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When Your Favorite 90's Insert Costs $43,000

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mouschi

Featured Contributor, Bridging the Gap, Senior Mem
May 18, 2012
3,105
170
Imagine this:


You are at the counter of your favorite baseball card shop, gazing at all of the boxes of wax packs with tags cut out pieces of neon cardboard displaying the price of each.


Topps? Nah...


Donruss? Maybe next week...


Fleer? Hmmm...


Fleer Ultra? BING!


You grab a handful of packs of 1996 Ultra, hoping and praying to get a gold medallion card of your favorite player. Or maybe a sweet insert of what favorite player. What if it were a ... *GASP* Gold Medallion of said sweet insert???


Packs in hand, you rush home in hopes of landing a gold medallion insert of your favorite player. Knowing you have better odds of hitting a unicorn on your bike on the way home, you still hold out hope.


Fast forward to today, I guess, I never really paid much attention to the odds of pulling these from packs. While I wasn't particularly a fan of the base design, Ultra had a number of great inserts.


Let's break this down a bit here: (As I was researching and writing this article, I found an interesting article that had already broken down some of this here, so apparently I'm not the only one who has taken notice of this: http://www.radicards.com/reviews/1996-ultra-hitting-machines-gold-medallion-baseball-cards)


- There were both series one packs and series two packs. Each series had 300 cards.
- The cost per pack was $1.50 each.


Odds of pulling a gold medallion card?


One per pack. Odds of pulling this Jeter? 1 per 300 packs. Working alone at pack busting, that would put you at having to pay $450 to finally land the card of your dreams. (Don't worry - you could probably make a thousand base sets while you are at it!)


75a9dc227ef0d7df2cbc852e905408b9.jpg



What about this beauty? 1996 Ultra Thunderclap. Seeded in 1 of every 72 packs, it is tougher to grab. Being a 20 card set, it may take you 1,440 packs to hit this bad boy. Cost? $2,160.


$_1.JPG



Let's move to a more difficult insert set. Hitting Machine! Beautiful, right? Absolutely. One of these inserts could be yours at the rate of one every 288 packs. As this is a 10 card set, you *only* would have to open 2,880 packs to get it. Cost? $4,320


s-l300.jpg



But what about a Gold Medallion Thunder Clap? At 1 every 720 packs, you are getting near unicorn level here. With 20 cards in the set, it may take you opening up 14,400 packs to find this card! Cost? $21,600.


1996-fleer-ultra-cal-ripken-jr-thunderclap-insert-very-rare-17-orioles-2b6da9e3c25e039d3d5fef7e789a0ff3.jpg



Last, but not least ... the big daddy. 1996 Ultra Gold Medallion Hitting Machine. Personally, I like the design on the Thunder Clap much better, but I can see how these may be more coveted. These were MUCH more difficult to get. At 1 out of every 2,880 packs (WHOA!), you To hit your favorite player in this 10 card set, you can expect to open 28,800 packs!!!! The cost? $43,200.


perfect (2).jpg



I don't know about you, but over 43 grand to open packs to find the card you want is a LOT of money to me. Could you imagine how long that would take to open 28,800 packs #ifyouarentbrentandbecca ? We are talking 345,600 1996 Fleer Ultra cards being opened. I wonder how many they actually made?


Today, many of these cards are available online, and many of the super stars can be found for $3-40 each (yes, even the Gold Medallion Hitting Machine cards!) Well ... except for the Griffey. That one seems to fetch $300-400 nowadays. But in light of the fact that $43,000 worth of packs had to have been opened to get it, doesn't that seem like a bargain?


Aside from gawking at the cost of how many packs it took to have been opened to find a particular card, the greatest thing that I get out of all of this is a significantly heightened sense of appreciation for the "tough pulls" in my collection.


In 2016, we can easily grab the serial numbered cards out of 25, 10 and even 5 if we are quick enough to eBay once the breakers start to cracking. There is something special though, about finding cards that were tough pulls from 20 years ago, preBay (see what I did there?) and imagining all the money that exchanged hands and the path it took to get into your collection. For the player collector of someone in the Hitting Machine Gold Medallion parallel set, just imagine having 1,200 boxes of 1996 Fleer Ultra, and only being able to reasonable expect ONE of your favorite player.


1,200 boxes!


To me, that is diamond mining and the visual of having your man cave stuffed with unopened boxes just to get to the ONE card you wanted adds much needed significance to a card that otherwise would just be sitting in your box with no significance beyond book value. It gives each card a fuller story of how it made its way to your collection aside from the usual backstory of "I saw it on eBay, clicked buy it now and it showed up in my mail box 3 days later."


Hopefully this helps give you a new sense of appreciation for your collection again - whether each card was easily found at one per pack, or one per 30,000 packs.
 

gracecollector

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
6,559
215
Lake in the Hills, IL
Well when you are actually getting 345,600 cards, I don't think you can say the Griffey cost $43000. Plus all your numbers are worse case scenario. Half the time, you'd hit the Griffey spending $21500 or less. Given all the cards you receive, $300-$400 seems high to me for the Griffey.

Gold medallion inserts are fun to chase. And good write up on the odds, it does give you an appreciation of scarcity.

Sent from my A1-860 using Tapatalk
 

viper

New member
Dec 12, 2015
252
1
Ohio
Excellent write up and observation @mouschi.

griffey gold hr king.jpg

Let's not forget this bad boy at 1:9000 packs
 
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Therion

Well-known member
Nov 19, 2008
5,787
398
Looooooosiana!
This article is failing to account for the statistical likelihood that you start pulling doubles instead of a new card. It would likely be much more expensive to make the set.
 

