What do you make of the rise in price on 2000 TT Miggy Auto?

I've watched it play out, and was wondering what others think.

Over the last couple of years, the price on the biggest modern RC cards in the hobby have taken rough rides, despite player performance. Key rookie autographs of Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and David Wright amongst others (cards that were some of the absolute hottest in the hobby for a number of years) all saw serious declines. The potential that many saw in RC Auto's of guys who looked like they'd be stars for a long time seemed to disappear, as people were unwilling to pay the higher prices.

Over the off-season this winter, Cabrera's Topps Traded Auto was as low as it has been for a number of years, falling down to $250 or so. At the same time, other key RC Auto's were down tremendously.

A week into the season though, and the price had gone up from $250, to $450. Miggy was raking and prices were going up, but much more than that, it seemed like for the first time in ages, people were again recognizing the long term potential of these cards, and were willing to put down the money. The jump seems ridiculous on the surface, but once considered in a historical perspective (they once hit $800 per, and Miggy has done nothing to make people believe he will not wind up as an all-time great hitter) it seems like it's a bit of a correction.

I've seen increases on Pujols RC Auto's as well, though not quite as large (Pujols has not been quite as hot as Miggy) and think that this seems to be a change of mindset from the last couple of years, and we could start seeing increased prices on some of the "big" cards that have been cheap for a while.

Just my thought. Would love to hear what others think, especially on explaining the increase in prices on the 2000 Topps Traded Miguel Cabrera Autograph.

Yep, I certainly think that the RC autos of the higherend guys are bound to pick up. Despite knowing Miggy would see increases as he was underrated (and still is), I didn't pick up even one TT and am now kicking myself!

I think David Wright's Chrome Autos will also see a price increase in the near future, but he's started off the season w/ not so great stats (at least, from what we're used to seeing from him).

i hope they go back down to 250 again, or else i wont be able to add more to my collection

coltsfan23 said:

Yep, I certainly think that the RC autos of the higherend guys are bound to pick up. Despite knowing Miggy would see increases as he was underrated (and still is), I didn't pick up even one TT and am now kicking myself!

I think David Wright's Chrome Autos will also see a price increase in the near future, but he's started off the season w/ not so great stats (at least, from what we're used to seeing from him).

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I think there's this underlying feeling about high-end RC Auto's of established guys. They were in vogue a couple of years ago, and I think the recession hurt them. I think they are now on their way back to some degree, and I agree 100% about Wright (as my signature indicates.)

It's simple, baseball season has started, and he's doing well.

It's the same reason all the bowman wax products went up $10-$20 more per box on average across the board for no apparent reason.

Topnotchsy said:

coltsfan23 said:

Yep, I certainly think that the RC autos of the higherend guys are bound to pick up. Despite knowing Miggy would see increases as he was underrated (and still is), I didn't pick up even one TT and am now kicking myself!

I think David Wright's Chrome Autos will also see a price increase in the near future, but he's started off the season w/ not so great stats (at least, from what we're used to seeing from him).

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I think there's this underlying feeling about high-end RC Auto's of established guys. They were in vogue a couple of years ago, and I think the recession hurt them. I think they are now on their way back to some degree, and I agree 100% about Wright (as my signature indicates.)

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Yeah, I certainly agree that various investors believe that since they are already established, there's is little chance of them seeing future price gains and that they would rather move onto prospects. The thing is that investing in highend established guys is that sometimes one needs to wait for half a season to a full year for it to pay off. I'm rather used to buying and selling investments rather quickly, so sometimes, while the rate of return on investing in say Pujols might be greater than investing in a bunch of other players, the time it takes to hold that investment might not be worth it. With the cycle of flipping, one might be able to overall make more money by not investing in highend guys, purely because of the time it might take for it to mature as an investment.

Now if I had a full-time job and had thousands a month to spend, that'd be a different story. Then my point would be moot and one could very easily do both.

brouthercard said:

It's simple, baseball season has started, and he's doing well.

