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What's an autograph really worth?

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predatorkj

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
11,871
2
Ok, me and a buddy of mine have been debating this one for a few days and I figured I'd just get the board's general opinion on the subject. I know this thread might belong better in the IP and TTM forum but that place gets very little attention. So cut me a little slack. And a disclaimer, this is not a thread debating the merits of those who do IP autos and then sell. I have my own thoughts on that as many of you do. But that isn't what this is about. And yes, it's a long read.

So, we were discussing various athletes we have gotten autos from over the years whether it be paid or for free. The list is pretty staggering but he sells some of his stuff while I don't. He keeps HOF'ers and Heisman winners and sells the rest, including doubles of the HOF'ers. So, in selling some of his autos, he like many of you with certain cards and brands/products, has to be careful with what he gets signed so that he can expect a decent ROI. Believe it or not, if your doing even a free autograph signing, it costs money for the item, gas(which these things always seem to be way on the other side of town every time), and time off of work. It affects someone like me who doesn't sell more but it also affects people who do sell. He goes after football autos mostly but does other sports too. So we got into a debate because he does full size helmets and I usually do minis. Even on HOF'ers. I know this isn't the football boards but this train of thought could count for any sport. Think instead of baseballs or cards, you got bats or jersey's signed.

I told him to chill on the full size stuff because it will take up way too much room. It's one of the reasons I quit doing basketballs and footballs because even if you are getting really great players, they start taking up too much room, especially if you want to display them in cubes. So normally, if I get a basketball signed or a football signed by just one player, they are either one of my favorite players or someone who is a really big name. Otherwise, I'll do a team ball and fit as many autos as I can on it. Those items are way too big to do every player you come across on, even run of the mill HOF'ers. So I told him he should start doing more minis, especially since he was going to keep these autos, lest he run out of room. He refused saying that with the prices he has had to pay for some players(like Joe Montana and Dan Marino), there is no way on earth he'd do a mini. His plans are to pass them along to his son and if he chooses to sell, so be it. But he brought up a good point about the mini helmets not selling very well. I mean, if you go get Montana or Marino at a large show, you're paying well over a $100 for the auto and maybe an extra $50 for a HOF inscription. If you wanted to get it authenticated at the show, it's usually pretty cheap(I think Tristar charges like $7 or $8), but if you went and got it done at a later date, it would certainly cost more. That's not including the price of admission, gas to go to the show, and the price of the helmet or item. Hell...you've easily spent $50 by the time you walk into the show. And you're not getting guys like Marino or Montana for free. Not normally. And if you do, it's rare you'll get a HOF inscription. Doesn't mean it hasn't happened. Just means it's far from normal.

So you take a player who hardly signs for free and when he does he normally doesn't inscribe HOF, you take the fact that you mostly have to pay way over a bill for his auto even on a mini helmet, and the cost of the item and gas and attendance and possibly authentication, and add all those factors up. Yet I'm seeing auto'd mini helmets of both Marino and Montana selling consistently in the $60-$70 range with many much lower and only a few even grazing $100. Now I'm all for paying the lowest I can for items. My take is I can get stuff all day long of any player, if you want me to buy from you, offer me a deal that sets you apart and gives me reason to buy from you. But on the other hand, I realize there are certain athletes that are not going to do free IP events and you will in fact have to pay for their auto. And if they are one of the greats of the game, you'll end up paying way more than you can even sell it for. A ridiculous amount more. Now yes, I understand anyone going to a show hoping to pay for an auto and trying to sell it for a profit without having had some sort of dealer's discount on the auto price is a fool. I think we all know that.

My point is, even at a dealer discount, $60-$70 isn't going to cover your costs at all. Not even close. I understand it's just scribble on a miniature helmet. I also realize and have personally tried my hand, at figuring out exactly what a player's auto is worth. I've done it with Bagwell. You kind of figure this out by looking at different items he signed and what they go for and you can see a little bit of order to the chaos. You start subtracting the cost of the item and possibly a little over that for other incurred expenses and you can start to see the pattern. Prices change as the item progress in premium nature. A picture will usually sell for less than a ball(8x10) and a ball will usually sell for less than a bat and a bat will usually sell for less than a jersey and so on. Doing this many times over, you can get the idea. But what of these athletes who hardly sign for free and if you're getting their auto, it's going to cost you more than it's worth damn near every time? To me, this makes no sense for big names that are incredibly hard to get. There are certain athletes I wouldn't pay for (namely any of the Texans or Astros) simply because they do and have done multiple free signings over the last 5 years. And by multiple I mean multiple. In fact anyone paying what Tristar charges for Matt Schuab, Arian Foster, or J.J. Watt has really missed the boat. A boat that continues to come back.

