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KLaw's First Mock Draft

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Jaypers

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
48,898
1,378
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First MLB mock draft of 2013
The Astros are now considering a few options for No. 1 overall pick

We're still three weeks away from the draft, which means everything here is preliminary, and based a lot on industry conjecture rather than on firm preference lists from each team.

Most scouting departments won't set up the war room until a week or so before draft day, and we still have college conference tournaments next week and a lot of top prep players still in the playoffs, like Matt Krook throwing Thursday night.

With that caveat in mind, here is my best projection for the top 33 picks in the draft -- the formal first round, plus the six compensatory picks teams received for losing free agents who received qualifying offers this offseason.

(For a complete look at my ranking of the top 100 draft prospects, click here.)


1Jonathan GrayPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 239School: Oklahoma
Analysis: The industry thinking is that the Astros will try to cut a deal with Gray for less than it would cost to sign Mark Appel, then applying the savings to later picks where they might sign players to bonuses that exceed MLB's recommendations.

There is one hot rumor this week that has the Astros on UNC third baseman Colin Moran, one of the top statistical performers in this draft and someone likely to rate at or near the top of Houston's internal analytics.

Besides Gray and Moran, Mark Appel and perhaps Kris Bryant all seem to be in consideration, and maybe (but probably not) Clint Frazier. If last year is any guide, the Astros won't make a final decision until a few hours or even minutes before the pick.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO
2Mark AppelPOS: RHPHT: 6-5WT: 215School: Stanford
Analysis: This is Appel or Gray, assuming one of them goes first, with Appel the preference. The Cubs are in the catbird seat in this draft -- they don't have to pay the premium that comes with picking first overall but are guaranteed to get one of the two huge arms in the class.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO
3Kris BryantPOS: 3B/OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 215School: San Diego
Analysis: I've only heard them on bats so far, including Bryant, Dominic Smith and Austin Meadows. However, if Gray ends up here, I think the Rockies would take him.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO
4Kohl StewartPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 190School: St. Pius X (Houston)
Analysis: They've been very heavy on Stewart over his last few outings, and he's an ideal fit for a system that needs high-upside pitchers, with Stewart offering the athleticism the Twins have always favored in position players.

There is a persistent rumor that the Twins will cut a deal with prep catcher Reese McGuire for less than MLB's recommended bonus, which would allow them to apply those savings later in the draft. But Stewart is clearly the better choice and appears to be higher on their internal board, below only the three players who I project to go in the top three.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO
5Colin MoranPOS: 3BHT: 6-3WT: 215School: North Carolina
Analysis: I've heard that Moran will fall no farther than here at No. 5, and Cleveland will take Bryant if Moran is gone. Clint Frazier could be a backup plan at this spot, the highest I've heard him going other than Houston.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO
6Braden ShipleyPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 190School: Nevada
Analysis: Shipley and New Mexico's DJ Peterson are the two most frequent names I'm hearing about with this pick. Peterson would be the first college position player that the Marlins drafted with their first selection since Mark Kotsay in 1996. Ownership seems to be mandating a college player for the first pick.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO
7Ryne StanekPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 190School: Arkansas
Analysis: Stanek came into the year as a top-five pick, struggled with command, but has been showing major velocity of late and holding it deep into games. There's a thought that the Sox are lurking on him and Sean Manaea, since Moran and Bryant will likely be gone and Clint Frazier might be too risky for them at No. 7. If they drafted a little lower, they might consider Alex Gonzalez as well.

SCOUTING REPORT
8Sean ManaeaPOS: LHPHT: 6-5WT: 235School: Indiana State
Analysis: Hearing the Royals on college arms, including Manaea and Shipley, but oddly enough not Stanek, whom they've barely scouted. Their main non-pitching target seems to be Austin Meadows.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO
9DJ PetersonPOS: 3B/1BB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 205School: New Mexico
Analysis: This is a compensation pick for failing to sign Mark Appel, who they took at No. 8 overall a year ago. This pick is unprotected, which means that if they fail to sign the guy they take here, they won't get a comp pick next year.