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While it would be nice to simplify everything, how do you explain the fact that last season Pujols' rookie autographs dropped during his MVP season? Also, how do you explain a jump of close to 100% on an established player in about a week? Those things are not simply the result of baseball season starting, and his playing well.

coltsfan23 said:

Yeah, I certainly agree that various investors believe that since they are already established, there's is little chance of them seeing future price gains and that they would rather move onto prospects. The thing is that investing in highend established guys is that sometimes one needs to wait for half a season to a full year for it to pay off. I'm rather used to buying and selling investments rather quickly, so sometimes, while the rate of return on investing in say Pujols might be greater than investing in a bunch of other players, the time it takes to hold that investment might not be worth it. With the cycle of flipping, one might be able to overall make more money by not investing in highend guys, purely because of the time it might take for it to mature as an investment.

Now if I had a full-time job and had thousands a month to spend, that'd be a different story. Then my point would be moot and one could very easily do both.

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I've invested both ways over time, and based on my experiences and talking to many others, when one actually starts calculating the profits they made on the few players they flipped as a percentage of all the prospects they bought (including all the busts who never end up being worth much) in many cases the established guys (when invested in smartly) offer better returns. I'm sure one who is really knowledgeable about the minors could do better with the highly volatile market that is the minors, though I think many would be surprised if they calculated percentage profits out of their entire inventory. I also find that often with prospects, if you miss the 15 minute window you missed your chance, and that's something I have a hard time with.

This is not really the main point of discussion here, but those are my thoughts.

I think you are trying to draw blood from a stone here. There is no definitive reason or formula for your observation(s). It just is what it is. The card market has always been fickel with monie(s) pooling from one thing to the next. The fact the season has started and exposure is being gained has as much to do with it as anything.

matfanofold said:

I think you are trying to draw blood from a stone here. There is no definitive reason or formula for your observation(s). It just is what it is. The card market has always been fickel with monie(s) pooling from one thing to the next. The fact the season has started and exposure is being gained has as much to do with it as anything.

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Never heard the term "blood from a stone" before.

What you say is true, there is no definitive reason. That said, I do think that there are often large trends and the market has an ebb and flow to it, that can be understood to a certain degree. Is my hypothesis here accurate? I like to think there's some truth to it. What does it lead me to expect? Well I think that for guys like Wright, Pujols, Howard and a few others, if they do really well there's a much better chance of price increases this season than there was last season. Will it play out that way? Guess we'll wait and see.

Topnotchsy said:

matfanofold said:

I think you are trying to draw blood from a stone here. There is no definitive reason or formula for your observation(s). It just is what it is. The card market has always been fickel with monie(s) pooling from one thing to the next. The fact the season has started and exposure is being gained has as much to do with it as anything.

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Never heard the term "blood from a stone" before.

What you say is true, there is no definitive reason. That said, I do think that there are often large trends and the market has an ebb and flow to it, that can be understood to a certain degree. Is my hypothesis here accurate? I like to think there's some truth to it. What does it lead me to expect? Well I think that for guys like Wright, Pujols, Howard and a few others, if they do really well there's a much better chance of price increases this season than there was last season. Will it play out that way? Guess we'll wait and see.

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"Blood from a stone" is a quite common term, far outstretching any kind of local jargen, widely used to imply something as impossible and/or highly improbable. Such as the act of getting 'blood from a stone'. But I digress..

I do agree that there are trends at work here, but nothing outside the obvious. Start of the season, playing well, ect... But as you say, time will tell if key RC's of top tier players are indeed 'taking off'..

Topnotchsy said:

brouthercard said:

It's simple, baseball season has started, and he's doing well.

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While it would be nice to simplify everything, how do you explain the fact that last season Pujols' rookie autographs dropped during his MVP season? Also, how do you explain a jump of close to 100% on an established player in about a week? Those things are not simply the result of baseball season starting, and his playing well.

