Do players tend to see a large ebay sales spike when elected to the hall of fame?

RogerMarisCollector61 · Jun 10, 2013

I haven't really payed attention to this, but am curious how much sales tend to rise the week after a player is elected to the hall of fame. Is it significant enough to be worth waiting a bit to sell something of someone? Thanks

jfras7777 · Jun 10, 2013

From what I've noticed that mostly rookie, auto, and cards from a players primary team make a slight raise in prices when a player is elected into the hall of fame

Waxov · Jun 10, 2013

It should make a big difference, who are you thinking of thats coming up.. KGJ?

D-Lite · Jun 10, 2013

Gotta be one or more of:
Maddux
Glavine
Thomas
Mussina
Kent

or
Biggio
Piazza
Bagwell

sick ballot this year

smapdi · Jun 10, 2013

They don't go up more than a couple points in general on guys elected in their first year since they're usually pretty obvious and election is priced in. They move a little easier since there would be a couple more type collectors who would go after them, but it doesn't seem to put much upward pressure on prices. Especially since we're now entering a time where new HOF electees came up during the peak years of overproduction (Jesus, that makes me feel old). There will always be enough Mike Mussina and Frank Thomas RCs to go around. Bets are off for BGS 10s, etc, though, and there seem to be lots of people who collect GU and autographs of HOFers, so those might move if there is very little such material around.

On guys who have been around a while, such as Lee Smith, election might bump his RC a bit but nothing significant (his cards might go from $1 to $2).

But if you wake up one morning next winter and see that Moises Alou's .303/332/1287 got him there, scour ebay immediately.

Talk about feeling old, every year I look at the ballot and can't believe there are guys on there who have been retired for 5 years already. Esteban Loiaza? Weren't they just talking about moving him to the pen? Didn't I just see Ray Durham come up with another sweet Web Gem? I've been keeping Dmitri Young on my fantasy team all this time and he hasn't played since 2008? HIDEO FREAKING NOMO hung them up during the Bush administration?

DaClyde · Jun 10, 2013

It depends 100% on the popularity of the player and the cards in question. I think the autos and multiple-GU cards seem to be the only cards that see any bump anymore. I imagine Dawson cards saw a bump, but I doubt much happened with Jim Rice. And there was likely no movement at all for the guys like Eckersley, Larkin, Sutter, Gossage, Blyleven and Santo.

mcgoo2 · Jun 10, 2013

As has been said, bumps are usually minimal. The stat lines aren't going to change and HOF results are usually predictable enough for all that to be already priced in.

predatorkj · Jun 10, 2013

Ok...well what if a guy is considered a HOF possibility and he never makes it, do his cards start to dip a little?

ASTROBURN · Jun 10, 2013

I think collector interest in the rookie cards may climb a little, but I would not expect my Entire collection of Bagwells to go up in value when he gets in.

Hendersonfan · Jun 10, 2013

I feel Rickey always sold somewhat high, and that hasn't changed. Only thing that changed is sellers starting prices have skyrocketed. Most go unsold.

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RogerMarisCollector61 · Jun 10, 2013

predatorkj said:
Ok...well what if a guy is considered a HOF possibility and he never makes it, do his cards start to dip a little?

Good question

RogerMarisCollector61 · Jun 10, 2013

ASTROBURN said:
I think collector interest in the rookie cards may climb a little, but I would not expect my Entire collection of Bagwells to go up in value when he gets in.

The only argument against bagwell is that he MIGHT have used steroids, even though there is no evidence to support this. I think it's stupid to stereotype him just because he was a power hitting first baseman. And though he did gain a lot of muscle over the course of his career, the same can be said for pujols and nobody says anything about pujols. He is one of the best and most underrated first basemen of all time.

ASTROBURN · Jun 10, 2013

predatorkj said:
Ok...well what if a guy is considered a HOF possibility and he never makes it, do his cards start to dip a little?

Well, Bagwell was eligible last year, and his cards didnt dip. I assume a players card prices are just reflected by what his collectors will pay for the cards, just like non hof players.

Waxov · Jun 10, 2013

I think best case scenario for a spike would be a Barry Larkin type guy. A player who was the only (living at least) guy to go in that year, giving him a ton of publicity. The fact that some didn't think he would get elected (never led an offensive category) also adds value Imo as perhaps his cards in the years prior didn't slowly start to up in price due to collector preparation.

In the coming years there are a lot of big names on deck with huge power numbers and bigger fan bases. I think there will be less under the radar guys and still the same problem of their rookie cards being junk wax.

You could try to flip a Belle, Biggio, or Martinez but to be profitable you would probably need to be 85-95ish% sure they're going to get in soon.

DaClyde · Jun 10, 2013

predatorkj said:
Ok...well what if a guy is considered a HOF possibility and he never makes it, do his cards start to dip a little?

Ask collectors of Will Clark, Jose Canseco and Juan Gonzalez.

RStadlerASU22 · Jun 10, 2013

DaClyde said:
Ask collectors of Will Clark, Jose Canseco and Juan Gonzalez.

Clark went up because he didn't make the Hall

Ryan

mcgoo2 · Jun 10, 2013

DaClyde said:
Ask collectors of Will Clark, Jose Canseco and Juan Gonzalez.

To be fair, Canseco and Gonzalez are known steroid users and aren't really HOF worthy anyways.

Clark has an extreme amount of collectors compared to career success. Up until the last couple years ago, he did not have many cards in the market. The card companies are starting to take care of that now with all these autos but his prices still reflect how big his fan base is IMO.

There's always going to be extenuating circumstances like the above but all things created equal, I don't think HOF influences cards much, one way or another, unless it's completely unexpected. I'm not sure since I don't collect it but I'd guess values of coach/ump memorabilia changes more since they don't get as much exposure to begin with.

predatorkj · Jun 10, 2013

As far as Bagwell, over the last few years I have seen what I feel was a slight uptick for some of his autos and gu stuff. I used to be able to purchase autos of his numbered to /10 for like $30. Try doing that now.

As for Clark and Canseco and Juan Gonzalez...Canseco most likely had a slew of collectors from the get go. First ever 40/40, Latino, and an epic ego made a lot of kids think he was the **** and those kids turned into adults with money. As for Clark, I can see him being very popular but nothing like his prices indicate. Same with Juan. In fact Juan is the biggest mystery because despite his Latino heritage, he never seemed that big of a name. In fact other than this board, I've never met another Juan collector.

I'd say I believe what some of you have said that there are just a few really deep pocketed collectors driving some of these prices through the roof. Who can logically say that Clark prices even remotely make sense?

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