- Thread starter
- #1
Just came out. Surprising to see Gray above Appel, IMO.
Next Friday, this list expands to 250, and the following Friday, to 500. Sorry, I don't have enough time to copy and paste all 500 into this thread (I doubt anyone wants me to, anyway).
2013 Draft Top 100 Scouting Reports
May 10, 2013 by Staff Report
The BA Top 100 Prospects list as selected after conversations with MLB scouts around the country.
1. Jonathan Gray, rhp, Oklahoma
Gray’s metamorphosis from a live-armed but chubby high schooler to a potential No. 1 overall choice is reminiscent of Stephen Strasburg’s. His stuff calls to mind Gerrit Cole, another top overall pick. Drafted in the 13th round out of an Oklahoma high school in 2010 by the Royals and in the 10th round out of Eastern Oklahoma State JC in 2011 by the Yankees, Gray steadily improved before exploding in his second season with the Sooners. After maxing out at 94 mph in high school, he now works comfortably at 94-97 and can hit 100 mph while looking like he’s just playing catch. Gray’s fastball also features heavy life. He shows the ability to dial it down to 92-94 in the middle innings before turning it back up toward the end of games, a la Justin Verlander. He has refined his slider into a wipeout pitch with depth and bite, and he can make hitters look silly with an improved changeup that bottoms out at the plate. Gray has firmed up his frame to a solid 6-foot-4 and 239 pounds, and he has his delivery and his pitches more under control than ever. He has maintained a high level of performance all spring, carrying an 8-1, 1.20 record with a 104-16 K-BB ratio and a .166 opponent average through his first 12 starts. If the Astros pass on Gray with the No. 1 selection, it will be an upset if he gets past the Cubs at No. 2.
2. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford
Appel picked up where he left off last year, after he turned down $3.8 million from the Pirates as the eighth overall pick. As a senior, he fine-tuned his stuff and graduated with a degree in management science and engineering. He shows everything scouts look for in a frontline pitcher. He’s 6-foot-5 and 215 pounds with a clean delivery, and he is a solid athlete who played basketball in high school. Appel’s fastball sits in the mid-90s and gets as high as 98 mph, and he holds his velocity deep into games. His slider is a plus pitch that generates swings and misses with its sharp, late break. Under Stanford pitching coach Rusty Filter—who was Stephen Strasburg’s pitching coach at San Diego State—Appel has gotten a little more downhill with his fastball and has improved his changeup as a senior, and it should be at least an average third offering. Appel has improved every year at Stanford and dominated as a senior, and he should move quickly through the minor leagues.
3. Kris Bryant, 3b/of, San Diego
Bryant has shown huge raw power since his high school days in Las Vegas, and has blossomed into college baseball’s premier slugger. He posted a 1.081 OPS and nine homers as a freshmen, then a 1.154 OPS and 14 long balls as a sophomore, but he has taken his game to new heights as a junior, posting a 1.357 OPS and 25 home runs (seven more than any other Division I player) through 49 games. Opponents have pitched him very carefully, but he has remained patient, posting a 56-31 walk-strikeout mark. Bryant’s best tool is his plus-plus righthanded power, allowing him to launch towering shots over the light standard in left field or hit balls over the fence to the opposite field. He has adopted a wider base and a simpler approach at the plate this year, and he has impressed scouts with his ability to turn on inside fastballs or go the other way with sliders over the outer half. His plate discipline and ability to consistently barrel up a variety of pitches make him a safe bet to be at least an average hitter, and many scouts think he’ll be better than that. Bryant’s arm gives him another above-average tool. His athleticism gives him at least a chance to stick at third, although he’ll need plenty more repetitions to master the position. Some scouts project him as a prototypical right fielder. He has average speed and can be faster under way, and he has shown good instincts in right and center.
4. Clint Frazier, of, Loganville (Ga.) HS
Frazier brings premium bat speed, solid athleticism and an all-out style, making him a strong contender to be the first high school player drafted this year. However, scouts do not put him in the same class as last year’s top prospect, fellow Georgia prep outfielder Byron Buxton (now with the Twins). While he’s modestly sized, Frazier has fast-twitch athleticism and strength in his hands, wrists and forearms. He generates tremendous bat speed and plus-plus raw power that should play at any level. He hits ‘em far and hits homers with regularity. While Frazier has a compact swing, scouts expect him to swing and miss a decent amount with his aggressive approach and modest feel for hitting. He’s an above-average runner whose speed plays better offensively than in the field. Frazier’s defense in center field remains raw; he lacks instincts and tries to outrun his mistakes. He has shown above-average arm strength in the past, but scouts say he has played through pain this spring and his arm has played as average or worse at times. Thanks to his bat and power, Frazier should hit enough if he has to move to a corner and fits in the first 10 selections.
5. Austin Meadows, of, Grayson HS, Loganville, Ga.
Meadows entered the season as the No. 1 prep hitter in the country before being passed by his neighbor, Clint Frazier. It’s not necessarily because Meadows had a bad spring, though. The physical lefthanded hitter has a 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame, maintaining his athleticism even though he added 10-15 pounds since last summer. Scouts consider it good weight, so it may be a challenge for Meadows to remain in center field down the line. He has modest arm strength but is athletic enough to play all three outfield spots. Scouts have significant confidence in his bat, which projects to be formidable. Meadows has a smooth, easy swing that he repeats and he covers the plate well. His mature approach stands out at the prep level, and he has the leverage to hit for corner-profile power. Some scouts do question his loft power thanks to a flat bat path and a relative lack of looseness, and some others consider him a bit low-energy for their taste. Still, he combines athleticism with one of the safest bats in the draft and should go out in the first 10-12 selections.
6. Kohl Stewart, rhp, St. Pius X HS, Houston
A premium football recruit as a quarterback, Stewart passed for 8,803 yards and 87 touchdowns in three high school seasons before committing to play two sports at Texas A&M. It’s unlikely he’ll ever play for the Aggies because he’s the top high school pitcher in the draft. He may not get the No. 1 overall pick buzz of righthanders Jonathan Gray (Oklahoma) and Mark Appel (Stanford), but one scouting director said, “Stewart’s pure stuff is as good as theirs, and he’s more athletic than they are.” Scouts love the 6-foot-3, 190-pounder’s arsenal, athleticism and competitiveness. They say that he has better present stuff than Jameson Taillon did when the Pirates took the suburban Houston righthander No. 2 overall in 2010. Stewart has boosted his fastball from 88-93 mph last summer to 91-96 for much of the spring, though his velocity tails off at times in the later innings. His life and command with his heater make it even more dominating, but his best offering is a power mid-80s slider with tilt. He has improved his curveball and shows feel for his changeup, and he’ll display four above-average big league pitches at times. He has a clean delivery and should get even better once he concentrates solely on baseball. Stewart has been limited at times this spring because of minor shoulder (a carryover from football), hamstring and thumb ailments, but none is a major concern. Neither is his signability, because he’ll get picked early enough to be paid handsomely and teams don’t believe he’ll go to Texas A&M to sit behind reigning Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel. Some clubs could shy away from Stewart because he’s a Type 1 diabetic, though Brandon Morrow went fifth overall in 2006 with the same condition. Stewart should go in the same range this June.
7. Colin Moran, 3b, North Carolina
A few teams liked Moran as a high schooler out of Rye, N.Y., but his strong commitment and ties to North Carolina, as well as rough defense at third base, prompted him to go undrafted in 2010. The nephew of 1985 No. 1 overall pick B.J. Surhoff and younger brother of Mariners farmhand Brian Moran, he stepped into the middle of the Tar Heels’ lineup in 2011 and was BA’s Freshman of the Year. He missed part of his sophomore season with a broken hand after punching a wall but was healthy and productive in the Cape Cod League last summer. He’s had his best season as a junior, entering May atop the Division I leaderboards in runs and RBIs. Moran combines outstanding control of the strike zone with size, strength and power. He covers the plate, lays off pitcher’s pitches, has excellent hand-eye coordination and drives the ball to all parts of the ballpark. Scouts consider his hitting ability more advanced than his power, and he projects to have profile plus power for third base. He has improved greatly with the glove. His good hands play both in the field and at the plate, and he combines plus arm strength with accuracy. The 6-foot-3, 215-pounder’s biggest weakness is his below-average speed, but most scouts still consider him athletic enough to stay at third. Most also expect him to come off the board in the first 10 picks.
8. Braden Shipley, rhp, Nevada
While Nevada has produced big leaguers, the school has never had a first-round pick. That will change this year, as Shipley emerged as one of the draft’s biggest risers. Shipley was a two-way player in high school in Oregon and was recruited as a shortstop, but his arm was so good that the coaching staff gave him a shot on the mound during his sophomore year. Then he leaped up draft boards after being named the No. 1 prospect in the Alaska League last summer. Shipley’s fastball sits in the 93-95 mph range and gets as high as 98, and he already has feel for one of the draft’s best changeups. He doesn’t use his curveball much, but has a feel for spin, too. His breaking ball is a hard, downer pitch in the upper 70s, and he has experimented with a cutter. Shipley is a good athlete and makes difficult defensive plays on the mound look routine. Athleticism runs in his family, and his cousin Jordan Shipley was a wide receiver for the Bengals, Buccaneers and Jaguars. Shipley also pitches with a mean streak on the mound and is fearless when it comes to challenging hitters and owning the inner half of the plate.
9. Trey Ball, lhp/of, New Castle (Ind.) HS
Coming into the year, the industry was split on whether Ball had a brighter future as an outfielder or a pitcher. That’s no longer a question, as he has excelled on the mound to the extent that he could go in the first five picks overall. He has surpassed Indiana State’s Sean Manaea as the top lefthander available by showing better stuff and more athleticism. Ball’s fastball dipped to the upper 80s when he wore down toward the end of the showcase circuit last summer, but he has maintained a 91-94 mph heater all spring despite cold and wet weather. He still carries just 180 pounds on his 6-foot-6 frame, so he has plenty of room to add strength and velocity. His athleticism is equally impressive, as he does a fine job of maintaining and repeating his delivery for such a young and tall pitcher. His father restricted his use of a curveball before his junior season, but Ball already shows aptitude for spinning the ball and has an above-average breaker. He learned to rely on his changeup, which he throws with deceptive arm speed and nice fade. He has a fast arm and a clean arm action, and in a rarity for a high school arm, he has no obvious red flags. While Ball is a likely top 10 choice as a pitcher, the Padres would consider drafting him at No. 13 as an outfielder if he’s available and he would go in the second or third round if he were strictly a position player. He’s a plus runner with lefthanded power potential, though he has seemed a little anxious at the plate this spring and his bat speed is a tick down from its previous level. He profiles best as a right fielder but would have a chance to play center, and scouts rave about his makeup as well. A Texas recruit, he won’t come close to stepping foot on campus.
10. Sean Manaea, lhp, Indiana State
Manaea broke out in the Cape Cod League last summer as its pitcher of the year and top prospect. He struck out a league-high 85 batters in 52 innings while holding opponents to a .119 average, thanks to an explosive mid-90s fastball that never seemed to find the barrel of a bat. His first pitch this spring was 96 mph, but he has mostly pitched at 88-93 mph and not held his velocity deep into games. He rolled his right ankle celebrating a dramatic win over Minnesota ace Tom Windle on March 15, an injury that led to hip problems. To his credit, Manaea has tried to pitch through it, but in his first start in May, he topped out at 91 on a rainy day against Evansville and worked at 84-87 mph in the fourth inning before the game was called. The 6-foot-5, 235-pounder has to rely on his fastball, which features plenty of life and deception when he’s right, to help his secondary pitches play up. He’ll flash a quality slider and uses a split/changeup as his offspeed pitch, but neither gives him a consistently above-average No. 2 pitch. His command and control, which were sharp last summer despite his low three-quarters arm angle, also have regressed. Manaea continues to post quality numbers (1.61 ERA, 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings, .192 opponent average), but he has been far from the guy who overmatched the Cape. Teams are trying to figure out whether last summer’s version or this spring’s is the true Manaea. As one scouting director said, “He’ll be the most-scouted player in the draft over the last month.” There’s still time for him to work his way as high as No. 3 to the Rockies, but teams that never thought they’d have a shot at Manaea are making sure they do their due diligence.
