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When cards serial #'ed /100 might as well be #'ed /1

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mouschi

Featured Contributor, Bridging the Gap, Senior Mem
May 18, 2012
3,105
170
In a quest to find more of the newer Canseco cards, I've found that many of the serial numbered stuff (as high as 100-200) are simply not available for sale online.

In the past few months, I have come a long way in understanding the twisted mind of a player collector. It isn't just a function of how much money you want to throw out there. That is far from reality. I thought if you had money, you could make quick work of your want list and stake your flag at the top of super-collector mountain, proclaiming you as the man.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrjwaqZfjIY

Wrong.

Even though we have more avenues than ever to pick up our favorite cards in today's global marketplace, it can still be like finding a needle in a haystack.

Why is this?

A few theories:

1) A lot of product never got opened (I'd absolutely LOVE to know the numbers on various product print runs and how much was actually sold!)

2) Many serial #ed parallels look similar to their non-numbered counterparts and have been lost forever in the vast sea of base cards, rarely to be touched again.

I'm not sure if many people have seen this sort of thing before, but there are honestly millions upon millions of cards that literally may never even be thumbed through again ... let alone for a specific player for your needs. I've personally seen and heard of tons of stockpiles like this. Out of the millions of cards I have sold off in the past several years, I didn't look through the majority of them either - there simply isn't enough time in life to do this sort of thing.

3) They are slowly transforming into a brick-o-cards.

worthless.jpg


If you have had un-sleeved glossy cards in a box together in a non-climate controlled area, or any area that has stuff stacked on them, you are familiar with this.

Again, I sure wish there were a way to know print runs and how much went unsold. You never know when a card that was # to 100 only may only have 20-30 out there recognized for what they are.

An example is the 2002 Donruss Fan Club series. I thought I had all #/100 copies

2002 Donruss Fan Club Credits #/100 #121
2002 Donruss Fan Club Credits #/100 #282
2002 Donruss Best of Fan Club Spotlight #/100 #121
2002 Donruss Best of Fan Club Spotlight #/100 #282

As it turns out, I was wrong. I have NO credits versions, and THREE EACH of the best of!

What is going on? How did this happen???

I believe the 2010 Exquisite cards were #/75 or similar as well, and yet only a few exist.

This could get interesting, I think. Not all is as it seems. Heck, I'm seeing some serial numbered cards outselling the same card with a relic embedded on them.

Obviously, this isn't the norm, but it seems to be happening more and more these days. Never in a million years would I have ever thought this would have happened, but it does.

Relic cards have seemingly flooded the market, and while there will ALWAYS be a market for them (because let's face it ... they are awesome!) they were/are rarely, if ever overlooked like some serial numbered parallels are.

15 or more years have passed since the first relic card hit the market, and ever since, collectors have been grabbing them up like crazy. Nowadays, collectors are looking in their collections and saying...

"Wait a second - they made a blue, red and green version of the same card with no relic on it? Cool! Time to hit ebay and pick 'em up! The relic card was $20, so surely the non-relic versions are easy to find and only $1-5 each!"

So you hit ebay, and...

serial.jpg


Days turn into weeks, and weeks into months.

Nothing.

Then finally one comes up - for higher than what you paid for your relic card. You have a choice of either waiting for the next version of it to pop up (which literally may not happen again) or cough up the extra dough. If you want to get almost all of the cards of the player you collect, this scenario could play out a hundred times over the next decade. Either you pay higher than you expect, or you simply don't get the card.

uoxul0.jpg


As a numbers guy, (I'm saying this in a roundabout way for the third time, I know) I sure would LOVE to know if there is a truly solid way to determine at least some sort of an idea ... not necessarily the print runs, because I think they are accurate ... but rather that availability of certain cards that have not been lost in the sea of base.

How would the value to you and others be changed if you found out that one mid 00's donruss insert had a print run of 100 but only 30 out there were "gettable"?

Don't get me started on the black hole of 90's cards that is pacific. They had so many parallels and some were not numbered, but INSANELY tough to grab, making even the most super of collectors fall to their knees and cry.

What higher serial numbered cards have you been chasing that might as well seem to be #/5 or less? I'm curious to hear your experiences and theories.
 
