NYTimes: Aroldis Chapman might be 26

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/03/sport ... %20&st=cse

Unfortunately, I wouldnt be suprised. Stinks that you have to worry about this with just about every foreign born player.

Here we go again folks. Next stop, Michael Ynoa.

If he is 26, the only thing it really hurts is his possible projection, but the guy already tops out at 100+, so are you really concerned about him filling out and gaining velocity? It might actually be a good thing, because pitchers usually peak later and young arms seem more likely to sustain injury, especially power arms. So if he's pitched this long in Cuba without suffering a major injury, then it might give you more confidence that he's durable. So if a team signs with him to a 4-5 year deal, which would they rather have, ages 22-27, or ages 27-31 while already showing he's durable?

Brett Keith said:

If he is 26, the only thing it really hurts is his possible projection, but the guy already tops out at 100+, so are you really concerned about him filling out and gaining velocity? It might actually be a good thing, because pitchers usually peak later and young arms seem more likely to sustain injury, especially power arms. So if he's pitched this long in Cuba without suffering a major injury, then it might give you more confidence that he's durable. So if a team signs with him to a 4-5 year deal, which would they rather have, ages 22-27, or ages 27-31 while already showing he's durable?

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Yeah but being 26 also hurts him in regards to developing secondary pitches. If all he has is a 100 MPH fastball and it looks like a straight pitch. He's nothing more than a left handed Kyle Farnsworth.

mwashuc06 said:

Brett Keith said:

If he is 26, the only thing it really hurts is his possible projection, but the guy already tops out at 100+, so are you really concerned about him filling out and gaining velocity? It might actually be a good thing, because pitchers usually peak later and young arms seem more likely to sustain injury, especially power arms. So if he's pitched this long in Cuba without suffering a major injury, then it might give you more confidence that he's durable. So if a team signs with him to a 4-5 year deal, which would they rather have, ages 22-27, or ages 27-31 while already showing he's durable?

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Yeah but being 26 also hurts him in regards to developing secondary pitches. If all he has is a 100 MPH fastball and it looks like a straight pitch. He's nothing more than a left handed Kyle Farnsworth.

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Eh, not really. I mean his secondary pitches need to be tightened up, whether he's 21 or 26. Being a little older wouldn't make it harder to do, unless he needs major work and a team was planning on him being a project for a handful of years. If that was the case this wouldn't be nearly as big of a deal, and people wouldn't be talking about the type of projected contract numbers they are. Even if he is 21, it's not like he's a baby in baseball terms, so if he was another Farnsworth I'd think people would know by now.

Brett Keith said:

If he is 26, the only thing it really hurts is his possible projection, but the guy already tops out at 100+, so are you really concerned about him filling out and gaining velocity? It might actually be a good thing, because pitchers usually peak later and young arms seem more likely to sustain injury, especially power arms. So if he's pitched this long in Cuba without suffering a major injury, then it might give you more confidence that he's durable. So if a team signs with him to a 4-5 year deal, which would they rather have, ages 22-27, or ages 27-31 while already showing he's durable?

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From what I have read about Chapman the word "potential" is used a lot when referring to him. A lot of people point out some negative things about him but back it up by saying, hes young and can learn. At 21, it should be a lot easier to mold him into something and know that you can start him slow and work him into a Major League pitcher. At 26, it probably as good as it gets for a guy. While throwing into the low 100's is great, he apparently doesnt have much of a breaking pitch. Unless they figure hes good enough right now to step in and pitch for a MLB team the earliest I would imagine he would pitch is 2 years and could potentially be 28 by then.

Also in the WBC he was able to control a 95 pitch consistently but the pitches that actually touched 98+ were pretty wild.

MallCopKJ said:

Brett Keith said:

If he is 26, the only thing it really hurts is his possible projection, but the guy already tops out at 100+, so are you really concerned about him filling out and gaining velocity? It might actually be a good thing, because pitchers usually peak later and young arms seem more likely to sustain injury, especially power arms. So if he's pitched this long in Cuba without suffering a major injury, then it might give you more confidence that he's durable. So if a team signs with him to a 4-5 year deal, which would they rather have, ages 22-27, or ages 27-31 while already showing he's durable?

Click to expand...

From what I have read about Chapman the word "potential" is used a lot when referring to him. A lot of people point out some negative things about him but back it up by saying, hes young and can learn. At 21, it should be a lot easier to mold him into something and know that you can start him slow and work him into a Major League pitcher. At 26, it probably as good as it gets for a guy. While throwing into the low 100's is great, he apparently doesnt have much of a breaking pitch. Unless they figure hes good enough right now to step in and pitch for a MLB team the earliest I would imagine he would pitch is 2 years and could potentially be 28 by then.

Also in the WBC he was able to control a 95 pitch consistently but the pitches that actually touched 98+ were pretty wild.

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Well I just don't buy that he's that raw and this sought after, even at 21. Buster Olney said a GM described both his slider and curve as "plus". Now, whether they're plus, or merely average with plus potential, I don't know, but I doubt people would talk like that if he was so raw that a handful of years would make a big difference. Besides, everybody knows the risk of rapid aging in latin prospects, espeically those from Cuba. If teams think he's two years away from the majors, the contract numbers being thrown out there are laughable anyway.

Worst case scenario: he could be the Cuban Oliver Perez

I have never heard of his secondary stuff being called a plus anything. All i've heard is "Jesus, he throws 100 MPH at 21 years old?! Forget his secondary stuff for now, we'll work with that!".