11. Ryne Stanek, Arkansas
The 99th overall pick in 2010, Stanek turned down the Mariners to attend Arkansas, and as a sophomore he helped the Razorbacks reach the College World Series, beating two-time defending champion South Carolina. He touched 97 mph with his fastball in that outing while mixing in both curveballs and sliders and a changeup here and there. He entered 2013 with high expectations and started slowly before finding his form. His fastball ranges from 92-98 mph, with long levers and twitchy athleticism that help him generate arm speed. His slider has real power in the 84-87 mph range when it’s right, and he has improved the feel for his changeup. Stanek doesn’t have the prettiest mechanics as he has adjusted to try to throw more strikes, shortening his stride to help him stay on top of the ball. Scouts also believe he lacks deception because he doesn’t get consistent swings and misses with his fastball or slider despite elite velocity. He’s averaged less than 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings over more than 218 college innings. A tweak here or there could unlock Stanek’s frontline potential, but other scouts see him as a future closer or set-up man in the Daniel Bard mold.
12. Reese McGuire, c, Kentwood HS, Covington, Wash.
McGuire was known by scouts early, playing in the 2011 Area Code Games as a junior before leading his high school team to a state championship in 2012. He was named USA Baseball’s Dick Case player of the year after he hit .400/.522/.514 for the gold-medal-winning 18-and-under team last summer. McGuire showed his athletic versatility with Team USA, playing third base and outfield, but he’s best as a catcher in pro ball. He is a natural behind the plate. He remains loose, even after adding strength to his 6-foot-1, 190-pound build. His receiving, blocking and arm strength are all above-average, and he has been calling his own games since he was 10 years old. He has a high baseball IQ and game awareness. The question will be how much McGuire will hit. He has a smooth lefthanded swing with strength and bat speed and shows the tools to be an above-average pure hitter with average power. The San Diego recruit runs better than most catchers. Even if he doesn’t reach his offensive ceiling, McGuire’s defense will allow him to be a big league backup, but if he hits he has all-star potential.
13. Hunter Renfroe, of, Mississippi State
Primarily a catcher and pitcher in high school, Renfroe intrigued scouts with his top-shelf power and arm strength. The Red Sox drafted him in the 31st round, but Renfroe wanted to go to Mississippi State and wound up there. Mississippi’s single-season prep home run king, he arrived in Starkville raw and got just 26 at-bats as a freshman, then batted a modest .252/.328/.374 as a sophomore starter. He’s gained confidence and playing time with consecutive summers in the Cal Ripken League, where he hit a league-record 16 home runs last summer, prompting the Bethesda Big Train to retire his jersey. Renfroe has carried that confidence and improvement into the spring; entering May, he was in contention for both the old-school (AVG, HR, RBI) and slash-stats (AVG/OBP/SLG) triple crowns in the Southeastern Conference. He has polished his approach and gets to more of his well above-average raw power, though scouts still expect him to swing and miss plenty as a pro. He’s an asset defensively with a powerful arm and above-average speed. The 6-foot-1, 216-pounder fits the right-field profile well if he maintains his improved hitting approach, and he has hit his way into the first round.
14. Dominic Smith, 1b, JSerra HS, Gardena, Calif.
Smith has been a big name in the Southern California prep ranks for years, and he has justified the hype by continuing to perform at a high level as a senior. He has an innate feel for his barrel, a relaxed approach and a pretty lefthanded stroke, causing most scouts to project him as a plus hitter in the big leagues. He still wastes at-bats and chases at times, and he can get caught on his front foot, but he has the bat speed and hand-eye coordination to get away with it at this level, and he has the aptitude to make adjustments. As he spends more time in the weight room and learns to stay back and use his lower half better, he figures to hit for plus power. Smith’s other plus tool is his defense at first base, where he has soft hands, quick feet and great instincts. He can touch 90 mph off the mound, and his arm plays well at first base. It doesn’t work as well in right field, where he is more of a fringy defender with below-average speed. But he can be a Gold Glove defender at first base with enough offensive potential to make him an all-star. The game comes easily to him, and he is so smooth sometimes that he can almost look nonchalant, but scouts rave about his makeup and work ethic.
15. D.J. Peterson, 3b/1b, New Mexico
The Mariners drafted Peterson in the 33rd round out of high school in 2010, and he turned down a six-figure offer to head to New Mexico. That decision will pay off this summer, as Peterson figures to go in the top half of the first round as one of the class’ best all-around bats. Scouts gush about his hitting ability. He has short, hitter’s arms, tremendous bat speed and strength, and always hits the ball on the screws. His hitting mechanics are sound, with quick, strong hands, and he shows the ability to make adjustments on the fly. He has keen pitch recognition skills and already has a pro approach to his at-bats. While New Mexico plays at an elevation higher than Coors Field, scouts say Peterson’s power is legitimate. That’s good because defense will never be a big part of his game. He is a below-average runner with an above-average arm. He moves well for his 6-foot-1, 205-pound frame and should get a chance to stick at third base, but he’ll likely wind up in left field or first base. Peterson’s bat should allow him to move quickly.
16. J.P. Crawford, ss, Lakewood (Calif.) HS
Crawford has athletic bloodlines: his father Larry played nine years in the Canadian Football League, and Dodgers outfielder Carl Crawford is a relative. He has become a much more fluid defender over the last two years, making him the rare prep prospect with a real chance to play shortstop in the major leagues. His long arms and game awareness give him good range, especially to his left and on balls in front of him. He needs to improve on balls to his right, but his above-average arm should allow him to make plays from the hole, and he has sure hands and good actions. He projects as a solid-average or slightly better defensive shortstop and an average hitter with fringy power. Crawford has good hand-eye coordination, which allows him to spray line drives to all fields, but he has a high set-up and a bit of a loop in his swing. He can turn on balls on occasion, but he needs to get stronger and smooth out his swing in order to get on top of good fastballs. Crawford is a solid-average runner who takes good turns and has baserunning savvy. He is committed to Southern California.
17. Eric Jagielo, 3b, Notre Dame
Jagielo went 15 picks from the bottom of the 2010 draft out of high school in Illinois, and he should go roughly that far from the top this year. He combines the ability to hit for power and average like few players available. He finished second in the Cape Cod League last summer with 13 homers, showing pop to all fields as the ball exploded off his lefthanded bat. The knocks on Jagielo were a tendency to chase pitches and questionable defense at third base, but the 6-foot-3, 215-pounder has addressed both this spring. He has shown more discipline, made more contact and done a better job of using the whole field. He now projects to hit for a solid average with at least plus power. While he’s a below-average runner and his agility and reactions still need improvement, scouts believe Jagielo will be able to stick at the hot corner. His actions, hands and arm all are fine for the position. He played all four corner positions for the Fighting Irish, not becoming a full-time third baseman until mid-2012. Jagielo has a chance to surpass Ken Plesha (17th overall in 1965) and A.J. ******* (ditto in 2009) as the highest-drafted position players in Notre Dame history.
18. Ian Clarkin, lhp, Madison HS, San Diego
Clarkin punctuated his strong performance on the 2012 summer showcase circuit with six strong innings in the gold medal game to lead USA Baseball’s 18-and-under team to the IBAF 18U World Championship in Seoul, South Korea, in September. He got off to a strong start this spring with a good showing at the Southern California Invitational in February, establishing himself as the top prep pitcher in the region. Clarkin has feel for pitching with three quality offerings. His fastball sits at 90-92 mph and bumps 93-94, and he pitches inside aggressively, but sometimes his fastball command falters. He flashes a plus downer curveball with sharp bite, and he can locate it to both sides of the plate when he’s on. He also has shown the makings of an average (but inconsistent) changeup with good arm speed and fade. Clarkin needs refinement, but his three-pitch arsenal and competitiveness give him a chance to be a quality major league starter down the road. He is committed to San Diego.
19. Jonathon Crawford, rhp, Florida
Most colleges recruited Crawford as an outfielder, but a Gators assistant liked his arm strength and got him to throw a bullpen during some down time at a high school showcase. Soon, Crawford had an offer to pitch for the Gators, and though he made just five appearances as a freshman, he emerged as a prospect that summer, racking up 51 strikeouts in 38 innings in the Northwoods League. He pitched his way into Florida’s weekend rotation as a sophomore, tossing a no-hitter against Bethune-Cookman in regional play and earning a spot on USA Baseball’s college national team last summer. The Gators and Crawford got off to slow starts this season, but scouts saw no dropoff in his stuff. He still has an electric arm with a durable, strong 6-foot-1, 205-pound frame. His fastball sits 92-96 mph at its best, and he holds that velocity deep into games. Crawford powers through a less-than-clean delivery and struggles to repeat his release point, so he fights his fastball command and doesn’t consistently deliver his plus slider in the 82-84 mph range. His changeup has progressed but remains a distant third pitch. Crawford looks like a reliever to some scouts, but the paucity of college pitching makes it likely he’ll go out in the first round and get an opportunity as a starter.
20. Nick Ciuffo, c, Lexington (S.C.) HS
Nobody helped themselves more at the National High School Invitational than Nick Ciuffo. Against premium competition, he showed good hitting ability, refined catching skills and an improved frame—standing at a chiseled 6-foot-1, 205 pounds with broad shoulders. Ciuffo stood out on the summer circuit for his bat and chance to catch, but scouts have been impressed by his improvements behind the plate. He is a good receiver with a strong arm and quick release. He plays with energy and has matured into a leader on the field for a nationally ranked team. He projects to hit for at least average power and draws comparisons to A.J. Pierzynski for his tools and competitive edge. He committed to South Carolina before recording a varsity at-bat and has excellent baseball aptitude, recalling at-bats against Stetson Allie as a freshman and breaking down opposing players for scouts. He’s not as athletic as Reese McGuire and doesn’t have the same power as Jonathan Denney, but he has the best all-around skills of that group and could go in the first round.
21. Phillip Ervin, of, Samford
Ervin wasn’t drafted out of high school, in part due to tearing a knee ligament as a football player. He has dealt with a less-serious injury this spring, a sprained left ankle. The problem pushed him to left field for a time and clouded some teams’ evaluations of whether he can stay in center field. For scouts that believe he can, Ervin presents one of the surest bets among college outfielders in the draft class. Ervin lacks the size and physicality of the likes of Stanford’s Austin Wilson or Fresno State’s Aaron Judge, but that’s an asset for him. He’s shorter at 5-foot-10, 205 pounds, has fewer holes in his swing, better hitting ability and above-average raw power thanks to his compact, strong swing. Ervin is a plus runner at his best, but scouts are mixed on his center-field ability. Those who like him see him as a solid-average center fielder early in his career and believe his speed plays better in the field than on the bases. He has enough arm strength to have pitched occasionally for Samford and could slide to right field eventually. Ervin’s blue-collar makeup and quiet confidence further endears him to scouts. Despite improved performance as a junior—he already had a career-high 11 homers and 31 walks—Ervin was thought to be sliding out of the first round, due in part to his ankle injury.
22. Rob Kaminsky, lhp, St. Joseph Regional HS, Montvale, N.J.
At 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, Kaminsky is short, but scouts won’t call him small. He is put together with a strong frame and big, strong hands. His fastball sits comfortably in the 89-92 mph range and can bump 93-94. His command is solid and scouts like his competitive demeanor, as he isn’t afraid to pitch inside. He throws a nasty, downer curveball, a present plus pitch and arguably the best among high school pitchers in the class. He also shows feel for a changeup that projects to be at least average. His height doesn’t lend to much projection and can prevent him from pitching in the bottom of the zone, but he is the most advanced arm in the prep class. He didn’t give up an earned run for the first five weeks of his season and broke his school’s record for career strikeouts in early May. He is committed to North Carolina, but likely won’t make it to campus as he is projected to go in the later part of the first round.
23. Jonathan Denney, c, Yukon (Okla.) HS
Denney established himself as a potential first-round pick with his performance on the showcase circuit last summer, highlighted by a 431-foot homer at the Area Code Games and a 2-for-3 day with a double at the Under Armour All-American Game. Denney’s calling card is his righthanded power, which he generates with quality bat speed and strength. He may have to tone down his aggressive approach when he faces better pitching in college (he’s an Arkansas recruit) or pro ball, however. The 6-foot-2, 205-pounder should provide enough offense to profile at first base if he can’t stick at catcher, but that shouldn’t be an issue. Denney has solid arm strength, though he needs to refine his footwork to get the most out of his throws. He has the hands to be an effective receiver and moves well behind the plate. Denney’s bat speed and stock were down a little, but he still has a good chance to become just the second Oklahoma high school catcher taken in the first round, after Darrell Porter was the No. 4 overall choice in 1970.
