Bryce Harper may be the first $100 auto card in a long time

Topnotchsy · Feb 26, 2012

It's an interesting hobby we have in that one's entrance into the Majors creates a sort of price "caste system" where no matter how good a player is, his regular autographs rarely change prices all that much after the beginning of their career. Looking at the pricing on autographs of some of the biggest stars in baseball, you can get a Troy Tulowitzki autograph for $10, Miguel Cabera autograph for $15 and Robinson Cano for $20, despite them being some of the absolute best players in baseball. Even when Hanley Ramirez was vying with Albert Pujols for the #1 spot in fantasy baseball drafts, his autographs could be had for $10 or less. Simply put, if a player has many autographs on the market that go for $10 or so early in their career, it is unlikely that they will ever sell for much more than that, regardless of how good a player they are.

Occasionally though, a player begins his career on such a high level, that his rookie autograph cards are in the stratosphere, and when this happens his regular autograph cards are released at a much higher price point. This happened with Pujols and Ichiro back in 2001, and to Wright and Longoria (on a much lesser level, but their autographs were $50 or so before they each hit some speed bumps in their career.)

Harper is the first player in quite some time who could fit this mold, and if he can live up to the hype, may be the first player in a really long time to command $100 or close to it for a regular pack pulled autograph.

G $MONEY$ · Feb 26, 2012

Im sure supply and demand will have a lot to do with it as well. The demand for Harper is so high right now and he doesn't have that many autos on the market so far. Give him a couple years of signing in every set and time for collectors to get an auto of him and his autos will be $20 as well.

exigussrex · Feb 26, 2012

Part of me hopes that Harper's ego gets in the way of having a successful career. Maybe that's because I can't afford his stuff...

Anyways, the OP brings up a good point. "hype" plays a lot into the value of rookies. it's extremely interesting to me.

mwashuc06 · Feb 26, 2012

exigussrex said:
Part of me hopes that Harper's ego gets in the way of having a successful career. Maybe that's because I can't afford his stuff...

Anyways, the OP brings up a good point. "hype" plays a lot into the value of rookies. it's extremely interesting to me.

I always have the feeling the Nats management is going to ruin this kid if they put the world on his shoulders too soon. It's almost like the Eric Lindros hype from the 90's, he was suppose to be the next Gretzky.

ajbraves25 · Feb 26, 2012

Another player that came to mind is Jeter. No matter if it's here, Ebay or at shows, he commands atleast $100 for pack pulled autos. Atleast for me anyway. I can't seem to get one any cheaper.

All The Hype · Feb 26, 2012

Great post, very interesting topic.

I think your point that card prices rarely fluctuate much beyond the player's rookie season is very accurate, but one thing I think is worth noting is that a team change can have a big influence. Miguel Cabrera autos can be had for $10-$15 for the majority of his releases, but when he got traded to the Tigers, a whole different type of buyer came into the market: the Tiger fan who wants a Cabrera auto in a Tiger uniform. And now his Tiger autos regularly sell for two or three times more than his Marlins autos go for.

danimal · Feb 26, 2012

The only other 4 current players I can think of who's current autos demand $100+ are Jeter, Pujols, Ichiro and Strasburg. It is a very small club.

ChasHawk · Feb 26, 2012

danimal said:
The only other 4 current players I can think of who's current autos demand $100+ are Jeter, Pujols, Ichiro and Strasburg. It is a very small club.

Ripken and Ryan are close, especially for on-card autos. Some into the multiple-hundreds.

danimal · Feb 26, 2012

ChasHawk said:
danimal said:

The only other 4 current players I can think of who's current autos demand $100+ are Jeter, Pujols, Ichiro and Strasburg. It is a very small club.

Click to expand...

Ripken and Ryan are close, especially for on-card autos. Some into the multiple-hundreds.

I can find Ripken autos all day for $45-$70, and neither of those are current players. I think the OP is talking about current guys playing in MLB games.

ChasHawk · Feb 26, 2012

danimal said:
ChasHawk said:

danimal said:

The only other 4 current players I can think of who's current autos demand $100+ are Jeter, Pujols, Ichiro and Strasburg. It is a very small club.

Click to expand...

Ripken and Ryan are close, especially for on-card autos. Some into the multiple-hundreds.

Click to expand...

I can find Ripken autos all day for $45-$70, and neither of those are current players. I think the OP is talking about current guys playing in MLB games.

There are some cheaper Ripkens, yes. Not nice on-card sets though.

Didn't realize he was talking current only.

Russ S. · Feb 26, 2012

danimal said:
ChasHawk said:

danimal said:

The only other 4 current players I can think of who's current autos demand $100+ are Jeter, Pujols, Ichiro and Strasburg. It is a very small club.

Click to expand...

Ripken and Ryan are close, especially for on-card autos. Some into the multiple-hundreds.

Click to expand...

I can find Ripken autos all day for $45-$70, and neither of those are current players. I think the OP is talking about current guys playing in MLB games.

I think you missed his MAJOR point.

danimal · Feb 26, 2012

Russ S. said:
danimal said:

ChasHawk said:

danimal said:

The only other 4 current players I can think of who's current autos demand $100+ are Jeter, Pujols, Ichiro and Strasburg. It is a very small club.

Click to expand...