So my question is, given all of this, should people be selling autographs and allowing them to go for way less than a person could reasonably obtain them? It doesn't matter the sport as this can happen with any sport on any item. Un-authenticated IP autos and especially signed base cards tend to always dwell low on the money side but I'm seeing this even with PSA/DNA certified stuff. And not just on cards or 8x10's, which you will normally see at signings. And if it is the media the autograph is on that affects the price, should big shows make allowances for these and have an even lower price for said items? They have a tiered structure but you're still paying way more than the item can ever be worth and in many cases, the dealers might be too. And now that I check, even full sized helmets might not leave much room to even make your money back. Close in some cases. But most are a no go. My thought is who is buying at a price that allows for a dealer to make a profit? It's not happening on ebay. Maybe ebay is so rife with ebayer's doubting the authenticity that many refuse to pay much for any signed memorabilia. And I know sometimes people need to sell quick due to raising cash for an emergency. But I seriously doubt every seller selling is this way.

Any thoughts? I know I'm throwing a million things out there at once and this related a lot to football but it happens in baseball too. To me, I see this like I did the housing market a few years back. It's like a bubble that might burst. These athletes charge a small fortune for their auto and the shows tack on even more. A lot of people decide they want the auto and don't care about resell. But how long and how high will prices go on like they are before even these types of folks are shaking their heads and not going for it? Yet these shows are packed with people paying a lot of money for these autographs. You'd think it would get to a point where the supply met and overran the demand. It just doesn't seem to happen.
 

predatorkj

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
11,871
2
Wow, I just saw this after I posted and you guys are gonna crap when you see how long it is. Sorry...:eek:
 

Krom

New member
Jun 13, 2010
2,840
0
Long Island
That was way too much to read. I started to than skimmed for a while till i saw the ? in the 2nd to last paragraph about should someone sell an auto for less than it would cost to get.

If they want the $ then they will have to take what people are willing to spend. It seems like obvious that if the seller wants more than buyers are willing to pay then they will be stuck with the auto.
 

predatorkj

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
11,871
2
That was way too much to read. I started to than skimmed for a while till i saw the ? in the 2nd to last paragraph about should someone sell an auto for less than it would cost to get.

If they want the $ then they will have to take what people are willing to spend. It seems like obvious that if the seller wants more than buyers are willing to pay then they will be stuck with the auto.

I agree. But what about an autograph that nobody can get for the price the buyer offers? You get a Joe Montana auto on a mini helmet at a show, all said and done it ends up costing you maybe $150 on a good day. Are people really that willing to take that big of a loss on a regular basis?

Take Cal Ripken Jr. being at the National. It's what...$159 for his auto on a ball? You want a HOF inscription, it's $69. That's a total of $228 and that's not counting the cost of attending the show, or the ball or the authentication. Yet balls aren't selling for much more than $140ish on ebay with the same credentials. That's a hell of a price difference.
 

rum151man

New member
Mar 9, 2010
4,524
0
Nor Cal
I agree. But what about an autograph that nobody can get for the price the buyer offers? You get a Joe Montana auto on a mini helmet at a show, all said and done it ends up costing you maybe $150 on a good day. Are people really that willing to take that big of a loss on a regular basis?

Take Cal Ripken Jr. being at the National. It's what...$159 for his auto on a ball? You want a HOF inscription, it's $69. That's a total of $228 and that's not counting the cost of attending the show, or the ball or the authentication. Yet balls aren't selling for much more than $140ish on ebay with the same credentials. That's a hell of a price difference.

some people are willing to pay more for the experience of getting to meet the player and getting the item signed in person. the answer is the autograph is worth what someone is willing to pay for it at that moment.
 

Hendersonfan

New member
May 2, 2011
4,118
0
Buckeye Country
I'm guessing they might be getting a lot signed and possible discount for bulk? I've also seen the other side of this where a ball is listed for more than it costs at a signing. I don't think someone would list an item at $150 if it cost $200

Sent from my DROID X2 using Freedom Card Board mobile app
 

wolfmanalfredo

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
8,606
5
Minnesota
Some people may also just need the space and the money and take as much as they can get for it

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predatorkj

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
11,871
2
I'm guessing they might be getting a lot signed and possible discount for bulk? I've also seen the other side of this where a ball is listed for more than it costs at a signing. I don't think someone would list an item at $150 if it cost $200

Sent from my DROID X2 using Freedom Card Board mobile app

I would think not. But in the case of some of these players, I'm having a hard time believing that after the cost of the mini helmet is thrown in or baseball or bat or whatever, they are able to get the player for a low enough amount. Joe Montana on a mini helmet will cost you. I think Riddel will charge $7 a mini if you have a business license(supposedly), plus you'd have to pay for Montana. You're saying people can get him for $50? Maybe so. But it gives normal people without these perks little reason to want to pay that much for his auto. Even for Ripken, any discount still doesn't seem like it would put you in the black. And if so, just minimally.
 

predatorkj

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
11,871
2
some people are willing to pay more for the experience of getting to meet the player and getting the item signed in person. the answer is the autograph is worth what someone is willing to pay for it at that moment.

Yes, that's me. But even I am a little hesitant to spend that kind of money on something I know is worth nowhere near what I'm having to pay. But that's why I do it. I love sports and I will pay for the experience. But if I had to sell them for an emergency, I'd have to take what I can get. But knowingly spending several times what things are worth should draw a pause.
 

Hendersonfan

New member
May 2, 2011
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Buckeye Country
I guess I really don't have a logical reason then. Just hard ti believe someone would take that much of a loss in stuff.