24. Hunter Harvey, rhp, Bandys HS, Catawba, N.C.
The son of former major league closer Bryan Harvey, Hunter offers lots of projection between his stuff and frame. He is 6-foot-3, 175 pounds, with room to add strength. His arm is quick and generates a fastball that sits 89-92 mph. He reportedly hit 97 early in the spring, but has battled unseasonably cold weather and hasn’t shown that kind of velocity on a regular basis. He has a sharp breaking ball that’s inconsistent but projects to be at least an average pitch. Pitching in western North Carolina, Harvey doesn’t face great competition, so he dominates hitters with his fastball and rarely throws a changeup. He has flashed a good one and includes it in his pregame bullpen routine. Harvey has not made a college commitment and has been open about his desire to start pro ball, which could move him up draft boards.
25. Phil Bickford, rhp, Oaks Christian HS, Westlake Village, Calif.
Bickford intrigued scouts with his projectable 6-foot-4, 195-pound body and 88-92 mph fastball last summer at the Area Code Games, and his velocity has jumped this spring, as has his draft stock. He pitches comfortably in the 90-93 mph range and regularly runs his fastball up to 95-96. He has a clean arm action and a three-quarters slot that gives his fastball good life, and he commands it well to both sides, prompting some scouts to grade it as a 70 pitch on the 20-80 scale. He’s a short strider with an upright finish, and sometimes his slot drops below three-quarters, causing him to pitch uphill. Bickford’s secondary stuff lags behind his fastball. He shows glimpses of a fringe-average slider, but he needs to do a better job staying on top of it. He tinkers with a changeup but seldom uses it because he can dominate high school hitters with his fastball. Bickford pumps strikes and works quickly, and his upside could get him drafted in the back of the first round, but many scouts are more comfortable with him as a second-rounder because of his underdeveloped offspeed stuff. Bickford could be a tough sign away from Cal State Fullerton.
26. Chris Anderson, rhp
Jacksonville
Big and physical at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, Anderson should give Jacksonville its first-ever first-round pick. Like the Dolphins’ third-round product of 2012, outfielder Adam Brett Walker, Anderson is a Minnesota prep product, and he’s evolved from the team’s closer as a freshman to its Friday ace as a junior. His performance has improved significantly through his college career, as he has boosted his strikeouts, cut his walks and become more consistent across the board. Early in the season, under a heavy workload, Anderson showed scouts a front-of-the-rotation fastball, pitching downhill and touching 96 mph. He’s usually in the 90-94 mph range, holds his velocity and throws strikes. He got strikeouts early both with the fastball and slider, which flashed plus. He also throws a much-improved changeup. Anderson generates velocity more from strength than arm speed, and most scouts see him as an innings-eater in the middle of a rotation. His timing helps, as a consensus starter in a year short on college arms.
27. Billy McKinney, of
Plano (Texas) West HS
McKinney has one of the sweetest swings in the 2013 draft, and he has hit his way into the first round with a strong spring. He generates excellent bat speed from the left side of the plate, and he barrels balls with ease thanks to his hand-eye coordination and disciplined approach. The 6-foot-2, 195-pounder has strength and should grow into solid power. The rest of McKinney’s tools are fringy to average, but his arm and speed play up because he goes all-out all the time. Scouts love his makeup and are confident that he’ll provide the offense required on an outfield corner. Texas Christian holds on to many of its top recruits, but the Horned Frogs will likely lose McKinney when he goes in the second half of the first round.
28. Marco Gonzales
Gonzaga
Gonzales has grown up around the game. His father Frank was a lefthander who played eight years in the minor leagues and is the Rockies’ short-season pitching coach this season. Marco was on the mound for four consecutive state championships in high school and will rank near the top of a few career records at Gonzaga after three years. He doesn’t have a high ceiling, but at 6-foot-1 and 185 pounds he’s polished and is a good athlete who has played both ways for the Bulldogs. His fastball sits in the 88-91 mph range. It can get flat at times, but he paints the corners with above-average command. But he’s getting drafted for his changeup, the best in this year’s class. It’s a deceptive offering with fade and scouts have no problem grading it as a 70 pitch on the 20-80 scale. He also mixes in an average curveball and cutter. Scouts love Gonzales’ makeup and he could move quickly through the minor leagues. With his frame, stuff and athleticism he has earned comparisons to Jason Vargas.
29. Austin Wilson, of
Stanford
Wilson was one of the top high school prospects in the 2010 draft out of Harvard-Westlake High in Studio City, Calif., but a Stanford commitment drove him down to the Cardinals in the 12th round. He didn’t sign, and three years later still is more about potential than performance. Few players in this year’s class can match Wilson’s tools. He’s a chiseled specimen at 6-foot-5 and 245 pounds, a prototype right fielder and a solid-average runner who could play center field in a pinch. He gets great jumps on the ball and takes instinctive routes. With his cannon arm, he’ll be an above-average defender, but he still needs to prove himself with the bat. He has plenty of bat speed and strength, but has a lot of moving parts to his swing and struggles with pitch recognition. He has racked up big strikeout numbers in college, so scouts wonder if he’ll be able to tap into his above-average power. Wilson is even more of a wild card because he missed a chunk of the season with a mild stress reaction in his right elbow.
30. Aaron Judge, of
Fresno State
With a build that’s rare for baseball at 6-foot-7 and 255 pounds, Judge earns physical comparisons to NBA player Blake Griffin. He was a three-sport athlete in high school and got most of his college offers for football as a tight end. But he loved baseball and headed to Fresno State—where both his parents went—even after the Athletics drafted him in the 31st round out of high school. Judge puts on jaw-dropping batting practice displays, but some scouts worry that his power won’t translate to games. He hit four home runs as a sophomore and had eight so far this season as he got bigger in his stance and made adjustments. Judge profiles as a .250 hitter and is going to strike out a lot, which comes with the territory for tall power hitters with long arms. A team can live with the strikeouts if he hits 30-plus home runs a year. While his swing is more about strength and leverage than bat speed, he has light-tower power. Judge is a solid-average runner with an above-average arm and will be a solid defender in right field.
31. Hunter Green, lhp
Warren East HS, Bowling Green, Ky.
Green struggled in his first start of the spring in bad weather with an audience of 40 scouts, but the 6-foot-4, 180-pounder has steadily increased his velocity since, operating in the low 90s and peaking at 95 mph a month before the draft. He throws from a low three-quarters arm angle and gets good armside run on his fastball, which appears even quicker because he throws with such little effort. Green still has projection remaining. He also has the potential for three plus pitches, displaying a quality curveball when he stays on top of it as well as feel for a changeup. The Kentucky has some minor mechanical flaws that affect his control, but those should be correctable.
32. Matt Krook, lhp
St. Ignatius HS, San Francisco
Krook had as much helium as any high school prospect this spring—no surprise considering how much scouts love lefthanders with his size and stuff. While he has been inconsistent this spring, Krook has flashed enough stuff to go in the back half of the first round. At his best, the 6-foot-4, 195-pound southpaw sits 90-92 mph, touches 95 and shows flashes of a hard curveball. Krook doesn’t have a changeup and there is some effort to his delivery, so he will need refinement to project as a starter. The team that drafts him will give him that opportunity, and if he can iron those things out and improve his command, Krook could be a mid-rotation starter. He is a quiet kid and his family places an emphasis on education, so he is considered a tough sign away from his Oregon commitment.
33. Connor Jones, rhp
Great Bridge HS, Chesapeake, Va.
A pupil of the National Pitching Association and a Virginia recruit, Jones already pitches with the Cavaliers’ trademark squat delivery, and it works well for him. Jones pitches from a three-quarters arm slot and sits 90-91 mph while touching a tick higher. His biggest strength is fastball life, as he throws a heavy ball that gets above-average sink. He also throws a slider that flashes plus at times and a changeup that could be an average pitch down the road. He has a strong, compact frame at 6-foot-3, 190 pounds and is a good athlete. The biggest question with Jones is his signability. On talent, he could sneak into the first round, but Virginia commitments have proven tough signs in the past, and Jones sent all 30 clubs a letter in early May saying he intended to honor his commitment to UVa., though he added getting drafted “would be pretty cool.” He stopped short of withdrawing from the draft as another Virginia recruit, Nathan Kirby, did in 2012.
34. Tim Anderson, ss
East Central (Miss.) JC
It’s a banner year for Mississippi junior colleges, and Anderson has a chance to become the highest-drafted such player in a June draft. A Tuscaloosa, Ala., native, Anderson missed much of his high school baseball career due to basketball, first because of knee injuries as a sophomore, then because of a state title run as a junior that overlapped much of baseball season. He focused on baseball in junior college and hit .328 with five home runs in the Jayhawk League last summer. He has followed up by showing solid power this spring to go with his other prodigious tools. Anderson stands out in a draft class light on middle infielders. Scouts aren’t sold that he’ll stick at shortstop thanks to average arm strength. He has middle-infield actions and needs repetition at the pro level to see where he’ll stick. His athleticism and plus-plus speed would play in center field. Some scouts see power in Anderson’s bat and consider him a potential Brandon Phillips, while others see him as a faster version of Orlando Hudson. Either way, Anderson will be the first or second middle infielder picked and won’t be following through on his commitment to Alabama-Birmingham.
35. Kyle Serrano, rhp
Farragut (Tenn.) HS
Serrano’s father Dave is the head coach at Tennessee and previously was head coach at Cal State Fullerton and UC Irvine, so Kyle has been exposed to the game at a high level from a young age, such as traveling with USA Baseball College National Teams when his father has been on the staff. That experience, plus his father’s long career as a pitching coach, help give the 6-foot-2, 195-pounder an advanced approach. Serrano missed much of last spring with a cracked rib but pitched on the summer showcase circuit, showing good control for a prep to go with solid stuff. This spring, his stuff has gone from solid to spectacular at times, with his fastball at times sitting anywhere from 90-91 mph to 92-94. Serrano’s father has a reputation for teaching the changeup, and Kyle has flashed a plus change, though it was better last year. His curveball, however, has taken a step forward and at times is above-average, with plus potential. Serrano has a compact, easy delivery with minimal wasted effort. He offers little projection but has now stuff, with the potential for three plus pitches. Serrano naturally is a Tennessee recruit, and it’s hard to imagine his father not bringing him in to help the Volunteers.
36. Bobby Wahl, rhp
Mississippi
A northern Virginia product, Wahl turned down reported $1 million offers in the 2010 draft to attend Mississippi. He established himself as the staff ace the last two seasons, and was the closer for USA Baseball’s college national team last summer. Wahl pitches with a 90-94 mph fastball at his best as a starter and hit 97 last summer, and scouts have seen flashes of a plus slider and solid-average changeup with late action. He has battled blister problems all spring and had arm soreness last summer that prompted Team USA to avoid using him on back-to-back nights. His slider has backed up this spring, in part due to the blisters, while his fastball slipped to the 89-92 mph range with an occasional 94. Some scouts blame his diminished velocity on an over-reliance on the slider. Still, Wahl has dominated, going 9-0, 1.21 through 12 starts while limiting opponents to a .178 average. Scouts laud his improved feel and toughness. His competitiveness and pitching savvy have served him well, and if his stuff bounces back, he could be one of the best college starters in this class.
37. Ryan Eades, rhp
Louisiana State
Eades doesn’t pitch Fridays like most potential college first-round picks, but that’s more a testament to sophomore righthander Aaron Nola, a potential top 10 pick in 2014. Scouts are watching to see if Eades loses steam down the stretch as he did last season, and they’ve been watching Eades for a while. He was hitting 94 mph as a 16-year-old, then injured his shoulder when he was a prep junior. He had labrum surgery and missed his senior season but has been healthy all three years at Louisiana State. He has an athletic 6-foot-3, 198-pound frame and looks the part of a frontline starter, running his four-seamer up to 90-95 mph and adding a two-seamer this year to get more early-count contact. He’s honed his breaking ball into a power curveball that scrapes the low 80s, and has improved his changeup under the tutelage of pitching coach Alan Dunn, a longtime pro pitching coach. Eades grades out better than he’s performed, though he has improved his strikeout rate from 6.0 strikeouts per nine innings to 8 K/9 IP as a junior. Eades tends to miss armside and high when he leaks out on his front side or gets fatigued, but his strong work ethic has reduced that in 2013. He slots into the 20-40 range on most teams’ draft boards but could go higher with a strong finish.
