Oh, so THAT'S why my '91 cards are worthless

BBCgalaxee · Oct 31, 2014

I've always thought that 1991 was the year when the most cards were made across the four sports. In other words, the last year when nearly everything was mass produced.

Reading a '91 "Baseball Cards" magazine, I came upon these numbers for baseball:

Topps made 5 million of each card
Score made nearly as many
Upper Deck, Fleer and Donruss made around 3 million of each card.

ASTROBURN · Oct 31, 2014

Holy crap, thats a lot of cards

DaClyde · Oct 31, 2014

I'll have to see if I have that issue. Given some of the comments on the thread about obsolete hobby terms, I have to wonder if the 5M is the total run or just what went into packs? Does that include factory sets, vending boxes, cut cases?

BBCgalaxee · Oct 31, 2014

DaClyde said:
I'll have to see if I have that issue. Given some of the comments on the thread about obsolete hobby terms, I have to wonder if the 5M is the total run or just what went into packs? Does that include factory sets, vending boxes, cut cases?

This issue has strawberry on the cover.
It doesn't make mention of ANY specific packaging.

Honestly, I've always thought that 4.1 million of every topps card was the actual product run. I know I've read that in the past.

But I never expected score to be so high. I actually think its easier to find 91 Upper Deck sets and boxes than score.

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homerun28aa · Oct 31, 2014

That's crazy to think about - Topps made 5 million of each card...

BBCgalaxee said:
I've always thought that 1991 was the year when the most cards were made across the four sports. In other words, the last year when nearly everything was mass produced.

Reading a '91 "Baseball Cards" magazine, I came upon these numbers for baseball:

Topps made 5 million of each card
Score made nearly as many
Upper Deck, Fleer and Donruss made around 3 million of each card.

DaClyde · Oct 31, 2014

homerun28aa said:
That's crazy to think about - Topps made 5 million of each card...

Sort of puts into perspective why Classic was issuing draft pick sets "limited" to 365,000 sets. Is Topps current total print run per base card anywhere near that today?

Yanks2151 · Oct 31, 2014

I thought the numbers would be higher because it seemed like I myself have 5 million of each brand in storage. Okay that's a stretch. I wonder how much is still sealed. I guess that's why we look for variations and errors with that stuff.

MansGame · Oct 31, 2014

That's crazy.

Dilferules · Oct 31, 2014

DaClyde said:
Sort of puts into perspective why Classic was issuing draft pick sets "limited" to 365,000 sets. Is Topps current total print run per base card anywhere near that today?

I doubt the print run for each Topps base card is anywhere near 365,000 these days. For example, in jumbo packs you get 1 gold per and what, 45 base cards at the most? If the ratio of 45 base cards for every 1 gold held true across all pack types that would mean 2,014 x 45 = 90,630 of each base card. But take into account that it doesn't measure complete sets and depending on the year and series hobby and retail packs could have ratios close to or far away from 45:1 so you have to add quite a bit on top of that. I'd still guess probably less than 150,000 of each base card (especially Series 2 and Update), almost certainly below 200,000. That means when there's a "crossover" card that non-collectors want like a Trout Topps Update RC it can sell for weirdly high levels that you wouldn't think a "junk base card" should sell for due to the low supply relative to the number of baseball fans out there.

Jaypers · Oct 31, 2014

BBCgalaxee said:
Oh, so THAT'S why my '91 cards are worthless

....unless they happen to have a Desert Shield logo.

IUjapander · Oct 31, 2014

I bet if you added up every card that topps makes in 2014 across all brands it is greater than 5 million.

Something to think about.

predatorkj · Oct 31, 2014

IUjapander said:
I bet if you added up every card that topps makes in 2014 across all brands it is greater than 5 million.

Something to think about.

Yes...but where are the vast majority of these ending up?

Dilferules · Oct 31, 2014

IUjapander said:
I bet if you added up every card that topps makes in 2014 across all brands it is greater than 5 million.

Something to think about.

I severely doubt it. I ran calculations on one decently popular player, Yoenis Cespedes, for 2014. He was in a lot of base and inserts sets, plus a lot of GU and autographed issues. Most of these are gross overestimations so the total is likely far lower:

For Topps only, no Panini...

His total number of serial numbered cards produced in 2014 was 21,278 (this is counting multi-player cards)
If we say the most highly distributed sets are 200,000 base print run, he was in 4 that I consider very high print run: Bowman, Topps, 2 cards in Topps Update: 800,000
Next lower level of print run, estimated 100,000...could be way off but I bet it's far over for some: Bowman Chrome, Stadium Club, Ginter, Archives, Chrome, GQ, Heritage, Opening Day; 8 sets = 800,000
More limited sets at 50,000 print run...this has to be way over for some of these but I'm erring on the side of overproduction: Chipz, Mini, Museum, Stickers, Tribute, Triple Threads; 6 sets = 300,000
A couple of low-run specialty sets at 10,000, again way over in one case but just an estimate: A's Topps, Turkey Red; 2 sets = 20,000
Then I did complete ballpark estimates for all unnumbered inserts/parallels based on how difficult they are to find relative to base cards and/or numbered inserts:
35,000: 8 = 280,000
10,000: 10 = 100,000
5,000: 18 = 90,000
1,500: 45 = 67,500
100: 17 = 1,700