Ripken and Ryan are close, especially for on-card autos. Some into the multiple-hundreds.

Click to expand...

I can find Ripken autos all day for $45-$70, and neither of those are current players. I think the OP is talking about current guys playing in MLB games.

Click to expand...

I think you missed his MAJOR point.

How so?

http://www.ebay.com/itm/CAL-RIPKEN-JR-2 ... _499wt_951

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2005-UD-BASEBAL ... 499wt_1183

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2000-Upper-Deck ... _499wt_951

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 499wt_1416

ChasHawk · Feb 26, 2012

Happy?

uniquebaseballcards · Feb 26, 2012

G $MONEY$ said:
Im sure supply and demand will have a lot to do with it as well. The demand for Harper is so high right now and he doesn't have that many autos on the market so far. Give him a couple years of signing in every set and time for collectors to get an auto of him and his autos will be $20 as well.

^^^ this. The auto component contributes most to an auto'd card's value by far, certainly not the set its from because people generally want the auto and not really the card. I'd agree it makes sense that the overall demand for a particular player's auto will decrease as more and more of his autos are available.

The dynamics for non-auto'd cards are different, although mostly similar, probably because more people collect non-auto'd cards than collect autos... but the more cards released the less demand they'll be for any particular card.

Russ S. · Feb 26, 2012

I don't see any of his stuff going back down ANY time soon.
As much love as he's getting on the DC radio, his prices are going to continue to go up and up.
If he shows out at ST Camp, WATCH OUT!

brouthercard · Feb 26, 2012

His autographed cards will be $100+ for probably two more years because it will be the fourth and fifth years of his ROOKIE CARD, cause Topps will say it's his rookie card, even though he will have had a full three years of rookie cards prior to that.

I think his sixth (second) year cards and on will be a lot cheaper.

nosterbor · Feb 26, 2012

ChasHawk said:
Happy?

rico08 · Feb 26, 2012

This thread is pending Bryce Harper producing meaningful statistics. If he's Matt LaPorta no one will care to spend $100 on his autograph.

Topnotchsy · Feb 26, 2012

All The Hype said:
Great post, very interesting topic.

I think your point that card prices rarely fluctuate much beyond the player's rookie season is very accurate, but one thing I think is worth noting is that a team change can have a big influence. Miguel Cabrera autos can be had for $10-$15 for the majority of his releases, but when he got traded to the Tigers, a whole different type of buyer came into the market: the Tiger fan who wants a Cabrera auto in a Tiger uniform. And now his Tiger autos regularly sell for two or three times more than his Marlins autos go for.

That's an insight I had not considered, but looking around definitely one worth noting. Thanks!

ChasHawk said:
danimal said:

ChasHawk said:

danimal said:

The only other 4 current players I can think of who's current autos demand $100+ are Jeter, Pujols, Ichiro and Strasburg. It is a very small club.

Click to expand...

Ripken and Ryan are close, especially for on-card autos. Some into the multiple-hundreds.

Click to expand...

I can find Ripken autos all day for $45-$70, and neither of those are current players. I think the OP is talking about current guys playing in MLB games.

Click to expand...

There are some cheaper Ripkens, yes. Not nice on-card sets though.

Didn't realize he was talking current only.

I think Ripken fits the general criteria though he does illustrate that once a player retires the market dynamics may change a bit. He's popular enough to be put in sets every year, but it seems not quite popular enough for the market to absorb all those cards without some effect on prices, as they have dropped since he has retired. (All that said, Ripken is a guy who entered at a higher price point than most and while all would agree he is more popular than guys like Manny or Vlad, the difference in price for their autographs is not justified by performance or popularity IMO.)

uniquebaseballcards said:
G $MONEY$ said:

Im sure supply and demand will have a lot to do with it as well. The demand for Harper is so high right now and he doesn't have that many autos on the market so far. Give him a couple years of signing in every set and time for collectors to get an auto of him and his autos will be $20 as well.

Click to expand...

^^^ this. The auto component contributes most to an auto'd card's value by far, certainly not the set its from because people generally want the auto and not really the card. I'd agree it makes sense that the overall demand for a particular player's auto will decrease as more and more of his autos are available.

The dynamics for non-auto'd cards are different, although mostly similar, probably because more people collect non-auto'd cards than collect autos... but the more cards released the less demand they'll be for any particular card.

I'm going to disagree. We've seen players like Jeter and Pujols have autograph cards year after year and the price has not come down on them. Griffey's auto cards did not come down in price until his performance leveled off for years. I think the market is big enough to absorb the increase in supply if a player is performing at a reasonably high level. Right now Harper is hyped, but 95% of baseball fans do not know who he is. Obviously supply and demand is a basic market mechanism, but I don't think that time and new sets alone make price decreases inevitable. (Obviously prices will not be as high as they are on his rookie cards, but they can still maintain a very high price point IMO.)

rico08 said:
This thread is pending Bryce Harper producing meaningful statistics. If he's Matt LaPorta no one will care to spend $100 on his autograph.

100% true. The point was that Harper is entering the game at a price point that most players could not possibly reach regardless of performance.

Russ S. · Feb 26, 2012

In Ripkens case, it's now the over saturation of autos available.

The On Card High End Autos still sell for over a couple bills.
It's all about the quality.

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