38. Oscar Mercado, ss
Gaither HS, Tampa
Born in Colombia, Mercado and his family moved to the U.S. when he was 8 years old. Six years later he was a varsity starter. Mercado had a better 2012 than he did in 2013. In fact, he had a better 2010, his freshman year at Gaither High in Tampa, when he hit .310 as he stepped in as a starter. Still growing at 6-foot-2, 175 pounds, Mercado struggled under the microscope of his draft season, hitting just .286 with five extra-base hits. Gaither went just 11-12 and failed to make the playoffs, ending Mercado’s season in late April. He was expected to get an invitation to Florida’s heavily-scouted state all-star game in Sebring at the end of May, which will be his last chance to make positive impression for scouts. He’ll try to remind them of his bat last year, when he hit .370 for Gaither. At his best he shows a mechanically sound swing and bat control and gap power. Mercado likely will never hit for power, but he does play the small game well. He’s an average runner with outstanding instincts on the bases, as well as in the field. He’s a smooth, fluid defender whose glove will give him a chance to survive as a pro while his bat develops and strength catches up. He has good hands and footwork and a plus arm, as well as the ability to make accurate throws from different angles. Mercado’s commitment to Florida State and poor spring could make it tough to figure out his signability.
39. Hunter Dozier, ss/3b
Stephen F. Austin State
Stephen F. Austin produced just one player selected above the 13th round in the first 48 drafts, and now Dozier should easily surpass Bryson Myles (sixth round, 2011) as the highest pick in school history. Scouts describe him as a Jeff Kent-style player in a Drew Stubbs body. Dozier has adjusted his approach this spring, abandoning a crouch and standing more upright, allowing him to use his hands better in his swing. He’s also doing a better job of managing the strike zone and with a month to go before the draft, he was hitting .404 and ranked fourth in NCAA Division I in doubles (22), homers (14) and slugging (.770). Dozier carries a lot of strength in his 6-foot-4, 220-pound frame, and the righty slugger has exceptional power to the opposite field. He could hit 20-25 homers annually in the big leagues. Dozier also moves well for his size and may be able to stay at shortstop for a while, though he’ll lack the quickness to play there in the big leagues. He has close to average speed and moves well enough to be an asset at third base and possibly at second. His arm isn’t in question, as he showed a 91-93 mph fastball in relief appearances a year ago.
40. Cord Sandberg, of
Manatee HS, Bradenton, Fla.
Sandberg’s timing is excellent. He’s an athlete with size and power potential in a draft class where such players are in short supply. Crosscheckers who have seen both players compare Sandberg to Georgia prep outfielder Austin Meadows physically, and many of Sandberg’s tools are on par with those of Meadows, who entered the year as the No. 1 prep player in the country. Sandberg has a quarterback’s build at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, and he committed to Mississippi State for football after throwing for 2,674 yards and 35 touchdowns last season. The football commitment could complicate signability for Sandberg, but he’s believed to want to play pro baseball. His father Chuck played at Florida and also played minor league baseball in the Red Sox system, though he also was a prep football coach for more than 20 years. Sandberg’s two-sport history has curtailed his baseball experience, and it shows in his instincts and defense. He profiles best in left field but has a chance to stick in center if he learns better reads and jumps to go with his average speed. Sandberg shows plenty of strength and raw power as well as bat speed, and scouts credit him for making strides with his hitting approach this spring. He’s expected to go out in the second or third round.
41. Aaron Blair, rhp
Marshall
Blair jumps off the page when you look at Marshall’s roster, if only because he hails from Las Vegas, 2,000 miles from Huntington, W.Va. He also stands out with a 6-foot-5, 220-pound frame and a fastball that ranges from 88-95 mph with heavy life. He works with a plus changeup that has good fading action and throws a curveball and slider, both of which are inconsistent but could be average pitches. Given his three-quarters arm slot, Blair might be best suited moving forward with the slider. Scouts also love his bulldog mentality on the mound. He was 5-4, 2.36 in 11 starts for the Thundering Herd with 78 strikeouts and 26 walks in 72 innings. Opponents were hitting just .176 against him and he had surrendered only one home run. He is unlikely to get past the second round.
42. Alex Balog, rhp
San Francisco
Balog generated buzz in the fall with his sturdy, 6-foot-5, 210-pound build and a fastball that touched 96 mph. He got out of the gate slowly this spring but has heated up as the season went on and was climbing draft boards as he pitched with more confidence and an aggressive demeanor. In addition to his durable frame, Balog shows the potential for three above-average pitches. His fastball sits in the 92-95 mph range with heavy life, and he holds his velocity deep into games. He throws both an 82-84 mph slider and a power curveball. Balog doesn’t use his changeup much now, but it should be serviceable. He is a good athlete who also played four years of water polo in high school in San Jose.
43. Alex Gonzalez, rhp
Oral Roberts
The best Oral Roberts pitching prospect since No. 1 overall pick Mike Moore in 1981, Gonzalez steadily has improved since the Orioles made him an 11th-round pick out of a Florida high school three years ago. He doesn’t garner a lot of national attention pitching for the Golden Eagles, but he could sneak into the first round and has a realistic ceiling of a No. 3 starter in the big leagues. The 6-foot-3, 200-pounder usually deals at 90-94 mph with his fastball, and batters can’t square it up because he throws it with natural cut and sink to both sides of the plate. His true slider, which runs as hot as 87 mph, is one of the best in the draft and gives him a second swing-and-miss offering. He’s making progress with a changeup, and he can mix in an occasional curveball as a show-me pitch. Gonzalez pounds the strike zone, has a sound delivery and exhibits good mound presence.
44. Devin Williams, rhp
Hazelwood (Mo.) West HS
Scouts noted Williams’ projectable frame at last summer’s USA Baseball Breakthrough Series, where the 6-foot-3, 172-pounder worked at 85-88 mph from a loose, easy delivery. He has reached his fastball velocity sooner than anticipated, jumping to 91-93 mph last fall at the World Wood Bat Association World Championships and often showing the same heat this spring. He usually pitches at 88-92 mph with his two-seam fastball and can approach 95 with his four-seamer. Though Williams is inconsistent with his mechanics and his stuff, when he’s at his best he stays closed and direct with his delivery and exhibits feel for three pitches. His breaking ball can get slurvy but also can be a low-80s slider at the knees, and his fading, sinking changeup can throw hitters off balance. He’s athletic and his arm works well. A Missouri recruit, Williams has looked like a first-round pick at times. While there’s speculation that the Cardinals could take the suburban St. Louis product at No. 28, he fits better in the second round.
45. Andrew Thurman, rhp
UC Irvine
Thurman had success with fringe-average fastball velocity as a sophomore, when he went 8-3, 2.66 and threw a no-hitter against Long Beach State, and his velocity spiked this spring, giving him a strong chance to be UCI’s highest-drafted player since 1974, when Jeff Malinoff (now a national crosschecker for the Angels) went in the second round. Thurman has held his 90-93 mph fastball velocity deep into games and routinely topped out at 95. He pounds the strike zone but needs to hone his command because he has a tendency to pitch up in the zone. His best secondary pitch is an average changeup that he is comfortable throwing to righties as well as lefties. The primary knock against Thurman is his lack of a power breaking ball. His below-average curveball is serviceable at best, and he picked up a short slider in the Cape Cod League last summer. That pitch flashes fringe-average when it’s on, but he tends to yank it out of the zone at times. Scouts and coaches rave about his makeup and work ethic.
46. Tom Windle, lhp
Minnesota
After spending most of his first two college seasons in the bullpen, Windle starred as a starter in the Cape Cod League last summer and has done so again this spring, tossing the first nine-inning no-hitter in Minnesota’s storied history against Western Michigan on March 8. He has a strong 6-foot-4, 215-pound frame and a pair of plus pitches in his fastball and slider. He usually works at 90-94 mph with his heater, delivering it on a steep downward plane. His slider is an out pitch in the mid-80s, and he can bury it on the hands of lefties or the back foot of righties. Scouts don’t love Windle’s delivery, which features some stiffness and recoil, and some wonder if he has the third pitch, athleticism and command to be a big league starter. He has improved his arm speed with his changeup and his ability to locate his pitches this year. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter, or of a closer if he winds up in the bullpen. A 28th-round pick of the White Sox out of a Minnesota high school three years ago, Windle has a twin brother Sam who plays hockey at Bemidji State (Minn.).
47. Corey Knebel, rhp
Texas
Like Huston Street before him, Knebel went from an unheralded Texas high schooler to an instant star with the Longhorns. He ranked second in NCAA Division I with 19 saves as a freshman in 2011 and has been one of college baseball’s top closers for three years. Compared to Street, the 6-foot-4, 205-pound Knebel is more physical and has more power to his pitches. His fastball ranges from 91-98 mph, and when he stays on top of it, he has a hard curveball with depth that can reach the low 80s. He has deception in his delivery that makes it tough to pick up his pitches but doesn’t prevent him from throwing strikes. Knebel has the frame and enough feel for a changeup for a pro team to consider using him in the rotation, a role he filled for three starts at the end of 2012. With his two power pitches and his competitive makeup, but he has big league closer upside and could reach that ceiling quickly. Knebel has been suspended twice this spring in the midst of a disappointing season for Texas, once for a confrontation with a coach and once for reportedly substituting his urine for a teammate’s drug test. Neither incident is expected to affect his draft status.
48. Trey Masek, rhp
Texas Tech
Primarily a reliever as a sophomore, Masek emerged as one of the best righthanded starting pitching prospects in the Cape Cod League last summer. He carried that momentum over to the start of this season, when he allowed just one earned run and 21 hits in his first 40 innings. He hasn’t been as sharp since a bout with rotator-cuff tendinitis sidelined him for a month. Masek throws strikes with four offerings, working primarily off an 89-93 mph fastball that reaches 95 and a curveball with some sharpness to it. He also has a short cutter/slider and a changeup. New Texas Tech pitching coach Ray Hayward, the 10th overall pick in 1983 and a former big leaguer, has done a nice job of helping him smooth out his delivery, which in turn has improved his command. Masek’s relatively small stature (6-foot-1, 195 pounds) and monthlong layoff do lead to some concerns about his durability, though he still figures to go in the second round.
49. Andrew Mitchell, rhp
Texas Christian
Texas Christian planned on using Mitchell as its closer this year, but his first save situation didn’t come until the fourth week of the season. The struggling Horned Frogs moved him back into their rotation, where he spent much of his first two seasons, in late March. Scouts still are uncertain of his future role, but they don’t quibble with his fastball and curveball. His heater sits at 90-94 mph when he starts and can reach 98 when he relieves. He has the best curveball among college prospects this year, a sharp 80-81 mph bender that can be unhittable. At 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, Mitchell has the frame for starting. But his low three-quarters angle is more suited for the bullpen, and he may not have enough consistency with his changeup and his command (which has regressed this spring) to stick in a big league rotation. His stuff plays up and he’s more aggressive as a reliever, and he could make an impact as a closer in the majors.
50. Jason Hursh, rhp
Oklahoma State
The Pirates failed to sign four high school arms in 2010 who should go in the top five rounds of the 2013 draft. Hursh, a sixth-rounder out of a Texas high school, is the best prospect of that group, which also includes Austin Kubitza (seventh round, now at Rice), Dace Kime (eighth round, Louisville) and Kent Emanuel (19th, North Carolina). Hursh pitched just 30 innings as a freshman in 2011 and missed last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. His velocity returned last summer, when he hit 103 mph according to the (notoriously juiced) scoreboard at the National Baseball Congress World Series. He has continued to light up radar guns as a redshirt sophomore, throwing 92-98 mph and sitting in mid-90s with little effort. Add in heavy life and late tail on his fastball, and it’s one of the most devastating pitches in the draft. Hursh still is developing feel for his secondary pitches, as he flashes an average slider and a decent changeup. He can live off his fastball, but hitters will sit on it until he develops a reliable No. 2 offering. There are durability concerns due to his 6-foot-1, 197-pound frame and his medical history, though he has improved his delivery and arm action since getting hurt.
