- Thread starter
- #1
hive17
Active member
- Aug 7, 2008
- 21,426
- 24
If anyone wants to give me a specific list of players they want comments for, post them up. They are 3 paragraph write-ups, so doing it all in one shot is gonna be ROUGH.
I'll do the first 25 and then edit this post for whatever else you're interested in.
1 CF Mike Trout L.A. Angels 6-1 217 20
Of the top three prospects on this year's list -- all viable candidates for the top spot -- Trout rose to the top because, in a sense, he's the perfect prospect. He is a position player who affects the game on offense, on defense and via baserunning, and has shown incredible maturity in his approach despite the fact that he entered pro ball at age 17 and still can't legally buy a drink (unless the Angels are visiting the Blue Jays). The next two guys on this list are pretty special in their own right, but Trout remains the top dog -- er, fish -- for 2012.
All Trout did last year was rank in the top 10 in the Texas League in on-base percentage (fifth, .414) and slugging (eighth, .544) despite being the youngest qualifying position player in the league. He's an 80 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) who flies out of the box; he tied for the league lead in triples and finished fifth in stolen bases even though a call up to the big leagues -- before his 20th birthday -- limited him to just 91 games at Double-A. And that early call-up is, in and of itself, a good sign: In the past 40 years, just 11 other players have had 100 plate appearances in a year in which their seasonal ages were 19 or younger, a list that includes Hall of Famer Robin Yount; potential Hall of Famers Ken Griffey, Alex Rodriguez and Pudge Rodriguez; and non-slouches Adrian Beltre, Justin Upton and Andruw Jones.
Trout is atop the list because the scouting report lines up with the production he has showed in the minors over the past three years. In addition to that explosive speed, he has great hand-eye coordination; a short, direct path to the ball; and a very advanced approach that combines pitch recognition with good ball-strike recognition. (That approach did fall apart a little in the big leagues, in part as he tried to be more aggressive to keep himself in the lineup, but also as he struggled to adjust to pitchers with better breaking balls changing eye levels on him -- fastballs up, curveballs down, in either order.) He has the hip rotation and leverage to hit for above-average power down the road to go with high batting averages and OBP, and should provide plus defense in any of the three outfield spots. A player such as Trout, who can add so much value to his team in so many ways, belongs on the top of the rankings.
2 RF Bryce Harper Washington 6-2 245 19
Harper's calling card remains his 80 power to go with an 80 arm from right field, but he's a better overall athlete than he's given credit for. He showed over the course of a year when he was challenged twice by the Nationals with promotions that he can and will make adjustments to pitchers who attack his weaknesses.
His light-tower power produces incredible BP sessions and mammoth in-game shots; he has as much leverage from his lower half as a human can achieve without dislocating his spine midswing. He couples that with both quick wrists and strong hand-eye coordination for higher contact rates than this kind of power hitter typically sees. He's a plus runner who has improved substantially in right field since moving there after signing in 2010.
Harper still struggles with breaking stuff from lefties and continues to adjust to right-handers pitching him soft away, but showed improvement in at-bats against both groups of pitchers in the Arizona Fall League. He should return to Double-A to start the season and spend some time in Triple-A when ready, but a September call-up would be a reasonable timetable, with 30-homer seasons in his very near future.
3 LHP Matt Moore Tampa Bay 6-2 205 22
Moore throws in the upper 90s about as easily as any left-hander I can remember seeing, sitting 93 to 98 mph like he's playing catch. He complements the heater with a plus slider in the low 80s and an even better changeup that helped him demolish right-handed batters in 2011 -- he struck out just less than 40 percent of right-handers he faced in the minors last year. The changeup is hard, 83-87 mph, and cuts more than fades, so Moore just buries it at the knees to keep hitters who've picked it up from elevating it. The slider is bigger than a typical slider, with tilt but a hint of a curveball's break that can carry it out of the zone, although if that's your third-best pitch, you're going pretty good.
His control took a big step forward this year, and his command of the fastball and changeup is already above average. Moore is only 22 with the frame to get stronger and an easy delivery that should, in theory, keep him on the mound longer. If I had a crystal ball that could promise me Moore would stay healthy for the next decade, he'd be even higher on this list. Instead, he'll have to settle for third place and predictions of Cy Young contention by his third or fourth year in the majors.
4 SS Manny Machado Baltimore 6-3 185 19
Machado showed he was much more advanced at the plate than even his biggest fans (myself included) thought, jumping to a full-season club and showing strong plate discipline in his first year in pro ball.
At the plate, Machado has strong, quick wrists and has mostly eliminated the slight bat wrap he had in high school, although he's started to drift a little early, which might cut off a little of his power. He has great hip rotation and really extends his arm well through his finish, so if he keeps his weight back a little better, he'll have above-average to plus power when he matures physically.
The biggest risk for Machado will be that he outgrows shortstop as his body fills out, but that likely would come with a major increase in power that could carry his bat at third base. He has the arm, the hands and the athleticism to handle short, and the faster pro game didn't faze him on defense or offense. At third, he'd still be an All-Star, but as a shortstop, when he reaches his mid-20s, he could be among the best players in the game.
5 RHP Shelby Miller St. Louis 6-3 195 21
Miller is the top right-handed pitching prospect in the minors, with the best combination of stuff, size, delivery and results of any pitcher in the minors not named Matt Moore.
He will sit in the low- to mid-90s and touch 97 mph as a starter with a sharp breaking ball in the upper-70s/low-80s with good depth that misses right-handed hitters' bats. He continued to make progress this year with his changeup, a pitch he rarely needed or used as an amateur, and the pitch has good tailing action that has helped him gets some swinging strikes against lefties. He is very receptive to coaches' suggestions and has proved a quick study so far.
He often lands on the third-base side of the rubber and comes slightly across his body, creating deception but also potentially putting stress on his shoulder. If the Cardinals can keep him more on line, and he sees more improvement in the changeup and command of the fastball, he's a potential No. 1 starter for the Cardinals in two or three years.
6 C Travis d'Arnaud Toronto 6-2 195 22
D'Arnaud might turn out to be the real impact player acquired by Toronto in the Roy Halladay trade -- although I think Kyle Drabek is far too young and talented to assume his story is written -- as a plus defensive catcher who produces across the board on offense.
The two big keys for d'Arnaud in 2011 were staying healthy -- which he did until he tore a thumb ligament while playing for Team USA in October's World Cup -- and starting to grow into his power, which projects as plus, 25-30 homers in a full season of catching down the road.
His defense, always solid, improved this year with help from his manager in New Hampshire, Sal Fasano, who worked with d'Arnaud on game-calling and footwork. There's still more growth in d'Arnaud's bat, and he has the arm strength and release to improve his modest caught-stealing rates when he reaches the majors. He is expected to be healthy for spring training and will start the year in Triple-A, but since Las Vegas is such a hitters' park to begin with, he might knock the walls down before Toronto calls him up later in the year.
7 SS Jurickson Profar Texas 5-11 165 18
The Sally League's youngest regular was one of its most impressive prospects of any age; Profar showed the selectivity of a player six or seven years his senior, outstanding instincts in the field and more power than anticipated in his full-season debut.
