Is it safe to call Goldschmidt the front runner for NL MVP?

The guy is en fuego..

In the National League he ranks:

#1 in RBI (57)
#2 in OPS (.1021)
#3 in Slugging Percentage (.627)
#3 in Home Runs (15)
#4 in Runs (43)
#5 in OBP (.411)
#5 in Hits (74)
#6 in Average (.332)
#6 in Doubles (17)

I was at the game versus the Giants last night and he gave a ride to 2 home run distance foul balls during one at bat before grounding out.

He has some type of power and a glove to boot. But is he better than Tulo, Votto, and CarGo?

He's definitely a frontrunner but he wouldn't be unanimous if that's what you are looking for. Yadier, Votto, and especially Tulo would be getting 1st place votes probably.

I could also see some votes going to Cargo, Matt Carpenter, and Patrick Corbin.

I like Tulo right now but Goldy having a great season so far. Definitely in the argument for front runner.

I've watched all but maybe 10 DBacks games this year, and he is the first person in a long time that makes me wait to watch. He's fun, as you stated can play D and I hope it continues. Only regret is not investing in him.

MVP for sure IMO at this moment

Ryan

RStadlerASU22 said:

I've watched all but maybe 10 DBacks games this year, and he is the first person in a long time that makes me wait to watch. He's fun, as you stated can play D and I hope it continues. Only regret is not investing in him.

MVP for sure IMO at this moment

Ryan

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I enjoy watching him as well. Wish I would have stockpiled his chrome autos while they were cheaper..

Considering the Dbacks' record, I think he has to be the guy at the moment. We will see if his and his team's pace can continue.

markakis8 said:

He's definitely a frontrunner but he wouldn't be unanimous if that's what you are looking for. Yadier, Votto, and especially Tulo would be getting 1st place votes probably.

I could also see some votes going to Cargo, Matt Carpenter, and Patrick Corbin.

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The three names I bolded should NOT receive any 1st place votes. Corbin has the wins going for him, but for everything else, there is a large clump of SP who have better or just as good peripheral numbers. Unless a pitcher is straight up blowing away the competition, they shouldn't receive any 1st place votes for the MVP, imo.

As for Yadi Mo and Carpenter, just because a team is the best team in one of the leagues, doesn't mean you HAVE to throw MVP votes (especially 1st place votes) at one of their players (or two), especially if they aren't playing at an MVP caliber level.

I think it is safe to have Goldschmidt in the driver's seat of the award, with the other 3 mentioned players (CarGo, Tulo and Votto) very closely right behind him. I would bet Justin Upton gets a few, token votes for what he did over the first 5 weeks or so and the Braves being in 1st place.

There is a much bigger fight for the NL Cy Young award.

Anthony K. said:

The three names I bolded should NOT receive any 1st place votes. Corbin has the wins going for him, but for everything else, there is a large clump of SP who have better or just as good peripheral numbers. Unless a pitcher is straight up blowing away the competition, they shouldn't receive any 1st place votes for the MVP, imo.

As for Yadi Mo and Carpenter, just because a team is the best team in one of the leagues, doesn't mean you HAVE to throw MVP votes (especially 1st place votes) at one of their players (or two), especially if they aren't playing at an MVP caliber level.

I think it is safe to have Goldschmidt in the driver's seat of the award, with the other 3 mentioned players (CarGo, Tulo and Votto) very closely right behind him. I would bet Justin Upton gets a few, token votes for what he did over the first 5 weeks or so and the Braves being in 1st place.

There is a much bigger fight for the NL Cy Young award.

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Ok, well one - not all that I mentioned I thought should receive a 1st place vote, but I could see where you could think that with the words I said. I was merely stating that the all above would get votes that could deter votes from Goldschmidt.

But, with that said, I will dispute the Yadier and Corbin 1st place votes. Do I think they deserve a 1st place vote? Yes, I do. Would I give them one? Well, I only have one to give, but it would not shock me if they would receive one from other writers. Corbin is 9-0 on a 1st place team with a sub 2 ERA....hard to see why he wouldn't be in the top 5 in MVP voting...Yadier is hitting over .350 at one of the most important defensive positions in the game on the best team in baseball...we all know how voters love offensive catchers for MVP - see Mauer and Posey.

