A big ol' prospect stash and explanation of why I bought in

I've stocked up on guys from time to time, but this is a prospect stash I'm especially pleased with. I always enjoy reading about other prospector's strategies and discussing why to invest in a certain player and so forth, so I thought I'd share. Thoughts welcome!


Name: C.J. Edwards

Organization: Chicago Cubs

Age: 22 Height: 6'2" Weight: 160

2013 Key Stats: 8-2 W/L, 1.63 ERA, 155 K, 41 BB, .182 BAA, 1.41 GO/AO, 116.1 IP

What drew me to Edwards as a prospect: Absolute dominance on the mound since turning pro. He strikes out 12/9IP. He doesn't give up homeruns (only 1 HR surrendered in his entire pro career of almost 200 innings). He doesn't give up many hits or walks either (sub-.200 BAA, WHIP under 1.00). He now pitches for a huge market team (Cubs). He was named the 2013 MiLB Pitcher of the Year. Only downside to note is his size (6'2", 160 lbs), but it hasn't been any reason for concern at all to this date.

Why I bought him: The dominance noted above would be enough to excite me to pay $30-$40 per Chrome base auto, yet CJ could be had for $8-15 when I started buying, and even now can still be had in the $12-$20 range. He was MiLB Pitcher of the Year...meaning he was THE BEST pitcher in the Minors in 2013...and will almost certainly be a top 30 overall prospect going into 2014, yet he still sells like a guy who ranks in the 60-80 range. That's the type of incredible market discrepancy that won't last forever, so I took advantage while I could. As if that weren't enough, Edwards being moved to the Cubs last year cemented him as one of the best prospect investments in the Minors, as now he has one of the biggest markets in baseball backing him. I'm still buying more when they pop up, but at this point I don't feel I need much more.

What I have: 1 Red 9.5, 1 Purple 9.5, 2 Orange 9.5, 1 Orange Raw, 2 Gold 9.5, 3 Gold Raw, 2 Blue 9.5, 1 Ref raw, 1 BGS 10 Chrome Auto, 21 BGS 9.5 Chrome Autos, 4 RCR 9.5 Chrome Autos, 1 PSA 10 Chrome Auto, 30 raw chrome autos (most of which are going to BGS soon).

Total Spent: $3,784.86

Estimated Current Value: ~$5500 (difficult to estimate the high end)

Hopeful yet realistic projection: Another year of dominance at higher levels of competition should be too loud for prospectors and Cubs fans to ignore any longer, and CJ will elevate himself into elite prospect status. I see base autos climbing to the $30-$45 range, comparable to other top pitching prospects like Archie Bradley, Noah Syndergaard, etc. Parallels will follow suit. If/when this happens, I will be able to sell most of my stuff for 2-4x what I have into it, with the biggest profits coming from the cards that I've had graded myself.

Hopeful Sales: $10,000+

Needless to say, I hope he has a good season

Nice article. I think you'll do alright. I'd always be worried about career ending injuries. Thus doing what you did well I couldn't stomach it. I'd be nervous every time he took the mound

Very nice , & good luck

Great overall write-up. Have you missed anything bigger and, if so, two questions:

1) By how much

2) Do you regret not going bigger and trying to get it (i.e. Superfractor or another Red) ?

I'll be working with him next year. Want me to get you a signed jock strap or workout shirt?



He's a good one.

Are you going to hold all of it? With a frail pitcher, I would be locking in some profits during spring training or in the following month when all the prospect lists come out.

brewerfan99 said:

Nice article. I think you'll do alright. I'd always be worried about career ending injuries. Thus doing what you did well I couldn't stomach it. I'd be nervous every time he took the mound

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It's always a concern but in order to reap the reward of an investment, there is almost always some sort of risk associated. The hope is, of course, that he stays healthy so it's a non-issue.

55_marlins_sp said:

Great overall write-up. Have you missed anything bigger and, if so, two questions:

1) By how much

2) Do you regret not going bigger and trying to get it (i.e. Superfractor or another Red) ?

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1-I basically bought every color parallel that showed up at auction for awhile, so for the time I was buying heavy, I got them all. I've picked up a couple more golds the last couple weeks and will continue to buy if they stay in the same range, but I honestly don't know how it's possible for them to stay as low as they are much longer unless he comes out and completely sucks this spring.

2-Having a complete rainbow is definitely a cool feeling, but I'm not worried about completing this one with the superfractor as this is all for resale. If it were a personal collection, I'd be searching high and low for it. As for having a ton of base chrome autos rather than high end, IMO it is worth buying as much as possible of a guy who is selling way lower than his performance suggests he should be. If he was close to the Majors, then I'd be a little nervous since the sell window is generally smaller for these types of players, but he's still probably a full season away from Wrigley, so there's plenty of time to move the large quantity of lower end autos.

padremurph said:

Are you going to hold all of it? With a frail pitcher, I would be locking in some profits during spring training or in the following month when all the prospect lists come out.

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Perhaps, say, a Josh Johnson type ?

Hallsgator said:

I'll be working with him next year. Want me to get you a signed jock strap or workout shirt?



He's a good one.

Click to expand...

Very cool, although I think I'll pass on the jock strap for now.

padremurph said:

Are you going to hold all of it? With a frail pitcher, I would be locking in some profits during spring training or in the following month when all the prospect lists come out.

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I've already moved a few, but I'll probably dump a larger portion when spring training rolls around and BA and other prospect experts are hyping guys like him for the 2014 season. Ideally his raw chrome autos will be consistently selling for at least $25 before I really start moving stuff.

One bump for anyone else who cares or wants to discuss prospects