ever been (if not the highest). Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer all come to mind as guys who are capable of it.

It really disappoints me seeing the "next generation" of hitters like Baez and Bryant with the Cubs and Gallo w/the Rangers and their incredibly high k rate. Get some of these free swingers up in the bigs in the next few years and a 300k season will totally be possible.

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I Agree With This. Seems Like More And More Hitters Are Just Swinging At Everything.

Not sure. As some have said, it appears there are a lot more batters striking out as time goes on. Granted I have nothing to support this and actual stats could prove me wrong very easily.

With that said, it also seems pitchers are coddled a lot more as well unless it's a true workhorse. Starters used to go a lot deeper into games which has taken away innings and thus chances for more strikeouts. It'll happen again just nowhere near as much as days past.

Totally agree about hitters and no shame striking out.

I think the flaw with reaching 300K is with pitchers - they usually get shut down or limited late in the season due to innings pitched, or pitchers may be more likely to pitch 6 innings if the bullpen is reliable so the pitchers won't have to be shut down or limited late in the season by keeping their innings per start reasonable.

I think by the pitcher flaw, it will be fairly rare for a pitcher to have a 300K season - maybe once or twice per decade.

If he stays healthy for a complete season, Chris Sale will.

A virtual "must do" to reach 300Ks is obvious, but the pitcher needs 34 starts. In those 34 starts, he needs to average 7IP...which gets us to 238IP for the season.

Then a mere 11.35K/9IP and we're good to go.

Right now, Darvish has been the only pitcher to sniff that K/9IP over the last two years...but I like Dave's mention of Sale. Definitely potential.

Arguably the greatest strikeout pitcher of all-time, Randy Johnson "only" did it 6 seasons (pitching 34-35 games in those seasons). Nolan Ryan also reached 300 in 6 season...however in 5 of those seasons were in 4-man rotations (averaging 39+ games), and in the 6th...he just reached it with 301ks.

Do I think it will happen again? Yes....but I don't think that pitcher is on the radar yet.

Darvish's K/9IP ratio is good...but it's not the awe-inspiring 12+K/9IP that you really want for this.

rsmath said:

Totally agree about hitters and no shame striking out.

I think the flaw with reaching 300K is with pitchers - they usually get shut down or limited late in the season due to innings pitched, or pitchers may be more likely to pitch 6 innings if the bullpen is reliable so the pitchers won't have to be shut down or limited late in the season by keeping their innings per start reasonable.

I think by the pitcher flaw, it will be fairly rare for a pitcher to have a 300K season - maybe once or twice per decade.

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I agree with this statement, but for different reasons.

Consider:

1. A 30% K rate is outstanding for today's starting pitchers.
2. Even at this lofty rate, a pitcher would have to face 1,000 batters to reach 300 Ks.
3. A 1,000 BF season has only been achieved 16 times since 2000,
4. A 30% K rate with only even 500 BF has only been achieved 13 times since 2000.
5. Even if a pitcher manages a 35% K rate (astounding), they would need to face 857 batters to reach 300 Ks.
6. There have been 505 seasons with 857+ BF since 2000
7. Only 1 has managed to face even 500 batters with a K rate higher than 35%....RJ in 2001

This all makes for a very unlikely Venn Diagram.

Now, let's take a quick look at the batters in terms of their general propensity to strikeout (a free swinging approach lends well to aiding a given pitcher's strikeout totals):

Number of batters with 100+ strikeouts (AL/NL):

2013: 57, 46 (103)
2012: 55, 55 (110)
2011: 37, 38 (75)
2010: 36, 49 (85)
2009: 40, 39 (79)
2008: 35, 51 (86)
2007: 42, 44 (86)
2006: 32, 39 (71)
2005: 35, 34 (69)
2004: 30, 36 (66)
2003: 28, 30 (58)
2002: 36, 35 (71)
2001: 32, 42 (74)
2000: 30, 27 (57)

While there has no doubt been a recent uptick in the number of batters who strikeout more freely (100+ per season), the average top 10 K% rates among pitchers hasn't really kept pace.

