The future value of autographs...

Ok, so I was having this conversation with a friend a few days ago and we are kind of at a disagreement. My take is this: I collect autographs of baseball, basketball, and football players. On big name guys or favorite players, I would prefer to have an auto'd ball( sport specific of course) bat, picture, or some combo. There's some guys I've got on all those and more. But for everyone else, or even guys I either can't afford, or haven't had the chance to get( no public signings within close proximity or they may already be deceased) I will be more than happy with a certified auto out of a card issue.

My point, with all the signings that go on both free and paid, public or private, and all the cards and even memorabilia companies out there, does anyone else feel like the value will start to drop quite far for autos? There will always be demand for autos. But the supply seems to grow exponentially compared to the demand. I mean, yeah I collect and want autos and so do a lot of you. But the hobby of collecting autos can't possibly be growing as fast as they are being churned out. And the prices at some of the larger shows are crazy( which is actually what prompted this debate in the first place). I think eventually the price has to fall on these. I can't see it lasting. No I don't think autos will become worthless but I can't see having to pay the kind of money that is being paid now, in the future.

My friend on the other hand views auto'd mem. as a separate entity from cards and feels even as certified card autos increase in supply, there will still be decent demand for autos on items other than cards. In fact he, as well as another friend went as far as saying that they wouldn't consider an auto'd card as desirable or even a real auto. They know it is an auto but they just view it as junk.

Honestly, the already crazy prices, the influx of supply, and the fact that while the hobby does grow, it doesn't grow that fast makes me think he's wrong. I can totally see people going to different items for obtaining an auto based on price. Which leads me to believe people will be choosing certified card autos in some cases. Especially if the guy has passed on. It's a cheaper and a half way easier process to buy the card. Although I trust the card companies about as far as I can throw them, I do think it's a little easier to trust their process than some random guy selling me a ball he got psa/dna'd , although not by too much.


Thoughts?

My opinion is that a card should hold more value as each individual card only has an exact number of cards printed and signed.
They are cheaper and easier to store than most larger items such as jerseys, bats, etc. Which should allow for more people to collect them.
While I like both and collect all types of autographs baseball, gloves, bats, and balls I think there
is an infinite amount of these items and much harder to determine the supply versus a card that has a print run of 10 or 10,000.
Throw all that out the window for game used and signed items I would take a game used broken bat or jersey over any 1/1.

Good topic. I also don't think cards with autos on them will maintain value either as more and more autos of a general sort (on cards, memorabilia, etc) are released, its just supply and demand.

It seems the people who are interested in autos aren't always interested in cards and vice versa so that divides some of the interest - and value - in auto'd cards as more autos are available.

I'm also a person who greatly prefers full auto'd memorabilia over auto'd cards, although TTM and IP autos on cards are pretty cool even though they have less monetary value.

For me, I collect cards. I have no desire for an auto that is not issued in a pack. I think it just boils down to the individual preference. Some people will want autos on cards issued by companies, and other want In person autos. There will always be a demand for both. For players of previous generations, I don't see card autos really dropping in value. However, I do think when Topps puts out 800 different auto's cards of each new player in todays market, it has to start to effect the value somewhat. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper for example - no matter what they do, their auto'd cards had to come down from their peaks as Topps releases more and more autographed cards of them.

The auto is not indepedent of the card. For pack-pulled autos, the value is tied to the rarity of the card, the desirability of the set, the prolificness of the signer (not all athletes sign as much as others, and some players are not featured in auto sets often), the quality of the signature, other memorabilia on the card, on-card vs. sticker, multi-player signed vs. single player signed, etc. All these factors have to be considered in judging the long-term potential value of an autographed card. Then there are random factors too, like an athlete dying young, or switching teams hus having autos in a specific uniform rarer than in another uniform), and PED usage disclosure during or after playing days.

For IP signed cards, I do feel they generally increase value of base cards (except on high-end vintage) but decrease value of GU and limited print run cards. Their value usually lies in the personal experience of getting them signed. Since there are so many questions of authenticity on IP autos, they will always be viewed with skepticism.

