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Topnotchsy
Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
- Aug 7, 2008
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Spent a bit of time thinking about this and I think it makes for some really interesting conversation since there aren't too many really clear answers. With roughly 60 pitchers in the HOF, and each HOF pitcher pitching on average 15-20 seasons or so, you would expect there to be around 10 future HOFers pitching at any point in time. Obviously a couple of may be relievers, and some will be so early in their careers that it is silly to try to project. Looking around the league though, it's surprising how hard it was to come up with names.
If you look at the list of active players with the most wins (I pulled this from Baseball-Reference and posted it below) it doesn't seem like a ton of guys warrant consideration. #1 is Tim Hudson who is retiring, so he'll stay at 222 wins. He's near 100 wins over .500 but his stats definitely don't scream HOF. In the top 5, I don't think anyone is really considering Colon, Buehrle, Lackey or Zito (the last 2 are tied for 5th) for the Hall. Sabathia may get a bit of thought, as he's got a Cy Young and a few other top 5 finishes, but his ERA is not great, and he looks close to finished where he is at 214 wins.
Moving through the rest of the top 10 the number of wins are down in the 150 area, so a really long way from HOF consideration. The first real candidate would appear to be Justin Verlander. But looking at Verlander's career stats it's hard for me not to think that he's someone who has not been as good as people seem to remember. He won lots of games as a rookie (winning ROY) but did so with a decent, but not great ERA. Later in his career he had 2 absolutely dominant seasons (winning the Cy Young and MVP in 2011 and finishing second in the Cy Young race in 2012. Outside of that he's been a solid, but not great pitcher. This is reflected in his ERA+ (a stat that looks at ERA compared to the league average and adjusts based on ballpark. Someone with a 100 ERA+ has the same ERA as the average in the league. 110 is 10% better etc.) Verlander's ERA+ for his career (so including his 2 great seasons) is 121, meaning that for his career his ERA is 21% better than league average. It's a decent number, but nothing special. To compare, Tim Hudson's is 120, CC Sabathia's 117, so very similar. Cole Hamels is at 124. And Verlander this season looked like he's on the downside of his career (although he ended the year strong.) He could still make a run, but he likely needs a minimum of 60-80 more wins to warrant consideration. Not sure he can do that.
Finally at numbers 14-16 we have some interesting candidates. None of these guys have 150 wins yet, so still a ways a way, but some of the top pitchers of the last few seasons.
Felix Hernandex has 143 wins, and at age 29, seems to be young enough to rack up enough wins to warrant consideration. Hernandez has been pitching seemingly forever since he broke into the league as a teenager. His win/loss record 143-101 is not great, but he's always been someone who has led the charge for the "wins and loses are misleading" team. His ERA+ of 127 is a bit better than the previous group and in line with pitchers in the Hall or who are considered for the Hall (Seaver and Schilling have the same ERA+). In my eyes he's the first player on this list with a reasonably high likelihood of making the Hall.
Cliff Lee also has 143 wins. He has a winning percentage over .600 and has a Cy Young to his name but at 35, may not even reach 200 wins.
Next with 142 wins is Zack Greinke. Greinke just finished a historic season, and its not the first one he has had. His ERA of 1.66 was one of the lowest since the deadball era and was good for a 225 ERA+ (meaning his ERA was an insane 125% better than league average.) This was not the first time he has been better than double league average. In his Cy Young 2009 campaign he had a 205 ERA+. These represent 2 of the absolute best seasons by anyone in the laast 15 years or so and should mean he has 2 Cy Young Awards for his mantle.
Counting against him are a number of factors. Greinke is in his 30's so it's unclear how many great seasons he has left. And outside of the 2 historic seasons, he has been a very good, but not great pitcher. With those 2 seasons included his ERA+ is 123. Solid, but not HOF worthy. Although he's had his best extended stretch since joining LA.
No one else in the top 20 really warrants discussion.
Other names that warrant consideration include Adam Wainwright, whose ERA+ of 133 is second highest of any active player, but because he began his career at 25 and has missed basically 2 full seasons due to injury, it is hard to imagine he will get the wins he needs (he's at 121.) He does have a career ERA under 3 which is highly impressive.