Next Friday, this list expands to 250, and the following Friday, to 500. Sorry, I don't have enough time to copy and paste all 500 into this thread (I doubt anyone wants me to, anyway).
2013 Draft Top 100 Scouting Reports
May 10, 2013 by Staff Report
The BA Top 100 Prospects list as selected after conversations with MLB scouts around the country.
1. Jonathan Gray, rhp, Oklahoma
Gray’s metamorphosis from a live-armed but chubby high schooler to a potential No. 1 overall choice is reminiscent of Stephen Strasburg’s. His stuff calls to mind Gerrit Cole, another top overall pick. Drafted in the 13th round out of an Oklahoma high school in 2010 by the Royals and in the 10th round out of Eastern Oklahoma State JC in 2011 by the Yankees, Gray steadily improved before exploding in his second season with the Sooners. After maxing out at 94 mph in high school, he now works comfortably at 94-97 and can hit 100 mph while looking like he’s just playing catch. Gray’s fastball also features heavy life. He shows the ability to dial it down to 92-94 in the middle innings before turning it back up toward the end of games, a la Justin Verlander. He has refined his slider into a wipeout pitch with depth and bite, and he can make hitters look silly with an improved changeup that bottoms out at the plate. Gray has firmed up his frame to a solid 6-foot-4 and 239 pounds, and he has his delivery and his pitches more under control than ever. He has maintained a high level of performance all spring, carrying an 8-1, 1.20 record with a 104-16 K-BB ratio and a .166 opponent average through his first 12 starts. If the Astros pass on Gray with the No. 1 selection, it will be an upset if he gets past the Cubs at No. 2.
2. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford
Appel picked up where he left off last year, after he turned down $3.8 million from the Pirates as the eighth overall pick. As a senior, he fine-tuned his stuff and graduated with a degree in management science and engineering. He shows everything scouts look for in a frontline pitcher. He’s 6-foot-5 and 215 pounds with a clean delivery, and he is a solid athlete who played basketball in high school. Appel’s fastball sits in the mid-90s and gets as high as 98 mph, and he holds his velocity deep into games. His slider is a plus pitch that generates swings and misses with its sharp, late break. Under Stanford pitching coach Rusty Filter—who was Stephen Strasburg’s pitching coach at San Diego State—Appel has gotten a little more downhill with his fastball and has improved his changeup as a senior, and it should be at least an average third offering. Appel has improved every year at Stanford and dominated as a senior, and he should move quickly through the minor leagues.
3. Kris Bryant, 3b/of, San Diego
Bryant has shown huge raw power since his high school days in Las Vegas, and has blossomed into college baseball’s premier slugger. He posted a 1.081 OPS and nine homers as a freshmen, then a 1.154 OPS and 14 long balls as a sophomore, but he has taken his game to new heights as a junior, posting a 1.357 OPS and 25 home runs (seven more than any other Division I player) through 49 games. Opponents have pitched him very carefully, but he has remained patient, posting a 56-31 walk-strikeout mark. Bryant’s best tool is his plus-plus righthanded power, allowing him to launch towering shots over the light standard in left field or hit balls over the fence to the opposite field. He has adopted a wider base and a simpler approach at the plate this year, and he has impressed scouts with his ability to turn on inside fastballs or go the other way with sliders over the outer half. His plate discipline and ability to consistently barrel up a variety of pitches make him a safe bet to be at least an average hitter, and many scouts think he’ll be better than that. Bryant’s arm gives him another above-average tool. His athleticism gives him at least a chance to stick at third, although he’ll need plenty more repetitions to master the position. Some scouts project him as a prototypical right fielder. He has average speed and can be faster under way, and he has shown good instincts in right and center.
4. Clint Frazier, of, Loganville (Ga.) HS
Frazier brings premium bat speed, solid athleticism and an all-out style, making him a strong contender to be the first high school player drafted this year. However, scouts do not put him in the same class as last year’s top prospect, fellow Georgia prep outfielder Byron Buxton (now with the Twins). While he’s modestly sized, Frazier has fast-twitch athleticism and strength in his hands, wrists and forearms. He generates tremendous bat speed and plus-plus raw power that should play at any level. He hits ‘em far and hits homers with regularity. While Frazier has a compact swing, scouts expect him to swing and miss a decent amount with his aggressive approach and modest feel for hitting. He’s an above-average runner whose speed plays better offensively than in the field. Frazier’s defense in center field remains raw; he lacks instincts and tries to outrun his mistakes. He has shown above-average arm strength in the past, but scouts say he has played through pain this spring and his arm has played as average or worse at times. Thanks to his bat and power, Frazier should hit enough if he has to move to a corner and fits in the first 10 selections.
5. Austin Meadows, of, Grayson HS, Loganville, Ga.
Meadows entered the season as the No. 1 prep hitter in the country before being passed by his neighbor, Clint Frazier. It’s not necessarily because Meadows had a bad spring, though. The physical lefthanded hitter has a 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame, maintaining his athleticism even though he added 10-15 pounds since last summer. Scouts consider it good weight, so it may be a challenge for Meadows to remain in center field down the line. He has modest arm strength but is athletic enough to play all three outfield spots. Scouts have significant confidence in his bat, which projects to be formidable. Meadows has a smooth, easy swing that he repeats and he covers the plate well. His mature approach stands out at the prep level, and he has the leverage to hit for corner-profile power. Some scouts do question his loft power thanks to a flat bat path and a relative lack of looseness, and some others consider him a bit low-energy for their taste. Still, he combines athleticism with one of the safest bats in the draft and should go out in the first 10-12 selections.
6. Kohl Stewart, rhp, St. Pius X HS, Houston
A premium football recruit as a quarterback, Stewart passed for 8,803 yards and 87 touchdowns in three high school seasons before committing to play two sports at Texas A&M. It’s unlikely he’ll ever play for the Aggies because he’s the top high school pitcher in the draft. He may not get the No. 1 overall pick buzz of righthanders Jonathan Gray (Oklahoma) and Mark Appel (Stanford), but one scouting director said, “Stewart’s pure stuff is as good as theirs, and he’s more athletic than they are.” Scouts love the 6-foot-3, 190-pounder’s arsenal, athleticism and competitiveness. They say that he has better present stuff than Jameson Taillon did when the Pirates took the suburban Houston righthander No. 2 overall in 2010. Stewart has boosted his fastball from 88-93 mph last summer to 91-96 for much of the spring, though his velocity tails off at times in the later innings. His life and command with his heater make it even more dominating, but his best offering is a power mid-80s slider with tilt. He has improved his curveball and shows feel for his changeup, and he’ll display four above-average big league pitches at times. He has a clean delivery and should get even better once he concentrates solely on baseball. Stewart has been limited at times this spring because of minor shoulder (a carryover from football), hamstring and thumb ailments, but none is a major concern. Neither is his signability, because he’ll get picked early enough to be paid handsomely and teams don’t believe he’ll go to Texas A&M to sit behind reigning Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel. Some clubs could shy away from Stewart because he’s a Type 1 diabetic, though Brandon Morrow went fifth overall in 2006 with the same condition. Stewart should go in the same range this June.
7. Colin Moran, 3b, North Carolina
A few teams liked Moran as a high schooler out of Rye, N.Y., but his strong commitment and ties to North Carolina, as well as rough defense at third base, prompted him to go undrafted in 2010. The nephew of 1985 No. 1 overall pick B.J. Surhoff and younger brother of Mariners farmhand Brian Moran, he stepped into the middle of the Tar Heels’ lineup in 2011 and was BA’s Freshman of the Year. He missed part of his sophomore season with a broken hand after punching a wall but was healthy and productive in the Cape Cod League last summer. He’s had his best season as a junior, entering May atop the Division I leaderboards in runs and RBIs. Moran combines outstanding control of the strike zone with size, strength and power. He covers the plate, lays off pitcher’s pitches, has excellent hand-eye coordination and drives the ball to all parts of the ballpark. Scouts consider his hitting ability more advanced than his power, and he projects to have profile plus power for third base. He has improved greatly with the glove. His good hands play both in the field and at the plate, and he combines plus arm strength with accuracy. The 6-foot-3, 215-pounder’s biggest weakness is his below-average speed, but most scouts still consider him athletic enough to stay at third. Most also expect him to come off the board in the first 10 picks.
8. Braden Shipley, rhp, Nevada
While Nevada has produced big leaguers, the school has never had a first-round pick. That will change this year, as Shipley emerged as one of the draft’s biggest risers. Shipley was a two-way player in high school in Oregon and was recruited as a shortstop, but his arm was so good that the coaching staff gave him a shot on the mound during his sophomore year. Then he leaped up draft boards after being named the No. 1 prospect in the Alaska League last summer. Shipley’s fastball sits in the 93-95 mph range and gets as high as 98, and he already has feel for one of the draft’s best changeups. He doesn’t use his curveball much, but has a feel for spin, too. His breaking ball is a hard, downer pitch in the upper 70s, and he has experimented with a cutter. Shipley is a good athlete and makes difficult defensive plays on the mound look routine. Athleticism runs in his family, and his cousin Jordan Shipley was a wide receiver for the Bengals, Buccaneers and Jaguars. Shipley also pitches with a mean streak on the mound and is fearless when it comes to challenging hitters and owning the inner half of the plate.
9. Trey Ball, lhp/of, New Castle (Ind.) HS
Coming into the year, the industry was split on whether Ball had a brighter future as an outfielder or a pitcher. That’s no longer a question, as he has excelled on the mound to the extent that he could go in the first five picks overall. He has surpassed Indiana State’s Sean Manaea as the top lefthander available by showing better stuff and more athleticism. Ball’s fastball dipped to the upper 80s when he wore down toward the end of the showcase circuit last summer, but he has maintained a 91-94 mph heater all spring despite cold and wet weather. He still carries just 180 pounds on his 6-foot-6 frame, so he has plenty of room to add strength and velocity. His athleticism is equally impressive, as he does a fine job of maintaining and repeating his delivery for such a young and tall pitcher. His father restricted his use of a curveball before his junior season, but Ball already shows aptitude for spinning the ball and has an above-average breaker. He learned to rely on his changeup, which he throws with deceptive arm speed and nice fade. He has a fast arm and a clean arm action, and in a rarity for a high school arm, he has no obvious red flags. While Ball is a likely top 10 choice as a pitcher, the Padres would consider drafting him at No. 13 as an outfielder if he’s available and he would go in the second or third round if he were strictly a position player. He’s a plus runner with lefthanded power potential, though he has seemed a little anxious at the plate this spring and his bat speed is a tick down from its previous level. He profiles best as a right fielder but would have a chance to play center, and scouts rave about his makeup as well. A Texas recruit, he won’t come close to stepping foot on campus.
10. Sean Manaea, lhp, Indiana State
Manaea broke out in the Cape Cod League last summer as its pitcher of the year and top prospect. He struck out a league-high 85 batters in 52 innings while holding opponents to a .119 average, thanks to an explosive mid-90s fastball that never seemed to find the barrel of a bat. His first pitch this spring was 96 mph, but he has mostly pitched at 88-93 mph and not held his velocity deep into games. He rolled his right ankle celebrating a dramatic win over Minnesota ace Tom Windle on March 15, an injury that led to hip problems. To his credit, Manaea has tried to pitch through it, but in his first start in May, he topped out at 91 on a rainy day against Evansville and worked at 84-87 mph in the fourth inning before the game was called. The 6-foot-5, 235-pounder has to rely on his fastball, which features plenty of life and deception when he’s right, to help his secondary pitches play up. He’ll flash a quality slider and uses a split/changeup as his offspeed pitch, but neither gives him a consistently above-average No. 2 pitch. His command and control, which were sharp last summer despite his low three-quarters arm angle, also have regressed. Manaea continues to post quality numbers (1.61 ERA, 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings, .192 opponent average), but he has been far from the guy who overmatched the Cape. Teams are trying to figure out whether last summer’s version or this spring’s is the true Manaea. As one scouting director said, “He’ll be the most-scouted player in the draft over the last month.” There’s still time for him to work his way as high as No. 3 to the Rockies, but teams that never thought they’d have a shot at Manaea are making sure they do their due diligence.
