True scarcity vs Manufactured scarcity,which is worth more $

I'm in a heated (and I do mean heated) debate about low run Just Minors cards, with a seller who claims he has like 90% of low numbered Just Minors cards of my PC guy Nick Markakis from 2004-2006. He claims to own a ton of players from those years as he "supposedly" spent a million dollars to acquire said inventory. Anyway, insults and insinuations aside, we've been locked in this debate about scarcity. He claims that his inventory is worth many times more than his initial "million dollar" investment, as these cards are virtually impossible to find as he's semi-cornered the market for auto printing plates, 1/1's and so on. As of his last email, he compares Just minors cards with the likes of a Clemens/Gwynn/Ripken etc minors cards of the late 70's and early 80's. I called him insane, and said there's a huge difference between true scarcity and manufactured scarcity. What do you guys think?

What an idiot...

i know the guy you are talking about, he does have what he says believe it or not.
whether or not it means a damn thing, who knows. but i know he never budges on his prices, and as soon
as any player he has a lot of gets so much as a base hit he jams the prices up another 5.00.
he doesnt care if he never sells the stuff.

I would say that true scarcity always trumps manufactured scarcity, but if this guy owns all of the low numbered cards of a certain player he can pretty much sell them for what he wants, and if he can afford to spend millions of dollars on cards without needing to get any return on them he can just sit on them until someone pays the price for them.

true scarcity trumps manufactured scarcity, however manufactured scarcity can create more value. Say someone bought every single blue ref /99 of a player in BCDP that hit ebay or any other site. If he makes it so that there are no more available, and sells them 1 by 1, the value will be sky high.

i voted for true scarcity. i never put a premium on non rc serial #d items, esecially those with sticker graphs.

I don't think the question boils down to True scarcity vs. manufactured scarcity.

The individual you are arguing with may be forgetting that supply is one one part of the equation in determining value. There could be limited supply, but if there isn't demand, there won't be any increases. It's as simple as that. I have a collection of super unique socks in my drawer (man you should see some of the holes, really one of a kind!!) No chance they are worth anything despite the scarcity.

And the notion of cornering the market on any card is a common misconception and almost an impossibility for various reasons (I've posted a novel discussing this idea but for starters 99% of the time it would cost way way way more than it worth be worth.)

Just/Donruss/Razor/Tri-Star

all those non MLB issues should be treated with a grain of salt when it comes to monetary value

It's not going to work in this case because of the low demand for Just cards.

However, with more desirable cards, manufactured scarcity is the same as true scarcity since both results in limiting the number of cards on the market (ie the supply). For example, if someone bought 20 out of the 25 orange refractors (and can prove it), then the remaining 5 orange refractors will start selling like red refractors. I don't think they'll sell for the same as red refractors but it'll be close.

There is no difference, scarcity is scarcity. The market creates value for every card, no matter how many exist. Any card with a print run 25 or under is scarce, but not all cards of the same players with the same scarcity are valued exactly the same.

neither. it depends on the card....

It really depends on the card you are talking about.

In some instances, a letterman card of a player numbered to 5 may actually sell for higher than a letterman card of a player numbered to 1. The reason for this is because several different collectors may be going for the full name of the numbered to 5 version, but no one may be trying to accomplish the name for the numbered to one version cause it is virtually impossible. So in certain auction situations, two different collectors may be willing to pay more money for a card that is more plentiful simply just to complete their set/goal.

I don't think your argument has anything to do with true or manufactured scarcity.

