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Formula for comparing sluggers to speedsters

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Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
9,449
177
I posted this awhile back with little response, but I was hoping that this time around I'd get more feedback.

Very often we there are discussions regarding speedsters and the value of a stolen base as compared to the production that power hitters put up. OBP/SLG/OBS has become very popular recently, and the power hitters always have bigger numbers here.

I was thinking that a simple way to translate SB's into SLG and OPS was to add an extra base for every stolen base, and deduct for every caught stealing (1 base for a CS at 2nd, 2 bases for a CS at 3rd, 4 bases for a caught stealing at home.) I think this is a pretty accurate way of determining what an SB is worth within the context of OBP/SLG/OBS (while a single followed by an SB obviously does not advance other runners in the way a double might, OBP/SLG/OBS does not take into account other baserunners anyway.

I calculated for Carl Crawford (before tonight's game.)

Crawford came in to the game batting .322 with 10 doubles, 3 triples, a homer and 13 walks in 177 AB's.

This came to a: .373/.429/.802

Pretty solid, but it ignores his 25/25 on the bases.

Add those extra bases he's pilfered and the numbers jump to:

.373/.571/.944

Not bad at all!!

Thoughts?
 

19braves77

Active member
Oct 23, 2008
3,444
0
Pensacola, FL
Use this to find the true base stealers worth adjusting with your formula:

Speed = (100*SBr)+6*(SB%-CS%)+(300*3B/AB)-200*(GDP/AB) where SBr is stolen bases per times on first base.

This year is a crazy year for SB's so you need to use numbers for the past 3 years to find a true

Once you use that, you will find out that all burners plays shortstop, second base, or center field.

56.34 = Crazy Fast = 50+ SB
31.10= Burners= 30+ SB
-19.40= Base Cloggers= 80% of these players play 1st base or catcher
 

Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
9,449
177
19braves77 said:
Use this to find the true base stealers worth adjusting with your formula:

Speed = (100*SBr)+6*(SB%-CS%)+(300*3B/AB)-200*(GDP/AB) where SBr is stolen bases per times on first base.

This year is a crazy year for SB's so you need to use numbers for the past 3 years to find a true

Once you use that, you will find out that all burners plays shortstop, second base, or center field.

56.34 = Crazy Fast = 50+ SB
31.10= Burners= 30+ SB
-19.40= Base Cloggers= 80% of these players play 1st base or catcher
Interesting formula, though I'm not sure one could use it to compare speedsters to sluggers.
 

Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
9,449
177
One last bump and I'll give up.
 

Casey2884

New member
Aug 7, 2008
476
0
Manhattan
I assume you mean OPS (not "OBS") right? On-base-Plus-Slugging?

I like your idea, although I think that you should only deduct 1 point for each CS ... not discriminating by which base it is they get caught at. Likewise, you don't award more SB for stealing 3rd vs. 2nd ... or Home vs. 3rd ... so I think just a -1 for a CS would work better in your formula while also being less complex (not even sure where they keep specific "which base?" SB/CS stats outside of checking actual game logs).
 

Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
9,449
177
Casey2884 said:
I assume you mean OPS (not "OBS") right? On-base-Plus-Slugging?

I like your idea, although I think that you should only deduct 1 point for each CS ... not discriminating by which base it is they get caught at. Likewise, you don't award more SB for stealing 3rd vs. 2nd ... or Home vs. 3rd ... so I think just a -1 for a CS would work better in your formula while also being less complex (not even sure where they keep specific "which base?" SB/CS stats outside of checking actual game logs).
I did mean OPS.

My see it a tad differently. While stealing a base only gives you one base (regardless of whether it's from 1st to 2nd, 2nd to 3rd, or 3rd home) getting caught stealing 3rd negates a double, and therefore when calculating the "true value" of stolen bases, I would feel inclined to deduct the amount "lost" by a caught stealing.
 

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