HOF debate: Billy Wagner

markakis8 · Jan 10, 2013

He's eligible with Griffey for the first time in 2016. I don't think he'll be a 1st ballot. Might take him a few years, but I think he gets in. I brought this up a couple years ago before his final year in Atlanta and his final year in Atlanta definitely improved his chances. I was met with a lot of laughter. The way he threw in 2010, he could've pitched another 3-4 years and easily gotten 500 saves and finished 3rd all time.

His credentials over 16 years:

7 time All-Star with 4 different teams.
2.31 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 900 IP
12 K/9 and a K/BB of 4!
5th all time with 422 saves
1,200 K and never started a game!

What could hurt him is his godawful postseason numbers in 14 games (10.03 ERA - ouch).

IMO, he's a top 5 closer of all time and possibly top 3 (behind Mo and Eck). I think he had better careers than Hoffman, Smith, Sutter, Gossage, and Fingers.

HPC · Jan 10, 2013

Compelling.

He could get in but wont likely be his first 5 attempts but can definitely see him in later on.

PadresFan86 · Jan 10, 2013

No because he played in the steroid era so he must have used them like Biggio and Piazza.

Sent from my HUAWEI-M920 using Freedom Card Board mobile app

ThoseBackPages · Jan 10, 2013

XXXX NO!

predatorkj · Jan 11, 2013

I could see it.

uniquebaseballcards · Jan 11, 2013

Hard to see him getting in.

JAWS	Relief Pitcher (18th), 26.9 career WAR/19.3 7yr-peak WAR/23.1 JAWS Average HOF RP (out of 5) = 37.9 career WAR/26.7 7yr-peak WAR/32.3 JAWS

markakis8 · Jan 11, 2013

uniquebaseballcards said:
Hard to see him getting in.

JAWS Relief Pitcher (18th), 26.9 career WAR/19.3 7yr-peak WAR/23.1 JAWS
Average HOF RP (out of 5) = 37.9 career WAR/26.7 7yr-peak WAR/32.3 JAWS

I don't think so. He played 16 years and is either top 3 or top 5 in every important statistic for relief pitching.

How many relief pitchers finished their career in with over 400 saves, a WHIP under 1.00 and k/9 of at least 12...the answer has to be ONE.

Now I'm not saying Wagner is better than Mo, b/c Mo is the best....but....

Mo's ERA/WHIP: 2.21/0.99
Wagner's ERA/WHIP: 2.31/0.99

I realize Mo has pitched 300 more innings and 180 more saves, but also has played 2 more years and on a perennial winning team.

P_Manning 18 · Jan 11, 2013

He goes in after Lee Smith gets in.

jbhofmann · Jan 11, 2013

Does he meet the height requirement?

uniquebaseballcards · Jan 11, 2013

markakis8 said:
He played 16 years and is either top 3 or top 5 in every important statistic for relief pitching. ...

I admit I find this is interesting, but I can't get too excited about this because there haven't been many pure RPs in the history of baseball, especially ones that pitched for as long as he has. It will also be interesting to see how his vote totals turn out.

PadresFan86 · Jan 11, 2013

P_Manning 18 said:
He goes in after Lee Smith gets in.

Smith should be in...

P_Manning 18 · Jan 11, 2013

PadresFan86 said:
Smith should be in...

I think so too... but Wagner shouldnt go in before him. Mariano should... but not Billy Wagner

PadresFan86 · Jan 11, 2013

Rivera and Hoffman hands down...

AndruwHRJones · Jan 11, 2013

Hoffman and Rivera get in. I can't see them voting 3 relievers from this era.

Austin · Jan 11, 2013

Wagner was awesome and dominant, but I don't think he'll come close to 75%.
I'd be surprised if he got 30% of the writers' votes.

Lee Smith was the all-time leader in saves for 13 years before Rivera and Hoffman passed him, and he never came close to being voted in, despite being one of the most feared and intimidating relievers of all-time.
Plus, Wagner has the reputation of imploding in the Postseason.

Gossage, Sutter, Fingers, Eckersley all had a mystique that Wagner never had, and a reliever needs that to even have a chance of the Hall, even though that's unfair, since Wagner was one of the greatest regular season relievers ever.