Profar is a plus-makeup, plus-feel, plus-instincts guy who breaks the mold of that type of player by also having tremendous tools. Born in Curacao, he was scouted more as a pitcher that a position player before he signed. His defense projects as plus, if it isn't there already, with good hands, great reactions off the bat and of course a plus arm. At the plate, his approach is very advanced, and he's stronger than I realized, showing the ability to drive the ball the other way. He needs to keep his stride shorter -- I've seen him overstride to the point where his back side collapses -- and might have more pull power if he does so. He is only an average runner down the line but gets more out of his speed through his feel for baserunning.
Profar is also a player to root for, because of the energy he brings to the game and what a potential superstar like him could do for the sport on the global stage.
8 C Devin Mesoraco Cincinnati 6-1 220 23
Mesoraco followed up his breakout 2010 season -- after doing nothing in his first two years in pro ball -- with an impressive year in Triple-A in which he showed patience, some power and enough defensive ability to profile as an All-Star backstop in the big leagues.
At the plate, Mesoraco is strong and balanced, rotating his hips very well (despite a very faint hip drift) for future plus power that would produce 15-20 bombs right now in the big leagues. His approach is sound, surprisingly so for a player who faced a low level of competition in high school in Punxsutawney, Pa. Behind the plate, he receives fine and has improved his game-calling; his arm strength is above-average but it's mitigated by a slow release, one factor behind a drop in his caught stealing percentage from 2009-10 to 2011.
He is a rookie of the year contender in 2011 if he gets the playing time and should produce 25-homer seasons down the road at a position where any kind of offense is welcome.
9 DH/C Jesus Montero Seattle 6-3 235 22
Montero, who was traded to Seattle in a January deal that sent Michael Pineda to the Yankees, is a monster bat with a chance to produce MVP-caliber offensive lines from the DH slot, as soon as the Mariners accept that's where he needs to be.
He's exceedingly strong with plus bat speed and great hand-eye coordination, so even though he hits off his front foot, he can drive the ball out to all fields. Early in 2011, he lost his patience at the plate, apparently due to some frustration at returning to Triple-A, but worked it out and showed his previous approach and results during the second half and in a brief but impressive call-up to the Bronx in September.
As a catcher, Montero is not a catcher. He's slow behind the dish, poor at receiving and throwing -- despite some arm strength, he takes a year and a half to get rid of the ball, so the arm doesn't play. The bat is too special to put at risk of injury at the catcher's spot or to omit from the lineup 25 times a year because of routine rest days. Let Jesus hit.
10 RHP Gerrit Cole Pittsburgh 6-4 220 21
Cole was the first overall pick in the 2011 Rule 4 draft and the top prospect in the draft class, on the basis of his long-term projection rather than his performance, which, it should be noted, wasn't the best on his own college team. (He was outpitched by UCLA teammate Trevor Bauer, who is No. 22 on this list.)
He has an 80 fastball, hitting 100-101 mph as a starter and pitching comfortably at 95-98, although the four-seamer doesn't have much life and he needs to learn to locate it better within the strike zone. His changeup is plus, 84-88 mph with good arm speed and hard fade, although his feel for how to use the pitch isn't as advanced as it should be because he threw it less often than his above-average 86-89 mph slider.
Cole can cut himself off a bit, especially when rushing his delivery. When he's right, he uses his lower half to generate arm speed and gets out over his front side after a strong stride toward the plate. He needs to work on his feel for pitching, since his coach always called his games at UCLA, and on command of his fastball; using his two-seamer more might also help him minimize mistakes up with the four-seamer. But the projection here is that of a No. 1 starter who can miss bats with as many as four different pitches, and who has the size and delivery to handle an ace's workload.
11 RHP Dylan Bundy Baltimore 6-1 200 19
How advanced is Bundy, a high school pitcher from Oklahoma taken fourth overall in the 2011 Rule 4 draft? One very senior front-office executive who saw him suggested the only reason Bundy wouldn't make Baltimore's opening day roster this year was his height. Aside from being "just" 6 feet tall, Bundy is about as perfect a high school right-hander as you'll find, boasting plus velocity, plus off-speed stuff, outstanding feel for pitching and a great delivery boosted by a legendary conditioning regimen.
He will sit 93-96 mph and touched 98-99 last spring, with a big, sharp upper-70s curveball and a vicious out-pitch cutter at 86-88 that he uses in lieu of his changeup to left-handed batters. The negatives are few; even his lack of height isn't a major concern, since he gets on top of the ball well and works down in the zone. He was worked extremely hard in high school, including a 180-pitch outing his junior year that earned some criticism on the national level, and no matter how well your arm works, an outing of that length includes some pitching while fatigued, especially for an 18-year-old. I'd like to see Baltimore handle Bundy aggressively, getting him to at least Double-A this year if his performance in the low minors follows our expectations.
12 SS Hak-Ju Lee Tampa Bay 6-2 170 21
Lee's breakout year in 2011 carried him to Double-A at age 20 and established him as one of the best true shortstop prospects in the game. He's a four-tool player whose only weakness is power, but because he's a lock to stay at the position, his bat will still make him a potential All-Star. A product of the Cubs' longtime investment in Korea, Lee was traded to Tampa in the Matt Garza deal in January 2011, and I'm guessing the Cubs' new brass would like to have him back.
He is a 70 runner with a plus arm, quick feet and solid instincts at short, along with excellent bat speed and an advanced approach that led him to the 12th-best on-base percentage in the Florida State League despite his being one of its 10 youngest regulars. His swing is slappy, so he's not going to hit for much if any power, but with high batting averages and OBPs and added value on defense, he'll be an All-Star candidate a few years after reaching the majors sometime in 2013.
13 OF Wil Myers Kansas City 6-3 205 21
Myers' season got off to a rough start when he suffered a knee injury that ended up infected, costing him about six weeks of playing time and leaving his lower half a little stiff for much of the summer. But after resting it in September, he showed up in the Arizona Fall League looking like his old self.
He is a strong, patient hitter who's going to grow into a physical beast who hits 30-plus homers a year while providing at least average defense in right. Myers' swing is very natural and simple but doesn't produce a ton of power yet because he's young and because his stride is unusually short. His approach is excellent, and even as he struggled during the regular season, he continued to work the count and draw walks. He has an above-average arm in right and is athletic enough to stay there even if he ends up with a body similar to Scott Rolen. Don't be fooled by the off year -- he's still going to mash.
14 RHP Arodys Vizcaino Atlanta 6-0 190 21
Vizcaino, who was acquired from the Yankees in the Javier Vazquez trade, appeared briefly down the stretch for Atlanta as a fastball-curveball reliever with two plus offerings and erratic command, but long term, he's a three-pitch starter who has a history of plus control, and just needs time and health to become a No. 1 or No. 2 starter.
He will pitch at 92-96 mph as a starter and touched 98 in relief for the big club, with some late life up in the zone. His main secondary pitch is a very hard curveball, breaking down hard at slider velocity with two-plane action and depth. He has good arm speed on his changeup and was much more effective against left-handed pitchers in the minors last year, even though he comes from just under three-quarters and gives those batters a longer look at the ball. He accelerates his arm very quickly and gets on top of the ball well but doesn't get great extension out front.
The righty missed part of 2010 with a partial ligament tear, and the move to the bullpen late in 2011 was to protect his arm as much as to give the major league club another relief option. If he stays healthy, which he did for all of last year, he's got the weapons and the easy velocity to pitch at the top of a rotation, with impact reliever potential if he can't handle the workload.