The only real question is will anyone ever want Just cards... And I would say it doesn't look good.

aw00d05 - I don't think the guy in question is an idiot per se, but he definitely is overvaluing his inventory by at least 60%, and is a little off base comparing the scarcity of 70's and early 80's minor league cards to the manufactured scarcity of Just cards.

boomo - I'm glad Im not the only one who knows about him or has dealt with him. I don't want to openly name names, as I don't feel like giving him free advertising on a board that has so many die hard collectors. It's just frustrating when a seller contacts me to make a deal and then proceeds to offer cards I need to shore up some holes in my PC for astronomical amounts.

chuckbartowski - I agree with that sentiment to an extent, but how long should you wait for a return on your investment? 5 years, 10 years? I understand and completely think the seller in question should make a healthy profit for the risk he's taking, and for the fact he has a lot of cards that a few completist's like myself are in need of. This is why a set collector should NEVER be a player collector, sigh.

mredsox89 - That doesn't always work as I think it will cost you more in the long run, and when you in turn try to flip them, people will still only pay what they consider is fair market value. You may make a profit on the first initial sales, but across the board it should settle at market value. Did that make sense?

Halonut - I don't put a premium on them either, but they do have some value to a player collector; But are low print run and 1/1's really worth $75 and $150 per? For Just Minor's Markakis cards? Maybe half that on a good day, and definitely not in this market.

Topnotchsy - Agreed Top, and that's been my main argument all along. Just because you have a huge lot of low numbered stuff, that's great, but pricing out almost all of your potential buyers because "other sellers don't respect their inventory on Ebay, I do" (direct quote) is just ludicrous. Great sock example, I have quite a few that fit the bill

ThoseBackPages - Very true Eric, and I do, but you being a completist like myself, you understand where I'm coming from.

fengzhang - Feng, I've been having the same argument also, but the seller in question likens his cards to 70-80's early minor league cards, and because he supposedly owns 6000 of an 8000 set run, plates, 1/1 autos etc, he thinks he's sitting on a gold mine. The problem is, for him to realize the prices he wants, these players need to have all-star, hof worthy careers, or an insane player collector following. These are 2004-2006 Just minors cards. At best, in my opinion, he needs at least a 15 year, HOF career for a given player to make him the profits he's looking for. I see that as a waste of time, effort and potential profits, he could be using his money much better to sell at a modest profit and continue to build his inventory and sales. A (lets say) 100% profit over the course of 15 years doesn't sound that good to me.

sportscardtheory - So it's really a case by case basis then? Depending on player and collectability?

hofautos - Same as sportscardtheory then....

brouthercard - Good example of how the market places value on the card. Well said.

flightposite - I guess that's really the question at hand, but I wanted to see what the general consensus thinks.


All this being said, I truly think the seller does deserve a profit for his investment, and Just cards do hold some value to player collectors who are trying to achieve as complete a player collection as they can. But, I do believe comparing your inventory with the likes of Gwynn/Ripken and Clemens minor league cards is just being delusional at best, just trying to justify to yourself that you made a wise decision buying up a ton of Just cards at a premium.

Thanks for the replies guys

Tell the other guy that manufactured scarcity might equal actual scarcity only if the manufactured scarcity cards (all his extra cards) were destroyed!

There's nothing to stop him from suddenly selling or trading all the extra cards.

I read a great quote the other day...something along the line of...

"Something can only be valuable as a collectible if it was once NOT valuable as a collectible."

Obviously, modern cards circumvent the key to that equation, because people see dollar signs surrounding them before the cards themselves ever leave their respective packs.

Certainly, there are exceptions to every rule, but, for the most part, I find that quote to be spot on.

cop out answer is it depends, HOWEVER, manufactured scarcity usually comes crashing down, ei.(2001 bowman chrome ron davenport and 2000 omega pineiro rc) unless you actually destroy the cards, you can never quite accomplish cornering a market.....what happens if the dude suddenly passes....

fengzhang said:

It's not going to work in this case because of the low demand for Just cards.

However, with more desirable cards, manufactured scarcity is the same as true scarcity since both results in limiting the number of cards on the market (ie the supply). For example, if someone bought 20 out of the 25 orange refractors (and can prove it), then the remaining 5 orange refractors will start selling like red refractors. I don't think they'll sell for the same as red refractors but it'll be close.

Click to expand...

Have you ever seen this in action? I'm asking because my experience, while not exactly the same, seems to indicate otherwise.

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but I've owned a fairly large percentage of the 1999 Topps Traded Carl Crawford Auto BGS 9.5's, and it never seemed to play any role on the market as a whole (despite the fact that many people on the BMB knew I had so many.)

