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Which current pitchers will end up in the HOF?

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Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
9,446
168
Spent a bit of time thinking about this and I think it makes for some really interesting conversation since there aren't too many really clear answers. With roughly 60 pitchers in the HOF, and each HOF pitcher pitching on average 15-20 seasons or so, you would expect there to be around 10 future HOFers pitching at any point in time. Obviously a couple of may be relievers, and some will be so early in their careers that it is silly to try to project. Looking around the league though, it's surprising how hard it was to come up with names.

If you look at the list of active players with the most wins (I pulled this from Baseball-Reference and posted it below) it doesn't seem like a ton of guys warrant consideration. #1 is Tim Hudson who is retiring, so he'll stay at 222 wins. He's near 100 wins over .500 but his stats definitely don't scream HOF. In the top 5, I don't think anyone is really considering Colon, Buehrle, Lackey or Zito (the last 2 are tied for 5th) for the Hall. Sabathia may get a bit of thought, as he's got a Cy Young and a few other top 5 finishes, but his ERA is not great, and he looks close to finished where he is at 214 wins.

Moving through the rest of the top 10 the number of wins are down in the 150 area, so a really long way from HOF consideration. The first real candidate would appear to be Justin Verlander. But looking at Verlander's career stats it's hard for me not to think that he's someone who has not been as good as people seem to remember. He won lots of games as a rookie (winning ROY) but did so with a decent, but not great ERA. Later in his career he had 2 absolutely dominant seasons (winning the Cy Young and MVP in 2011 and finishing second in the Cy Young race in 2012. Outside of that he's been a solid, but not great pitcher. This is reflected in his ERA+ (a stat that looks at ERA compared to the league average and adjusts based on ballpark. Someone with a 100 ERA+ has the same ERA as the average in the league. 110 is 10% better etc.) Verlander's ERA+ for his career (so including his 2 great seasons) is 121, meaning that for his career his ERA is 21% better than league average. It's a decent number, but nothing special. To compare, Tim Hudson's is 120, CC Sabathia's 117, so very similar. Cole Hamels is at 124. And Verlander this season looked like he's on the downside of his career (although he ended the year strong.) He could still make a run, but he likely needs a minimum of 60-80 more wins to warrant consideration. Not sure he can do that.

Finally at numbers 14-16 we have some interesting candidates. None of these guys have 150 wins yet, so still a ways a way, but some of the top pitchers of the last few seasons.

Felix Hernandex has 143 wins, and at age 29, seems to be young enough to rack up enough wins to warrant consideration. Hernandez has been pitching seemingly forever since he broke into the league as a teenager. His win/loss record 143-101 is not great, but he's always been someone who has led the charge for the "wins and loses are misleading" team. His ERA+ of 127 is a bit better than the previous group and in line with pitchers in the Hall or who are considered for the Hall (Seaver and Schilling have the same ERA+). In my eyes he's the first player on this list with a reasonably high likelihood of making the Hall.

Cliff Lee also has 143 wins. He has a winning percentage over .600 and has a Cy Young to his name but at 35, may not even reach 200 wins.

Next with 142 wins is Zack Greinke. Greinke just finished a historic season, and its not the first one he has had. His ERA of 1.66 was one of the lowest since the deadball era and was good for a 225 ERA+ (meaning his ERA was an insane 125% better than league average.) This was not the first time he has been better than double league average. In his Cy Young 2009 campaign he had a 205 ERA+. These represent 2 of the absolute best seasons by anyone in the laast 15 years or so and should mean he has 2 Cy Young Awards for his mantle.

Counting against him are a number of factors. Greinke is in his 30's so it's unclear how many great seasons he has left. And outside of the 2 historic seasons, he has been a very good, but not great pitcher. With those 2 seasons included his ERA+ is 123. Solid, but not HOF worthy. Although he's had his best extended stretch since joining LA.

No one else in the top 20 really warrants discussion.

Other names that warrant consideration include Adam Wainwright, whose ERA+ of 133 is second highest of any active player, but because he began his career at 25 and has missed basically 2 full seasons due to injury, it is hard to imagine he will get the wins he needs (he's at 121.) He does have a career ERA under 3 which is highly impressive.

David Price has over 100 wins and is not yet 30. He's won a Cy Young and finished 2nd once, and could finish in the top 2 this season, but he's been inconsistent season to season.

