Francisco Lindor

As the prospect i've invested in more than anyone in the last few years, seems like Lindor is inching his way towards the #1 spot on some prospect lists. Started scouring boxes yesterday and as of last night i've found 43 gem chrome base autos and 8 gem blues...


Could be a fun few months or the wheels could fall off as soon as this is posted...

Francisco Lindor, Simply Elite | FanGraphs Baseball

He just reminds me of Alcides Escobar in a worse market. Now, Escobar is one of my favorite players in baseball, but I just can't see the huge payday coming unless he absolutely kills it (a la Starlin Castro) right out of the gate in MLB.

You'll make your money no doubt, but I wouldn't get greedy. As soon as he hits the top five and it's in-season....sell.

In my opinion anyway. He's a great player, but he doesn't have the power at that position (IMO) to generate the big payoff. Agree?

sheetskout said:

He just reminds me of Alcides Escobar in a worse market. Now, Escobar is one of my favorite players in baseball, but I just can't see the huge payday coming unless he absolutely kills it (a la Starlin Castro) right out of the gate in MLB.

You'll make your money no doubt, but I wouldn't get greedy. As soon as he hits the top five and it's in-season....sell.

In my opinion anyway. He's a great player, but he doesn't have the power at that position (IMO) to generate the big payoff. Agree?

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My buy in was around 35 and there are a couple up now in the 50's with a day or so left.

As for the escobar comp, lindor has better plate discipline now than escobar has at 26 years old. in 621 at bats he's k'd 96 times and walked 73. He's also getting a nice number of XBH.

I'm not sure we're talking about a guy who will hit 20+ homers a year but he is a fairly complete hitter.

I was really bearish on Lindor in the offseason and have been very surprised at his XBH numbers thus far. He is hitting at a BABIP that will be hard to maintain (.408), but even if his BABIP regresses to a more normal rate, he is hitting the ball very consistently.

My concerns have always been his XBH numbers (been good this year, and it seems like he is maintaining them for now) his L/R splits and the team he plays for. From a selling perspective, he is limited by being a Cleveland player and his lack of HRs. I think in the pros, he'll be a reliable 285/385/415 guy. 15 HR on average, 20 on a good year. I'd love him on my team, but I don't see his BC autos staying above $60 or $70 once he's in the bigs for a few years. I can't think of many light hitting middle infielders that stay above those levels. On the other hand, he is basically Jurickson Profar without the power and a slightly slower development, age-wise.

Another concern for me is Dorssys Paulino being behind him and (for now) at the same position. Paulino has significantly more power than Lindor and a pretty comparable hit tool (though he is adjusting poorly to full season ball).

In his favor is that his autos started selling high out of the gate, which inflates their sale value a good deal, he's also a known hobby name and a high round pick that baseball journalists pay attention to. Another factor is that he had, at the time of his BC autos, a much more ornate signature that will probably devolve into a scribble in the next couple years. Collectors may keep a premium on his early cards for that reason.

If I were you, I'd set a price that you want to sell for, and as soon as they get there, start selling them off. If he stays with Cleveland, he'll be a good MLB regular on a small market team. However, before then he will be a talked about prospect that will get people excited to buy his cards. I'd sell some when he starts getting the hype (provided he keeps the power numbers up), and keep a few for his callup. Long term, I don't see him maintaining the high prices that come along with those two price bumps. If you look at someone like Starlin Castro, who is basically what Lindor will look like if everything goes perfectly for him, his BC prices are around $70-90 for BGS 9.5s, and that is inflated by him being on a large market, popular team. I don't think he'll ever be quite as good as Starlin, but even if he is, it looks to me his ceiling is around $70 for a BGS 9.5 long term. Short term, I think that they could hit $100-125 and I'd sell those at that.

But, I was wrong about him before, so who knows.

Meanwhile I have to figure out how to sell my Sonny Gray's in anticipation of his callup.

I cant disagree much with what you said although prospects sell based on hype in most cases and there is no way i'm holding for major league performance. I'm waiting for him to develop over the next few months or so. He's a teenager this whole season at high A so we'll see how it goes. Castro seems like a very solid comp although I think profar is just as good a comp when you look at their tools plus size.

One thing is for sure. if i have these when he gets to the majors, something went wrong...

phillyfan0417 said:

One thing is for sure. if i have these when he gets to the majors, something went wrong...

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The prospector's golden rule. Because if you're waiting for the Mike Trouts, your going to fail 99/100 times. (In, General, not pointed at you Philly)

sheetskout said:

The prospector's golden rule. Because if you're waiting for the Mike Trouts, your going to fail 99/100 times. (In, General, not pointed at you Philly)

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Agree 100%

When I see Lindor's name, the first thing I think of is power. I've seen a lot of talk regarding his inability to hit for power but watching him win the Aflac HR derby has stuck in my mind. Of course what matters is whether or not it translates into games but to hit more balls out of Petco Park than any other aflac all american means something.