Will Someone please tell me how to Prospect: READ

Hey guys, have a little rant today.

I do not consider myself a big prospector. I like to try to do it to just see if I can do it and turn a bit of a profit. I don't think I'm very good at it but rather like to experiment with it. I don't have a ton of money to invest so I just invest what I can.

There are 2 guys that started making an impact recently in the majors that I was invested in: Yasmani Grandal and Kirk Nieuwenhuis

Grandal: Guy had 2 HR's in his first game, has hit 2 more since then, is batting around .300 and is making an impact on his team. He is a switch hitting power hitting/average hitting catcher, a rarity in modern baseball i believe. I figured when this guy got the call and if he did well, his prices would increase. Well they havn't, or not much at least. They havn't sky rocketed or even increased by 20%.

Nieuwenhuis: He is a NY prospect so I figured he'd get more hype because he's playing in such a big market. I understand that he's not a power hitter so that could take away from his potential sale prices. When he first came up, he was smacking the ball. He batted over.300 for the majority of the first half of the year, and remains close to it now and also has 6 or 7 HR's, which for a Met player who wasn't on the opening day roster, is a solid amount. He has played great defense. Since then he has deteriorated but when he first got called up and was playing well, his prices rose a small amount, but hardly anything to write home about.

This is my rant, someone please tell me where I went wrong!

Avery

Grandals' problem is he plays in San Diego.

Nieuwenheis plays on a crappy mets team.

Those both affect sales

Prospecting =

1 part research
1 part luck
1 part patience

And sometimes, even then, it just does not come together.

I can't comment on Grandal, but I myself invested a decent amount in Nieuwenhuis and was surprised at how soft the prices were when he got hot. Granted he struggled at first, then was only hot for about a week or so before starting to struggle again (he is now 6 for his last 45 with only 1 HR and 23 strikeouts in that span). I think the fact that he wasn't a hyped prospect to begin with was the main reason there was only tepid interest in his cards even when he got hot. Aside from a handful of high BIN's that sold the day of his call-up, there didn't seem to be any sustained interest. I think for a guy who wasn't hyped at the outset to really shoot up in price, he needs a longer period of sustained success for people to notice, whereas with prospects who are hyped, they already have the attention of prospectors and therefore will get recognition for even just a few good games.

All depends on what you went after. I also had a small stash of each but I paid a few dollars an auto and got 15-20 for all the standard autos. I didn't have much for color so I don't know how they did but I did have a Kirk blue that I got for around 20 and sold for over 50. I will take doubling+ money all day any day

What he said. You might not get a ton of advice on here because alot of members don't want the added competition.

My advice pick a few players in bowman draft and stock up on a mix of base autos and refractors and cross your fingers. Pick players you like selling in the $15-$25 range as
they may have the best potential.

Players who are top 25 prospects are also a good start, and with no one really blocking them at the major league level.

Part of Kirk's problem is Terry Collins' lack of confidence in him. He continues to platoon with Torres in CF, which is going to hurt a prospect's development IMO. Kirk has his work to do and I hope he turns it around in the second-half. Also, I think a problem is that he's "old news", in the eyes of the media and Mets fan. We tend to get caught up in the moment and think of a player as a god-like player, but when they struggle, we want their heads on a stake.

Grandal has exploded price wise since his 2 HR game. I've sold stuff for 3x what I would have gotten a week before. That's not to say they are all higher than when his stuff first released, but that has to do with him being in SD. You could have bought for $1 2 weeks ago and sold for $4 last Wednesday/Thursday.

I've sold $1500+ worth of Grandal stuff that I bought into for around $800. The only stuff that hasn't seen much action has been his super high end stuff, of which I have two of his 3 biggest cards (sterling red auto, elite black auto). But I've moved 80% of my stuff at $300 or lower

This is the same mistake that everyone makes.

You want to make a good amount of money? Buy guys like Stanton, Strasburg, harper etc.

Guys who dont have any hype and are just solid players wont make you much money.