Johny Cueto had 4 seasons in a row in Cincinnati with an ERA under 3 (and was doing the same this season before the trade) but I don't think he's reached a point that anyone sees him as a real legit candidate to one day make the Hall.

Max Scherzer has a Cy Young Award under his belt and pitched 2 no-hitters this season, but he's 30 with just 105 wins. He's a long way from really being in the discussion for now.

It looks like the only other guy really worth discussing (unless I forgot someone) is Clayton Kershaw. At 27 years old he already has 3 Cy Young Awards (probably should have won 4, as he was a better pitcher the year RA Dickey won the Award.) He has an MVP, 2 seasons with a sub-2 ERA, a 300 K season and a career ERA+ of 154 (tied with Pedro Martinez as the best ever, although Pedro did it over 18 seasons and Kershaw is at 8, so he has a long way to go.) He may very well be the only pitcher whose current resume warrants the Hall already (while the counting totals are low, the sheer dominance is almost unmatched in history.

At a time when pitching is seeing a resurgence we should expect to see some more names join this list in the next few seasons. Pitchers like Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Gerrit Cole, Jacob DeGrom, Jake Arrieta, Sonny Gray and Chris Archer are just some of the guys who show they have what it takes. Still, it is interesting to consider that over the last decade, almost no one has been able to sustain the level of performance needed to make the Hall. Makes you appreciate guys like Pedro, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and others a little more.

Most Career Wins by an Active Player

1.
Tim Hudson (17, 39)222R
2.
Bartolo Colon (18, 42)218R
3.
Mark Buehrle (16, 36)214L

CC Sabathia (15, 34)214L
5.
John Lackey (13, 36)165R

Barry Zito (15, 37)165L
7.
A.J. Burnett (17, 38)164R
8.
Justin Verlander (11, 32)157R
9.Freddy Garcia (15, 38)156R
10.Dan Haren (13, 34)153R
11.Kyle Lohse (15, 36)147R
Jake Peavy (14, 34)147R
13.Bronson Arroyo (15, 38)145R
14.Felix Hernandez (11, 29)143R
Cliff Lee (13, 36)143L
16.Zack Greinke (12, 31)142R
17.Jered Weaver (10, 32)138R
18.
Randy Wolf (16, 38)133L
19.
Aaron Harang (14, 37)128R
20.
Jon Lester (10, 31)127L

James Shields (10, 33)127R
 

scotty216brs

Active member
Apr 15, 2012
3,524
16
MA
Interesting to think about...


I'd say Kershaw is lock, he is the best pitcher of our generation besides Pedro...as long as he reaches the 10 year mark he's in. I think Price and Hernandez get in when it's all said and done. If Scherzer can keep up his numbers for a few more years I say he gets in too. Cueto and Grienke could get in, but it depends on how their careers go from here on out. I think Madison Bumgarner gets in because of his numbers at his age, as well as his postseason numbers. Wainwright is an interesting case because he has the numbers to get in, but maybe not the longevity numbers because of his injuries. CC Sabathia will probably get in because he has the compilation stats, but I shouldn't sell him short because he was one of the top pitchers in baseball from 06'-12'. I think Verlander falls just short, but he will definitely get some votes. I think Haren/Zito/Hudson all fall short, but will get some votes. There are a lot of young pitchers in the league right now that will eventually pitch their way into consideration, but it's too early to say on those guys.


tl;dr - Kershaw, Hernandez, Price, Scherzer, CC, and Bumgarner all get my HOF vote. Wainwright is on the bubble, if he can pitch at a high level for 3-5 more years I say he makes it.
 

16christensen16

New member
Mar 23, 2015
1,635
1
spencer iowa
Great stuff. As of right now kershawn to me defiantly looks like a hall of farmer. The 2nd person I think of right now is bumgarnner and King Felix, both have work to do still.
 

metallicalex777

Super Moderator
Aug 7, 2008
13,903
117
Seattle, Wa
Great write up! One thing I would add is that by the time voting comes around to pitchers like Felix Hernandez (you all know I am biased haha!) I truly believe win/loss numbers will not weigh as heavy. Minus this year, most of Felix's losses have nothing to do with him having a tough ERA and everything to do with no offense or blown saves. It will be interesting for sure to see when their time comes, and I know he will certainly get my vote :)
 

UMich92

Well-known member
Sep 18, 2008
1,870
42
Nice write up. I agree that Kershaw is the one pitcher that is definitely on a HOF path with Felix right behind him. As a Tigers fan, I'm very interested to find out if Verlander ' s 2nd half resurgence was because he was finally healthy. And if so, hopefully he can put together a couple more strong seasons.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Freedom Card Board mobile app
 

cjedmonton

Well-known member
Sep 20, 2009
1,890
313
Great White North
My brief take on the lefties.

