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Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
9,446
170
So with the season coming to an end it's time (in my mind) to come up with an off-season shipping list, those players I want to target over the winter months while the market is a little soft. I've moved away from looking at prospects so I no longer have to really worry about spiking the market. There's usually enough to go around with the established stars. Below are some of the guys I am targeting/considering. Would love to hear thoughts.

Albert Pujols
He's 8 homers away from 500, and with the time off to get healthy there's reason to imagine he could be back to close to what he was in St. Louis. His cards have dropped a ton since their peaks, and he's a guy who could provide very healthy returns with very little downside. My favorite has always been his SPx RC Auto which at its peak was a $1200 card. I just got a BGS 9/9 for under 3 bills.

Prince Fielder
As I posted a little while back, I was able to snag a Fielder Ultimate Collection Auto PSA 10 for just a hair over $200. That's basically his best RC Autograph at a very small fraction of the what the going rate used to be. Fielder had a very disappointing season this year and there are always concerns about his weight, but he was going through a difficult divorce and he never seems to miss a game. (And he still had pretty decent numbers.) For the right price I think he's worth pursuing, although I'd be selective about which cards to buy (the 2002 Prospect Premieres 9.5 auto's still get $100, which is not nearly the drop that other cards have seen.)

David Price
This one is a little more interesting in my mind. You have two things going on here with a pitcher who played poorly this season (and was injured) as well as a player who will likely be traded. Considering that over the last few years he has been one of the best 5 pitchers in baseball, that he is young, prices are low and he will likely be traded to a team who can afford to pay him (read: big market) and it could be a nice combination.

Hanley Ramirez
His season was eipc but I don't think that people are sold on whether he is "back." If you assume he is and look at his previous struggles as an aberration you have a player on a HOF trajectory. If you assume this season was the aberration than he's a decent player who had a few great seasons and a great partial season this year. If you think there's a decent chance of the former, this offseason is probably the time to buy as another season that looks anything like this past one will entrench him amongst the best hitters in baseball. (Of course, there's more risk here than some of the other players.)

Carlos Beltran
This offseason may not be the time but I've been trying to determine what cards of his people might chase if he is able to maintain a high level of play a couple more seasons and becomes a legit HOF candidate. His 1995 RC card had the wrong player on it, he doesn't have a true RC Auto, and was not in any of the classic early auto sets. The closest thing he has is his 2000 SPx Auto, which IMO probably has the best chance of standing out amongst the crowd (although buying now is not smart, wait until after the Series is over if you want one as prices have jumped).

Quite frankly Beltran has almost no cards that sell well. I took a flyer on this one for $50 as an early and really rare card, though I don't really expect to see much from it if I ever decide to move it:
$(KGrHqF,!lEFJFu9PnqMBSY717(Gqg~~60_3.JPG
 

longbomberz

New member
Aug 11, 2008
1,422
0
If you feel the Cubs are getting close and believe this season was just a lost one for both, I think Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo could be interesting at their newly depressed values. If they play better and it coincides with some of the youngsters coming up I think there could be some upside.
 

Austin

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
5,706
41
Dallas, Texas
Topnotchsy, have you been successful making a profit by selling older veterans' rookies?

I remember you lost a lot when you sold your collection of a while back, although the timing wasn't ideal.

It just seems that veterans' rookies rarely rise in value, once the hype has worn off.
Also, once a player has a perception of being damaged (like Pujols), or chronically injured (like Crawfors) or perceived to be out of shape and past his prime (like Fielder), or has a bad attitude/doesn't try (like Hanley), then collectors' confidence is gone and prices remain stagnant, no matter how good the player still is.

I'm not being critical, just curious. Have you had luck selling veterans' rookies for profit?
 

tchronis24

New member
Oct 5, 2013
92
0
These look like pretty good players to target but not sure about Hanley. People just havent been so excited about him even with his great year. The two times you wouldbve thought his cards wouldve sky rocketed was when he waS traded and when he came back and started playing well but they didnt rise at all.
 

Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
9,446
170
Topnotchsy, have you been successful making a profit by selling older veterans' rookies?

I remember you lost a lot when you sold your collection of a while back, although the timing wasn't ideal.