Prospecting is just about dead anyway.

Nick1190 said:

This is the same mistake that everyone makes.

You want to make a good amount of money? Buy guys like Stanton, Strasburg, harper etc.

Guys who dont have any hype and are just solid players wont make you much money.

Prospecting is just about dead anyway.

Click to expand...

Wow. Are you serious bro?

Not true its alive and well. I have done very well this year. There have been many guys I have made money on including both guys the poster mentioned. The windows of opportunity can be small and in prospecting greed can kill profits. As an earlier poster said the lower rated the prospect the better he needs to be at the major league level. This is the case with both of these guys. Although I recently just turned a nice profit with Chris Carter.

Nick1190 said:

This is the same mistake that everyone makes.

You want to make a good amount of money? Buy guys like Stanton, Strasburg, harper etc.

Guys who dont have any hype and are just solid players wont make you much money.

Prospecting is just about dead anyway.

Click to expand...

But you can't give up either. Think of all the guys who were probably saying the same thing about Chris Sale. He came up rather quick, made a little noise, but the market didn't really take off. But people made money. Now, almost 2 years later, after rumors of him being a reliever died away, there is BIG money to be made if you got into his chrome autos at <$10.

That's not a tip to simply hold out on guys. You're taking less risk by only investing in 2 guys. You really have no choice but to follow them and hope for the best. Look how long it took Trout, Rizzo and even Trumbo to get hot. Now, they are molten. If you had invested in only those 3 and hemmed and hawwed about selling last year, you might have been in a bad situation, or so you thought. To sum up: no one ever made money selling for less than they bought, so don't dispair.

Nick1190 said:

This is the same mistake that everyone makes.

You want to make a good amount of money? Buy guys like Stanton, Strasburg, harper etc.

Guys who dont have any hype and are just solid players wont make you much money.

Prospecting is just about dead anyway.

Click to expand...

I couldn't disagree more. I honestly think it's easier than it's ever been to make money prospecting.

There are so many people trying to prospect the next big thing that even the low end guys can see a price jump. And with the influx of new people attempting to prospect, there's always someone else buying so it's rare that you truly get stuck with a stash unless you wait it out until the bitter end, or just pick a completely terrible player that doesn't stand a chance.

For most legitimate prospects, I think the vast majority provide a profit window at some point during their careers, and for a lot of them, it's usually before the Majors.

HPC said:

Wow. Are you serious bro?

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Yeah bro!

By early, hype early, sell early.. Don't tell anyone your player and stay away from pitchers. Do what others say and retweet whatever the experts tweet. Don't think for yourself and remember 24 is too old to invest in.

HPC said:

Wow. Are you serious bro?

Click to expand...

That's a clown question, bro...

matfanofold said:

Prospecting =

1 part research
1 part luck
1 part patience

And sometimes, even then, it just does not come together.

Click to expand...

Have to agree with the luck part. One guy I bought back into this season wasn't a prospect but I threw about $360 into (3) Andrew McCutchen 05 Topps Chrome Black Refractor Autos /200. Somehow his refractor autos /500 from the same set have more than doubled but the last black prior to today only sold for $5 more than I paid preseason. The 001/200 ended tonight at $252 and it appears the flood gates may be opening! Hopefully I will get lucky...

Kirk is older then Justin Upton

Its all luck. In 2009 I broke it down to 3 guys, *******, Green and Trout. I rarely invest in high school kids, most of the time College kids are a safe bet. I went with ******* and Green over Trout. Even though I saw Trout play in the MWL and was incredibly impressed with him. I still think ******* and Green have great potential but both of them wont see they types of numbers Trout is getting right now.

Nick1190 said:

This is the same mistake that everyone makes.

You want to make a good amount of money? Buy guys like Stanton, Strasburg, harper etc.

Guys who dont have any hype and are just solid players wont make you much money.

Prospecting is just about dead anyway.

Click to expand...

This thread just became Hall of Shame material.