If their career ended today...no southpaw gets in on the 1st ballot.

Kershaw: Does not meet the min. 10 years of service, but is a cinch if he plays long enough. His 8 year resume surpasses most having careers twice as long (or more). His lackluster postseason will not dilute his sheer dominance otherwise. Becoming every bit Koufax's equal, in my opinion as a lifelong Dodgers fan...despite not have witnessed the legendary Sandy firsthand.

Sabathia: Have really enjoyed watching Carsten Charles over the past decade+. However, I believe that he will be remembered as more or less as a compiler, despite the wins (for this era) and Cy. Playing so many years in NY will help him garner more than enough votes to stick around for a few years until he finally gets in. I predict the 3rd or 4th ballot.

Bumgarner: Certainly trending well, and tales of his postseason heroics will endure for years. Needs to win some regular season hardware/titles, or hit important career benchmarks to help reinforce his candidacy. October exploits alone are not enough (think Pettitte, Hershiser, et al).

Price: May actually be underrated, since he has played for small markets his entire career (TB, Det, Tor). His pending free agency may very well land him in a 4th market before turning 32. In my opinion, this may cause voters to become disconnected with just how masterful he's been, since he may not be strongly associated with any one team).

Buehrle: One of my favorite active (?) lefties. A good ol' boy who would likely prefer to hunt/fish...despite the life baseball gave him. Several cool watercooler tidbits fill his resume (14 consecutive seasons of 200IP and double digit wins (think about that!), one of the best fielding pitchers of his time with 4 Gold Glove awards, perfect game, etc...). Sadly, none of that is enough to warrant induction for this popular soft tossing southpaw.

Zito: Came on to the scene like gangbusters as 1/3 of Oakland's famed Big 3 in the early oughts. As later years would later reveal, there is just not enough performance for voters to seriously consider. However, I understand that he's a heck of a surfer/guitarist.

Lee: Assembled a very nice career, but other than his astounding 2008/2011 campaigns, he is on the wrong side of 35 to hit any career milestones voters know and love. There is a long line of pitchers over the years with one or two great seasons. Lee's will not supercede theirs.

Hamels: Another fall hero, but also another not to have put up enough numbers otherwise. The no-no is always cool to talk about, but ultimately, he will fall short.

Happ: Just making sure you are still with me here.

Sale: Excellent early pace to his career. Already an elite power pitcher. The usual injury disclaimer notwithstanding, there is no reason why he won't be a household name in short order. Don't see the all around supremacy of Kershaw, but has every opportunity to carve out an otherwise terrific career.

Several others could be discussed, but I won't at this time.

Thanks to the OP for bringing up a fun topic.
 

RStadlerASU22

Active member
Jan 2, 2013
8,881
11
It's a lil crazy to think that even though we are in a pitching era (vs HR era), that maybe 1-3 of those pitching now are HOF caliber.

Ryan
 

Austin

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
5,706
41
Dallas, Texas
I think only Kershaw and Felix are close to sure things. Felix is already 61st all time in strikeouts and he's only 29!
Price also has a shot. Bumgarner is only 25, so way too early.
Verlander will have to rebound and dominate over the next 5-7 years to be a real candidate.


Among relievers, Craig Kimbrel ranks up there with Kershaw as having the best shot.
Kimbrel has been historically incredible, leading the NL in saves 4 or his first 5 years with a 1.63 career era and 563 Ks in only 348 innings.
By the time he retires, he could be known as the most dominating regular season reliever of all time.
 

metallicalex777

Super Moderator
Aug 7, 2008
13,903
117
Seattle, Wa
My brief take on the lefties.

If their career ended today...no southpaw gets in on the 1st ballot.