15 OF Bubba Starling Kansas City 6-4 180 19
The best athlete in the 2011 draft -- and one of the best I've ever seen pick up a bat -- Starling spurned a scholarship to play quarterback at Nebraska to sign with the hometown Royals and become their long-term answer in center field.
He is a true five-tool player who hit 92 mph off the mound, was consistently the fastest runner at baseball showcases in high school and has above-average present power that will become plus as he fills out. He has some drift at the plate that holds back his power, but he has the hand strength and hip rotation to drive the ball to all fields. He hasn't faced a ton of advanced pitching in his life, and adjusting to pro pitchers who can spin a good breaking ball will be the ultimate test of how mature Starling's approach at the plate is. For now, it's all beautiful upside, a supreme athlete who one day will hit third or fourth in a lineup with above-average defense in center while contending for MVP awards.
16 RHP Jameson Taillon Pittsburgh 6-6 225 20
Taillon still has top-of-the-rotation ceiling, but he has pitched so little in pro ball that he hasn't developed as quickly as the typical top-end teenage pitcher would.
At 6-foot-6, 225 pounds, he looks like a workhorse starter, and has the plus fastball and future-plus slider to complete the story, sitting in the mid-90s (rarely throwing a fastball slower than 93 mph) with the ability to go back and get 98 when he needs it. He's so big at such a young age that his body control is lagging, and he'll need to continue to focus on pacing his delivery and keeping himself on line to the plate.
The Pirates' handling of Taillon's workloads has raised eyebrows across the game. He's been on such tight pitch counts that he faced more than 20 batters in a start just three times all year, never recording more than 15 outs. Despite that, he performed worse as the season went on, with reductions in his command and control. I still see Taillon as a future ace, but at some point, the Pirates will have to take the reins off.
17 3B Anthony Rendon Washington 6-0 190 21
Rendon was the top player in the 2011 draft class going into the spring but played with a nagging shoulder injury all season and fell to the Nationals with the sixth pick. When healthy, the Rice University product is an impressive, advanced hitter who should get on base, hit for at least average power and provide plus defense at third.
He has one of the quickest bats in the minors, coupled with major league-caliber plate discipline, particularly in recognizing pitches on the border of the strike zone. Before the shoulder limited his throwing, he had a plus arm, and his first step at third base is quick and accurate. He does have a lot of excess movement before he gets his swing started, leading to some timing issues, and he's now had three serious injuries in the past three years. There have been questions about Washington potentially moving him to second base because of the presence of Ryan Zimmerman, but the Nats currently have no plans to do so, nor should they -- second base is the wrong position for a player who's already had two traumatic ankle injuries. He could end up on top of this list with a healthy 2012, if he shows the defense, bat and patience to again project as an All-Star at third.
18 RHP Julio Teheran Atlanta 6-2 175 21
The Colombian-born Teheran still has one of the best pure arms of any starting pitching prospect in the minors, with a theoretical ceiling as a top-of-the-rotation starter, but the lesson of his 2011 season was that he's farther away than he appeared to be a year ago.
He'll pitch comfortably at 91-96 mph as a starter with very little effort, although he tries to throw his heater up in the zone and doesn't have a matching weapon to change hitters' eye levels. His best secondary pitch is a changeup that grades out as plus, with good fading action, although he showed a moderate platoon split in the minors and was spanked by left-handed hitters in five big league appearances (.968 OPS against).
Teheran's biggest shortcoming is the lack of an above-average breaking ball, although his mid-70s curveball was shorter and harder this year than it was in the past. He also opens up his front side very early, making the ball much easier for hitters to track, especially from the left side. Most importantly, he is still just 21 and is at least ready to pitch in a big league bullpen, with the kind of loose arm and easy velocity you can't teach.
19 RHP Archie Bradley Arizona 6-4 225 19
Bradley and Dylan Bundy were inevitably paired up all spring, compared to each other primarily because of geography (they played for rival high schools in Oklahoma) rather than the way they pitch. On the mound, the two 2011 first-round picks are quite different.
Where Bundy brings polish and probability, Bradley brings size and ceiling. Bradley, a star quarterback who turned down a scholarship to Oklahoma, is 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, with a fastball at 92-97 mph and one of the best curveballs in last year's draft, an absolute hammer at 80-84 that had older players laughing at how sharp it was in last year's instructional league.
His delivery is pretty simple for a guy his size; he keeps his hands away from his body and pronates his elbow nice and early, but doesn't generate much torque through hip rotation. His feel for pitching isn't as advanced as Bundy's -- yes, now I'm comparing them -- and he'll need to develop his changeup in pro ball, but he has the size and two weapons to project as an ace three or four years down the line.
20 LHP Martin Perez Texas 6-0 180 20
Perez has been on the prospect radar so long that it's easy to forget he has yet to turn 21. His performances haven't matched his stuff -- or the hype -- just yet, but he reached Triple-A at an unusually young age and performed well given that added variable.
He will sit 92-95 mph on good days, working effectively to both sides of the plate, with a plus changeup at 83-85 that has both good arm speed and hard fading action. His curveball is more solid-average, mid-70s with inconsistent shape. Perez's command and control are still works in progress. He can take an inning or more to find his rhythm, and he has a tendency to overthrow when in trouble. He's improved his conditioning over the past two years, losing baby fat and building up muscle for durability. He could still end up at the top of a rotation but is more likely a solid No. 2 behind, say, someone such as Yu Darvish.
21 RHP Trevor Bauer Arizona 6-1 175 21
Bauer, the 2011 Golden Spikes Award winner, was like a machine all spring for UCLA, striking out nearly 40 percent of the batters he faced. He carried much of that dominance into pro ball, helping an absurdly talented Mobile club win the Southern League championship.
He works with up to six pitches, including a plus fastball at 92-95 mph, an above-average changeup and multiple curveballs; both varieties of curve get swings and misses but tend to finish below the zone, something Bauer will have to address to miss pro bats. He's patterned his delivery after Tim Lincecum's, getting leverage early, but without "The Freak's" flexibility or ability to get over his front side.
The righty also handled an obscene workload last spring, topping 120 pitches at least six times for the Bruins, not counting the 50-plus full-effort pitches he'll throw before the game and between innings, adding to concerns about his long-term durability. But he also is nearly ready for the majors, and could post big strikeout totals right out of the chute because of the quality of his stuff and the fact that he's a quick study on the mound.
22 RHP Carlos Martinez St. Louis 6-0 165 20
Martinez -- formerly known as Matias -- was originally signed as a shortstop by the Red Sox in 2009, had the deal voided due to an identity question, but started throwing hard enough to earn a seven-figure bonus from the Cardinals a few months later. He now hits 100 mph as a starter and pitches in the mid-90s, with a hard curveball that has sharp two-plane break and tilt that puts it somewhere between a curve and a slider. As good as the curveball is, however, it's so far below the fastball's velocity -- 16-18 mph -- that he's sometimes actually helping the hitter by throwing it. He'll flash a plus changeup that he turns over very well, but when he moved up to high Class A, his lack of deception caught up to him, especially against left-handed hitters.
The Cardinals already have made some adjustments with him so the ball isn't so visible all the way through his delivery, and he needs to avoid trying to be too fine with his pitches when he gets into trouble. He's not a very physical guy -- his best comparable in build might be Pedro Martinez -- but he has the three weapons to remain a starter if he can make it harder for hitters to pick up the ball so early. It's top-of-the-rotation stuff in a pitcher who would be a college junior this year if he'd been born in the U.S.
