Prospecting High End Players

Let's look specifically at Byron Buxton, the number one prospect in baseball. He appears to have a very real chance to be a special baseball player.



But is his Gold Ref Auto worth buying at $1000? Where can those possibly go? I didn't follow Trout high end, does anyone know when his Golds broke $1k and where their all-time peak has been? What will Buxton need to do to make that a $2000 card?


Likewise, I think I'd rather have 10 Gold Ref Autos of a very good prospect at $100 apiece (think a guy in the #25-50 range of overall prospect rankings), rather than one Gold Ref Auto of Buxton at $1000.

I am on the same page as you. I would much rather buy into the mid-range type guy, in hopes that he will be a top 10 guy down the road (Think Javier Baez, Taijuan Walker, etc).

Honest question: can you get any Top 50 gold autos for $100. I understand your point, but can you get any decent prospect's high end auto without spending $250+? That's why I stay away from Top 50 high end and concentrate on their base or Sterling stuff. I want my sleeper stuff to be high-end if I can.

What you're asking/claiming here isn't brain surgery. You're absolutely correct. Investing in those price points isn't....investing. It's paying an amount to have something.

ballerskrip said:

I am on the same page as you. I would much rather buy into the mid-range type guy, in hopes that he will be a top 10 guy down the road (Think Javier Baez, Taijuan Walker, etc).

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Exactly, and ideally you'd buy a large quantity of their high end cards while they're still low-end pricing, so when they climb the rankings you're sitting on a gold mine.

hive17 said:

Honest question: can you get any Top 50 gold autos for $100. I understand your point, but can you get any decent prospect's high end auto without spending $250+? That's why I stay away from Top 50 high end and concentrate on their base or Sterling stuff. I want my sleeper stuff to be high-end if I can.

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Not all of them, but you can definitely pick out a few players who fall in that range. Ranks will change from list to list but these guys are all in or close to the top 50 on at least two lists and can be had for less than $100: Jon Singleton, Jake Odorizzi, Jake Marisnick, Justin Nicolino, Tyler Skaggs, Zach Lee, Jesse Biddle, Avisail Garcia, Austin Hedges, Alex Meyer.

sheetskout said:

What you're asking/claiming here isn't brain surgery. You're absolutely correct. Investing in those price points isn't....investing. It's paying an amount to have something.

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I think there's something to be said about the top prospects around spring training. The last few years we've seen some enormous price jumps. That's where this topic roots, as I think under normal circumstances, you are correct that the true investors are looking for the next big thing before everyone else is already on board.

I have two of these for the record. It helps that I graded them myself so I'll make that premium, but it's difficult to decide when to sell since raw golds are already up 25-30% from where I bought in, and there's nothing in the foreseeable future that will inhibit their climb in value until he steps back onto the field.

Best time to sell is either call-up day or a big first couple games on these babies!

All The Hype said:

Exactly, and ideally you'd buy a large quantity of their high end cards while they're still low-end pricing, so when they climb the rankings you're sitting on a gold mine.



Not all of them, but you can definitely pick out a few players who fall in that range. Ranks will change from list to list but these guys are all in or close to the top 50 on at least two lists and can be had for less than $100: Jon Singleton, Jake Odorizzi, Jake Marisnick, Justin Nicolino, Tyler Skaggs, Zach Lee, Jesse Biddle, Avisail Garcia, Austin Hedges, Alex Meyer.






I think there's something to be said about the top prospects around spring training. The last few years we've seen some enormous price jumps. That's where this topic roots, as I think under normal circumstances, you are correct that the true investors are looking for the next big thing before everyone else is already on board.

I have two of these for the record. It helps that I graded them myself so I'll make that premium, but it's difficult to decide when to sell since raw golds are already up 25-30% from where I bought in, and there's nothing in the foreseeable future that will inhibit their climb in value until he steps back onto the field.

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Trout gold ref was 800-900 for a whole. Dropped to 600-700 after slow end to. 2011 season. Then killed it during strong 2012 season

Pretty close with buxton and trout prices.

I prefer to sell during a hot stretch in spring training or at call-up time. If you hold hoping for a big first week ala Puig you are really rolling the dice. Pays huge if it happens, but the safe bet is right at call-up time.

Well Buxton is an odd exception, even Hayward didn't see those prices when he made the team after being named #1 .

I bought a few Buxton Sterling autos, with hope of him pulling a Trout in a couple of years. Sort of a low risk venture. Because honestly, that's what it's going to take to make decent money off of those.

What's funny is, Bryant won't probably be too far behind Buxton when 14 Bowman comes out price wise and I don't know if he'll even be in the top ten when BA's list comes out. Another card I will probably pass on right after release.

If you bought early on a guy, there's nothing wrong with unloading around ST. Sometimes it's better to take the money and run instead of waiting for a hot stretch or call up.

Anyone notice any rising prices so far? I see Castellanos and Polanco bases are back up to $35. Giolito up to $25.

After following this stuff for years one thing I have learned is that you cannot compare players from different years at different stages in their development or career; the market simply does not make sense if you do. That said, while Buxton prices are insanely high, a hot start could mean increases. On the other hand, I have seen player's whose prices dropped after the handbook came out even though the player was rated right near the top, simply because many people had held until then and then sold, leading to a major increase in supply in a short period of time.

Topnotchsy said:

After following this stuff for years one thing I have learned is that you cannot compare players from different years at different stages in their development or career; the market simply does not make sense if you do. That said, while Buxton prices are insanely high, a hot start could mean increases. On the other hand, I have seen player's whose prices dropped after the handbook came out even though the player was rated right near the top, simply because many people had held until then and then sold, leading to a major increase in supply in a short period of time.

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Good points, especially the challenge of comparing players from different years. I think it's worth noting that Buxton won't be a surprise by any means...he's going to be the obvious #1 overall prospect on every list that comes out. If he has a big spring training, I could see Gold Refs pushing $1500. Crazy money, but how can you argue with it when we've seen Mike Trout golds sell for what, $3-$4k?

I think there's always money to be made if the player continues to impress on the field...and that's where people have to decide whether they want to dump a ton of money into one card hoping for a high dollar flip, even if it's a lower ROI, or go for the quantity of a lower end player for a larger ROI but maybe not as large of a dollar amount.