Kershaw: Does not meet the min. 10 years of service, but is a cinch if he plays long enough. His 8 year resume surpasses most having careers twice as long (or more). His lackluster postseason will not dilute his sheer dominance otherwise. Becoming every bit Koufax's equal, in my opinion as a lifelong Dodgers fan...despite not have witnessed the legendary Sandy firsthand.

Sabathia: Have really enjoyed watching Carsten Charles over the past decade+. However, I believe that he will be remembered as more or less as a compiler, despite the wins (for this era) and Cy. Playing so many years in NY will help him garner more than enough votes to stick around for a few years until he finally gets in. I predict the 3rd or 4th ballot.

Bumgarner: Certainly trending well, and tales of his postseason heroics will endure for years. Needs to win some regular season hardware/titles, or hit important career benchmarks to help reinforce his candidacy. October exploits alone are not enough (think Pettitte, Hershiser, et al).

Price: May actually be underrated, since he has played for small markets his entire career (TB, Det, Tor). His pending free agency may very well land him in a 4th market before turning 32. In my opinion, this may cause voters to become disconnected with just how masterful he's been, since he may not be strongly associated with any one team).

Buehrle: One of my favorite active (?) lefties. A good ol' boy who would likely prefer to hunt/fish...despite the life baseball gave him. Several cool watercooler tidbits fill his resume (14 consecutive seasons of 200IP and double digit wins (think about that!), one of the best fielding pitchers of his time with 4 Gold Glove awards, perfect game, etc...). Sadly, none of that is enough to warrant induction for this popular soft tossing southpaw.

Zito: Came on to the scene like gangbusters as 1/3 of Oakland's famed Big 3 in the early oughts. As later years would later reveal, there is just not enough performance for voters to seriously consider. However, I understand that he's a heck of a surfer/guitarist.

Lee: Assembled a very nice career, but other than his astounding 2008/2011 campaigns, he is on the wrong side of 35 to hit any career milestones voters know and love. There is a long line of pitchers over the years with one or two great seasons. Lee's will not supercede theirs.

Hamels: Another fall hero, but also another not to have put up enough numbers otherwise. The no-no is always cool to talk about, but ultimately, he will fall short.

Happ: Just making sure you are still with me here.

Sale: Excellent early pace to his career. Already an elite power pitcher. The usual injury disclaimer notwithstanding, there is no reason why he won't be a household name in short order. Don't see the all around supremacy of Kershaw, but has every opportunity to carve out an otherwise terrific career.

Several others could be discussed, but I won't at this time.

Thanks to the OP for bringing up a fun topic.

You and your southpaws! The only time I wish Felix was a lefty is when I see breakdowns like these :)
 

cjedmonton

Well-known member
Sep 20, 2009
1,890
313
Great White North
How about the current Saves leaders? None seem to come to mind as Lock HOFers...

Kimbrel has been mentioned, but K-Rod deserves a closer look. Approaching 400 saves, and has the neat title of being the single season saves leader.

Modern 1 inning relievers aren't taken as seriously as their predecessors, unless thy name is Mariano.
 

cjedmonton

Well-known member
Sep 20, 2009
1,890
313
Great White North
[MENTION=2055]metallicalex777[/MENTION]

Her's a Felix tidbit just for you!

Felix has the 4th most strikeouts through his age 29 season of all time. You may have heard of the 3 ahead of him: Walter Johnson, Sam McDowell (premier power pitcher of the late 60s/early 70s), Bert Blyleven.

In fact, of the top 25 strikeout totals through age 29, only 4 did not make the HOF: McDowell, Gooden, Clemens, Valenzuela (Hernandez, Sabathia, Kershaw are all still active).

Translation...strikeouts matter.

I certainly like King Felix's odds.
 
Last edited:

Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
9,446
168
[MENTION=2055]metallicalex777[/MENTION]

Her's a Felix tidbit just for you!

Felix has the 4th most strikeouts through his age 29 season of all time. You may have heard of the 3 ahead of him: Walter Johnson, Sam McDowell (premier power pitcher of the late 60s/early 70s), Bert Blyleven.

In fact, of the top 25 strikeout totals through age 29, only 4 did not make the HOF: McDowell, Gooden, Clemens, Valenzuela (Hernandez, Sabathia, Kershaw are all still active).

Translation...strikeouts matter.

I certainly like King Felix's odds.

Wow that puts his career in perspective. I am a bit concerned having our so mileage on that he may decline earlier than some others. Hope not...
 
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