11. Ryne Stanek, Arkansas
The 99th overall pick in 2010, Stanek turned down the Mariners to attend Arkansas, and as a sophomore he helped the Razorbacks reach the College World Series, beating two-time defending champion South Carolina. He touched 97 mph with his fastball in that outing while mixing in both curveballs and sliders and a changeup here and there. He entered 2013 with high expectations and started slowly before finding his form. His fastball ranges from 92-98 mph, with long levers and twitchy athleticism that help him generate arm speed. His slider has real power in the 84-87 mph range when it’s right, and he has improved the feel for his changeup. Stanek doesn’t have the prettiest mechanics as he has adjusted to try to throw more strikes, shortening his stride to help him stay on top of the ball. Scouts also believe he lacks deception because he doesn’t get consistent swings and misses with his fastball or slider despite elite velocity. He’s averaged less than 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings over more than 218 college innings. A tweak here or there could unlock Stanek’s frontline potential, but other scouts see him as a future closer or set-up man in the Daniel Bard mold.
12. Reese McGuire, c, Kentwood HS, Covington, Wash.
McGuire was known by scouts early, playing in the 2011 Area Code Games as a junior before leading his high school team to a state championship in 2012. He was named USA Baseball’s Dick Case player of the year after he hit .400/.522/.514 for the gold-medal-winning 18-and-under team last summer. McGuire showed his athletic versatility with Team USA, playing third base and outfield, but he’s best as a catcher in pro ball. He is a natural behind the plate. He remains loose, even after adding strength to his 6-foot-1, 190-pound build. His receiving, blocking and arm strength are all above-average, and he has been calling his own games since he was 10 years old. He has a high baseball IQ and game awareness. The question will be how much McGuire will hit. He has a smooth lefthanded swing with strength and bat speed and shows the tools to be an above-average pure hitter with average power. The San Diego recruit runs better than most catchers. Even if he doesn’t reach his offensive ceiling, McGuire’s defense will allow him to be a big league backup, but if he hits he has all-star potential.
13. Hunter Renfroe, of, Mississippi State
Primarily a catcher and pitcher in high school, Renfroe intrigued scouts with his top-shelf power and arm strength. The Red Sox drafted him in the 31st round, but Renfroe wanted to go to Mississippi State and wound up there. Mississippi’s single-season prep home run king, he arrived in Starkville raw and got just 26 at-bats as a freshman, then batted a modest .252/.328/.374 as a sophomore starter. He’s gained confidence and playing time with consecutive summers in the Cal Ripken League, where he hit a league-record 16 home runs last summer, prompting the Bethesda Big Train to retire his jersey. Renfroe has carried that confidence and improvement into the spring; entering May, he was in contention for both the old-school (AVG, HR, RBI) and slash-stats (AVG/OBP/SLG) triple crowns in the Southeastern Conference. He has polished his approach and gets to more of his well above-average raw power, though scouts still expect him to swing and miss plenty as a pro. He’s an asset defensively with a powerful arm and above-average speed. The 6-foot-1, 216-pounder fits the right-field profile well if he maintains his improved hitting approach, and he has hit his way into the first round.
14. Dominic Smith, 1b, JSerra HS, Gardena, Calif.
Smith has been a big name in the Southern California prep ranks for years, and he has justified the hype by continuing to perform at a high level as a senior. He has an innate feel for his barrel, a relaxed approach and a pretty lefthanded stroke, causing most scouts to project him as a plus hitter in the big leagues. He still wastes at-bats and chases at times, and he can get caught on his front foot, but he has the bat speed and hand-eye coordination to get away with it at this level, and he has the aptitude to make adjustments. As he spends more time in the weight room and learns to stay back and use his lower half better, he figures to hit for plus power. Smith’s other plus tool is his defense at first base, where he has soft hands, quick feet and great instincts. He can touch 90 mph off the mound, and his arm plays well at first base. It doesn’t work as well in right field, where he is more of a fringy defender with below-average speed. But he can be a Gold Glove defender at first base with enough offensive potential to make him an all-star. The game comes easily to him, and he is so smooth sometimes that he can almost look nonchalant, but scouts rave about his makeup and work ethic.
15. D.J. Peterson, 3b/1b, New Mexico
The Mariners drafted Peterson in the 33rd round out of high school in 2010, and he turned down a six-figure offer to head to New Mexico. That decision will pay off this summer, as Peterson figures to go in the top half of the first round as one of the class’ best all-around bats. Scouts gush about his hitting ability. He has short, hitter’s arms, tremendous bat speed and strength, and always hits the ball on the screws. His hitting mechanics are sound, with quick, strong hands, and he shows the ability to make adjustments on the fly. He has keen pitch recognition skills and already has a pro approach to his at-bats. While New Mexico plays at an elevation higher than Coors Field, scouts say Peterson’s power is legitimate. That’s good because defense will never be a big part of his game. He is a below-average runner with an above-average arm. He moves well for his 6-foot-1, 205-pound frame and should get a chance to stick at third base, but he’ll likely wind up in left field or first base. Peterson’s bat should allow him to move quickly.
16. J.P. Crawford, ss, Lakewood (Calif.) HS
Crawford has athletic bloodlines: his father Larry played nine years in the Canadian Football League, and Dodgers outfielder Carl Crawford is a relative. He has become a much more fluid defender over the last two years, making him the rare prep prospect with a real chance to play shortstop in the major leagues. His long arms and game awareness give him good range, especially to his left and on balls in front of him. He needs to improve on balls to his right, but his above-average arm should allow him to make plays from the hole, and he has sure hands and good actions. He projects as a solid-average or slightly better defensive shortstop and an average hitter with fringy power. Crawford has good hand-eye coordination, which allows him to spray line drives to all fields, but he has a high set-up and a bit of a loop in his swing. He can turn on balls on occasion, but he needs to get stronger and smooth out his swing in order to get on top of good fastballs. Crawford is a solid-average runner who takes good turns and has baserunning savvy. He is committed to Southern California.
17. Eric Jagielo, 3b, Notre Dame
Jagielo went 15 picks from the bottom of the 2010 draft out of high school in Illinois, and he should go roughly that far from the top this year. He combines the ability to hit for power and average like few players available. He finished second in the Cape Cod League last summer with 13 homers, showing pop to all fields as the ball exploded off his lefthanded bat. The knocks on Jagielo were a tendency to chase pitches and questionable defense at third base, but the 6-foot-3, 215-pounder has addressed both this spring. He has shown more discipline, made more contact and done a better job of using the whole field. He now projects to hit for a solid average with at least plus power. While he’s a below-average runner and his agility and reactions still need improvement, scouts believe Jagielo will be able to stick at the hot corner. His actions, hands and arm all are fine for the position. He played all four corner positions for the Fighting Irish, not becoming a full-time third baseman until mid-2012. Jagielo has a chance to surpass Ken Plesha (17th overall in 1965) and A.J. ******* (ditto in 2009) as the highest-drafted position players in Notre Dame history.
18. Ian Clarkin, lhp, Madison HS, San Diego
Clarkin punctuated his strong performance on the 2012 summer showcase circuit with six strong innings in the gold medal game to lead USA Baseball’s 18-and-under team to the IBAF 18U World Championship in Seoul, South Korea, in September. He got off to a strong start this spring with a good showing at the Southern California Invitational in February, establishing himself as the top prep pitcher in the region. Clarkin has feel for pitching with three quality offerings. His fastball sits at 90-92 mph and bumps 93-94, and he pitches inside aggressively, but sometimes his fastball command falters. He flashes a plus downer curveball with sharp bite, and he can locate it to both sides of the plate when he’s on. He also has shown the makings of an average (but inconsistent) changeup with good arm speed and fade. Clarkin needs refinement, but his three-pitch arsenal and competitiveness give him a chance to be a quality major league starter down the road. He is committed to San Diego.
19. Jonathon Crawford, rhp, Florida
Most colleges recruited Crawford as an outfielder, but a Gators assistant liked his arm strength and got him to throw a bullpen during some down time at a high school showcase. Soon, Crawford had an offer to pitch for the Gators, and though he made just five appearances as a freshman, he emerged as a prospect that summer, racking up 51 strikeouts in 38 innings in the Northwoods League. He pitched his way into Florida’s weekend rotation as a sophomore, tossing a no-hitter against Bethune-Cookman in regional play and earning a spot on USA Baseball’s college national team last summer. The Gators and Crawford got off to slow starts this season, but scouts saw no dropoff in his stuff. He still has an electric arm with a durable, strong 6-foot-1, 205-pound frame. His fastball sits 92-96 mph at its best, and he holds that velocity deep into games. Crawford powers through a less-than-clean delivery and struggles to repeat his release point, so he fights his fastball command and doesn’t consistently deliver his plus slider in the 82-84 mph range. His changeup has progressed but remains a distant third pitch. Crawford looks like a reliever to some scouts, but the paucity of college pitching makes it likely he’ll go out in the first round and get an opportunity as a starter.
20. Nick Ciuffo, c, Lexington (S.C.) HS
Nobody helped themselves more at the National High School Invitational than Nick Ciuffo. Against premium competition, he showed good hitting ability, refined catching skills and an improved frame—standing at a chiseled 6-foot-1, 205 pounds with broad shoulders. Ciuffo stood out on the summer circuit for his bat and chance to catch, but scouts have been impressed by his improvements behind the plate. He is a good receiver with a strong arm and quick release. He plays with energy and has matured into a leader on the field for a nationally ranked team. He projects to hit for at least average power and draws comparisons to A.J. Pierzynski for his tools and competitive edge. He committed to South Carolina before recording a varsity at-bat and has excellent baseball aptitude, recalling at-bats against Stetson Allie as a freshman and breaking down opposing players for scouts. He’s not as athletic as Reese McGuire and doesn’t have the same power as Jonathan Denney, but he has the best all-around skills of that group and could go in the first round.
21. Phillip Ervin, of, Samford
Ervin wasn’t drafted out of high school, in part due to tearing a knee ligament as a football player. He has dealt with a less-serious injury this spring, a sprained left ankle. The problem pushed him to left field for a time and clouded some teams’ evaluations of whether he can stay in center field. For scouts that believe he can, Ervin presents one of the surest bets among college outfielders in the draft class. Ervin lacks the size and physicality of the likes of Stanford’s Austin Wilson or Fresno State’s Aaron Judge, but that’s an asset for him. He’s shorter at 5-foot-10, 205 pounds, has fewer holes in his swing, better hitting ability and above-average raw power thanks to his compact, strong swing. Ervin is a plus runner at his best, but scouts are mixed on his center-field ability. Those who like him see him as a solid-average center fielder early in his career and believe his speed plays better in the field than on the bases. He has enough arm strength to have pitched occasionally for Samford and could slide to right field eventually. Ervin’s blue-collar makeup and quiet confidence further endears him to scouts. Despite improved performance as a junior—he already had a career-high 11 homers and 31 walks—Ervin was thought to be sliding out of the first round, due in part to his ankle injury.
22. Rob Kaminsky, lhp, St. Joseph Regional HS, Montvale, N.J.
At 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, Kaminsky is short, but scouts won’t call him small. He is put together with a strong frame and big, strong hands. His fastball sits comfortably in the 89-92 mph range and can bump 93-94. His command is solid and scouts like his competitive demeanor, as he isn’t afraid to pitch inside. He throws a nasty, downer curveball, a present plus pitch and arguably the best among high school pitchers in the class. He also shows feel for a changeup that projects to be at least average. His height doesn’t lend to much projection and can prevent him from pitching in the bottom of the zone, but he is the most advanced arm in the prep class. He didn’t give up an earned run for the first five weeks of his season and broke his school’s record for career strikeouts in early May. He is committed to North Carolina, but likely won’t make it to campus as he is projected to go in the later part of the first round.
23. Jonathan Denney, c, Yukon (Okla.) HS
Denney established himself as a potential first-round pick with his performance on the showcase circuit last summer, highlighted by a 431-foot homer at the Area Code Games and a 2-for-3 day with a double at the Under Armour All-American Game. Denney’s calling card is his righthanded power, which he generates with quality bat speed and strength. He may have to tone down his aggressive approach when he faces better pitching in college (he’s an Arkansas recruit) or pro ball, however. The 6-foot-2, 205-pounder should provide enough offense to profile at first base if he can’t stick at catcher, but that shouldn’t be an issue. Denney has solid arm strength, though he needs to refine his footwork to get the most out of his throws. He has the hands to be an effective receiver and moves well behind the plate. Denney’s bat speed and stock were down a little, but he still has a good chance to become just the second Oklahoma high school catcher taken in the first round, after Darrell Porter was the No. 4 overall choice in 1970.
