With the Trout explosion will we see a jump in Kershaw prices?

Topnotchsy · Mar 20, 2014

As the young phenom who looks to be the best offensive player in baseball Trout's prices have gone through the roof recently. It seems reasonable to consider that Kershaw is his equivalent on the mound. With 2 Cy Young
Awards in 3 years and historically good numbers, he seems to be a once in a generation talent as well.

On that note, do you think we may see a spoke in Kershaw prices? I don't imagine anything like Trout but maybe on a smaller scale? I've been thinking about this and debating whether to start buying Kershaw stuff again...

Thoughts?

Vagrant · Mar 20, 2014

It would be a worthy gamble, but pitchers are so incredibly finicky in prices. With the potential for injury and falling off the face of the earth (Lincecum, Tim) (Strasburg, Stephen) etc. it's going to be an uphill climb for Kershaw to improve upon his current standing in the market. The fact that he just put up a season that will not likely be replicated and his cards still haven't erupted relative to the level of Trout would concern me.

Topnotchsy · Mar 20, 2014

Vagrant said:
It would be a worthy gamble, but pitchers are so incredibly finicky in prices. With the potential for injury and falling off the face of the earth (Lincecum, Tim) (Strasburg, Stephen) etc. it's going to be an uphill climb for Kershaw to improve upon his current standing in the market. The fact that he just put up a season that will not likely be replicated and his cards still haven't erupted relative to the level of Trout would concern me.

I definitely hear you on Lincecum and Strasburg. Lincecum (to me) is the bigger concern because he too had won 2 Cy Young Awards before the last couple of years when he was nothing close to that. While some may point to his unorthodox windup, pitchers have had unorthodox windups in the past and been successful for longer periods of time, and Lincecum certainly showed he can be successful. That said, he was never the pitcher that Kershaw has been over the last few years. Still it's a concern.

As for performance, Trout's prices have jumped like crazy in the last few weeks and that likely has little to do with performance. Sometimes the market's perception just shifts on a player. Kershaw's prices went up a ton towards the end of last season when people pointed out his lifetime ERA was at all-time great levels. If he can come back and pitch another Cy Young caliber season we are talking about him joining a very rare club of players who have won the award 3 times, and he'll have done it at such a young age. Plus, with the money the Dodgers have spent recently, sooner or later he has to get some run support and should win 20+ games. That will help him get more attention.

I've been blown away by the levels that Trout's cards are reaching, and it just makes me wonder if the market perception of the value of the top players in the sport is changing. Of course it may just be Trout...

Vagrant · Mar 20, 2014

For me, I just don't trust that these young pitchers are ever going to be able to consistently put up numbers into their mid to late 30's the way the guys used to in order to compile the kind of eye popping numbers from the previous generation. For whatever reason, it seems like arms are more disposable now. Guys that used to be top of the rotation starters that have just fallen off the cliff seems to be a somewhat new phenomenon. A few years ago we'd have claimed guys like Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, Dontrelle Willis, Francisco Liriano, and limitless others to be on the path to compiling potential HOF numbers. For whatever reason arms are giving out at a rate that we can't keep up with and it might mean the last we've seen of the 300 winners. The window for pitchers has been shortened immensely, probably in correlation with the level of pitching in youth leagues.

I heard an interesting take by Dr. Andrews about an arm only having "so many" abrupt arm action pitches in it before it taps out. Which makes it seem like the new prime years for pitchers is creeping towards the early to mid 20's before the arm totally starts to break down. I just don't think it's a safe long term strategy to invest in a pitcher that is closing in on the years when traditionally arms have started to show signs of fatigue. I think Kershaw is the safest bet in baseball on the mound, but my trepidation is bigger than my faith in his ability to sustain this kind of pitching for long enough to see him transition into the upper echelon of historical greatness.

nappyd · Mar 20, 2014

I think you should stock up and pay as much as possible now then make threads trying to further hype a player on sports card message boards

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nappyd · Mar 20, 2014

Vagrant said:
For me, I just don't trust that these young pitchers are ever going to be able to consistently put up numbers into their mid to late 30's the way the guys used to in order to compile the kind of eye popping numbers from the previous generation. For whatever reason, it seems like arms are more disposable now. Guys that used to be top of the rotation starters that have just fallen off the cliff seems to be a somewhat new phenomenon. A few years ago we'd have claimed guys like Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, Dontrelle Willis, Francisco Liriano, and limitless others to be on the path to compiling potential HOF numbers. For whatever reason arms are giving out at a rate that we can't keep up with and it might mean the last we've seen of the 300 winners. The window for pitchers has been shortened immensely, probably in correlation with the level of pitching in youth leagues.