It just seems that veterans' rookies rarely rise in value, once the hype has worn off.
Also, once a player has a perception of being damaged (like Pujols), or chronically injured (like Crawfors) or perceived to be out of shape and past his prime (like Fielder), or has a bad attitude/doesn't try (like Hanley), then collectors' confidence is gone and prices remain stagnant, no matter how good the player still is.

I'm not being critical, just curious. Have you had luck selling veterans' rookies for profit?

It's absolutely a fair question, especially if I am trying to advise that it is a way to make money.

Over the years I have done very, very well investing in veteran players. I can say with some confidence that I have probably made money on most of the big name players and on many I have done extremely well (some players a few times over). Most recently I purchased close to $4000 of Clayton Kershaw items as the season was winding down and sold the vast majority for a very nice mark-up. Until a few weeks before the end of the season the prevailing tone was "he's been great and prices haven't jumped, so there's nothing that will change that." A little MVP talk and Cy Young talk (and comparisons to Koufax) changed that quickly.

When it came to me selling out on my collection, there were a few things to note. One was as you mention that the timing was awful, dumping everything at once regardless of how the players was doing. The collection also included many of the "busts" over the years. Keep in mind that most of the players I had spiked over the years and I was able to sell for a really nice profit. The ones that were left were largely the busts, but to get a perspective you would have to have compared that to all the cards I sold for really nice profits over the years. Still, I never try to imply that I am certain that a player will go up, just that I believe that there is a good chance (with relatively low risk). Even selling then though in many cases I did quite well based on the prices I had paid initially. It's also worth noting that in some cases the cards were more collection than investment (Crawford is certainly an example of that) while in others the investment was simply a poor idea and something that I learned from.

Regarding your second point, it is certainly true that some of the "shine" has worn off, and I don't advocate buying anyone. (As a matter of fact Crawford who you mention who is probably my favorite player is not mentioned.) But there are times when the drop is beyond what it should be, when people have shifted attention and prices have reached a point where there is a ton of upside. That is what I believe with the players above. Fielder had a rough season but he's a great player, who had offseason reasons to struggle, and he's on a perennially good team. IMO opinion there's a great chance he rebounds. Pujols is approaching a milestone career number and no one is paying attention etc. etc.

To highlight a couple of examples of players whose cards went through the roof after a big drop:

Miguel Cabrera - Obviously he's moved into a different stratosphere, but many might not realize the beating his cards took after his first season in Detroit. I believe that most assumed his hobby value was done (even for his Topps Traded RC Auto)

Derek Jeter - Played for years and years cruising along with solid values but towards the end prices slipped a lot. When he reached 3000 hits prices pretty much doubled on key RC cards.

Mariano Rivera - Rookie cards and early autographs (from the 90's) have seen huge % jumps.



These look like pretty good players to target but not sure about Hanley. People just havent been so excited about him even with his great year. The two times you wouldbve thought his cards wouldve sky rocketed was when he waS traded and when he came back and started playing well but they didnt rise at all.

With Hanley I think people need to be convinced that he is once again one of the best players in baseball. There was certainly a jump in prices over this season as he played well, but nothing close to what they once were. I believe if he has an MVP type season next year we will see that bounce. I've seen this play out in the past numerous times. With a player who was once good but dropped off the market needs sustained performance to be convinced that it is legit.
 

jcmint

Super Moderator
Aug 7, 2008
5,677
2
I cant see Hanley ever coming back to hobby prominence.

Mariano was such an easy chance to invest in the last few years. I bought nearly 100 of his 92 bowman and graded out 25% gems and the rest primarily 9's. It was the easiest money that not many saw. I always wondered why more people didnt see that train coming a few years ago.

Early Jeter rare autos took off. Anyone who bought the rare cards up can name their prices these days. I bought some of the rare ones like the
97 donruss sigs century
98 same
96 leaf gold auto
2000 autographics purple auto /50
autographics /50
97 bowmans best atomic and ref autos.
2000 ud legendary sigs /61
these are some of the examples of his rarer autos that have really skyrocketed.

Its tough to sit and think of the next guy to invest in. Its even tougher to have the rocks to roll the dice and go all in.

Although I would never buy him one would think Big Sloppi could see some real nice prices soon
 

rsmath

Active member
Nov 8, 2008
6,086
1
I cant see Hanley ever coming back to hobby prominence.

If Hanley has great seasons to come and his cards still aren't moving up much price-wise, I wonder if it'll be because there is too much HamRam autos in the hobby or if the price appreciation will only come if he is voted into the Hall of Fame.