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1st4040

Well-known member
Aug 10, 2008
5,918
105
New Bedford, Ma.
There are hundreds of unicorns out there.. you have to jump on every opportunity as if its your last when it comes to numbered stuff. I kicked myself for not buying the one 1997 SPx Gran Finale, a graded Fleer starting 9 and a couple other cards from the 90's because I felt they were priced above market at the time they were available for sale.. if I were still collecting today I would have gone all in(which isn't close to even what others would pay) on these types of cards knowing just how hard they are to obtain regardless of stated or numbered print runs. Competition on the best cards will always be there.. the days of steals and deals are much rarer.
 

jonebone

Member
Jan 3, 2011
391
0
MD
Well, you have to worry about cards being "lost", as well as some player collectors buying multiples. If a card is only /25 and some guys get 2 or 3 copies of it, then it gets that much harder.

You just have to decide what price you're willing to pay and stick to it. Cards are just cards, life will go on with or without them. Up to you to decide how bad you want something.
 

RStadlerASU22

Active member
Jan 2, 2013
8,881
11
I hadn't recalled ever seeing the 1999 UD Century Collection Die Cut Will Clark /100. I'm sure it has come up when I stepped away from the hobby , but def not like something with 100 available. I was able to land one last month offline and was very happy. I mean the card is 16 years old and it's the first one I had a chance at.

There are a few cards out there like the 97 Score Texas Rangers Premier Club that I have never seen. 18 years later its one I'd like.

Even though I was Supercollecting Clark in the 90s/early 00s , I had the thought process of , oh I'll add that later. Well the Clark market has gone up in both price and competition. So I regret not only buying 1 copy for myself but multiples of these types of things.

Ryan
 

gracecollector

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
6,559
215
Lake in the Hills, IL
Time x Scarcity x Demand = Collecting Challenge. Why would anyone assume that this stuff (low numbered 90's inserts) would be readily for sale? It isn't. You're lucky if one or two turn up per year if you're looking hard, less in some instances where demand is particularly high. Get 'em when the gettin's good.

I hadn't recalled ever seeing the 1999 UD Century Collection Die Cut Will Clark /100. I'm sure it has come up when I stepped away from the hobby , but def not like something with 100 available. I was able to land one last month offline and was very happy. I mean the card is 16 years old and it's the first one I had a chance at.

Ryan

Your problem is beyatches like me.

99UDCENTURYLEGENDS010.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS016.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS019.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS032.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS038.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS047.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS057.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS063.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS070.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS094.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS096.jpg
 

RStadlerASU22

Active member
Jan 2, 2013
8,881
11
Time x Scarcity x Demand = Collecting Challenge. Why would anyone assume that this stuff (low numbered 90's inserts) would be readily for sale? It isn't. You're lucky if one or two turn up per year if you're looking hard, less in some instances where demand is particularly high. Get 'em when the gettin's good.



Your problem is beyatches like me.

99UDCENTURYLEGENDS010.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS016.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS019.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS032.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS038.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS047.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS057.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS063.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS070.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS094.jpg
99UDCENTURYLEGENDS096.jpg

Hahah , and there is at least one Clark hoarder so he probably has the other 99.

Ryan
 
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joey12508

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
38,465
16,123
Winterfell
The 1996 Leaf Studio Silver Press Proof/100 could never figure out why the silver was/100 and the gold was /500. was a tough one to find.
 

RStadlerASU22

Active member
Jan 2, 2013
8,881
11
The 1996 Leaf Studio Silver Press Proof/100 could never figure out why the silver was/100 and the gold was /500. was a tough one to find.

Very tough , distribution in Magazine retail packs. I have only seen 1 Clark come up.

Ryan
 

shadowking86

Member
May 13, 2014
313
0
I completely understand what you are saying. Last year I picked up my Sandy Alomar, Jr. player collection and started focusing on it after years of being just a Red Sox team collector. I did have a Jason Varitek focus that I am still searching for some parallel cards of. But doing the Alomar collection several years after he retired has lead to a lot of difficulty in finding some of the serial-numbered cards.

Some of the cards I am finding it very hard to find are the following:
1. 1998 Leaf Rookies and Stars Longevity/50. I have seen this pop up just once in the last year and I was outbid. The card sold for more than $20.00 which I was completely taken by surprise on.