23 LHP Manny Banuelos N.Y. Yankees 5-11 155 20
Banuelos' season started out on the wrong foot, as he had to go home to Mexico for a personal matter in April, missing some ramp-up time that set him back in his routine and his pitch counts. He pitched into the seventh inning only twice all year, so he needs to build up more stamina in 2012.
When he's right, he'll show an above-average fastball at 90-94 mph (but was a tick below that in 2011), an above-average to plus changeup and a solid-average curveball with good two-plane break. His command and control were off all year, especially to right-handed hitters, and no matter how good your changeup is, you're not getting opposite-side hitters out if you can't locate your fastball first.
Everything still points to Banuelos commanding the ball in the long term as he did before 2011, and much of the disappointment in his season is a function of our high expectations for him. He still projects as a solid No. 2, assuming his previous level of command returns.
24 RHP Taijuan Walker Seattle 6-4 195 19
If we held a 2010 draft do-over right now, Walker would be a top-10 pick, but the industry let him fall to the sandwich round because a rough spring masked his absurd upside. A two-sport athlete who excelled in basketball in high school, Walker sits in the mid-90s, touching 98 mph, with plus-plus command of his fastball already. He just needs to work on his secondary stuff to reach his potential as a No. 1 starter.
The curveball will flash plus already, while the changeup, which has nice deception, has made solid strides for a pitch he's been throwing for only a little more than a year. Walker has a high leg kick and good stride to the plate, with just a little more effort from the arm than you'd like to see. He is skinny now (6-foot-4, 195 pounds) and is going to fill out substantially, so he needs to work to maintain his agility going forward, as well as on refining the two off-speed pitches. The upside is real, and his emergence this season made the trade of Michael Pineda possible.
25 LHP Tyler Skaggs Arizona 6-4 195 20
Skaggs continues to improve by leaps and bounds, to the point where he'd be in line for a big league call-up for a club that didn't also have Trevor Bauer standing in line.
He will sit in the low 90s, averaging around 91 mph, but hitters don't pick up the ball, allowing it to play as if he's throwing 96. He always has had a plus curveball -- he threw two in high school but junked the slower one at the urging of the Angels' staff, before he was traded to Arizona -- but his changeup has been the revelation, from a nonfactor in high school to above-average now. He shows almost no platoon split and struck out just less than a third of the right-handed batters he faced in 2011.
The southpaw has put on weight since high school, but his 6-foot-4 frame probably could handle another 20 pounds, so give him another two or three years, and he'll have the body, delivery, weapons and control to pitch near the top of a rotation.
26 3B Nolan Arenado Colorado 6-1 205 20
27 RHP Zack Wheeler N.Y. Mets 6-4 185 21
28 3B Miguel Sano Minnesota 6-3 195 18
29 RHP Jacob Turner Detroit 6-5 210 20
30 LHP Danny Hultzen Seattle 6-3 200 22
31 RHP Jarrod Parker Oakland 6-1 195 23
32 RHP Casey Kelly San Diego 6-3 195 22
33 RHP A.J. Cole Oakland 6-4 180 20
34 OF Mason Williams N.Y. Yankees 6-0 150 20
35 SS Francisco Lindor Cleveland 5-11 175 18
36 1B Anthony Rizzo Chicago Cubs 6-3 220 22
37 3B Nick Castellanos Detroit 6-4 195 19
38 RHP Matt Harvey N.Y. Mets 6-4 210 22
39 RHP Wily Peralta Milwaukee 6-4 240 22
40 OF Rymer Liriano San Diego 6-0 211 20
41 RHP Zach Lee L.A. Dodgers 6-4 190 20
42 RHP Drew Hutchison Toronto 6-2 165 21
43 3B Cheslor Cuthbert Kansas City 6-1 190 19
44 SS Jean Segura L.A. Angels 5-11 160 21
45 LHP Drew Pomeranz Colorado 6-5 230 23
46 1B/LF Jonathan Singleton Houston 6-2 215 20
47 OF Jake Marisnick Toronto 6-4 200 20
48 OF Christian Yelich Miami 6-4 189 20
49 RHP Joe Ross San Diego 6-3 185 18
50 OF Eddie Rosario Minnesota 6-0 170 20
51 LHP James Paxton Seattle 6-4 220 23
52 LHP Mike Montgomery Kansas City 6-4 185 22
53 OF Oscar Taveras St. Louis 6-2 180 19
54 RHP Daniel Corcino Cincinnati 5-11 165 21
55 C Gary Sanchez N.Y. Yankees 6-2 220 19
56 3B Jonathan Schoop Baltimore 6-1 187 20
57 SS Nick Franklin Seattle 6-1 175 20
58 RHP Taylor Jungmann Milwaukee 6-6 220 22
59 OF Anthony Gose Toronto 6-1 190 21
60 OF George Springer Houston 6-3 205 22
61 RHP Allen Webster L.A. Dodgers 6-3 185 22
62 SS Xander Bogaerts Boston 6-3 185 19
63 RHP Chris Archer Tampa Bay 6-3 185 23
64 SS Billy Hamilton Cincinnati 6-1 160 21
65 C Yasmani Grandal San Diego 6-2 205 23
66 3B Zack Cox St. Louis 6-0 215 22
67 OF Josh Bell Pittsburgh 6-4 195 19
68 CF Gary Brown San Francisco 6-1 190 23
69 1B Yonder Alonso San Diego 6-2 240 24
70 RHP Garrett Richards L.A. Angels 6-3 215 23
71 RHP Jake Odorizzi Kansas City 6-2 175 21
72 OF Starling Marte Pittsburgh 6-1 170 23
73 RHP Sonny Gray Oakland 5-11 200 22
74 RHP Tyrell Jenkins St. Louis 6-4 180 19
75 3B Mike Olt Texas 6-2 210 23
76 RHP Trevor May Philadelphia 6-5 215 22
77 OF Michael Choice Oakland 6-0 215 22
78 RHP Jarred Cosart Houston 6-3 180 21
79 RHP Nate Eovaldi L.A. Dodgers 6-3 195 21
80 OF Aaron Hicks Minnesota 6-2 185 22
81 RHP John Hellweg L.A. Angels 6-9 210 23
82 3B Matt Davidson Arizona 6-3 225 20
83 RHP Dellin Betances N.Y. Yankees 6-8 260 23
84 LHP Enny Romero Tampa Bay 6-3 165 21
85 OF Oswaldo Arcia Minnesota 6-0 210 20
86 OF Robbie Grossman Pittsburgh 6-1 190 22
87 OF Mikie Mahtook Tampa Bay 6-1 200 22
88 RHP Taylor Guerrieri Tampa Bay 6-3 195 19
89 CF Brett Jackson Chicago Cubs 6-2 210 23
90 3B Jedd Gyorko San Diego 5-10 195 23
91 RHP Chad Bettis Colorado 6-1 195 22
92 RHP Jordan Swagerty St. Louis 6-2 175 22
93 C Derek Norris Oakland 6-0 210 22
94 C Christian Bethancourt Atlanta 6-2 190 20
95 SS Javier Baez Chicago Cubs 6-0 180 19
96 RHP Aaron Sanchez Toronto 6-4 190 19
97 RHP Addison Reed Chicago White Sox 6-4 215 23
98 RHP Randall Delgado Atlanta 6-3 200 22
99 RHP Neil Ramirez Texas 6-3 185 22
100 C Blake Swihart Boston 6-1 175 19
I'll do the first 25 and then edit this post for whatever else you're interested in.