They are also linked to Reese McGuire (whom GM Neal Huntington has seen more than once), Austin Meadows and Trey Ball.

SCOUTING REPORT
10Reese McGuirePOS: CB/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 190School: Kentwood HS (Kent, Wash.)
Analysis: I've heard Ball or Austin Meadows here. I would expect them to be opportunistic on any player who was supposed to go higher than this and shows up here instead, which could mean Clint Frazier.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO
11Dominic SmithPOS: 1BB/T: L/LHT: 6-0WT: 195School: Serra HS (Gardena, Calif.)
Analysis: This could also be Peterson, Aaron Judge, or longshots Hunter Renfroe or Austin Wilson. They were also among the teams scouting Frazier on Monday.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO
12Austin MeadowsPOS: OFB/T: L/LHT: 6-3WT: 200School: Grayson (Ga.) HS
Analysis: They originally thought they'd have a shot at Moran, but that seems impossible. Peterson and Stanek are both considerations if they get here, with Reese McGuire getting play as the local kid.

I'd think they would be over the moon getting Meadows here. No matter how I map the scenarios, either Meadows or Peterson ends up here.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO
13Clint FrazierPOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 190School: Loganville (Ga.) HS
Analysis: Frazier and Meadows getting this far seems odd to me, but there's a flight to safety in the top 10, with teams expressing stronger preferences for college kids over prep. That could certainly change in the next three weeks after scouting departments get into their draft rooms.

The Padres would also consider Hunter Renfroe or might cut a deal with a prep arm, an approach that worked very well for them last year when they nabbed prep lefty Max Fried at No. 7 overall.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO
14Trey BallPOS: LHP/OFHT: 6-6WT: 180School: New Castle (Ind.) HS
Analysis: I've also heard them here with Aaron Judge and Hunter Renfroe. I actually prefer Ball to Peterson -- who I have them taking at No. 9 -- but Peterson won't get past 12.

SCOUTING REPORT
15Hunter RenfroePOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 216School: Mississippi State
Analysis: Alex Gonzalez is one of the other names here, although it sounds like they covet Renfroe.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO
16J.P. CrawfordPOS: SSB/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 175School: Lakewood (Calif.) HS
Analysis: They're getting linked to every toolsy prep player who might be here, including Travis Demerritte, Devin Williams and JC shortstop Tim Anderson.

SCOUTING REPORT
17Chris AndersonPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 225School: Jacksonville
Analysis: I've also heard them linked to Gonzaga lefty Marco Gonzales, although this seems a little early for him.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO
18Matt KrookPOS: LHPHT: 6-2WT: 190School: St. Ignatius Prep (Hillsborough, Calif.)
Analysis: I know you're shocked, but the Dodgers are linked to a lot of prep arms, including Krook, Hunter Harvey and Devin Williams.

SCOUTING REPORT
19Alex GonzalezPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 200School: Oral Roberts
Analysis: They're also one of several teams seen as strong candidates for prep shortstop Travis Demerritte, who is likely to go off the board before their next pick. Local kid Devin Williams will be a sentimental favorite among fans, I'm sure.

SCOUTING REPORT
20Kyle SerranoPOS: RHPHT: 6-0WT: 185School: Farragut (Tenn.) HS
Analysis: One very odd name I heard here is Florida right-hander Jonathan Crawford, who doesn't seem to be getting much play in the first round as there's a growing consensus that he's a reliever in the long run. I've also heard Stanek here if he slides.

SCOUTING REPORT
21Nick CiuffoPOS: CB/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 200School: Lexington (S.C.) HS
Analysis: I've heard Tampa Bay on catching in general but only Ciuffo would fit the bill in this spot. Devin Williams is also high on their list.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO
22Devin WilliamsPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 172School: Hazelwood West HS (Hazelwood, Mo.)
Analysis: He could go anywhere in the teens and I doubt he gets past this four-team gauntlet of clubs starting with this pick. I've also heard them a little on New Jersey prep lefty Rob Kaminsky and on Fresno State outfielder Aaron Judge.