24. Hunter Harvey, rhp, Bandys HS, Catawba, N.C.
The son of former major league closer Bryan Harvey, Hunter offers lots of projection between his stuff and frame. He is 6-foot-3, 175 pounds, with room to add strength. His arm is quick and generates a fastball that sits 89-92 mph. He reportedly hit 97 early in the spring, but has battled unseasonably cold weather and hasn’t shown that kind of velocity on a regular basis. He has a sharp breaking ball that’s inconsistent but projects to be at least an average pitch. Pitching in western North Carolina, Harvey doesn’t face great competition, so he dominates hitters with his fastball and rarely throws a changeup. He has flashed a good one and includes it in his pregame bullpen routine. Harvey has not made a college commitment and has been open about his desire to start pro ball, which could move him up draft boards.
25. Phil Bickford, rhp, Oaks Christian HS, Westlake Village, Calif.
Bickford intrigued scouts with his projectable 6-foot-4, 195-pound body and 88-92 mph fastball last summer at the Area Code Games, and his velocity has jumped this spring, as has his draft stock. He pitches comfortably in the 90-93 mph range and regularly runs his fastball up to 95-96. He has a clean arm action and a three-quarters slot that gives his fastball good life, and he commands it well to both sides, prompting some scouts to grade it as a 70 pitch on the 20-80 scale. He’s a short strider with an upright finish, and sometimes his slot drops below three-quarters, causing him to pitch uphill. Bickford’s secondary stuff lags behind his fastball. He shows glimpses of a fringe-average slider, but he needs to do a better job staying on top of it. He tinkers with a changeup but seldom uses it because he can dominate high school hitters with his fastball. Bickford pumps strikes and works quickly, and his upside could get him drafted in the back of the first round, but many scouts are more comfortable with him as a second-rounder because of his underdeveloped offspeed stuff. Bickford could be a tough sign away from Cal State Fullerton.
26. Chris Anderson, rhp
Jacksonville
Big and physical at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, Anderson should give Jacksonville its first-ever first-round pick. Like the Dolphins’ third-round product of 2012, outfielder Adam Brett Walker, Anderson is a Minnesota prep product, and he’s evolved from the team’s closer as a freshman to its Friday ace as a junior. His performance has improved significantly through his college career, as he has boosted his strikeouts, cut his walks and become more consistent across the board. Early in the season, under a heavy workload, Anderson showed scouts a front-of-the-rotation fastball, pitching downhill and touching 96 mph. He’s usually in the 90-94 mph range, holds his velocity and throws strikes. He got strikeouts early both with the fastball and slider, which flashed plus. He also throws a much-improved changeup. Anderson generates velocity more from strength than arm speed, and most scouts see him as an innings-eater in the middle of a rotation. His timing helps, as a consensus starter in a year short on college arms.
27. Billy McKinney, of
Plano (Texas) West HS
McKinney has one of the sweetest swings in the 2013 draft, and he has hit his way into the first round with a strong spring. He generates excellent bat speed from the left side of the plate, and he barrels balls with ease thanks to his hand-eye coordination and disciplined approach. The 6-foot-2, 195-pounder has strength and should grow into solid power. The rest of McKinney’s tools are fringy to average, but his arm and speed play up because he goes all-out all the time. Scouts love his makeup and are confident that he’ll provide the offense required on an outfield corner. Texas Christian holds on to many of its top recruits, but the Horned Frogs will likely lose McKinney when he goes in the second half of the first round.
28. Marco Gonzales
Gonzaga
Gonzales has grown up around the game. His father Frank was a lefthander who played eight years in the minor leagues and is the Rockies’ short-season pitching coach this season. Marco was on the mound for four consecutive state championships in high school and will rank near the top of a few career records at Gonzaga after three years. He doesn’t have a high ceiling, but at 6-foot-1 and 185 pounds he’s polished and is a good athlete who has played both ways for the Bulldogs. His fastball sits in the 88-91 mph range. It can get flat at times, but he paints the corners with above-average command. But he’s getting drafted for his changeup, the best in this year’s class. It’s a deceptive offering with fade and scouts have no problem grading it as a 70 pitch on the 20-80 scale. He also mixes in an average curveball and cutter. Scouts love Gonzales’ makeup and he could move quickly through the minor leagues. With his frame, stuff and athleticism he has earned comparisons to Jason Vargas.
29. Austin Wilson, of
Stanford
Wilson was one of the top high school prospects in the 2010 draft out of Harvard-Westlake High in Studio City, Calif., but a Stanford commitment drove him down to the Cardinals in the 12th round. He didn’t sign, and three years later still is more about potential than performance. Few players in this year’s class can match Wilson’s tools. He’s a chiseled specimen at 6-foot-5 and 245 pounds, a prototype right fielder and a solid-average runner who could play center field in a pinch. He gets great jumps on the ball and takes instinctive routes. With his cannon arm, he’ll be an above-average defender, but he still needs to prove himself with the bat. He has plenty of bat speed and strength, but has a lot of moving parts to his swing and struggles with pitch recognition. He has racked up big strikeout numbers in college, so scouts wonder if he’ll be able to tap into his above-average power. Wilson is even more of a wild card because he missed a chunk of the season with a mild stress reaction in his right elbow.
30. Aaron Judge, of
Fresno State
With a build that’s rare for baseball at 6-foot-7 and 255 pounds, Judge earns physical comparisons to NBA player Blake Griffin. He was a three-sport athlete in high school and got most of his college offers for football as a tight end. But he loved baseball and headed to Fresno State—where both his parents went—even after the Athletics drafted him in the 31st round out of high school. Judge puts on jaw-dropping batting practice displays, but some scouts worry that his power won’t translate to games. He hit four home runs as a sophomore and had eight so far this season as he got bigger in his stance and made adjustments. Judge profiles as a .250 hitter and is going to strike out a lot, which comes with the territory for tall power hitters with long arms. A team can live with the strikeouts if he hits 30-plus home runs a year. While his swing is more about strength and leverage than bat speed, he has light-tower power. Judge is a solid-average runner with an above-average arm and will be a solid defender in right field.
31. Hunter Green, lhp
Warren East HS, Bowling Green, Ky.
Green struggled in his first start of the spring in bad weather with an audience of 40 scouts, but the 6-foot-4, 180-pounder has steadily increased his velocity since, operating in the low 90s and peaking at 95 mph a month before the draft. He throws from a low three-quarters arm angle and gets good armside run on his fastball, which appears even quicker because he throws with such little effort. Green still has projection remaining. He also has the potential for three plus pitches, displaying a quality curveball when he stays on top of it as well as feel for a changeup. The Kentucky has some minor mechanical flaws that affect his control, but those should be correctable.
32. Matt Krook, lhp
St. Ignatius HS, San Francisco
Krook had as much helium as any high school prospect this spring—no surprise considering how much scouts love lefthanders with his size and stuff. While he has been inconsistent this spring, Krook has flashed enough stuff to go in the back half of the first round. At his best, the 6-foot-4, 195-pound southpaw sits 90-92 mph, touches 95 and shows flashes of a hard curveball. Krook doesn’t have a changeup and there is some effort to his delivery, so he will need refinement to project as a starter. The team that drafts him will give him that opportunity, and if he can iron those things out and improve his command, Krook could be a mid-rotation starter. He is a quiet kid and his family places an emphasis on education, so he is considered a tough sign away from his Oregon commitment.
33. Connor Jones, rhp
Great Bridge HS, Chesapeake, Va.
A pupil of the National Pitching Association and a Virginia recruit, Jones already pitches with the Cavaliers’ trademark squat delivery, and it works well for him. Jones pitches from a three-quarters arm slot and sits 90-91 mph while touching a tick higher. His biggest strength is fastball life, as he throws a heavy ball that gets above-average sink. He also throws a slider that flashes plus at times and a changeup that could be an average pitch down the road. He has a strong, compact frame at 6-foot-3, 190 pounds and is a good athlete. The biggest question with Jones is his signability. On talent, he could sneak into the first round, but Virginia commitments have proven tough signs in the past, and Jones sent all 30 clubs a letter in early May saying he intended to honor his commitment to UVa., though he added getting drafted “would be pretty cool.” He stopped short of withdrawing from the draft as another Virginia recruit, Nathan Kirby, did in 2012.
34. Tim Anderson, ss
East Central (Miss.) JC
It’s a banner year for Mississippi junior colleges, and Anderson has a chance to become the highest-drafted such player in a June draft. A Tuscaloosa, Ala., native, Anderson missed much of his high school baseball career due to basketball, first because of knee injuries as a sophomore, then because of a state title run as a junior that overlapped much of baseball season. He focused on baseball in junior college and hit .328 with five home runs in the Jayhawk League last summer. He has followed up by showing solid power this spring to go with his other prodigious tools. Anderson stands out in a draft class light on middle infielders. Scouts aren’t sold that he’ll stick at shortstop thanks to average arm strength. He has middle-infield actions and needs repetition at the pro level to see where he’ll stick. His athleticism and plus-plus speed would play in center field. Some scouts see power in Anderson’s bat and consider him a potential Brandon Phillips, while others see him as a faster version of Orlando Hudson. Either way, Anderson will be the first or second middle infielder picked and won’t be following through on his commitment to Alabama-Birmingham.
35. Kyle Serrano, rhp
Farragut (Tenn.) HS
Serrano’s father Dave is the head coach at Tennessee and previously was head coach at Cal State Fullerton and UC Irvine, so Kyle has been exposed to the game at a high level from a young age, such as traveling with USA Baseball College National Teams when his father has been on the staff. That experience, plus his father’s long career as a pitching coach, help give the 6-foot-2, 195-pounder an advanced approach. Serrano missed much of last spring with a cracked rib but pitched on the summer showcase circuit, showing good control for a prep to go with solid stuff. This spring, his stuff has gone from solid to spectacular at times, with his fastball at times sitting anywhere from 90-91 mph to 92-94. Serrano’s father has a reputation for teaching the changeup, and Kyle has flashed a plus change, though it was better last year. His curveball, however, has taken a step forward and at times is above-average, with plus potential. Serrano has a compact, easy delivery with minimal wasted effort. He offers little projection but has now stuff, with the potential for three plus pitches. Serrano naturally is a Tennessee recruit, and it’s hard to imagine his father not bringing him in to help the Volunteers.
36. Bobby Wahl, rhp
Mississippi
A northern Virginia product, Wahl turned down reported $1 million offers in the 2010 draft to attend Mississippi. He established himself as the staff ace the last two seasons, and was the closer for USA Baseball’s college national team last summer. Wahl pitches with a 90-94 mph fastball at his best as a starter and hit 97 last summer, and scouts have seen flashes of a plus slider and solid-average changeup with late action. He has battled blister problems all spring and had arm soreness last summer that prompted Team USA to avoid using him on back-to-back nights. His slider has backed up this spring, in part due to the blisters, while his fastball slipped to the 89-92 mph range with an occasional 94. Some scouts blame his diminished velocity on an over-reliance on the slider. Still, Wahl has dominated, going 9-0, 1.21 through 12 starts while limiting opponents to a .178 average. Scouts laud his improved feel and toughness. His competitiveness and pitching savvy have served him well, and if his stuff bounces back, he could be one of the best college starters in this class.
37. Ryan Eades, rhp
Louisiana State
Eades doesn’t pitch Fridays like most potential college first-round picks, but that’s more a testament to sophomore righthander Aaron Nola, a potential top 10 pick in 2014. Scouts are watching to see if Eades loses steam down the stretch as he did last season, and they’ve been watching Eades for a while. He was hitting 94 mph as a 16-year-old, then injured his shoulder when he was a prep junior. He had labrum surgery and missed his senior season but has been healthy all three years at Louisiana State. He has an athletic 6-foot-3, 198-pound frame and looks the part of a frontline starter, running his four-seamer up to 90-95 mph and adding a two-seamer this year to get more early-count contact. He’s honed his breaking ball into a power curveball that scrapes the low 80s, and has improved his changeup under the tutelage of pitching coach Alan Dunn, a longtime pro pitching coach. Eades grades out better than he’s performed, though he has improved his strikeout rate from 6.0 strikeouts per nine innings to 8 K/9 IP as a junior. Eades tends to miss armside and high when he leaks out on his front side or gets fatigued, but his strong work ethic has reduced that in 2013. He slots into the 20-40 range on most teams’ draft boards but could go higher with a strong finish.