1 CF Mike Trout L.A. Angels 6-1 217 20
Of the top three prospects on this year's list -- all viable candidates for the top spot -- Trout rose to the top because, in a sense, he's the perfect prospect. He is a position player who affects the game on offense, on defense and via baserunning, and has shown incredible maturity in his approach despite the fact that he entered pro ball at age 17 and still can't legally buy a drink (unless the Angels are visiting the Blue Jays). The next two guys on this list are pretty special in their own right, but Trout remains the top dog -- er, fish -- for 2012.
All Trout did last year was rank in the top 10 in the Texas League in on-base percentage (fifth, .414) and slugging (eighth, .544) despite being the youngest qualifying position player in the league. He's an 80 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) who flies out of the box; he tied for the league lead in triples and finished fifth in stolen bases even though a call up to the big leagues -- before his 20th birthday -- limited him to just 91 games at Double-A. And that early call-up is, in and of itself, a good sign: In the past 40 years, just 11 other players have had 100 plate appearances in a year in which their seasonal ages were 19 or younger, a list that includes Hall of Famer Robin Yount; potential Hall of Famers Ken Griffey, Alex Rodriguez and Pudge Rodriguez; and non-slouches Adrian Beltre, Justin Upton and Andruw Jones.
Trout is atop the list because the scouting report lines up with the production he has showed in the minors over the past three years. In addition to that explosive speed, he has great hand-eye coordination; a short, direct path to the ball; and a very advanced approach that combines pitch recognition with good ball-strike recognition. (That approach did fall apart a little in the big leagues, in part as he tried to be more aggressive to keep himself in the lineup, but also as he struggled to adjust to pitchers with better breaking balls changing eye levels on him -- fastballs up, curveballs down, in either order.) He has the hip rotation and leverage to hit for above-average power down the road to go with high batting averages and OBP, and should provide plus defense in any of the three outfield spots. A player such as Trout, who can add so much value to his team in so many ways, belongs on the top of the rankings.
2 RF Bryce Harper Washington 6-2 245 19
Harper's calling card remains his 80 power to go with an 80 arm from right field, but he's a better overall athlete than he's given credit for. He showed over the course of a year when he was challenged twice by the Nationals with promotions that he can and will make adjustments to pitchers who attack his weaknesses.
His light-tower power produces incredible BP sessions and mammoth in-game shots; he has as much leverage from his lower half as a human can achieve without dislocating his spine midswing. He couples that with both quick wrists and strong hand-eye coordination for higher contact rates than this kind of power hitter typically sees. He's a plus runner who has improved substantially in right field since moving there after signing in 2010.
Harper still struggles with breaking stuff from lefties and continues to adjust to right-handers pitching him soft away, but showed improvement in at-bats against both groups of pitchers in the Arizona Fall League. He should return to Double-A to start the season and spend some time in Triple-A when ready, but a September call-up would be a reasonable timetable, with 30-homer seasons in his very near future.
3 LHP Matt Moore Tampa Bay 6-2 205 22
Moore throws in the upper 90s about as easily as any left-hander I can remember seeing, sitting 93 to 98 mph like he's playing catch. He complements the heater with a plus slider in the low 80s and an even better changeup that helped him demolish right-handed batters in 2011 -- he struck out just less than 40 percent of right-handers he faced in the minors last year. The changeup is hard, 83-87 mph, and cuts more than fades, so Moore just buries it at the knees to keep hitters who've picked it up from elevating it. The slider is bigger than a typical slider, with tilt but a hint of a curveball's break that can carry it out of the zone, although if that's your third-best pitch, you're going pretty good.
His control took a big step forward this year, and his command of the fastball and changeup is already above average. Moore is only 22 with the frame to get stronger and an easy delivery that should, in theory, keep him on the mound longer. If I had a crystal ball that could promise me Moore would stay healthy for the next decade, he'd be even higher on this list. Instead, he'll have to settle for third place and predictions of Cy Young contention by his third or fourth year in the majors.
4 SS Manny Machado Baltimore 6-3 185 19
Machado showed he was much more advanced at the plate than even his biggest fans (myself included) thought, jumping to a full-season club and showing strong plate discipline in his first year in pro ball.
At the plate, Machado has strong, quick wrists and has mostly eliminated the slight bat wrap he had in high school, although he's started to drift a little early, which might cut off a little of his power. He has great hip rotation and really extends his arm well through his finish, so if he keeps his weight back a little better, he'll have above-average to plus power when he matures physically.
The biggest risk for Machado will be that he outgrows shortstop as his body fills out, but that likely would come with a major increase in power that could carry his bat at third base. He has the arm, the hands and the athleticism to handle short, and the faster pro game didn't faze him on defense or offense. At third, he'd still be an All-Star, but as a shortstop, when he reaches his mid-20s, he could be among the best players in the game.
5 RHP Shelby Miller St. Louis 6-3 195 21
Miller is the top right-handed pitching prospect in the minors, with the best combination of stuff, size, delivery and results of any pitcher in the minors not named Matt Moore.
He will sit in the low- to mid-90s and touch 97 mph as a starter with a sharp breaking ball in the upper-70s/low-80s with good depth that misses right-handed hitters' bats. He continued to make progress this year with his changeup, a pitch he rarely needed or used as an amateur, and the pitch has good tailing action that has helped him gets some swinging strikes against lefties. He is very receptive to coaches' suggestions and has proved a quick study so far.
He often lands on the third-base side of the rubber and comes slightly across his body, creating deception but also potentially putting stress on his shoulder. If the Cardinals can keep him more on line, and he sees more improvement in the changeup and command of the fastball, he's a potential No. 1 starter for the Cardinals in two or three years.
6 C Travis d'Arnaud Toronto 6-2 195 22
D'Arnaud might turn out to be the real impact player acquired by Toronto in the Roy Halladay trade -- although I think Kyle Drabek is far too young and talented to assume his story is written -- as a plus defensive catcher who produces across the board on offense.
The two big keys for d'Arnaud in 2011 were staying healthy -- which he did until he tore a thumb ligament while playing for Team USA in October's World Cup -- and starting to grow into his power, which projects as plus, 25-30 homers in a full season of catching down the road.
His defense, always solid, improved this year with help from his manager in New Hampshire, Sal Fasano, who worked with d'Arnaud on game-calling and footwork. There's still more growth in d'Arnaud's bat, and he has the arm strength and release to improve his modest caught-stealing rates when he reaches the majors. He is expected to be healthy for spring training and will start the year in Triple-A, but since Las Vegas is such a hitters' park to begin with, he might knock the walls down before Toronto calls him up later in the year.
7 SS Jurickson Profar Texas 5-11 165 18
The Sally League's youngest regular was one of its most impressive prospects of any age; Profar showed the selectivity of a player six or seven years his senior, outstanding instincts in the field and more power than anticipated in his full-season debut.
Profar is a plus-makeup, plus-feel, plus-instincts guy who breaks the mold of that type of player by also having tremendous tools. Born in Curacao, he was scouted more as a pitcher that a position player before he signed. His defense projects as plus, if it isn't there already, with good hands, great reactions off the bat and of course a plus arm. At the plate, his approach is very advanced, and he's stronger than I realized, showing the ability to drive the ball the other way. He needs to keep his stride shorter -- I've seen him overstride to the point where his back side collapses -- and might have more pull power if he does so. He is only an average runner down the line but gets more out of his speed through his feel for baserunning.