I have 2 of his cert autos in my PC and IMHO they were very cheap 2-3 years ago for whatever reason - could have been lots of supply of his cert autos or they feature him in a Marlins uniform. If they were pricey, I certainly wouldn't have added them to my PC as I'm a budget collector. If they continue to be cheap, I may add another one of him shown in a Dodgers uniform because I'm glad he's a Dodger and have had a lot of fun watching him play from when he came back in June to how he performed through August.
 

Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
9,446
170
I cant see Hanley ever coming back to hobby prominence.

Mariano was such an easy chance to invest in the last few years. I bought nearly 100 of his 92 bowman and graded out 25% gems and the rest primarily 9's. It was the easiest money that not many saw. I always wondered why more people didnt see that train coming a few years ago.

Early Jeter rare autos took off. Anyone who bought the rare cards up can name their prices these days. I bought some of the rare ones like the
...

Its tough to sit and think of the next guy to invest in. Its even tougher to have the rocks to roll the dice and go all in.

Although I would never buy him one would think Big Sloppi could see some real nice prices soon
Regarding Hanley, if he can return to prominence I view him as similar to Miggy when he moved to Detroit. The love will return simply because of the level of performance. People forget that for a few seasons Hanley was almost universally viewed as one of the top 2-3 hitters in baseball (right there after Pujols). This past season he had an OPS+ of 190 which is insane, even if it was only over half a season. If he is back, there's a lot of potential in my opinion.

With Jeter it was also his SP RC's which were about the easiest card to buy into because of the sheer volume. I'll admit that I had hopes for Arod the same way and had done some buying in, but that obviously did not work out (to be fair it was after the first steroid issues had knocked down prices and I figured that was the end of that). After Arod and Braun I'm not sure I would consider anyone who had connections to steroids, so Ortiz may is a guy I've looked at, but keep passing on. I actually think that right now the player in the most similar situation to that (historic milestone that makes people take notice) is Pujols.

Your last point is definitely true. In hindsight a lot of things are obvious, but was a person confident enough to get in from the beginning. Even with the list above, while I like them all, I'll likely be going in at varying degrees.

If Hanley has great seasons to come and his cards still aren't moving up much price-wise, I wonder if it'll be because there is too much HamRam autos in the hobby or if the price appreciation will only come if he is voted into the Hall of Fame.

I have 2 of his cert autos in my PC and IMHO they were very cheap 2-3 years ago for whatever reason - could have been lots of supply of his cert autos or they feature him in a Marlins uniform. If they were pricey, I certainly wouldn't have added them to my PC as I'm a budget collector. If they continue to be cheap, I may add another one of him shown in a Dodgers uniform because I'm glad he's a Dodger and have had a lot of fun watching him play from when he came back in June to how he performed through August.

With Hanley, because of his ups and downs (amongst other reasons) the market for his autographs has settled at a pretty low point and with so many certified autos out there is it is hard for much change to occur.
 

Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
9,446
170
For me at this point I've decided on Pujols as my primary focus and began picking up RC Auto's. With 500 homers right around the corner and hopefully a healthy comeback season, I think it's a low risk, high upside proposition.
 

jcmint

Super Moderator
Aug 7, 2008
5,677
2
I have to say I completely disagree with Pujols. His best days are clearly gone. He was on such a plateau he can only go down from year. Leaving the Cards didnt help him much with collectors. The buy in is heavy his play is not gonna get better. He has all the numbers and all that I get it but I cant see his already very high prices go higher w/o tearing the cover off the ball. big layout big gamble.


For me at this point I've decided on Pujols as my primary focus and began picking up RC Auto's. With 500 homers right around the corner and hopefully a healthy comeback season, I think it's a low risk, high upside proposition.
 

Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
9,446
170
I have to say I completely disagree with Pujols. His best days are clearly gone. He was on such a plateau he can only go down from year. Leaving the Cards didnt help him much with collectors. The buy in is heavy his play is not gonna get better. He has all the numbers and all that I get it but I cant see his already very high prices go higher w/o tearing the cover off the ball. big layout big gamble.