38. Oscar Mercado, ss
Gaither HS, Tampa
Born in Colombia, Mercado and his family moved to the U.S. when he was 8 years old. Six years later he was a varsity starter. Mercado had a better 2012 than he did in 2013. In fact, he had a better 2010, his freshman year at Gaither High in Tampa, when he hit .310 as he stepped in as a starter. Still growing at 6-foot-2, 175 pounds, Mercado struggled under the microscope of his draft season, hitting just .286 with five extra-base hits. Gaither went just 11-12 and failed to make the playoffs, ending Mercado’s season in late April. He was expected to get an invitation to Florida’s heavily-scouted state all-star game in Sebring at the end of May, which will be his last chance to make positive impression for scouts. He’ll try to remind them of his bat last year, when he hit .370 for Gaither. At his best he shows a mechanically sound swing and bat control and gap power. Mercado likely will never hit for power, but he does play the small game well. He’s an average runner with outstanding instincts on the bases, as well as in the field. He’s a smooth, fluid defender whose glove will give him a chance to survive as a pro while his bat develops and strength catches up. He has good hands and footwork and a plus arm, as well as the ability to make accurate throws from different angles. Mercado’s commitment to Florida State and poor spring could make it tough to figure out his signability.
39. Hunter Dozier, ss/3b
Stephen F. Austin State
Stephen F. Austin produced just one player selected above the 13th round in the first 48 drafts, and now Dozier should easily surpass Bryson Myles (sixth round, 2011) as the highest pick in school history. Scouts describe him as a Jeff Kent-style player in a Drew Stubbs body. Dozier has adjusted his approach this spring, abandoning a crouch and standing more upright, allowing him to use his hands better in his swing. He’s also doing a better job of managing the strike zone and with a month to go before the draft, he was hitting .404 and ranked fourth in NCAA Division I in doubles (22), homers (14) and slugging (.770). Dozier carries a lot of strength in his 6-foot-4, 220-pound frame, and the righty slugger has exceptional power to the opposite field. He could hit 20-25 homers annually in the big leagues. Dozier also moves well for his size and may be able to stay at shortstop for a while, though he’ll lack the quickness to play there in the big leagues. He has close to average speed and moves well enough to be an asset at third base and possibly at second. His arm isn’t in question, as he showed a 91-93 mph fastball in relief appearances a year ago.
40. Cord Sandberg, of
Manatee HS, Bradenton, Fla.
Sandberg’s timing is excellent. He’s an athlete with size and power potential in a draft class where such players are in short supply. Crosscheckers who have seen both players compare Sandberg to Georgia prep outfielder Austin Meadows physically, and many of Sandberg’s tools are on par with those of Meadows, who entered the year as the No. 1 prep player in the country. Sandberg has a quarterback’s build at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, and he committed to Mississippi State for football after throwing for 2,674 yards and 35 touchdowns last season. The football commitment could complicate signability for Sandberg, but he’s believed to want to play pro baseball. His father Chuck played at Florida and also played minor league baseball in the Red Sox system, though he also was a prep football coach for more than 20 years. Sandberg’s two-sport history has curtailed his baseball experience, and it shows in his instincts and defense. He profiles best in left field but has a chance to stick in center if he learns better reads and jumps to go with his average speed. Sandberg shows plenty of strength and raw power as well as bat speed, and scouts credit him for making strides with his hitting approach this spring. He’s expected to go out in the second or third round.
41. Aaron Blair, rhp
Marshall
Blair jumps off the page when you look at Marshall’s roster, if only because he hails from Las Vegas, 2,000 miles from Huntington, W.Va. He also stands out with a 6-foot-5, 220-pound frame and a fastball that ranges from 88-95 mph with heavy life. He works with a plus changeup that has good fading action and throws a curveball and slider, both of which are inconsistent but could be average pitches. Given his three-quarters arm slot, Blair might be best suited moving forward with the slider. Scouts also love his bulldog mentality on the mound. He was 5-4, 2.36 in 11 starts for the Thundering Herd with 78 strikeouts and 26 walks in 72 innings. Opponents were hitting just .176 against him and he had surrendered only one home run. He is unlikely to get past the second round.
42. Alex Balog, rhp
San Francisco
Balog generated buzz in the fall with his sturdy, 6-foot-5, 210-pound build and a fastball that touched 96 mph. He got out of the gate slowly this spring but has heated up as the season went on and was climbing draft boards as he pitched with more confidence and an aggressive demeanor. In addition to his durable frame, Balog shows the potential for three above-average pitches. His fastball sits in the 92-95 mph range with heavy life, and he holds his velocity deep into games. He throws both an 82-84 mph slider and a power curveball. Balog doesn’t use his changeup much now, but it should be serviceable. He is a good athlete who also played four years of water polo in high school in San Jose.
43. Alex Gonzalez, rhp
Oral Roberts
The best Oral Roberts pitching prospect since No. 1 overall pick Mike Moore in 1981, Gonzalez steadily has improved since the Orioles made him an 11th-round pick out of a Florida high school three years ago. He doesn’t garner a lot of national attention pitching for the Golden Eagles, but he could sneak into the first round and has a realistic ceiling of a No. 3 starter in the big leagues. The 6-foot-3, 200-pounder usually deals at 90-94 mph with his fastball, and batters can’t square it up because he throws it with natural cut and sink to both sides of the plate. His true slider, which runs as hot as 87 mph, is one of the best in the draft and gives him a second swing-and-miss offering. He’s making progress with a changeup, and he can mix in an occasional curveball as a show-me pitch. Gonzalez pounds the strike zone, has a sound delivery and exhibits good mound presence.
44. Devin Williams, rhp
Hazelwood (Mo.) West HS
Scouts noted Williams’ projectable frame at last summer’s USA Baseball Breakthrough Series, where the 6-foot-3, 172-pounder worked at 85-88 mph from a loose, easy delivery. He has reached his fastball velocity sooner than anticipated, jumping to 91-93 mph last fall at the World Wood Bat Association World Championships and often showing the same heat this spring. He usually pitches at 88-92 mph with his two-seam fastball and can approach 95 with his four-seamer. Though Williams is inconsistent with his mechanics and his stuff, when he’s at his best he stays closed and direct with his delivery and exhibits feel for three pitches. His breaking ball can get slurvy but also can be a low-80s slider at the knees, and his fading, sinking changeup can throw hitters off balance. He’s athletic and his arm works well. A Missouri recruit, Williams has looked like a first-round pick at times. While there’s speculation that the Cardinals could take the suburban St. Louis product at No. 28, he fits better in the second round.
45. Andrew Thurman, rhp
UC Irvine
Thurman had success with fringe-average fastball velocity as a sophomore, when he went 8-3, 2.66 and threw a no-hitter against Long Beach State, and his velocity spiked this spring, giving him a strong chance to be UCI’s highest-drafted player since 1974, when Jeff Malinoff (now a national crosschecker for the Angels) went in the second round. Thurman has held his 90-93 mph fastball velocity deep into games and routinely topped out at 95. He pounds the strike zone but needs to hone his command because he has a tendency to pitch up in the zone. His best secondary pitch is an average changeup that he is comfortable throwing to righties as well as lefties. The primary knock against Thurman is his lack of a power breaking ball. His below-average curveball is serviceable at best, and he picked up a short slider in the Cape Cod League last summer. That pitch flashes fringe-average when it’s on, but he tends to yank it out of the zone at times. Scouts and coaches rave about his makeup and work ethic.
46. Tom Windle, lhp
Minnesota
After spending most of his first two college seasons in the bullpen, Windle starred as a starter in the Cape Cod League last summer and has done so again this spring, tossing the first nine-inning no-hitter in Minnesota’s storied history against Western Michigan on March 8. He has a strong 6-foot-4, 215-pound frame and a pair of plus pitches in his fastball and slider. He usually works at 90-94 mph with his heater, delivering it on a steep downward plane. His slider is an out pitch in the mid-80s, and he can bury it on the hands of lefties or the back foot of righties. Scouts don’t love Windle’s delivery, which features some stiffness and recoil, and some wonder if he has the third pitch, athleticism and command to be a big league starter. He has improved his arm speed with his changeup and his ability to locate his pitches this year. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter, or of a closer if he winds up in the bullpen. A 28th-round pick of the White Sox out of a Minnesota high school three years ago, Windle has a twin brother Sam who plays hockey at Bemidji State (Minn.).
47. Corey Knebel, rhp
Texas
Like Huston Street before him, Knebel went from an unheralded Texas high schooler to an instant star with the Longhorns. He ranked second in NCAA Division I with 19 saves as a freshman in 2011 and has been one of college baseball’s top closers for three years. Compared to Street, the 6-foot-4, 205-pound Knebel is more physical and has more power to his pitches. His fastball ranges from 91-98 mph, and when he stays on top of it, he has a hard curveball with depth that can reach the low 80s. He has deception in his delivery that makes it tough to pick up his pitches but doesn’t prevent him from throwing strikes. Knebel has the frame and enough feel for a changeup for a pro team to consider using him in the rotation, a role he filled for three starts at the end of 2012. With his two power pitches and his competitive makeup, but he has big league closer upside and could reach that ceiling quickly. Knebel has been suspended twice this spring in the midst of a disappointing season for Texas, once for a confrontation with a coach and once for reportedly substituting his urine for a teammate’s drug test. Neither incident is expected to affect his draft status.
48. Trey Masek, rhp
Texas Tech
Primarily a reliever as a sophomore, Masek emerged as one of the best righthanded starting pitching prospects in the Cape Cod League last summer. He carried that momentum over to the start of this season, when he allowed just one earned run and 21 hits in his first 40 innings. He hasn’t been as sharp since a bout with rotator-cuff tendinitis sidelined him for a month. Masek throws strikes with four offerings, working primarily off an 89-93 mph fastball that reaches 95 and a curveball with some sharpness to it. He also has a short cutter/slider and a changeup. New Texas Tech pitching coach Ray Hayward, the 10th overall pick in 1983 and a former big leaguer, has done a nice job of helping him smooth out his delivery, which in turn has improved his command. Masek’s relatively small stature (6-foot-1, 195 pounds) and monthlong layoff do lead to some concerns about his durability, though he still figures to go in the second round.
49. Andrew Mitchell, rhp
Texas Christian
Texas Christian planned on using Mitchell as its closer this year, but his first save situation didn’t come until the fourth week of the season. The struggling Horned Frogs moved him back into their rotation, where he spent much of his first two seasons, in late March. Scouts still are uncertain of his future role, but they don’t quibble with his fastball and curveball. His heater sits at 90-94 mph when he starts and can reach 98 when he relieves. He has the best curveball among college prospects this year, a sharp 80-81 mph bender that can be unhittable. At 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, Mitchell has the frame for starting. But his low three-quarters angle is more suited for the bullpen, and he may not have enough consistency with his changeup and his command (which has regressed this spring) to stick in a big league rotation. His stuff plays up and he’s more aggressive as a reliever, and he could make an impact as a closer in the majors.
50. Jason Hursh, rhp
Oklahoma State
The Pirates failed to sign four high school arms in 2010 who should go in the top five rounds of the 2013 draft. Hursh, a sixth-rounder out of a Texas high school, is the best prospect of that group, which also includes Austin Kubitza (seventh round, now at Rice), Dace Kime (eighth round, Louisville) and Kent Emanuel (19th, North Carolina). Hursh pitched just 30 innings as a freshman in 2011 and missed last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. His velocity returned last summer, when he hit 103 mph according to the (notoriously juiced) scoreboard at the National Baseball Congress World Series. He has continued to light up radar guns as a redshirt sophomore, throwing 92-98 mph and sitting in mid-90s with little effort. Add in heavy life and late tail on his fastball, and it’s one of the most devastating pitches in the draft. Hursh still is developing feel for his secondary pitches, as he flashes an average slider and a decent changeup. He can live off his fastball, but hitters will sit on it until he develops a reliable No. 2 offering. There are durability concerns due to his 6-foot-1, 197-pound frame and his medical history, though he has improved his delivery and arm action since getting hurt.
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