SCOUTING REPORT
23Travis DemerittePOS: SSB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 195School: Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, Ga.)
Analysis: I've heard Demerritte as high as 16 but I think he goes in the 20s, where Texas is widely seen to be all over him.

SCOUTING REPORT
24Hunter HarveyPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 175School: Bandys HS (Catawba, N.C.)
Analysis: I've heard them on a lot of prep arms, including Harvey and prep southpaw Rob Kaminsky.

SCOUTING REPORT
25Eric JagieloPOS: RHPB/T: L/RHT: 6-3WT: 215School: Notre Dame
Analysis: San Franciso's front office is notoriously tight-lipped, and rumors here are all over the board, including pretty much everyone linked to Oakland, too.

SCOUTING REPORT
26Austin WilsonPOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 245School: Stanford
Analysis: They've scouted Wilson heavily since he came back from a stress reaction above his elbow. They've been linked to a ton of prep players but have the luxury of playing the board a little with two more picks at 32 and 33.

SCOUTING REPORT
27Billy McKinneyPOS: OFB/T: L/LHT: 6-2WT: 195School: Plano (Texas) West HS
Analysis: Could be this year's Jesse Winker for them, another bat-only prep outfielder who falls to them and hits the ground running in pro ball.

SCOUTING REPORT
28Aaron JudgePOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-7WT: 255School: Fresno State
Analysis: I've heard Judge all over the map, from teams in the 7-to-15 range showing some interest to teams in the 20s figuring he doesn't get this far.

(Note: This pick is compensation for Kyle Lohse signing with the Brewers.)

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO
29Marco GonzalesPOS: LHPHT: 6-1WT: 185School: Gonzaga
Analysis: Hard to imagine the Rays passing on a consistent performer like this, and they're known to like his feel for pitching.

(Note: This pick is compensation for B.J. Upton signing with the Braves.)

SCOUTING REPORT
30Rob KaminskyPOS: LHPHT: 6-0WT: 190School: St. Joseph HS (Montvale, N.J.)
Analysis: I'm hearing Texas primarily on high school players, more upside guys than polished players, although Kaminsky fits into the latter category and they're among the teams in the 20s (along with Oakland and the Yankees) who've scouted him hard down the stretch.

My own speculation here would have them on Georgia prep outfielder Josh Hart if they're looking at raw, slightly toolsier prep kids. I've also heard Tampa high school shortstop Oscar Mercado, although I have to think that's more second-round interest.

(Note: This pick is compensation for Josh Hamilton signing with the Angels.)

SCOUTING REPORT
31Tim AndersonPOS: SSB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 180School: East Central CC
Analysis: I've also heard them on Andrew Knapp, the Cal catcher who'd be a reach here but fits better in the early second round.

(Note: This pick is compensation for Michael Bourn signing with the Indians.)

SCOUTING REPORT
32Jon DenneyPOS: CB/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 205School: Yukon (Okla.) HS
Analysis: Denney was a possible top-10 pick in early February but had a rough spring on offense and defense. That may make him a huge bargain at this point in the draft, with the Yankees also linked to him often of late.

(Note: This pick is compensation for Nick Swisher signing with the Indians.)

SCOUTING REPORT
33Dustin PetersonPOS: SSB/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 180School: Gilbert (Ariz.) HS
Analysis: Peterson could go a little higher than this, but this is his first likely landing spot. The Yankees seem to be on a number of prep players here, although I do get the sense they'd love one good college arm in the three selections if such a beast exists -- perhaps Andrew Thurman, whom I rate as a first-rounder but who has scuffled a little the last two weeks.

(Note: This pick is compensation for Rafael Soriano signing with the Nationals.)
 

bear0555

Active member
Aug 27, 2008
1,724
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I thought dj peterson is more of a 2nd rounder but is getting a lot of high 1st round buzz lately.
 

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