With the guy who has been picking up all the 2001 Pros and Prospects Teixeira, I believe the increase in prices has less to do with the fact that there are "so few" left, and much more to do with the fact that the 1-2 people who want a single copy can't seem to get one. Also, I think that they are counting on the idea that they can always sell it to that guy at a profit, so they don't mind paying increased prices.

I know that I have never in my life seen a card where someone actually created a scarcity by holding on to a majority of the copies. I do not believe it is the reality of the situation (barring a few very specific examples, life if someone picked up 400 Pujols BC RC Auto's) and in those cases the cost to accumulate them would be way higher than any resale potential.

Topnotchsy said:

fengzhang said:

It's not going to work in this case because of the low demand for Just cards.

However, with more desirable cards, manufactured scarcity is the same as true scarcity since both results in limiting the number of cards on the market (ie the supply). For example, if someone bought 20 out of the 25 orange refractors (and can prove it), then the remaining 5 orange refractors will start selling like red refractors. I don't think they'll sell for the same as red refractors but it'll be close.

Click to expand...

Have you ever seen this in action? I'm asking because my experience, while not exactly the same, seems to indicate otherwise.

Click to expand...

Sure, you see it all the time. A $12 BV insert shows up and sells for $60 because there are 4-5 collectors who just have to have it and it rarely appears on Ebay.

Is it because the insert is truly rare? Not likely. Back in 1995-2000 you could probably find it relatively easily. Is it artificially rare (meaning someone is hoarding it)? Who knows? (again not likely because there's not a limited print run) But a lot of these late 1990's inserts sell for big bucks because they don't often appear on Ebay and IT DOESN'T MATTER why they don't appear on Ebay.

So, it may take awhile if you're hoarding a card #'d/50 for the buyers to realize that the card is becoming scarce but sooner or later they'll clue in on it. Any player collector has a list of cards that they'd buy in a heartbeat regardless of what Beckett says it's worth (including a bunch of cards that you wouldn't think would be so hard to obtain). This is because over the years, after tracking Ebay sales, they realize that these cards are only appearing 1-2 times a year (and it doesn't matter why they are only appearing 1-2 times a year).

fengzhang said:

Topnotchsy said:

fengzhang said:

It's not going to work in this case because of the low demand for Just cards.

However, with more desirable cards, manufactured scarcity is the same as true scarcity since both results in limiting the number of cards on the market (ie the supply). For example, if someone bought 20 out of the 25 orange refractors (and can prove it), then the remaining 5 orange refractors will start selling like red refractors. I don't think they'll sell for the same as red refractors but it'll be close.

Click to expand...

Have you ever seen this in action? I'm asking because my experience, while not exactly the same, seems to indicate otherwise.

Click to expand...

Sure, you see it all the time. A $12 BV insert shows up and sells for $60 because there are 4-5 collectors who just have to have it and it rarely appears on Ebay.

Is it because the insert is truly rare? Not likely. Back in 1995-2000 you could probably find it relatively easily. Is it artificially rare (meaning someone is hoarding it)? Who knows? (again not likely because there's not a limited print run) But a lot of these late 1990's inserts sell for big bucks because they don't often appear on Ebay and IT DOESN'T MATTER why they don't appear on Ebay.

So, it may take awhile if you're hoarding a card #'d/50 for the buyers to realize that the card is becoming scarce but sooner or later they'll clue in on it. Any player collector has a list of cards that they'd buy in a heartbeat regardless of what Beckett says it's worth (including a bunch of cards that you wouldn't think would be so hard to obtain). This is because over the years, after tracking Ebay sales, they realize that these cards are only appearing 1-2 times a year (and it doesn't matter why they are only appearing 1-2 times a year).

Click to expand...

I believe that is only true when the set is one that is highly collected (so these is no other card that is a replacement option.) I also wonder if that is because 1 person has hoarded a lot, or because with the older cards people wonder if it will "ever" turn up again (ever being subject to their own personal patience.)