Sure, as a blanket statement, the more autos available, the softer the prices. But for any individual card, many factors must be considered.

I think what you wrote here is a big part of the discussion as many people do see an auto as being independent of a card but many don't.

gracecollector said:

The auto is not indepedent of the card. For pack-pulled autos, the value is tied to the rarity of the card, the desirability of the set, the prolificness of the signer (not all athletes sign as much as others, and some players are not featured in auto sets often), the quality of the signature, other memorabilia on the card, on-card vs. sticker, multi-player signed vs. single player signed, etc. All these factors have to be considered in judging the long-term potential value of an autographed card. Then there are random factors too, like an athlete dying young, or switching teams hus having autos in a specific uniform rarer than in another uniform), and PED usage disclosure during or after playing days.

For IP signed cards, I do feel they generally increase value of base cards (except on high-end vintage) but decrease value of GU and limited print run cards. Their value usually lies in the personal experience of getting them signed. Since there are so many questions of authenticity on IP autos, they will always be viewed with skepticism.

Sure, as a blanket statement, the more autos available, the softer the prices. But for any individual card, many factors must be considered.

Click to expand...

For me, cards and mem. are different. There are so many factors that go into determining a cards value, whereas a signed bat is a signed bat. You pay for the player on the bat, not the little piece of cardboard he signed.

I personally collect IP and TTM autographs. I have two new projects I have started. One is getting Bowman Chrome Blue Refractor signed in person, and the next are unique jersey/"game used" pieces signed. Its for my private and personal collection. Do I really care about the value.. nope. If I did, I would have sold my Bryce Harper autographed ball back in 2009.
Does it affect the value of pack pulled cards? I doubt it seriously. Those are certified by a company

It's an interesting discussion. I view memorabilia and cards separately. I want/need both for my collection, but memorabilia always seems to cost more. Of some players, I can get pack certified autos for $10 or less. Certified autographed memorabilia goes for more. I think that will always be true, with few exceptions.

I personally prefer memorabilia to cards and I always try to get memorabilia signed instead of cards IP. As for value, I couldn't care less. I'm certainly not in this for the money.

Since the 1977 card show frenzy, I believe there are only four autographs that are hard to come by: Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale, Carl Yastrzemski, and Roger Maris. To get to rare you have to go into the Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ty Cobb era. Even in 1991, you had way to many Mantles, Dimaggio's, and Williams .

jbmm161 said:

My opinion is that a card should hold more value as each individual card only has an exact number of cards printed and signed.
They are cheaper and easier to store than most larger items such as jerseys, bats, etc. Which should allow for more people to collect them.
While I like both and collect all types of autographs baseball, gloves, bats, and balls I think there
is an infinite amount of these items and much harder to determine the supply versus a card that has a print run of 10 or 10,000.
Throw all that out the window for game used and signed items I would take a game used broken bat or jersey over any 1/1.

Click to expand...

You'd think cards would but my issue is the same with 1/1's and low numbered parallels. They've been overdone to the point where only certain issues are worth much. There are bagwells that have high print runs. I'm sure there are similar issues with other players and there are only going to be so many hardcore collectors who go after them. After that, they are somewhat waiting to be snagged by casual collectors.

19braves77 said:

Since the 1977 card show frenzy, I believe there are only four autographs that are hard to come by: Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale, Carl Yastrzemski, and Roger Maris. To get to rare you have to go into the Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ty Cobb era. Even in 1991, you had way to many Mantles, Dimaggio's, and Williams .

Click to expand...

None of those guys you mentioned are even close to tough.

Hope to come back with a longer response but for the moment will point out that the price people pay at shows has a lot to do with the experience of meeting the player and getting the item signed personally. Most people know you can get the item cheaper on eBay but the sentimental value and value of the experience is incomparable for many.

Casual sports fans / collectors probably want display pieces in their man caves and cards aren't going to fit the bill.

