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So, uhh, what happened?

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cgilmo

Well-known member
Administrator
Aug 6, 2008
37,213
35
Alpharetta, Georgia, United States
These outrageous prices for unproven players' cards are dangerous for the hobby.

There's going to be a major crash in the prospecting world in a couple years when so many speculators leave in disgust from losing several thousands of dollars on their stashes, instead of the usual hundreds that prospectors used to lose.

There will always be prospecting, but the crazy amount of money these rookie cards now sell for can't be sustained, and prices for top prospects will drop to how they were a few years ago.

Most of you prospectors will brush this off, but the majority of you probably won't even be prospecting anymore in a few years because you'll realize you spent thousands of dollars on stashes of worthless rookie cards you can no longer sell.

It’s about balanced. Stay balanced in what you buy and keep an eye on the market. A decline like this won’t be sudden so you will have time to cut losses.


Sent from my iPhone using Freedom Card Board mobile app
 

JoshHamilton

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
12,205
320
There’s gonna be a crash because prices are way too high. Orange stars are now $5000+? My god. That used to be Super territory. It’s nothing against prospecting, but markets that double or triple in a relatively short amount of time often crash, especially with something as volatile as athlete production.

Congrats to everyone who made money in the last few years. Looks like all first year/RC cards have exploded. Lol I gotta look through my auto box sometime
 

smapdi

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
4,397
221
I don't see that it will crash. People have been saying that exact same thing for at least 15 years, and it has been on an upward angle continuously. A long decline, of which there is no evidence as yet, is the most likely scenario. If everyone who has spent an ever-increasing amount of money on these things decides to sell at once and takes any offers, then it would crash. Maybe more realistically we reach a plateau where the top rookies sell for the same amount each year like it used to be. Worst case is that year over year less product sells, less product is opened, and the money cards sell for less. After 5 straight years of that, then I think you can say things have gone in the other direction and then possibly a crash is coming. But if they keep coming out with new guys who cause a frenzy, which happens not every year but pretty regularly, then I don't even see that decline happening.
 

joey12508

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
38,465
16,122
Winterfell
I use to buy yankee rookie auto's, not a main part of my collection and most if you had patience you could pick them up at a decent prices. But now at mortgage payment prices, ill stick to the retired guys.
 

Austin

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
5,706
41
Dallas, Texas
But if they keep coming out with new guys who cause a frenzy, which happens not every year but pretty regularly, then I don't even see that decline happening.
The problem is, there is a decreasing number of people in this hobby. It's getting smaller every year.
And when thousands of prospectors keep getting burned because they spent $200 to $500 on the latest hot prospect, they'll leave out of frustration and a realization that they wasted a fortune.

Before, when you lost $50 on a top prospect, not that big of a deal. But when people start losing hundreds of dollars per card, they start jumping ship.

When I wrote that the prospecting market will crash, I meant from its current state of ridiculous prices. It can't be sustained because even the 1% of prospects who become actual stars won't warrant the crazy prices that speculators are paying. Everyone's gambling for Trout prices.
 

forgerelli

Member
Apr 4, 2013
383
8
whomever you pull is clearly worth more than auction value because.. well just ****ing because.

So f**king true. I will over pay for a Mariano I want but some of these people go through some insane mental gymnastics to convince themselves their card is worth 3-4 times the going rate. Some recent favorites:

It's a dynasty card which is the most popular set Topps has ever put out!
It's a patch from a letter on the front of the jersey which is way more valuable than a patch from the back. (Yankees patches are almost all 1 color).
This is a super nice auto and worth more than his other autos. (When's the last time Mariano did a bad auto?)
This is a Panini card, Mariano signs more for Topps (He doesn't) so it's rarer....

Scott F
 

AnthonyCorona

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2014
9,600
68
Modesto, CA

PeteD

Active member
Oct 15, 2009
2,175
17
Southern Ont.
still top 10 for my stadium sells

I have a stack of Freeman's i've been saving up for no good reason to dump on ebay one day...Topps, Bowman & BChrome. If interested i'd be happy to pass them off to you rather than a stranger on ebay. Lmk...
 

smapdi

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
4,397
221
The problem is, there is a decreasing number of people in this hobby. It's getting smaller every year.
And when thousands of prospectors keep getting burned because they spent $200 to $500 on the latest hot prospect, they'll leave out of frustration and a realization that they wasted a fortune.

How do you know this? I think it's the opposite, relative to 6-7 years ago. That's one reason for the price increases. Greater demand leads to greater prices. And when prices explode like they are, that attracts more people wanting to get in on it.

If there were a lot fewer people, Topps wouldn't have increased the print runs on many products by 40% over 2 years ago. I agree that if people lose thousands on a rookie card, they might get turned off to the hobby. But that's always been the reason to nay-say prospecting in general.
 

bstanwood

Well-known member
Sep 24, 2016
3,666
332
Mystic, CT
I'm not a prospector, and I kind of hate it because it drives up the prices on most new release autographs to some degree. I don't see prospecting losing steam in the near future, maybe some day but I think for the next 5-10 years it's here to stay. I would prefer the hobby was collector driven with profits a tiny part of it but that just isn't how most things work.
 

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