Hawk8

Well-known member
Jul 13, 2013
8,400
267
Louisiana
That is why no matter how much of that product I busted I couldn't hit the Dawson Thunderclap Gold Medallion, but I did pull the Griffey Thunderclap Gold Medallion. Back then I would have traded it straight up for the Dawson.
 

viper

New member
Dec 12, 2015
252
1
Ohio
That is why no matter how much of that product I busted I couldn't hit the Dawson Thunderclap Gold Medallion, but I did pull the Griffey Thunderclap Gold Medallion. Back then I would have traded it straight up for the Dawson.

I'm looking for the Griffey Thunderclap GM. There's one on eBay for $500.... That's WAY too much for that card. As usual, I'll have to wait it out for another to show up for bidding.
 

Hawk8

Well-known member
Jul 13, 2013
8,400
267
Louisiana
I'm looking for the Griffey Thunderclap GM. There's one on eBay for $500.... That's WAY too much for that card. As usual, I'll have to wait it out for another to show up for bidding.

I still have the one I pulled back in 96
 

mouschi

Featured Contributor, Bridging the Gap, Senior Mem
May 18, 2012
3,105
170
That is why no matter how much of that product I busted I couldn't hit the Dawson Thunderclap Gold Medallion, but I did pull the Griffey Thunderclap Gold Medallion. Back then I would have traded it straight up for the Dawson.

I hear ya - I don't think I have ever pulled an awesome Canseco from anything ... ever!
 

mouschi

Featured Contributor, Bridging the Gap, Senior Mem
May 18, 2012
3,105
170
I hit a couple "Hot packs" where every card was Gold Medallion. Nothing worth big money, all commons.

I remember buying a hobby box of 2010 Upper Deck where every pack had a game used card. I was pretty thrilled ... I think I still barely broke even, lol!
 

viper

New member
Dec 12, 2015
252
1
Ohio
I've pulled a couple game used cards (Piazza, Clemens, Thomas) and a couple of never made it autographs from packs back when I was collecting heavy. But, the best pull was a Griffey Black Diamond Single Bat card. I was thrilled. I still have my Griffey card and all the others, but now they aren't worth much monetary wise.

I did pull a 94 Favre Refractor and traded it for my first 89 Griffey UD.


I have never had any luck pulling anything great from packs. I guess I could spend a few hundred on some 2015 high end Topps packs and see what I get.... Probably nothing though....
 
Dec 4, 2008
607
3
Was looking for the Griffey Thunderclap GM on ebay...didn't see it when I looked just now. But here are some interesting thoughts in re: 1995 & 1996 Ultra Gold Meds and rarity: The 1996 Ultra Hitting Machines were included in both Hobby AND Retail S2 packs. So while the HM golds are tough at 1:2880 for any card in the set, let's look at the Thunder Claps. Those were 1:720 packs for any card in the set and with 20 cards, the HM's were only 2x tougher to pull any given card (1:720 x 20 cards vs 1:2880 x 10 cards). The HR King golds also cited in this threads (1:750 packs x 12 cards) is also quite rare but a distant 3rd place as they were in both Hobby AND Retail packs so you similarly see a LOT of those hit the bay.

However, the distribution of hobby vs. retail is key. Not sure what the production runs were on each, retail vs. hobby, but the retail that was opened will be highly dispersed and with a greater % of novice (kid) collectors. Part of why you see the Hitting Machines hit ebay with much greater frequency vs. the Thunder Clap. I mean hell, there have been 6 Griffey HM Golds that sold on ebay in just the past 2+ months. Those all went at $400-500 (one at $330 BIN). I would totally peg the Thunderclap in that price range. Congrats on that pull from back in the day!

I recently bought out a Rafael Palmeiro collection which had both the Thunderclap & Hitting Machines Golds and that got me more interested in these sets. One of my favorites from the 1990's for sure. I just started using worthpoint for my market research and have noted very few Thunderclap golds sold historically. Super tough cards.

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I'm looking for the Griffey Thunderclap GM. There's one on eBay for $500.... That's WAY too much for that card. As usual, I'll have to wait it out for another to show up for bidding.
 

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viper

New member
Dec 12, 2015
252
1
Ohio
A Griffey HM GM just popped up on the bay.... $579.... :eek:

I offered $400 and was immediately shot down. Oh well... I want the card, but not that bad.

If anyone has one to sell, I have a standing offer of $400 for the HM GM and $200 for the Thunderclap GM.
 

RStadlerASU22

Active member
Jan 2, 2013
8,881
11
A Griffey HM GM just popped up on the bay.... $579.... :eek:

I offered $400 and was immediately shot down. Oh well... I want the card, but not that bad.

If anyone has one to sell, I have a standing offer of $400 for the HM GM and $200 for the Thunderclap GM.
[MENTION=10405]Hawk8[/MENTION] ... Enough motivation ?

Ryan
 

Joey_peapod

Active member
Jan 27, 2014
687
30
A Griffey HM GM just popped up on the bay.... $579.... :eek:

I offered $400 and was immediately shot down. Oh well... I want the card, but not that bad.

If anyone has one to sell, I have a standing offer of $400 for the HM GM and $200 for the Thunderclap GM.


Both solid offers. Why anyone would not take $400 on that hitting machines is beyond me. Even when they got hot last year they where getting $350 then dropped back into the $200 range.

The he thunderclap I got $250 for mine at auction but then that one dropped back into the $90 range. I would def wait if you can't get one with those offers
 

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