Aside from the obvious advantage an NL pitcher has in facing the opponent's pitcher, an NL position player has, in general, a higher propensity to strikeout. Approximately 8% higher than American League hitters with 100+ strikeout seasons since 2000.

Last point:

Since 2000, the average top 20 American League K% rate season (min. 500 BF) is 28.33%...nevermind the fact that you'd need a K rate around 60% if you are anywhere near the min. BF.

In the National League, the average top 20 K% rate season (min. 500 BF) is 29.66%.

As you can see the distinct advantage an National League starting pitcher has in terms of facing less discriminating batters has yet to translate into a meaningful advantage when it comes to recording a higher K% rate.

In the end, several stars in the constellation would have to align for a pitcher to record 300 strikeouts anytime soon. I hope I am wrong as soon as 2015.

On a side note, I hope to release my findings on the all-time greatest strikeout pitchers using K% rates as the key metric in the near future.

Darvish will and Sale and Kershaw definitely could.

But 25 wins? That's alot less likely IMO...

cjedmonton said:

I agree with this statement, but for different reasons.

Consider:

1. A 30% K rate is outstanding for today's starting pitchers.
2. Even at this lofty rate, a pitcher would have to face 1,000 batters to reach 300 Ks.
3. A 1,000 BF season has only been achieved 16 times since 2000,
4. A 30% K rate with only even 500 BF has only been achieved 16 times since 2000.
5. Even if a pitcher manages a 35% K rate (astounding), they would need to face 857 batters to reach 300 Ks.
6. There have been exactly 200 seasons with 857+ BF since 2000
7. Only 1 has managed to face even 500 batters with a K rate higher than 35%....RJ in 2001

This all makes for a very unlikely Venn Diagram.

Now, let's take a quick look at the batters in terms of their general propensity to strikeout (free swinging approach lends well to aiding a given pitcher's strikeout totals):

Number of batters with 100+ strikeouts (AL/NL):

2013: 57, 46 (103)
2012: 55, 55 (110)
2011: 37, 38 (75)
2010: 36, 49 (85)
2009: 40, 39 (79)
2008: 35, 51 (86)
2007: 42, 44 (86)
2006: 32, 39 (71)
2005: 35, 34 (69)
2004: 30, 36 (66)
2003: 28, 30 (58)
2002: 36, 35 (71)
2001: 32, 42 (74)
2000: 30, 27 (57)

While there has no doubt been a recent uptick in the number of batters who strikeout more freely (100+ per season), the average top 10 K% rates among pitchers hasn't really kept pace.

Aside from the obvious advantage an NL pitcher has in facing the opponent's pitcher, an NL position player has, in general, a higher propensity to strikeout. Approximately 8% higher among all players with 100+ strikeout seasons since 2000.

Last point:

Since 2000, the average top 20 American League K% rate season (min. 500 BF) is 28.33...nevermind the fact that you'd need a K rate around 60% if you are anywhere near the min. BF.

In the National League, the average top 20 K% rate season (min. 500 BF) is 29.66%.

As you can see the distinct advantage an National League starting pitcher has in terms of facing less discriminating batters has yet to translate into a meaningful advantage when it comes to recording a higher K% rate.

In the end, several stars in the constellation would have to align for a pitcher to record 300 strikeouts anytime soon. I hope I am wrong as soon as 2015.

On a side note, I hope to release my findings on the all-time greatest strikeout pitchers using K% rates as the key metric in the near future.

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This is 100x better than most articles you find on sites like espn and si.

It could happen but agreed, pretty rare. If a dominating pitcher like Santana from 04-06 can only get to a max of 265 Ks, it'll take a special pitcher.

Bringing this thread back. Kershaw. 10/4/2015. 301K's. Go Dodgers.

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Yeah was hoping he would get it. So awesome

Hitters dont care about striking out but then again pitchers wont pitch 9 innings anyway...They can, they just wont