WaxPax · Jan 11, 2013

Without complicating matters by looking deep into many stats, Keeping it simple, a Closer's job is to save games. Wagner is 5th all time in saves, and 2nd among LH RP's behind John Franco. If Franco isn't getting in being #1 all-time in saves for LHP's, Wagner should not either. Then as mentioned the Lee Smith issue as well. If Smith isn't in, neither should Wagner.

Nice arguement since both Franco & Wagner did pitch for the Mets....

markakis8 · Jan 11, 2013

Austin said:
Wagner was awesome and dominant, but I don't think he'll come close to 75%.
I'd be surprised if he got 30% of the writers' votes.

Lee Smith was the all-time leader in saves for 13 years before Rivera and Hoffman passed him, and he never came close to being voted in, despite being one of the most feared and intimidating relievers of all-time.
Plus, Wagner has the reputation of imploding in the Postseason.

Gossage, Sutter, Fingers, Eckersley all had a mystique that Wagner never had, and a reliever needs that to even have a chance of the Hall, even though that's unfair, since Wagner was one of the greatest regular season relievers ever.

You guys are just looking at saves....Lee Smith finished with an ERA over 3, a WHIP well over 1.2 and less than a strike out per inning....he was no where near as dominant as Wagner. Like I said earlier, Wagner would have only had to pitch 2 more years to eclipse the 4th and 3rd spots on the saves leaders. Just look at his last year, it was one his better statistical seasons!

Billy Wagner has Mariano type numbers during the regular season, 5th all time in saves, and finished with a CAREER k/9 rate of 12.

scotty216brs · Jan 11, 2013

I don't think he will make it in, but I would vote for him.

WaxPax · Jan 11, 2013

I will quote myself "...a Closer's job is to save games".... Period end of discussion, does it matter how it is done? A K is an out, same as a 4-3 ground ball...the other stats are fluff.

As far as Smith, when he retired he was the all time Saves leader, he should not be penalized because others passed him since....

markakis8 said:
You guys are just looking at saves....Lee Smith finished with an ERA over 3, a WHIP well over 1.2 and less than a strike out per inning....he was no where near as dominant as Wagner. Like I said earlier, Wagner would have only had to pitch 2 more years to eclipse the 4th and 3rd spots on the saves leaders. Just look at his last year, it was one his better statistical seasons!

Billy Wagner has Mariano type numbers during the regular season, 5th all time in saves, and finished with a CAREER k/9 rate of 12.

U L Washington Rookie · Jan 11, 2013

markakis8 said:
I don't think so. He played 16 years and is either top 3 or top 5 in every important statistic for relief pitching.

How many relief pitchers finished their career in with over 400 saves, a WHIP under 1.00 and k/9 of at least 12...the answer has to be ONE.

Now I'm not saying Wagner is better than Mo, b/c Mo is the best....but....

Mo's ERA/WHIP: 2.21/0.99
Wagner's ERA/WHIP: 2.31/0.99

I realize Mo has pitched 300 more innings and 180 more saves, but also has played 2 more years and on a perennial winning team.

The bolded really just means he was top-3 or top-5 in his generation (in those stats), considering how use of RPs has changed over time. I'm not sure that's a great argument for Hall-worthiness.

In a similar manner, great ratios one inning at a time is different than a little worse ratios under the expectation of outings > 1 IP. Comparing Wagner's ratios to Lee Smith's (done elsewhere in this thread) isn't a fair/direct comparison. A-S appearances are also not a great tool to use here considering how managing of the A-S game has changed.

Additionally, pitching for a winning team doesn't necessarily lead to more save opportunities than pitching for average or lesser teams.

Wagner was a fantastic closer and did what was asked of him. Without digging for other comparable RPs from his era, he seems to be behind, at a minimum, Mo and Hoffman. Should 3+ closers from one era make it in? I'm not so sure.

Welcome to our community

Be apart of something great, join today!

HOF debate: Billy Wagner

Active member

New member

New member

New member

Active member

New member

Active member

New member

Active member

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

Well-known member

Active member

Active member

Active member

Active member

Active member

Similar threads

Log in