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Interesting thought regarding cards being "packed out" in recent products

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MansGame

Active member
Sep 25, 2009
15,324
20
Dallas, TX
So since I'm a player collector of someone who played in the '90s and the '90s was when I was probably the most heavily involved in the hobby, I had an interesting though today...

I sometimes think about Albert Belle cards from pre-2001 and whether or not they are "packed out" because of how much product was created back in the '90s but also with how much product is still out there unopened and with people hoarding product from back then. For example, someone has a box of 1999 Fleer Traditions and in my head I always say "man I hope an Albert Belle Starting Line /9 is hiding in there after all these years."

Well it got me thinking, is it safe to assume ALL cards or 99% of all cards are "packed out" when it comes to products released in the last ~5 years or so?!

The only reason why I say this is because (1) there is not as much product released with all the high end stuff today, (2) with all the redemption cards now a days, hoarding boxes is a terrible idea because you'll likely end up with expired redemption's and (3) the mentality IMO that hoarding boxes for the future could return huge value... I think that ship has sailed.

Anyone have any thoughts regarding this? I just think all the Belle 1/1s and printing plates, etc. that I do not have since 2010 are "packed out" and out there somewhere and not hiding in any unopened product or boxes but maybe I'm not thinking of this right. Maybe there is a huge stash of 2012 TTT out there and Belle is just sitting in there and won't be seen for years and years to come?
 

gracecollector

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
6,559
215
Lake in the Hills, IL
I think we also overlook the fact that some people break but don't sell. I think a lot of people think that every 1 of 1 ends up on eBay, and that if you pull a 1 of 1 of someone you don't collect, you'll sell it. But that's not 100% true. There's a certain percentage of rare cards that are pulled and stay in the original box buster's collection, never to see the light of day.

I think you're correct in your assumptions that hoarding boxes today is not a good idea, and that most modern is broken upon release. There are always exceptions to the rule though.
 

BBCgalaxee

Well-known member
Sep 9, 2011
6,475
59
Case in point, that Heritage Chrome Scott Hairston card ('59 design).

There's no problem finding the refractor version but it's nearly impossible to find the regular version.



Sent from my HTCONE using Freedom Card Board mobile app
 
Last edited:

MansGame

Active member
Sep 25, 2009
15,324
20
Dallas, TX
I think we also overlook the fact that some people break but don't sell. I think a lot of people think that every 1 of 1 ends up on eBay, and that if you pull a 1 of 1 of someone you don't collect, you'll sell it. But that's not 100% true. There's a certain percentage of rare cards that are pulled and stay in the original box buster's collection, never to see the light of day.

I think you're correct in your assumptions that hoarding boxes today is not a good idea, and that most modern is broken upon release. There are always exceptions to the rule though.
Good point on the oversight of some people to think every card will hit eBay. I agree with you and never think every Belle 1/1 will show up on eBay but was mostly just saying that I (and others) shouldn't be thinking that said card(s) are sitting unopened but likely in someone collection or showcase and probably unlikely to be seen on eBay, COMC, etc.
 

smapdi

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
4,397
221
Ebay is great for delusions of being able to obtain anything, eventually, but there's definitely a non-zero chance that the cards you want are just going to sit in the dark forever. Just remember that as long as there are 9 unopened packs of 1999 Fleer in the world, there is a chance that none of the Belle Starting 9s are in circulation.

But not all cards are packed out. I read or heard somewhere that Topps keeps 6% of the print run for replacements and whatnot, even the 1/1s. For instance, I know a guy who won a Grady Sizemore printing plate (outbidding me) from 2005 Turkey Red or something. He didn't like that it had a scratch across it, so he sent it in to Topps asking for replacement, and they sent him a Chase Utley plate. So that's one out of the loop. I assume the other card makers are like that.
 

IUjapander

New member
Jan 28, 2011
1,003
0
Indianapolis
While I can't really guess about packout, here is my completely unsubstantiated opinion about how much of a product will eventually be available for sale. This is what I have seen, for the players that I collect over the past five years. This is judged buy what I actually own, plus what I have seen available through the years.

70% of the product run will be available for sale. Prospect Products (Anything Bowman, Leaf drafts, etc.) Most of this is broken by flippers, gamblers, non-collectors, so most of this gets listed.

50% of the product run will be available. $50+ price per pack products. Your Tribute, Five Star, Triple Threads etc. all fall into this bucket. More true collectors buy this stuff, but it is expensive enough that some people will try to get a return on some cards.

30% of the product run will be available. Things like Ginter, Gypsy Queen, Heritage, Leaf Pop Century. Dedicated collecting base. People buy cases purely to build sets, not looking to sell. Retail sales are higher than the above, and in my experience retail buyers are not the ebay seller types.

15% of the product run will be available. Any base Topps product, or any really terrible product (2014 Topps Mini, 2013 Panini Select, etc) I'm generally lucky if I can find one plate in a base product. Forget about finding a platinum 1/1. This is bought heavily in retail, and see above about retail buyers. This is also the most 'collected' products. People buy a box year in and year out without any intention of selling anything.


In summation, if a guy has 10 1/1s in Bowman Draft you will probably see 6-8 of them. If a guy has 10 1/1s in Topps Series 1 you will probably only see 1 or 2 of them.
 

Yanks2151

Active member
Nov 9, 2013
3,231
8
I for one get a few boxes of '99 Tradition a year just thinking I will pull a starting 9. (Never did pull one) I also buy other boxes/brands thinking the same thing. I have a felling some are burried in packs but then I think there are still people out there that don't do anything on the computer. One of the last card shops to close in my town would have never done anything online if I didn't put it online for him. That was in 2000. He reopened in another town off and on and I recently saw him. He still has all his inventory and contemplates opening it again. Who knows what he has for inventory and its all on hold at his other business.
 

AnthonyCorona

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2014
9,600
68
Modesto, CA
Why must you guys use logical and sound reasoning to crush my hopes of finding the 06 Bowman Chrome Brandon Wood superfractor I want? The thought of topps still having it stored somewhere never really crossed my mind
 

Joey_peapod

Active member
Jan 27, 2014
687
30
Regardless of how much product is out there, some of these cards may never be seen. It's almost impossible to hit some of the rare 90s inserts. I bought a case of 99 metal with 20 boxes and got 5 common PMGs all with chipping and no Gem Master which was what I was hoping to hit.

Im sure there are treasure troves of boxes say in the Down south where the internet never took off with the late 90s shop owners that went out of business. I've bought a ton of boxes and never really hit anything big.
 

athletics07

Member
Nov 10, 2013
883
0
Anyone every seen a '98 Topps Stars Galaxy or Luminaries Gold Rainbow /5? 25 total cards so there should be 125 somewhere.
 

magicpapa

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
10,057
1,347
Anyone every seen a '98 Topps Stars Galaxy or Luminaries Gold Rainbow /5? 25 total cards so there should be 125 somewhere.

Had one............
rainbow-1.jpg
 

predatorkj

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
11,871
2
Regardless of how much product is out there, some of these cards may never be seen. It's almost impossible to hit some of the rare 90s inserts. I bought a case of 99 metal with 20 boxes and got 5 common PMGs all with chipping and no Gem Master which was what I was hoping to hit.

Im sure there are treasure troves of boxes say in the Down south where the internet never took off with the late 90s shop owners that went out of business. I've bought a ton of boxes and never really hit anything big.

Hey! We know how to use dem der contraptions!
 

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