I heard an interesting take by Dr. Andrews about an arm only having "so many" abrupt arm action pitches in it before it taps out. Which makes it seem like the new prime years for pitchers is creeping towards the early to mid 20's before the arm totally starts to break down. I just don't think it's a safe long term strategy to invest in a pitcher that is closing in on the years when traditionally arms have started to show signs of fatigue. I think Kershaw is the safest bet in baseball on the mound, but my trepidation is bigger than my faith in his ability to sustain this kind of pitching for long enough to see him transition into the upper echelon of historical greatness.

Agree with this. Guys pitch too much year round now growing up and in the minors etc. for them to make it to their late 30s and still be as effective

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JoshHamilton · Mar 20, 2014

I'll throw another name out there that should double at least: Paul Goldschmidt. .302/36/125 is huge in your second year

PeteD · Mar 20, 2014

Pitchers hardly make good investments...1 pitch away from TJ.

smapdi · Mar 20, 2014

The way things have progressed with collectibles is that there seems to be a ceiling that the best card of the top guy gets reached, and salty veteran collectors get nosebleeds. Then he has another incredible year and prices rise still more you only wished you had bought at the old ceiling because the new ceiling is 20-30% higher. I was at a show in January 2013 and a guy had a Trout BC gold ref for $3500, IIRC. Today, there's one on ebay bid up to $9000(!) with 4 days to go.

While buying pitchers for a long-term investment has always been against my own personal rules, Kershaw just turned 25 yesterday, and barring injury (always a risk) or poor performance (not impossible) prices should be stable. If he has a hot start or a single incredible game (19+ Ks, no-hitter), the next rung can be reached. Another Cy Young could put him in Trout territory. Betting on one guy against the field to win the Cy Young is a fool's bet, but it's not impossible. That's how CYAs have run for the past 10-15 years, with the same guy winning several years in a row. However, one could have had this same discussion in 2010 and substituted Tim Lincecum for Clayton Kershaw, and how would that have worked out?

CubsfanP · Mar 20, 2014

Kershaw's prices are the highest I've ever seen for a modern pitcher, besides Strasburg.

I wouldn't be a buyer.

Topnotchsy · Mar 20, 2014

CubsfanP said:
Kershaw's prices are the highest I've ever seen for a modern pitcher, besides Strasburg.

I wouldn't be a buyer.

The obvious response to that is that Kershaw is the best pitcher in the "modern (cardboard) era" but it's definitely a point worth considering.

ThoseBackPages · Mar 20, 2014

jump? not likely. Pitchers for the most part are fodder for hitters. Always have been, always will be.

if he fantastic? absolutely. Can you make money on him (and other pitchers)? absolutely.

When discussing amongst your non-card friends … "Who are the greatest players of all time?" not many name pitchers, unless prompted to do so

Austin · Mar 20, 2014

Topnotchsy, I mean this sincerely and not as a snide remark.

Since you'd be buying Kershaw cards purely to make money, why not instead use those hundreds or thousands of dollars for the charity in your signature.?
I'm sure you've already donated plenty, but they've almost reached their goal and you're not risking your money like you would with a baseball card investment.

It's just a suggestion since it's in your sig. It would be a shame if you lost money on a baseball card investment that could have been used to reach your family charity's goal.

Topnotchsy · Mar 20, 2014

Austin said:
Topnotchsy, I mean this sincerely and not as a snide remark.

Since you'd be buying Kershaw cards purely to make money, why not instead use those hundreds or thousands of dollars for the charity in your signature.?
I'm sure you've already donated plenty, but they've almost reached their goal and you're not risking your money like you would with a baseball card investment.

It's just a suggestion since it's in your sig. It would be a shame if you lost money on a baseball card investment that could have been used to reach your family charity's goal.

No worries, I did not take it the negatively. You actually reminded me to remove that from my sig (I have the site set to not display sigs so I forgot it was there). We were able to reach our goal (for some reason the last donations were not posted on the site). Of course there are many organizations worthy of money so it is definitely something to consider.

Austin · Mar 20, 2014

Topnotchsy said:
No worries, I did not take it the negatively. You actually reminded me to remove that from my sig (I have the site set to not display sigs so I forgot it was there). We were able to reach our goal (for some reason the
last donations were not posted on the site). Of course there are many organizations worthy of money so it is definitely something to consider.

That's awesome you reached your goal. I only mentioned it because it was a charity personal to you. I'm not implying that anyone should donate money to charity rather than investing in cards or other pursuits. Donating is purely a personal choice.

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With the Trout explosion will we see a jump in Kershaw prices?

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