Profar is also a player to root for, because of the energy he brings to the game and what a potential superstar like him could do for the sport on the global stage.
8 C Devin Mesoraco Cincinnati 6-1 220 23
Mesoraco followed up his breakout 2010 season -- after doing nothing in his first two years in pro ball -- with an impressive year in Triple-A in which he showed patience, some power and enough defensive ability to profile as an All-Star backstop in the big leagues.
At the plate, Mesoraco is strong and balanced, rotating his hips very well (despite a very faint hip drift) for future plus power that would produce 15-20 bombs right now in the big leagues. His approach is sound, surprisingly so for a player who faced a low level of competition in high school in Punxsutawney, Pa. Behind the plate, he receives fine and has improved his game-calling; his arm strength is above-average but it's mitigated by a slow release, one factor behind a drop in his caught stealing percentage from 2009-10 to 2011.
He is a rookie of the year contender in 2011 if he gets the playing time and should produce 25-homer seasons down the road at a position where any kind of offense is welcome.
9 DH/C Jesus Montero Seattle 6-3 235 22
Montero, who was traded to Seattle in a January deal that sent Michael Pineda to the Yankees, is a monster bat with a chance to produce MVP-caliber offensive lines from the DH slot, as soon as the Mariners accept that's where he needs to be.
He's exceedingly strong with plus bat speed and great hand-eye coordination, so even though he hits off his front foot, he can drive the ball out to all fields. Early in 2011, he lost his patience at the plate, apparently due to some frustration at returning to Triple-A, but worked it out and showed his previous approach and results during the second half and in a brief but impressive call-up to the Bronx in September.
As a catcher, Montero is not a catcher. He's slow behind the dish, poor at receiving and throwing -- despite some arm strength, he takes a year and a half to get rid of the ball, so the arm doesn't play. The bat is too special to put at risk of injury at the catcher's spot or to omit from the lineup 25 times a year because of routine rest days. Let Jesus hit.
10 RHP Gerrit Cole Pittsburgh 6-4 220 21
Cole was the first overall pick in the 2011 Rule 4 draft and the top prospect in the draft class, on the basis of his long-term projection rather than his performance, which, it should be noted, wasn't the best on his own college team. (He was outpitched by UCLA teammate Trevor Bauer, who is No. 22 on this list.)
He has an 80 fastball, hitting 100-101 mph as a starter and pitching comfortably at 95-98, although the four-seamer doesn't have much life and he needs to learn to locate it better within the strike zone. His changeup is plus, 84-88 mph with good arm speed and hard fade, although his feel for how to use the pitch isn't as advanced as it should be because he threw it less often than his above-average 86-89 mph slider.
Cole can cut himself off a bit, especially when rushing his delivery. When he's right, he uses his lower half to generate arm speed and gets out over his front side after a strong stride toward the plate. He needs to work on his feel for pitching, since his coach always called his games at UCLA, and on command of his fastball; using his two-seamer more might also help him minimize mistakes up with the four-seamer. But the projection here is that of a No. 1 starter who can miss bats with as many as four different pitches, and who has the size and delivery to handle an ace's workload.
11 RHP Dylan Bundy Baltimore 6-1 200 19
How advanced is Bundy, a high school pitcher from Oklahoma taken fourth overall in the 2011 Rule 4 draft? One very senior front-office executive who saw him suggested the only reason Bundy wouldn't make Baltimore's opening day roster this year was his height. Aside from being "just" 6 feet tall, Bundy is about as perfect a high school right-hander as you'll find, boasting plus velocity, plus off-speed stuff, outstanding feel for pitching and a great delivery boosted by a legendary conditioning regimen.
He will sit 93-96 mph and touched 98-99 last spring, with a big, sharp upper-70s curveball and a vicious out-pitch cutter at 86-88 that he uses in lieu of his changeup to left-handed batters. The negatives are few; even his lack of height isn't a major concern, since he gets on top of the ball well and works down in the zone. He was worked extremely hard in high school, including a 180-pitch outing his junior year that earned some criticism on the national level, and no matter how well your arm works, an outing of that length includes some pitching while fatigued, especially for an 18-year-old. I'd like to see Baltimore handle Bundy aggressively, getting him to at least Double-A this year if his performance in the low minors follows our expectations.
12 SS Hak-Ju Lee Tampa Bay 6-2 170 21
Lee's breakout year in 2011 carried him to Double-A at age 20 and established him as one of the best true shortstop prospects in the game. He's a four-tool player whose only weakness is power, but because he's a lock to stay at the position, his bat will still make him a potential All-Star. A product of the Cubs' longtime investment in Korea, Lee was traded to Tampa in the Matt Garza deal in January 2011, and I'm guessing the Cubs' new brass would like to have him back.
He is a 70 runner with a plus arm, quick feet and solid instincts at short, along with excellent bat speed and an advanced approach that led him to the 12th-best on-base percentage in the Florida State League despite his being one of its 10 youngest regulars. His swing is slappy, so he's not going to hit for much if any power, but with high batting averages and OBPs and added value on defense, he'll be an All-Star candidate a few years after reaching the majors sometime in 2013.
13 OF Wil Myers Kansas City 6-3 205 21
Myers' season got off to a rough start when he suffered a knee injury that ended up infected, costing him about six weeks of playing time and leaving his lower half a little stiff for much of the summer. But after resting it in September, he showed up in the Arizona Fall League looking like his old self.
He is a strong, patient hitter who's going to grow into a physical beast who hits 30-plus homers a year while providing at least average defense in right. Myers' swing is very natural and simple but doesn't produce a ton of power yet because he's young and because his stride is unusually short. His approach is excellent, and even as he struggled during the regular season, he continued to work the count and draw walks. He has an above-average arm in right and is athletic enough to stay there even if he ends up with a body similar to Scott Rolen. Don't be fooled by the off year -- he's still going to mash.
14 RHP Arodys Vizcaino Atlanta 6-0 190 21
Vizcaino, who was acquired from the Yankees in the Javier Vazquez trade, appeared briefly down the stretch for Atlanta as a fastball-curveball reliever with two plus offerings and erratic command, but long term, he's a three-pitch starter who has a history of plus control, and just needs time and health to become a No. 1 or No. 2 starter.
He will pitch at 92-96 mph as a starter and touched 98 in relief for the big club, with some late life up in the zone. His main secondary pitch is a very hard curveball, breaking down hard at slider velocity with two-plane action and depth. He has good arm speed on his changeup and was much more effective against left-handed pitchers in the minors last year, even though he comes from just under three-quarters and gives those batters a longer look at the ball. He accelerates his arm very quickly and gets on top of the ball well but doesn't get great extension out front.
The righty missed part of 2010 with a partial ligament tear, and the move to the bullpen late in 2011 was to protect his arm as much as to give the major league club another relief option. If he stays healthy, which he did for all of last year, he's got the weapons and the easy velocity to pitch at the top of a rotation, with impact reliever potential if he can't handle the workload.
15 OF Bubba Starling Kansas City 6-4 180 19
The best athlete in the 2011 draft -- and one of the best I've ever seen pick up a bat -- Starling spurned a scholarship to play quarterback at Nebraska to sign with the hometown Royals and become their long-term answer in center field.