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predatorkj

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
11,871
2
Pred is BACK!!!!! This post reminds me of the old days!!!!!

Yeah, sorry. You have to remember this is a conversation that's been going on since last Thursday-Friday so it's got a lot of baggage with it.
 

coltsfan23

New member
Aug 7, 2008
4,134
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MN
This was pointed out earlier, but I don't think you can discount the premium people are willing to pay to get it signed themselves, even with all else being equal. In addition, a significant amount of people are willing to take a loss on an item they no longer have need for, which is why there is always a decent amount of supply for IP Autoed helmets/balls/etc. on the secondary market. People in that subset of the hobby especially go through ebbs and flows of interest.
 

subject to change

New member
Aug 7, 2008
1,417
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Pittsburgh, PA
You have to realize that a large segment of the collectors going to high end signings are just that - collectors - and with deep pockets at that. I've met quite a few guys who will drop $5-10k at Chantilly on Steelers legends, and pretty much only collect signed Steelers memorabilia, and it may be the only real time they spend on the hobby all year. They don't care about value, potential ROI, or the buying and selling aspects. They're just guys who want some high end display pieces they can show off in their office, game room, etc, and they have the cash to not think twice about it. The people who are simply looking for an autograph (or looking for a possible profit) aren't the ones lining up at paid signings. There will probably always be a large enough population of casual collectors, autograph collectors who want specific pieces signed, and those who just want the chance to meet the athlete to sustain above market prices at shows. There will certainly be some wiggle room in those prices as demand lowers or rises, but I don't think we will ever see former stars or superstars signing for at or below market value.
 

Lars

Active member
Aug 25, 2008
1,269
0
You have to look at it as people have different things invested in autographs - mostly money and mostly time - for those who aren't collectors / hoarders / part time eBay dealers, it is a serious business to try and get a prominent professional athlete to do anything like spend a couple of hours signing assorted memorabilia.

The promoters aren't trying to get an extra autograph out of an free in-person signing - they trying to do it five times over while trying to show the athlete they have the money to make things happen.
 

ASTROBURN

Active member
Jun 23, 2011
4,576
0
Santa Cruz, CA
Dont freak out about the length. I enjoy reading your "articles".

I personally havent done the in person autos at shows. Mainly cuz I would only wanna meet Bagwell, and he hasnt been to shows Ive been to (which isnt many). I couldnt see myself paying all that money and trying to get it back by selling. I guess i'm on the side of the fence where it would be for my personal collection if I were to ever do one.
 

Super Mario

Well-known member
Mar 1, 2009
18,242
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Mushroom Kingdom
bwUar2.gif
 

MansGame

Active member
Sep 25, 2009
15,324
20
Dallas, TX
Long long read but worth it... Good topic and I'd say I'm in the camp of buying the auto on eBay for less than the time/cost of getting it myself... Personally not much need or want to meet said player in person unless it was a freaking legend and it was over dinner or something. Sitting in an ant farm line to meet said player for three seconds isn't worth much to me.

Just my take.
 

predatorkj

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
11,871
2
You have to realize that a large segment of the collectors going to high end signings are just that - collectors - and with deep pockets at that. I've met quite a few guys who will drop $5-10k at Chantilly on Steelers legends, and pretty much only collect signed Steelers memorabilia, and it may be the only real time they spend on the hobby all year. They don't care about value, potential ROI, or the buying and selling aspects. They're just guys who want some high end display pieces they can show off in their office, game room, etc, and they have the cash to not think twice about it. The people who are simply looking for an autograph (or looking for a possible profit) aren't the ones lining up at paid signings. There will probably always be a large enough population of casual collectors, autograph collectors who want specific pieces signed, and those who just want the chance to meet the athlete to sustain above market prices at shows. There will certainly be some wiggle room in those prices as demand lowers or rises, but I don't think we will ever see former stars or superstars signing for at or below market value.

No I don't think we will ever see them signing for or below market value. The show promoter is the middle man here and a necessary middle man at that. You'll always have to pay more at a show. I get that. My confusion is based more on the extreme gap between show prices and secondary market prices. This isn't like cards where you are gambling by buying prospects or opening packs. If you go to a show, you are literally losing money every single time you pay for an auto now. And in some cases, it looks like it could be as much as double or triple. That mixed with the idea that "meeting the player" isn't all it's thought to be at these large shows leads me to question it.

But I do understand trying to complete certain pieces. I've paid to do that and consider myself lucky to have had the opportunity.
 

predatorkj

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
11,871
2
Long long read but worth it... Good topic and I'd say I'm in the camp of buying the auto on eBay for less than the time/cost of getting it myself... Personally not much need or want to meet said player in person unless it was a freaking legend and it was over dinner or something. Sitting in an ant farm line to meet said player for three seconds isn't worth much to me.

Just my take.

My point exactly. Not much of a meeting to me. But it does depend on the athlete of course.

But apparently people value the hell out of these meetings because they'll pay two or three times what the auto is worth to meet the guy for a few seconds. You'd think most people would just buy it elsewhere and not pay crazy prices. But I am trying to keep in mind that specific pieces and projects need to get finished by some collectors.
 

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