The people who value signed cards the most are primarily baseball / sports card collectors or simply hoarders.

gracecollector said:

The auto is not indepedent of the card. For pack-pulled autos, the value is tied to the rarity of the card, the desirability of the set, the prolificness of the signer (not all athletes sign as much as others, and some players are not featured in auto sets often), the quality of the signature, other memorabilia on the card, on-card vs. sticker, multi-player signed vs. single player signed, etc. All these factors have to be considered in judging the long-term potential value of an autographed card. Then there are random factors too, like an athlete dying young, or switching teams hus having autos in a specific uniform rarer than in another uniform), and PED usage disclosure during or after playing days.

For IP signed cards, I do feel they generally increase value of base cards (except on high-end vintage) but decrease value of GU and limited print run cards. Their value usually lies in the personal experience of getting them signed. Since there are so many questions of authenticity on IP autos, they will always be viewed with skepticism.

Sure, as a blanket statement, the more autos available, the softer the prices. But for any individual card, many factors must be considered.

Click to expand...

Ok I'm with you on the ip autos aspect. Especially when it comes down to getting something limited signed, I don't really like to normally.

But I have to disagree with the auto not being independent of the card. It most certainly is. Didn't used to be. But you can't reproduce the same concept a million times over and expect the value to stay like it was. To me, I view a sp'd auto like I do a sp'd card. When everything is low numbered and it's produced in a zillion different parallels, within the same set, and then rinse and repeat next year and next year and next year , as we have already seen with normal parallels, eventually it becomes just another card. That's how it is for me. Even 1/1's get old, especially with a ton of one player in one set(dk's and m&m).

I'm not saying its happened yet. I'm just assuming it will. And if low numbered parallels and gu are any indicator( despite the gu being suspect), I see it happening for autos too.

TBTwinsFan said:

For me, cards and mem. are different. There are so many factors that go into determining a cards value, whereas a signed bat is a signed bat. You pay for the player on the bat, not the little piece of cardboard he signed.

Click to expand...

Ok well even then, say I wanted a bagwell auto. Pretend I don't have a single bagwell auto and I am just a casual fan. I doubt I'm wanting to pay $125 or more( if gotten at a show) for a bat when I can go on eBay right now and get an autographed card( certified that is) for $30 or less.

Not to mention, for some of these guys who have a lot of auto'd stuff out there mem. wise, there has to be a dwindling number of people even willing to pay that kinda money for a bat or ball or whatever of bagwell.

brianga26 said:

I personally collect IP and TTM autographs. I have two new projects I have started. One is getting Bowman Chrome Blue Refractor signed in person, and the next are unique jersey/"game used" pieces signed. Its for my private and personal collection. Do I really care about the value.. nope. If I did, I would have sold my Bryce Harper autographed ball back in 2009.
Does it affect the value of pack pulled cards? I doubt it seriously. Those are certified by a company

Click to expand...

My point may have escaped you. I do ip stuff all the time. Which is why I am XXXXXy when it comes to having to pay money for an auto when I can get one for free on a more premium item. I consider balls and bats more premium than any card. Am I worried about true value? No, as I collect for fun. But it certainly affects what I'd pay.

muskiesfan said:

It's an interesting discussion. I view memorabilia and cards separately. I want/need both for my collection, but memorabilia always seems to cost more. Of some players, I can get pack certified autos for $10 or less. Certified autographed memorabilia goes for more. I think that will always be true, with few exceptions.

I personally prefer memorabilia to cards and I always try to get memorabilia signed instead of cards IP. As for value, I couldn't care less. I'm certainly not in this for the money.

Click to expand...

Steiner wanted $400 for a jeter ball a few years ago. I could have gotten a card out of a decent product for a quarter of that. I'm going with the card based on price alone. I want the mans auto. At that point I have to make a decision.

Topnotchsy said:

Hope to come back with a longer response but for the moment will point out that the price people pay at shows has a lot to do with the experience of meeting the player and getting the item signed personally. Most people know you can get the item cheaper on eBay but the sentimental value and value of the experience is incomparable for many.

Click to expand...

Cool. But doesn't that ever taper off? And if you do this long enough you realize real quick meeting them at a show is not cost effective enough to do consistently.

When I purchase aftermarket autos, I go for signatures period to the release of the card. I think signed rookies with rookie era signatures for players without certified rookie autos will maintain and grow in value.