He is a true five-tool player who hit 92 mph off the mound, was consistently the fastest runner at baseball showcases in high school and has above-average present power that will become plus as he fills out. He has some drift at the plate that holds back his power, but he has the hand strength and hip rotation to drive the ball to all fields. He hasn't faced a ton of advanced pitching in his life, and adjusting to pro pitchers who can spin a good breaking ball will be the ultimate test of how mature Starling's approach at the plate is. For now, it's all beautiful upside, a supreme athlete who one day will hit third or fourth in a lineup with above-average defense in center while contending for MVP awards.
16 RHP Jameson Taillon Pittsburgh 6-6 225 20
Taillon still has top-of-the-rotation ceiling, but he has pitched so little in pro ball that he hasn't developed as quickly as the typical top-end teenage pitcher would.
At 6-foot-6, 225 pounds, he looks like a workhorse starter, and has the plus fastball and future-plus slider to complete the story, sitting in the mid-90s (rarely throwing a fastball slower than 93 mph) with the ability to go back and get 98 when he needs it. He's so big at such a young age that his body control is lagging, and he'll need to continue to focus on pacing his delivery and keeping himself on line to the plate.
The Pirates' handling of Taillon's workloads has raised eyebrows across the game. He's been on such tight pitch counts that he faced more than 20 batters in a start just three times all year, never recording more than 15 outs. Despite that, he performed worse as the season went on, with reductions in his command and control. I still see Taillon as a future ace, but at some point, the Pirates will have to take the reins off.
17 3B Anthony Rendon Washington 6-0 190 21
Rendon was the top player in the 2011 draft class going into the spring but played with a nagging shoulder injury all season and fell to the Nationals with the sixth pick. When healthy, the Rice University product is an impressive, advanced hitter who should get on base, hit for at least average power and provide plus defense at third.
He has one of the quickest bats in the minors, coupled with major league-caliber plate discipline, particularly in recognizing pitches on the border of the strike zone. Before the shoulder limited his throwing, he had a plus arm, and his first step at third base is quick and accurate. He does have a lot of excess movement before he gets his swing started, leading to some timing issues, and he's now had three serious injuries in the past three years. There have been questions about Washington potentially moving him to second base because of the presence of Ryan Zimmerman, but the Nats currently have no plans to do so, nor should they -- second base is the wrong position for a player who's already had two traumatic ankle injuries. He could end up on top of this list with a healthy 2012, if he shows the defense, bat and patience to again project as an All-Star at third.
18 RHP Julio Teheran Atlanta 6-2 175 21
The Colombian-born Teheran still has one of the best pure arms of any starting pitching prospect in the minors, with a theoretical ceiling as a top-of-the-rotation starter, but the lesson of his 2011 season was that he's farther away than he appeared to be a year ago.
He'll pitch comfortably at 91-96 mph as a starter with very little effort, although he tries to throw his heater up in the zone and doesn't have a matching weapon to change hitters' eye levels. His best secondary pitch is a changeup that grades out as plus, with good fading action, although he showed a moderate platoon split in the minors and was spanked by left-handed hitters in five big league appearances (.968 OPS against).
Teheran's biggest shortcoming is the lack of an above-average breaking ball, although his mid-70s curveball was shorter and harder this year than it was in the past. He also opens up his front side very early, making the ball much easier for hitters to track, especially from the left side. Most importantly, he is still just 21 and is at least ready to pitch in a big league bullpen, with the kind of loose arm and easy velocity you can't teach.
19 RHP Archie Bradley Arizona 6-4 225 19
Bradley and Dylan Bundy were inevitably paired up all spring, compared to each other primarily because of geography (they played for rival high schools in Oklahoma) rather than the way they pitch. On the mound, the two 2011 first-round picks are quite different.
Where Bundy brings polish and probability, Bradley brings size and ceiling. Bradley, a star quarterback who turned down a scholarship to Oklahoma, is 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, with a fastball at 92-97 mph and one of the best curveballs in last year's draft, an absolute hammer at 80-84 that had older players laughing at how sharp it was in last year's instructional league.
His delivery is pretty simple for a guy his size; he keeps his hands away from his body and pronates his elbow nice and early, but doesn't generate much torque through hip rotation. His feel for pitching isn't as advanced as Bundy's -- yes, now I'm comparing them -- and he'll need to develop his changeup in pro ball, but he has the size and two weapons to project as an ace three or four years down the line.
20 LHP Martin Perez Texas 6-0 180 20
Perez has been on the prospect radar so long that it's easy to forget he has yet to turn 21. His performances haven't matched his stuff -- or the hype -- just yet, but he reached Triple-A at an unusually young age and performed well given that added variable.
He will sit 92-95 mph on good days, working effectively to both sides of the plate, with a plus changeup at 83-85 that has both good arm speed and hard fading action. His curveball is more solid-average, mid-70s with inconsistent shape. Perez's command and control are still works in progress. He can take an inning or more to find his rhythm, and he has a tendency to overthrow when in trouble. He's improved his conditioning over the past two years, losing baby fat and building up muscle for durability. He could still end up at the top of a rotation but is more likely a solid No. 2 behind, say, someone such as Yu Darvish.
21 RHP Trevor Bauer Arizona 6-1 175 21
Bauer, the 2011 Golden Spikes Award winner, was like a machine all spring for UCLA, striking out nearly 40 percent of the batters he faced. He carried much of that dominance into pro ball, helping an absurdly talented Mobile club win the Southern League championship.
He works with up to six pitches, including a plus fastball at 92-95 mph, an above-average changeup and multiple curveballs; both varieties of curve get swings and misses but tend to finish below the zone, something Bauer will have to address to miss pro bats. He's patterned his delivery after Tim Lincecum's, getting leverage early, but without "The Freak's" flexibility or ability to get over his front side.
The righty also handled an obscene workload last spring, topping 120 pitches at least six times for the Bruins, not counting the 50-plus full-effort pitches he'll throw before the game and between innings, adding to concerns about his long-term durability. But he also is nearly ready for the majors, and could post big strikeout totals right out of the chute because of the quality of his stuff and the fact that he's a quick study on the mound.
22 RHP Carlos Martinez St. Louis 6-0 165 20
Martinez -- formerly known as Matias -- was originally signed as a shortstop by the Red Sox in 2009, had the deal voided due to an identity question, but started throwing hard enough to earn a seven-figure bonus from the Cardinals a few months later. He now hits 100 mph as a starter and pitches in the mid-90s, with a hard curveball that has sharp two-plane break and tilt that puts it somewhere between a curve and a slider. As good as the curveball is, however, it's so far below the fastball's velocity -- 16-18 mph -- that he's sometimes actually helping the hitter by throwing it. He'll flash a plus changeup that he turns over very well, but when he moved up to high Class A, his lack of deception caught up to him, especially against left-handed hitters.
The Cardinals already have made some adjustments with him so the ball isn't so visible all the way through his delivery, and he needs to avoid trying to be too fine with his pitches when he gets into trouble. He's not a very physical guy -- his best comparable in build might be Pedro Martinez -- but he has the three weapons to remain a starter if he can make it harder for hitters to pick up the ball so early. It's top-of-the-rotation stuff in a pitcher who would be a college junior this year if he'd been born in the U.S.