Grand total "highball" estimate for Topps Yoenis Cespedes cards in 2014: 2,480,478. Since I overestimated on a lot I wouldn't be surprised at all if it were below 2,000,000. And keep in mind that we're judging all 2014 Topps sets against just base 1991 Topps, not counting all of the other 1991 Topps cards like Stadium Club, various food issues, specialty sets, etc. Plus 1991 Topps was 5 million cards for 700+ players...Frank Thomas had 5 million and Lance Blankenship had 5 million. Whereas nowadays perhaps stars will have 2 or 3 million across all Topps brands, but the Lance Blankenships will have fewer than 500,000.

tribefan26 · Oct 31, 2014

IUjapander said:
I bet if you added up every card that topps makes in 2014 across all brands it is greater than 5 million.

Something to think about.

I don't think so - After Topps and base Bowman I don't think they make much that adds to the total - it is nothing like it was in 1991.

BBCgalaxee · Oct 31, 2014

Just consider what was made in 1991.

Wax boxes
Cello boxes
Rak pak boxes
Vending boxes
Jumbo packs
Cut cases
Factory sets
Plus huge dealers were able to order insane quantities of every card directly from topps.

D-Lite · Oct 31, 2014

IUjapander said:
I bet if you added up every card that topps makes in 2014 across all brands it is greater than 5 million.

Something to think about.

And those are just the Jake Marisnick autos.

bobthewondercat77 · Oct 31, 2014

Dilferules said:
I severely doubt it. I ran calculations on one decently popular player, Yoenis Cespedes, for 2014. He was in a lot of base and inserts sets, plus a lot of GU and autographed issues. Most of these are gross overestimations so the total is likely far lower:

For Topps only, no Panini...

His total number of serial numbered cards produced in 2014 was 21,278 (this is counting multi-player cards)
If we say the most highly distributed sets are 200,000 base print run, he was in 4 that I consider very high print run: Bowman, Topps, 2 cards in Topps Update: 800,000
Next lower level of print run, estimated 100,000...could be way off but I bet it's far over for some: Bowman Chrome, Stadium Club, Ginter, Archives, Chrome, GQ, Heritage, Opening Day; 8 sets = 800,000
More limited sets at 50,000 print run...this has to be way over for some of these but I'm erring on the side of overproduction: Chipz, Mini, Museum, Stickers, Tribute, Triple Threads; 6 sets = 300,000
A couple of low-run specialty sets at 10,000, again way over in one case but just an estimate: A's Topps, Turkey Red; 2 sets = 20,000
Then I did complete ballpark estimates for all unnumbered inserts/parallels based on how difficult they are to find relative to base cards and/or numbered inserts:
35,000: 8 = 280,000
10,000: 10 = 100,000
5,000: 18 = 90,000
1,500: 45 = 67,500
100: 17 = 1,700

Grand total "highball" estimate for Topps Yoenis Cespedes cards in 2014: 2,480,478. Since I overestimated on a lot I wouldn't be surprised at all if it were below 2,000,000. And keep in mind that we're judging all 2014 Topps sets against just base 1991 Topps, not counting all of the other 1991 Topps cards like Stadium Club, various food issues, specialty sets, etc. Plus 1991 Topps was 5 million cards for 700+ players...Frank Thomas had 5 million and Lance Blankenship had 5 million. Whereas nowadays perhaps stars will have 2 or 3 million across all Topps brands, but the Lance Blankenships will have fewer than 500,000.

Interesting. I do think this is the high end of what is possible, I would be surprised if there were 1M 2014 Cespedes in total honestly. I would guess that flagship Topps is the the only product that approaches 100,000 copies per card.

DeliciousBacon · Nov 1, 2014

BBCgalaxee said:
I've always thought that 1991 was the year when the most cards were made across the four sports. In other words, the last year when nearly everything was mass produced.

Reading a '91 "Baseball Cards" magazine, I came upon these numbers for baseball:

Topps made 5 million of each card
Score made nearly as many
Upper Deck, Fleer and Donruss made around 3 million of each card.

What's amazing about the 5 mil number for Topps is that cards like the Mark Whiten, Doug Drabek, and Chris Hoiles variations exist, and sell for as much as they do. If Topps caught those cards after just one-tenth of 1% of the cards had been printed, there'd still be 5,000 of each. One-hundreth of 1%, still 500 of each. I wonder how many of those really do exist.

TNP777 · Nov 1, 2014

Good Lord. If you put Score's print run at 4M per and add Topps' 5M per and UD, Donruss and Fleer's 3M per - you end up with 14,430,000,000. Over 14 billions base cards, and that's before you add on the other sets issued in '91 (list according to The Trading Card Database)

College

1991 Louisiana State Tigers Team Issue

Draft

Japanese League

Minor League

Oddball

mrniceguy1126 · Nov 1, 2014

D-Lite said:
And those are just the Jake Marisnick autos.

I was going to say Chaz Roe but yeah, that works too.

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