David Price has over 100 wins and is not yet 30. He's won a Cy Young and finished 2nd once, and could finish in the top 2 this season, but he's been inconsistent season to season.
Johny Cueto had 4 seasons in a row in Cincinnati with an ERA under 3 (and was doing the same this season before the trade) but I don't think he's reached a point that anyone sees him as a real legit candidate to one day make the Hall.
Max Scherzer has a Cy Young Award under his belt and pitched 2 no-hitters this season, but he's 30 with just 105 wins. He's a long way from really being in the discussion for now.
It looks like the only other guy really worth discussing (unless I forgot someone) is Clayton Kershaw. At 27 years old he already has 3 Cy Young Awards (probably should have won 4, as he was a better pitcher the year RA Dickey won the Award.) He has an MVP, 2 seasons with a sub-2 ERA, a 300 K season and a career ERA+ of 154 (tied with Pedro Martinez as the best ever, although Pedro did it over 18 seasons and Kershaw is at 8, so he has a long way to go.) He may very well be the only pitcher whose current resume warrants the Hall already (while the counting totals are low, the sheer dominance is almost unmatched in history.
At a time when pitching is seeing a resurgence we should expect to see some more names join this list in the next few seasons. Pitchers like Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Gerrit Cole, Jacob DeGrom, Jake Arrieta, Sonny Gray and Chris Archer are just some of the guys who show they have what it takes. Still, it is interesting to consider that over the last decade, almost no one has been able to sustain the level of performance needed to make the Hall. Makes you appreciate guys like Pedro, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and others a little more.
Most Career Wins by an Active Player
If you look at the list of active players with the most wins (I pulled this from Baseball-Reference and posted it below) it doesn't seem like a ton of guys warrant consideration. #1 is Tim Hudson who is retiring, so he'll stay at 222 wins. He's near 100 wins over .500 but his stats definitely don't scream HOF. In the top 5, I don't think anyone is really considering Colon, Buehrle, Lackey or Zito (the last 2 are tied for 5th) for the Hall. Sabathia may get a bit of thought, as he's got a Cy Young and a few other top 5 finishes, but his ERA is not great, and he looks close to finished where he is at 214 wins.
Moving through the rest of the top 10 the number of wins are down in the 150 area, so a really long way from HOF consideration. The first real candidate would appear to be Justin Verlander. But looking at Verlander's career stats it's hard for me not to think that he's someone who has not been as good as people seem to remember. He won lots of games as a rookie (winning ROY) but did so with a decent, but not great ERA. Later in his career he had 2 absolutely dominant seasons (winning the Cy Young and MVP in 2011 and finishing second in the Cy Young race in 2012. Outside of that he's been a solid, but not great pitcher. This is reflected in his ERA+ (a stat that looks at ERA compared to the league average and adjusts based on ballpark. Someone with a 100 ERA+ has the same ERA as the average in the league. 110 is 10% better etc.) Verlander's ERA+ for his career (so including his 2 great seasons) is 121, meaning that for his career his ERA is 21% better than league average. It's a decent number, but nothing special. To compare, Tim Hudson's is 120, CC Sabathia's 117, so very similar. Cole Hamels is at 124. And Verlander this season looked like he's on the downside of his career (although he ended the year strong.) He could still make a run, but he likely needs a minimum of 60-80 more wins to warrant consideration. Not sure he can do that.
Finally at numbers 14-16 we have some interesting candidates. None of these guys have 150 wins yet, so still a ways a way, but some of the top pitchers of the last few seasons.
Felix Hernandex has 143 wins, and at age 29, seems to be young enough to rack up enough wins to warrant consideration. Hernandez has been pitching seemingly forever since he broke into the league as a teenager. His win/loss record 143-101 is not great, but he's always been someone who has led the charge for the "wins and loses are misleading" team. His ERA+ of 127 is a bit better than the previous group and in line with pitchers in the Hall or who are considered for the Hall (Seaver and Schilling have the same ERA+). In my eyes he's the first player on this list with a reasonably high likelihood of making the Hall.