2. 2005 Topps Rookie Cup Blue/50. I have never seen this one come up.

3. 1998 Fleer Tradition Classic '63/63. Another one I have never seen.

4. 2006 Upper Deck Special FX Red/50 and Purple/150. I have not seen these show up either. This one is particularly bothersome since Alomar has so few cards with the Dodgers and these both picture him with LA.
 

DeliciousBacon

Well-known member
Apr 23, 2011
3,444
94
Warwick, RI
A few years back, I bought some packs of 2002 Donruss Fan Club, and the cards were completely ruined. If there's unopened boxes of this stuff sitting around, they're full of stuck-together junk.

If I'm not mistaken, that was a retail product. That's where the really tough stuff is, all those near-worthless, one-shot retail products from the mid 2000's. 2003 Upper Deck Victory Purple are /50, but might as well be /5. I stumbled on a Palmeiro for less than $1 on COMC a while back, and that's it. A Bobby Abreu went for $8 recently, his plates go for about that much!
 

mouschi

Featured Contributor, Bridging the Gap, Senior Mem
May 18, 2012
3,105
170
I know *I'm* the new one in this whole area, coming from being strictly a dealer here, but I'm glad to hear we are all singing the same tune, and I'm just preaching to the choir.

Some cards that you all have mentioned, I picked up from [MENTION=2239]1st4040[/MENTION] that I paid more for than I thought I would originally. The 1996 Studio Silver for instance - I kept thinking to myself why on earth is this not a $5 card? Sure, it is nice and all, but jeesh - there are 99 other copies out there! I *HIGHLY* doubt that. Paul, correct me if I'm wrong, but as you have been collecting for years and years, I believe you had said you only found one that came up for sale ... the one you got.

The other was the Topps Blue rookie cup - I grabbed that from him too, thinking the same thing ... it is #/50 ... why so high? Same thing.

A few weeks ago, I got pm'ed by [MENTION=7109]RAZOR-Z[/MENTION] because the 1999 Century Legends die cut #/100 showed up on ebay (don't look down on me for having someone tell me about something on ebay - I was eating dinner and get the stink eye from the wifey if I check my phone at the table, k? :)) That was a rare instance that I think I clicked buy it now when a best offer button was present. Soooo purty.

One of the many, many rainbows I'm working on is the 2000 Topps Tek. I have all the base and one gold. I'm probably not going to see ALL of the gold parallels (they are #/10 each) but I am sure at some point, I'll be able to get the other colors, as they are #/80 each. I have the blue and the red is pending. I *just* missed the green by a week of getting into this, but such is life!
 

1st4040

Well-known member
Aug 10, 2008
5,918
105
New Bedford, Ma.
I know *I'm* the new one in this whole area, coming from being strictly a dealer here, but I'm glad to hear we are all singing the same tune, and I'm just preaching to the choir.

Some cards that you all have mentioned, I picked up from @1st4040 that I paid more for than I thought I would originally. The 1996 Studio Silver for instance - I kept thinking to myself why on earth is this not a $5 card? Sure, it is nice and all, but jeesh - there are 99 other copies out there! I *HIGHLY* doubt that. Paul, correct me if I'm wrong, but as you have been collecting for years and years, I believe you had said you only found one that came up for sale ... the one you got.

Copies may have surfaced back in the very early days of Ebay when I wasn't actively buying but I bought the only copy I've ever seen offered for sale. it was a PSA 9 and I broke it out as I don't care about grading. the guy that was selling had a registry set of these he was breaking up at the time. that was esentially the last card I needed to complete the Beckett run for 96 so I jumped all over it.

I kicked myself for not going after the 2009 UD buybacks when they were offered for sale too.. saw 2 of the regular card and one each of the other cards in the set and thinking well these will be plentiful as people open the product I'll wait.. well I'm still waiting. print runs unknown but damn these things have to be rare.
 
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smapdi

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
4,397
221
Collecting either players or sets going back into sets of yore, anything numbered under 500 is going to be a little tough. From, say, 5 years ago or more, you're looking for cards that either never were opened, or were opened and socked away. Years pass, people become disinterested, possibly leave the hobby. I know I have tons of stuff I was really excited to get back then, but bores me now. I don't want to unload it, though, because I'd most likely not get back what I paid for them (compared to $0 sitting in my closet) and they are part of my collection.