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The economy obviously also had an affect on this. How do you explain 2006 bowman draft boxes dropping in price despite a heating up of Longoria during the post season last year?
How do you explain an increase in 2007 bowman draft box prices for no apparent reason? Only a select few individuals can afford to buy a pujols chrome. With the presidential election looming, no one was making large investments into baseball cards, especially those that were already very expensive to begin with.

On ebay, it just takes two everyday joe guys to drive the price up of one baseball card, it's not like the stock market. Market manipulation is quite simple when you look at a commodity such as baseball cards and fluctuations in prices on ebay frankly don't mean too much - there is even greater variation of prices of certain baseball insert cards during the offseason with no particular explanation.

There are just simply too many variables involved that it would be impossible to pinpoint anything specifically, but in general, I have seen that card prices go up during the season because cards are more liquid during the season. Also cards of HOT players are also more liquid during the season, therefore that's why I gave my answer to make it simple and not have to babble TOO much!

brouthercard said:

The economy obviously also had an affect on this. How do you explain 2006 bowman draft boxes dropping in price despite a heating up of Longoria during the post season last year?
How do you explain an increase in 2007 bowman draft box prices for no apparent reason? Only a select few individuals can afford to buy a pujols chrome. With the presidential election looming, no one was making large investments into baseball cards, especially those that were already very expensive to begin with.

On ebay, it just takes two everyday joe guys to drive the price up of one baseball card, it's not like the stock market. Market manipulation is quite simple when you look at a commodity such as baseball cards and fluctuations in prices on ebay frankly don't mean too much - there is even greater variation of prices of certain baseball insert cards during the offseason with no particular explanation.

There are just simply too many variables involved that it would be impossible to pinpoint anything specifically, but in general, I have seen that card prices go up during the season because cards are more liquid during the season. Also cards of HOT players are also more liquid during the season, therefore that's why I gave my answer to make it simple and not have to babble TOO much!

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No question, I've been known to babble.

I do feel that if one can dig through the information and see the trends, they can be far better investors.

interesting

and the tables have turned again?

http://cgi.ebay.com/2000-Topps-Traded-M ... 7C294%3A50

^^^^

good buy for the prices they are going at right now

Definitely the start of the new season and the fact that he's hot. Also throw in that people may have little extra $'s with income tax refunds, etc. I usually see a slight increase in prices in the April/May timeframes with many people having some extra money with income tax refunds...I sure hope they continue to climb!

miguelcabrera said:

interesting

and the tables have turned again?

http://cgi.ebay.com/2000-Topps-Traded-M ... 7C294%3A50

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At the same time a BGS 8 went on a BO for $550, so I wouldn't put too much stock in a single auction.

This is exactly what I was thinking.

Its pretty easy to draw conclusions about pricing when the only variable to consider is player performance. But as we know investment occurs for a variety of reasons that have to do with baseball/baseball cards *and* for reasons not to do with baseball/baseball cards...some things just randomly happen.

matfanofold said:

I think you are trying to draw blood from a stone here. There is no definitive reason or formula for your observation(s). It just is what it is. The card market has always been fickel with monie(s) pooling from one thing to the next. The fact the season has started and exposure is being gained has as much to do with it as anything.

Click to expand...

Topnotchsy said:

miguelcabrera said:

interesting

and the tables have turned again?

http://cgi.ebay.com/2000-Topps-Traded-M ... 7C294%3A50

Click to expand...

At the same time a BGS 8 went on a BO for $550, so I wouldn't put too much stock in a single auction.

Click to expand...

a bgs 9 got 600 a few weeks back and the auction ended up getting a bid so it sold for 400, man these prices are making me want to sell one but i just cant do it

brouthercard said:

It's simple, baseball season has started, and he's doing well.

.

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+1

obviously if he didn't have such a great kickoff, his prices likely would still be hovering around 300...

Pujols has too many rookies, where miggy only has one "decent" rookie, added to the fact I think Pujols cards have peaked and won't return to all time highs, where I think if miggy can keep it going, can.