Guess time will tell. With SPx RC autos down at $225 raw and $300 for BGS 9/9's I think they are a steal. We're still talking one of the best 5-10 hitters of all-time, 500 homers is around the corner and I think he can still be a well above average player. He's already passing big names on many of the all time lists which always draws attention. I can't see them dropping much (outside of a steroids-type issue) so in my mind its pretty low risk. It's not the gimme investment Jeter or Mo were but I'm comfortable. Picked up 3 SPx and an SP auto BGS 9.5 so far and will decide how much further to go in as the offseason progresses.
 

Krom

New member
Jun 13, 2010
2,840
0
Long Island
I have to say I completely disagree with Pujols. His best days are clearly gone. He was on such a plateau he can only go down from year. Leaving the Cards didnt help him much with collectors. The buy in is heavy his play is not gonna get better. He has all the numbers and all that I get it but I cant see his already very high prices go higher w/o tearing the cover off the ball. big layout big gamble.
I agree with Jc, Pujols is too risky at this point. Between the high buy in, his recent performance and the risk of roids he is way too risky to invest in.
 

jcmint

Super Moderator
Aug 7, 2008
5,677
2
The buy in is high compared to the potential pay off. I think if he hits 30 hrs this year his cards will stay where they are. If he hits 40+ and tears the cover off the ball they will move but I just cant see them moving all that high. I would also bring up supply and demand here. Pujols has a ton of rookies and plenty of auto rc's. I still just dont see it.

I agree with Jc, Pujols is too risky at this point. Between the high buy in, his recent performance and the risk of roids he is way too risky to invest in.
 

Krom

New member
Jun 13, 2010
2,840
0
Long Island
The buy in is high compared to the potential pay off. I think if he hits 30 hrs this year his cards will stay where they are. If he hits 40+ and tears the cover off the ball they will move but I just cant see them moving all that high. I would also bring up supply and demand here. Pujols has a ton of rookies and plenty of auto rc's. I still just dont see it.

Exactly and if he performs poorly again they may even take a hit. As Ichiro gets closer to 3000 hits here i think his Ultimate Rc auto is a better buy then the Pujols BC auto. There are 1/2 as many and there isn't the grey cloud over his head as there is Pujols. I think that is a big reason his cards haven't moved much in recent years despite compiling some good #s .

As much as i am not a Yankees fan Jeter, Mariano, Ichiro (even if Yankee for not long) all are better investments than Pujols (to varying degrees).

Edit - just check and am shocked how much of a hit the Pujols BC has taken. Bgs 9s have sold as low as 2k - but to be fair the 2k had a 9 auto. I would not take that as a great time to buy as they could continue in that direction.
 
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coltsfan23

New member
Aug 7, 2008
4,134
0
MN
David Price & Hanley Ramirez have been on my list as well; I'm not as sure on Pujols. There are clearly actual fundamental reasons why Pujols items have dropped significantly, as his performance has taken a hit, so it's not necessarily as easy of a call as someone like Price (ST trade catalyst) & Hanley (Incredibly low prices). At these prices, I think it's worth picking up a few of his better RC Autographs. I wouldn't be going all in, though, becase, it's more of a valuation play than anything. I agree with jcmint that, unless he hits 40+ HR's and gets on a complete hot streak, there really isn't as much of an investment catalyst (I don't know if the 500 HR thing will drive prices way higher, as it's priced in that he'll get there). Nonetheless, differing opinions make the market and he'll be one of the more interesting ones to track this offseason.
 

jcmint

Super Moderator
Aug 7, 2008
5,677
2
I agree that Price could be the next guy to POP. Great choice I have thought about his potential for awhile now. HanRAM I just don't see his stuff ever getting to anywhere near where it was. He fell out of favor really bad. IMO I wouldn't put a dollar into him. As Top said time will tell.

David Price & Hanley Ramirez have been on my list as well; I'm not as sure on Pujols. There are clearly actual fundamental reasons why Pujols items have dropped significantly, as his performance has taken a hit, so it's not necessarily as easy of a call as someone like Price (ST trade catalyst) & Hanley (Incredibly low prices). At these prices, I think it's worth picking up a few of his better RC Autographs. I wouldn't be going all in, though, becase, it's more of a valuation play than anything. I agree with jcmint that, unless he hits 40+ HR's and gets on a complete hot streak, there really isn't as much of an investment catalyst (I don't know if the 500 HR thing will drive prices way higher, as it's priced in that he'll get there). Nonetheless, differing opinions make the market and he'll be one of the more interesting ones to track this offseason.
 

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