Cliff Lee also has 143 wins. He has a winning percentage over .600 and has a Cy Young to his name but at 35, may not even reach 200 wins.
Next with 142 wins is Zack Greinke. Greinke just finished a historic season, and its not the first one he has had. His ERA of 1.66 was one of the lowest since the deadball era and was good for a 225 ERA+ (meaning his ERA was an insane 125% better than league average.) This was not the first time he has been better than double league average. In his Cy Young 2009 campaign he had a 205 ERA+. These represent 2 of the absolute best seasons by anyone in the laast 15 years or so and should mean he has 2 Cy Young Awards for his mantle.
Counting against him are a number of factors. Greinke is in his 30's so it's unclear how many great seasons he has left. And outside of the 2 historic seasons, he has been a very good, but not great pitcher. With those 2 seasons included his ERA+ is 123. Solid, but not HOF worthy. Although he's had his best extended stretch since joining LA.
No one else in the top 20 really warrants discussion.
Other names that warrant consideration include Adam Wainwright, whose ERA+ of 133 is second highest of any active player, but because he began his career at 25 and has missed basically 2 full seasons due to injury, it is hard to imagine he will get the wins he needs (he's at 121.) He does have a career ERA under 3 which is highly impressive.
David Price has over 100 wins and is not yet 30. He's won a Cy Young and finished 2nd once, and could finish in the top 2 this season, but he's been inconsistent season to season.
Johny Cueto had 4 seasons in a row in Cincinnati with an ERA under 3 (and was doing the same this season before the trade) but I don't think he's reached a point that anyone sees him as a real legit candidate to one day make the Hall.
Max Scherzer has a Cy Young Award under his belt and pitched 2 no-hitters this season, but he's 30 with just 105 wins. He's a long way from really being in the discussion for now.
It looks like the only other guy really worth discussing (unless I forgot someone) is Clayton Kershaw. At 27 years old he already has 3 Cy Young Awards (probably should have won 4, as he was a better pitcher the year RA Dickey won the Award.) He has an MVP, 2 seasons with a sub-2 ERA, a 300 K season and a career ERA+ of 154 (tied with Pedro Martinez as the best ever, although Pedro did it over 18 seasons and Kershaw is at 8, so he has a long way to go.) He may very well be the only pitcher whose current resume warrants the Hall already (while the counting totals are low, the sheer dominance is almost unmatched in history.
At a time when pitching is seeing a resurgence we should expect to see some more names join this list in the next few seasons. Pitchers like Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Gerrit Cole, Jacob DeGrom, Jake Arrieta, Sonny Gray and Chris Archer are just some of the guys who show they have what it takes. Still, it is interesting to consider that over the last decade, almost no one has been able to sustain the level of performance needed to make the Hall. Makes you appreciate guys like Pedro, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and others a little more.
Most Career Wins by an Active Player
1. | Tim Hudson (17, 39) | 222 | R |
2. | Bartolo Colon (18, 42) | 218 | R |
3. | Mark Buehrle (16, 36) | 214 | L |
| CC Sabathia (15, 34) | 214 | L |
5. | John Lackey (13, 36) | 165 | R |
| Barry Zito (15, 37) | 165 | L |
7. | A.J. Burnett (17, 38) | 164 | R |
8. | Justin Verlander (11, 32) | 157 | R |
9. | Freddy Garcia (15, 38) | 156 | R |
10. | Dan Haren (13, 34) | 153 | R |
11. | Kyle Lohse (15, 36) | 147 | R |
Jake Peavy (14, 34) | 147 | R | |
13. | Bronson Arroyo (15, 38) | 145 | R |
14. | Felix Hernandez (11, 29) | 143 | R |
Cliff Lee (13, 36) | 143 | L | |
16. | Zack Greinke (12, 31) | 142 | R |
17. | Jered Weaver (10, 32) | 138 | R |
18. | Randy Wolf (16, 38) | 133 | L |
19. | Aaron Harang (14, 37) | 128 | R |
20. | Jon Lester (10, 31) | 127 | L |
| James Shields (10, 33) | 127 | R |