23 LHP Manny Banuelos N.Y. Yankees 5-11 155 20
Banuelos' season started out on the wrong foot, as he had to go home to Mexico for a personal matter in April, missing some ramp-up time that set him back in his routine and his pitch counts. He pitched into the seventh inning only twice all year, so he needs to build up more stamina in 2012.
When he's right, he'll show an above-average fastball at 90-94 mph (but was a tick below that in 2011), an above-average to plus changeup and a solid-average curveball with good two-plane break. His command and control were off all year, especially to right-handed hitters, and no matter how good your changeup is, you're not getting opposite-side hitters out if you can't locate your fastball first.
Everything still points to Banuelos commanding the ball in the long term as he did before 2011, and much of the disappointment in his season is a function of our high expectations for him. He still projects as a solid No. 2, assuming his previous level of command returns.
24 RHP Taijuan Walker Seattle 6-4 195 19
If we held a 2010 draft do-over right now, Walker would be a top-10 pick, but the industry let him fall to the sandwich round because a rough spring masked his absurd upside. A two-sport athlete who excelled in basketball in high school, Walker sits in the mid-90s, touching 98 mph, with plus-plus command of his fastball already. He just needs to work on his secondary stuff to reach his potential as a No. 1 starter.
The curveball will flash plus already, while the changeup, which has nice deception, has made solid strides for a pitch he's been throwing for only a little more than a year. Walker has a high leg kick and good stride to the plate, with just a little more effort from the arm than you'd like to see. He is skinny now (6-foot-4, 195 pounds) and is going to fill out substantially, so he needs to work to maintain his agility going forward, as well as on refining the two off-speed pitches. The upside is real, and his emergence this season made the trade of Michael Pineda possible.
25 LHP Tyler Skaggs Arizona 6-4 195 20
Skaggs continues to improve by leaps and bounds, to the point where he'd be in line for a big league call-up for a club that didn't also have Trevor Bauer standing in line.
He will sit in the low 90s, averaging around 91 mph, but hitters don't pick up the ball, allowing it to play as if he's throwing 96. He always has had a plus curveball -- he threw two in high school but junked the slower one at the urging of the Angels' staff, before he was traded to Arizona -- but his changeup has been the revelation, from a nonfactor in high school to above-average now. He shows almost no platoon split and struck out just less than a third of the right-handed batters he faced in 2011.
The southpaw has put on weight since high school, but his 6-foot-4 frame probably could handle another 20 pounds, so give him another two or three years, and he'll have the body, delivery, weapons and control to pitch near the top of a rotation.
26 3B Nolan Arenado Colorado 6-1 205 20
27 RHP Zack Wheeler N.Y. Mets 6-4 185 21
28 3B Miguel Sano Minnesota 6-3 195 18
29 RHP Jacob Turner Detroit 6-5 210 20
30 LHP Danny Hultzen Seattle 6-3 200 22
31 RHP Jarrod Parker Oakland 6-1 195 23
32 RHP Casey Kelly San Diego 6-3 195 22
33 RHP A.J. Cole Oakland 6-4 180 20
34 OF Mason Williams N.Y. Yankees 6-0 150 20
35 SS Francisco Lindor Cleveland 5-11 175 18
36 1B Anthony Rizzo Chicago Cubs 6-3 220 22
37 3B Nick Castellanos Detroit 6-4 195 19
38 RHP Matt Harvey N.Y. Mets 6-4 210 22
39 RHP Wily Peralta Milwaukee 6-4 240 22
40 OF Rymer Liriano San Diego 6-0 211 20
41 RHP Zach Lee L.A. Dodgers 6-4 190 20
42 RHP Drew Hutchison Toronto 6-2 165 21
43 3B Cheslor Cuthbert Kansas City 6-1 190 19
44 SS Jean Segura L.A. Angels 5-11 160 21
45 LHP Drew Pomeranz Colorado 6-5 230 23
46 1B/LF Jonathan Singleton Houston 6-2 215 20
47 OF Jake Marisnick Toronto 6-4 200 20
48 OF Christian Yelich Miami 6-4 189 20
49 RHP Joe Ross San Diego 6-3 185 18
50 OF Eddie Rosario Minnesota 6-0 170 20
51 LHP James Paxton Seattle 6-4 220 23
52 LHP Mike Montgomery Kansas City 6-4 185 22
53 OF Oscar Taveras St. Louis 6-2 180 19
54 RHP Daniel Corcino Cincinnati 5-11 165 21
55 C Gary Sanchez N.Y. Yankees 6-2 220 19
56 3B Jonathan Schoop Baltimore 6-1 187 20
57 SS Nick Franklin Seattle 6-1 175 20
58 RHP Taylor Jungmann Milwaukee 6-6 220 22
59 OF Anthony Gose Toronto 6-1 190 21
60 OF George Springer Houston 6-3 205 22
61 RHP Allen Webster L.A. Dodgers 6-3 185 22
62 SS Xander Bogaerts Boston 6-3 185 19
63 RHP Chris Archer Tampa Bay 6-3 185 23
64 SS Billy Hamilton Cincinnati 6-1 160 21
65 C Yasmani Grandal San Diego 6-2 205 23
66 3B Zack Cox St. Louis 6-0 215 22
67 OF Josh Bell Pittsburgh 6-4 195 19
68 CF Gary Brown San Francisco 6-1 190 23
69 1B Yonder Alonso San Diego 6-2 240 24
70 RHP Garrett Richards L.A. Angels 6-3 215 23
71 RHP Jake Odorizzi Kansas City 6-2 175 21
72 OF Starling Marte Pittsburgh 6-1 170 23
73 RHP Sonny Gray Oakland 5-11 200 22
74 RHP Tyrell Jenkins St. Louis 6-4 180 19
75 3B Mike Olt Texas 6-2 210 23
76 RHP Trevor May Philadelphia 6-5 215 22
77 OF Michael Choice Oakland 6-0 215 22
78 RHP Jarred Cosart Houston 6-3 180 21
79 RHP Nate Eovaldi L.A. Dodgers 6-3 195 21
80 OF Aaron Hicks Minnesota 6-2 185 22
81 RHP John Hellweg L.A. Angels 6-9 210 23
82 3B Matt Davidson Arizona 6-3 225 20
83 RHP Dellin Betances N.Y. Yankees 6-8 260 23
84 LHP Enny Romero Tampa Bay 6-3 165 21
85 OF Oswaldo Arcia Minnesota 6-0 210 20
86 OF Robbie Grossman Pittsburgh 6-1 190 22
87 OF Mikie Mahtook Tampa Bay 6-1 200 22
88 RHP Taylor Guerrieri Tampa Bay 6-3 195 19
89 CF Brett Jackson Chicago Cubs 6-2 210 23
90 3B Jedd Gyorko San Diego 5-10 195 23
91 RHP Chad Bettis Colorado 6-1 195 22
92 RHP Jordan Swagerty St. Louis 6-2 175 22
93 C Derek Norris Oakland 6-0 210 22
94 C Christian Bethancourt Atlanta 6-2 190 20
95 SS Javier Baez Chicago Cubs 6-0 180 19
96 RHP Aaron Sanchez Toronto 6-4 190 19
97 RHP Addison Reed Chicago White Sox 6-4 215 23
98 RHP Randall Delgado Atlanta 6-3 200 22
99 RHP Neil Ramirez Texas 6-3 185 22
100 C Blake Swihart Boston 6-1 175 19