I'm not arguing they are MVP over Goldschmidt...PG gets my vote for now but it's not a runaway race. There are WAY too many contenders and it way too early. PG could go 0 for his next 12 and he falls from front runner to Top 10 contender.

I would literally JIMP if Yadi won the MVP.

MVP/Cy Young voting has begun to evolve past a pitcher's record and ERA to evaluate effectiveness. Patrick Corbin is perfect case-in-point.

Corbin has been the beneficiary of incredible, unsustainable luck, as well as solid but not spectacular pitching. Sure, his baseball card stats of 9-0 record with a 1.98 era looks great on the surface. But we've reached the point in baseball analysis that to judge a player based upon surface stats is both lazy and misleading.

Corbin's peripherals are not great. While he has above average K/9 and BB/9, they aren't elite. His .258 BABIP screams regression, and ZIPS projects a .318 BABIP the rest of the way. They're predicting hitters will bat roughly 60 points higher against Corbin than they already have to this point. His strand rate of 84.1% leads the National League and is completely unsustainable. The league avg LOB% is around 70-72% and while not all pitchers regress towards the mean Corbin doesn't posses the elite K rate to remain the outlier. He won't continue on keeping those runners stranded, thus more runs scored. His FIP is a respectable 3.10 and xFIP 3.82 but neither of those numbers are elite. But what about those 9 wins, doesn't he have something to do with that? Well, they say it's a lot easier to get wins if your offense produces. Corbin has been the beneficiary of 5.17 runs per game from the offense, good for 6th highest in the league.

Finally, while pitcher's WAR is certainly not the end-all-be-all of evaluation, Corbin is still 10th in the NL. An argument could be made that everyone listed ahead of him is a better pitcher.

National League Leaderboards » 2013 » Pitchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Take a look and see if you'd take Corbin over any one of those pitchers to be the "ace" of your team. Bottom line: Corbin shouldn't be in the discussion.

Wow that was a lot of numbers I am not sure voters break it down that far, maybe they do..?? His 3 N/D were all good starts and DBack wins. It would be hard to overlook a perfect record and below 2 ERA. It's still early and who knows where things end up
******and I'm referring to Cy not MVP
Ryan

RStadlerASU22 said:

Wow that was a lot of numbers I am not sure voters break it down that far, maybe they do..?? His 3 N/D were all good starts and DBack wins. It would be hard to overlook a perfect record and below 2 ERA. It's still early and who knows where things end up
******and I'm referring to Cy not MVP
Ryan

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These are actually very basic sabermetric concepts. It's easy for me to get intimidated by complex formulas or non-tangible statistics. I'm no math geek and still use a calculator to determine even the most basic solutions. But years ago, after becoming a daily reader of sabermetric blogs it was clear to me I was missing out on the proper ways to evaluate baseball talent. It takes a lot of pro-activeness to give these numbers context and make them digestible but once you see the light you never go back. I believe writers are coming around (see: AL Cy Young 2010) but the "old-school" baseball card numbers evaluation is still very much present - from fans and writers.

The geeks shall inherit the turf.

Personally I would have to say Tulo is the front runner right now

When you guys say "Cargo" are you talking about Carlos Gomez, or Gonzales? Because both are having a great year; Gonzo with the power, but Gomez has power and leads the NL in WAR.

Just curious.

Tulowitzski:

.351 avg., 40 runs, 16 hr, 51 rbi, 1.073 OPS, 3.6 WAR

Goldschmidt:

.318 avg., 43 runs, 15 hr, 58 rbi, .979 OPS, 3.4 WAR

Arizona is only 1.5 games ahead of Colorado.
Right now, I'd pick Tulo because in addition to his stats, he's made so many highlight reel defensive plays on Baseball Tonight.

But choosing a "frontrunner" for an MVP in early June is ridiculous. So many things happen over the next few months, and an MVP is usually not apparent until the last few weeks of the season.
The NL MVP could be a player hitting .280 with 7 homers right now, who explodes in the second half of the season.

hive17 said:

When you guys say "Cargo" are you talking about Carlos Gomez, or Gonzales? Because both are having a great year; Gonzo with the power, but Gomez has power and leads the NL in WAR.

Just curious.

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Yes but I'm sure you know this - the Brewers suck. Same reason why Segura is not being mentioned.