Thoughts on investing in vintage hof over the long haul

I'm thinking about selling a few modern high value cards and re-investing that money into vintage. My thought is I'd like to keep the money in my collection, but thinking vintage is a safer bet to maintain value over the long haul. For the sake of argument, lets say the value of the vintage card is around 2K somewhere. Something like a '55 Clemente PSA 6, or '33 Goudey Ruth PSA 3.5...something like that, that will by far be your best card both in wow factor and price.

My thought is these types of cards don't really go down in value, only up. The player can't go on a hot streak, can't win an award, can't get elected to HOF again, and more than likely cant die again. Those of course being the main milestones where a current players stuff would go up/down throughout the course of his career. I don't follow the price path of these types of cards on a close enough basis, so was curious of everyone's opinion on going this route.

I guess this could also lead to the question of where you think the card market is going to be in 10/20/30+ years from now. (which I know has been talked about on here before)

i have some mottos...

"Dead Guys Rarely Dissapoint"
"Old Is Gold"

i think we as collectors go through many phases of collecting, depending on how long we've been at it.

Lmao.. I think vintage is the way to go. Especially HOF.

I would agree, a dead Hof'er will not disappoint you...

It's a safe-r investment, but not sure if the prices will continue to go up indefinitely. A majority of the demand of these vintage cards is from older collectors, the baby boomers who grew up idolizing Mantle, Musial, and Mays. Once they leave the hobby to the younger generation, I can't see there being the same level of demand from the guys who grew up with chrome rookie cards and refractors. Values won't plummet but interest will be a fraction of what it was due to the lack of nostalgia with those particular players and those cards.

Personally, I have been meaning to get into vintage for years. One of the things on my "to do" list has been to research prices/sales from 50s and 60s Topps and better understand the market. I never get around to it and shy away from the vintage tables at shows. I would love to cross of a lot of the 50s and 60s Yankees from my lists.

Im not certain you could out pace inflation.

I have no scientific proof but I think the following will be HOT in the near future:

1954 Topps - Aaron SIGNED
1951 Bowman - Mays SIGNED

jbhofmann said:

I have no scientific proof but I think the following will be HOT in the near future:

1954 Topps - Aaron SIGNED
1951 Bowman - Mays SIGNED

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Bonus money for clean aaron

I used to think that vintage would fade when that generation moved on, but Babe Ruth's recent resurgence shows otherwise.

It sounds stupid that Ruth was underrated but up until maybe a year ago prices reflected that. The guy has really no mainstream RC and his most recognizable cards come from the last decade of his career. By no means am I a Ruth market expert but I just don't see his items ever dipping to a low level.

Yes. I went HOF in 2006 and never looked back and don't think I would be as satisfied or remain as interested in baseball card collecting if it hadn't been for vintage

I wouldn't say "investing" is the right word but I do think pre war has a good chance of maintaining its value and increasing a bit. I think an investment in a mutual fund or stock would be an investment but a baseball card is a fun place to park some extra money, plus the odds are it might do better than the cash in your checking account. But from my own experience of buying vintage you always pay a premium for the nicer examples and with ebay fees on the sale most of my vintage would have to go up several hundred dollars just to break even. However I don't regret any of my purchases and I bet you will feel the same way.

Of all cards I think vintage would be the best bet. But I don't think the card market will be doing real good in 10/20/30+ years. But I hope I'm wrong.

I would not be surprised to see the overall vintage market soften as time moves on, but the biggest cards continue to increase in price. I think the number of collectors chasing vintage items will go down as the memories of their time on the field fade into history but the icons and truly rare items will be fought for when they turn up.

jbhofmann said:

I used to think that vintage would fade when that generation moved on, but Babe Ruth's recent resurgence shows otherwise.

It sounds stupid that Ruth was underrated but up until maybe a year ago prices reflected that. The guy has really no mainstream RC and his most recognizable cards come from the last decade of his career. By no means am I a Ruth market expert but I just don't see his items ever dipping to a low level.

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Maybe people are looking at him a little differently now with all the saber metrics in the game today.

Topnotchsy said:

I would not be surprised to see the overall vintage market soften as time moves on, but the biggest cards continue to increase in price. I think the number of collectors chasing vintage items will go down as the memories of their time on the field fade into history but the icons and truly rare items will be fought for when they turn up.

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I was thinking along the same lines. There' always going to be a market for the bigger ticket items.
[MENTION=4092]mmier118[/MENTION] - Yes I agree, the term "investment" probably wasn't the correct term but more of a way to store your money and being able to sell later to at least get out what you put in.

Zan said:

Yes. I went HOF in 2006 and never looked back and don't think I would be as satisfied or remain as interested in baseball card collecting if it hadn't been for vintage

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I wasn't interested in vintage until topps did its Million Card Giveaway back in 2010 I believe. So I'm fairly new to the vintage game. That's what got me interested in it, and while I still like my modern, there's something nostalgic about owning something from 50/75/100 years old of the greats of the game.

I enjoy collecting vintage for the simple fact of owning something that depicts a part of baseball history.

I have been a vintage collector from the start (going back 40+ years) and have never regretted it. I will pick up a pack or two of the new, shiney stuff and every once in awhile I will get something that will get me back the price I paid for the pack and then some but vintage, for me is the waay to go.

There are many vintage collectors here so let us know if you need some pointers.

swish54_99 said:

I was thinking along the same lines. There' always going to be a market for the bigger ticket items.
@mmier118 - Yes I agree, the term "investment" probably wasn't the correct term but more of a way to store your money and being able to sell later to at least get out what you put in.

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Yes, if those are your goals and expectations I don't think you'll be disappointed. Plus they are pretty cool to have and look at. Just take your time and learn as much as you can, it takes a little time to figure out exactly what you want (I'm still learning lol) I've learned I prefer 4's over 3's (all things included) and won't go lower than a nice 3 on pre-war stuff. Don't overlook the E series cards, I like the E-90's and have patience, once I decide on what my next card to buy is it usually takes me six months to a year to find the right copy at the right price. This is all on the pre war stuff 50's stuff isn't as hard to find.