The problem with 2010 UD Exquisites is that the base set caused MLB to sue them out of existence and basically they stopped distributing, it seems. Between a few collectors like Heavy_hitter and myself, we can't even establish a full checklist (still don't know who #86 is, or a couple of the patch cards). It's possible that their pack-out got screwed up, as the patches weren't even supposed to be in UD Series 1, but in sets later in the year like SPx. But it seems like there are fewer than a dozen copies of each Exquisite base card around, and some more common than others, but that could be anecdotal.

I have a theory on SP'd cards, like #/100 or less, where you'll see between 10-20% of the print run in the first month or so after release, then a similar amount in the next 3 months, and then it's pretty random. This is just dealing with ebay, but I think it holds up around other sites and at shows and stuff, few though they are these days. I like collecting low-numbered sets and it's something I noticed that seems to hold up reasonably well when deciding what projects I'd like to dive into. There naturally is some variance depending on the player, as stars and rookies are more likely to be recognized as sale-worthy. Commons, often you have to snatch them up when you can, because you won't keep seeing them listed over and over. And the absolute top, Trout-level players you have to grab immediately also, as they will disappear forever. But the semi-star/all-star guys tend to be easier to wait on.
 

gracecollector

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
6,559
215
Lake in the Hills, IL
Thing is, #/100 cards were way harder to find for sale in the 90's because the odds for pulling them from a pack were much harder. The production runs for the base cards were much higher, so they were seeded far less often. You'd have to open 100 packs to find one instead of 10 packs today. Just because there are 100 copies of a card doesn't mean they are all equally easy to find. When you have odd ways of distributing (1996 Leaf Silver Press Proofs only in hanging jumbo "magazine" packs and not in normal packs) or huge print run product, it makes those issues harder.
 
Aug 7, 2008
821
6
Tampa, FL
4. 2006 Upper Deck Special FX Red/50 and Purple/150. I have not seen these show up either. This one is particularly bothersome since Alomar has so few cards with the Dodgers and these both picture him with LA.

I can't speak to Alomar, but I am thankful I picked up my copies of Lance Niekro when they first came out back then. That being said, I still have never seen the 2006 Upper Deck F/X Blue, a supposed base non-numbered card Beckett only values at a $1. This stuff just dries up over time, especially with lesser names.

Thanks,
Jeff
 

mouschi

Featured Contributor, Bridging the Gap, Senior Mem
May 18, 2012
3,105
170
Thing is, #/100 cards were way harder to find for sale in the 90's because the odds for pulling them from a pack were much harder. The production runs for the base cards were much higher, so they were seeded far less often. You'd have to open 100 packs to find one instead of 10 packs today. Just because there are 100 copies of a card doesn't mean they are all equally easy to find. When you have odd ways of distributing (1996 Leaf Silver Press Proofs only in hanging jumbo "magazine" packs and not in normal packs) or huge print run product, it makes those issues harder.

That is a very good point that I had been thinking about as well. Do you (or anyone here) know if there is a list of distribution methods for various types of cards anywhere? I find the story on the studio silver and fan club cards downright fascinating.
 

weight333

New member
May 28, 2013
581
0
Milwaukee, WI
A Bonds 96 Silver Press Proof was listed last year at BIN $25 and I couldn't click the button fast enough! Glad to have it and I can't recall seeing another listing any time in the past few years. Another toughie I picked up last year was the 98 UD Retro Quantum Leap /50. I paid $120 and it is worth every penny to me!
 

goobmcnasty

Active member
Apr 4, 2014
1,583
13
The 1996 Leaf Studio Silver Press Proof/100 could never figure out why the silver was/100 and the gold was /500. was a tough one to find.

What makes this one worse, is the fact that the Silvers look waaaay too close to the base card. There are probably thousands sitting in stacks of 96 Studio commons.
 

goobmcnasty

Active member
Apr 4, 2014
1,583
13
You also have to take into consideration that "lesser" player's rare/tough cards are never listed, because sellers feel it isn't worth their time. Griffey/Ripken/Jeter pop up a lot more often than Belle/Grace/Juan Gonzalez
 

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