His other pitches aren't MLB average and this is going to hurt his stock big time. I just wonder how they can find this kid out but still can't pin down how many years Albert Pujols shaved.

So basically a team is paying for a 5th year senior plus 3 years in the minors.......

19braves77 said:

So basically a team is paying for a 5th year senior plus 3 years in the minors.......

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Yup, and?

Jose Contreras was 30 when signed, and got 4 years/32 million.

It might be better that we know his actual age, so now teams know exactly what they're getting.


Vagrant - That's because Pujols is 29. Just because a player is foreign does not mean they're lying about their age.

Skorris CCBC said:

That's because Pujols is 29. Just because a player is foreign does not mean they're lying about their age.

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Wait..when did you receive a copy of his birth certificate?!

Y4NK335 said:

Skorris CCBC said:

That's because Pujols is 29. Just because a player is foreign does not mean they're lying about their age.

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Wait..when did you receive a copy of his birth certificate?!

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It's my opinion. With clear conviction. He moved to Missouri when he was 16. He attended high school there. It's not like he was found playing on the ballfields on the DR. Not like he looks like an old guy either.

We'll see if he's still playing when he 40+ by your guys standards. I see him playing until 2018 at least, putting him at 38.

Also, it's funny how you guys don't care about all the other Dominican born players who are lesser known.

Skorris CCBC said:

Y4NK335 said:

[quote="Skorris CCBC":2f19whgg]

That's because Pujols is 29. Just because a player is foreign does not mean they're lying about their age.

Click to expand...

Wait..when did you receive a copy of his birth certificate?!

Click to expand...

It's my opinion. With clear conviction. He moved to Missouri when he was 16. He attended high school there. It's not like he was found playing on the ballfields on the DR. Not like he looks like an old guy either.

We'll see if he's still playing when he 40+ by your guys standards. I see him playing until 2018 at least, putting him at 38.

Also, it's funny how you guys don't care about all the other Dominican born players who are lesser known.[/quote:2f19whgg]

Some would disagree that Pujols looks old.....

One of my teammates from Purdue played with Pujols in the Jayhawk League when Pujols was supposed to be 19. My friend came back raving about this Pujols kid who was a great player, but looked like he was 30 years old....

Just my little story. I personally believe he is older than 29. But it doesn't really matter until he is 35 (really 38) when he starts to drop off.

skrip

ballerskrip said:

Skorris CCBC said:

Y4NK335 said:

[quote="Skorris CCBC":3cjx4ia0]

That's because Pujols is 29. Just because a player is foreign does not mean they're lying about their age.

Click to expand...

Wait..when did you receive a copy of his birth certificate?!

Click to expand...

It's my opinion. With clear conviction. He moved to Missouri when he was 16. He attended high school there. It's not like he was found playing on the ballfields on the DR. Not like he looks like an old guy either.

We'll see if he's still playing when he 40+ by your guys standards. I see him playing until 2018 at least, putting him at 38.

Also, it's funny how you guys don't care about all the other Dominican born players who are lesser known.

Click to expand...

Some would disagree that Pujols looks old.....

One of my teammates from Purdue played with Pujols in the Jayhawk League when Pujols was supposed to be 19. My friend came back raving about this Pujols kid who was a great player, but looked like he was 30 years old....

Just my little story. I personally believe he is older than 29. But it doesn't really matter until he is 35 (really 38) when he starts to drop off.

skrip[/quote:3cjx4ia0]

Like I said, Pujols moved to the US when he was 16. He had to go through the entire immigration process, making it even more harder to falsify his age. He then went to High School for 2 years, and played ball at Maple Woods CC.

When he moved to the US, he probably wasn't completely concerned with making the big leagues, having no reason to lie about his age.

You can easily look older than you are, or younger than you are. Look at Bryce Harper, LeBron James, or even Greg Oden. They all look significantly older than their age.

I'm not going to turn this into a picture thread of Pujols, but he looks like the age he's supposed to be in almost all pictures I've seen of him.

Skorris CCBC said:

ballerskrip said:

[quote="Skorris CCBC":30oc3r3q]

Y4NK335 said:

[quote="Skorris CCBC":30oc3r3q]

That's because Pujols is 29. Just because a player is foreign does not mean they're lying about their age.

Click to expand...

Wait..when did you receive a copy of his birth certificate?!

Click to expand...

It's my opinion. With clear conviction. He moved to Missouri when he was 16. He attended high school there. It's not like he was found playing on the ballfields on the DR. Not like he looks like an old guy either.

We'll see if he's still playing when he 40+ by your guys standards. I see him playing until 2018 at least, putting him at 38.

Also, it's funny how you guys don't care about all the other Dominican born players who are lesser known.

Click to expand...

Some would disagree that Pujols looks old.....

One of my teammates from Purdue played with Pujols in the Jayhawk League when Pujols was supposed to be 19. My friend came back raving about this Pujols kid who was a great player, but looked like he was 30 years old....

Just my little story. I personally believe he is older than 29. But it doesn't really matter until he is 35 (really 38) when he starts to drop off.

skrip[/quote:30oc3r3q]

Like I said, Pujols moved to the US when he was 16. He had to go through the entire immigration process, making it even more harder to falsify his age. He then went to High School for 2 years, and played ball at Maple Woods CC.

When he moved to the US, he probably wasn't completely concerned with making the big leagues, having no reason to lie about his age.

You can easily look older than you are, or younger than you are. Look at Bryce Harper, LeBron James, or even Greg Oden. They all look significantly older than their age.

I'm not going to turn this into a picture thread of Pujols, but he looks like the age he's supposed to be in almost all pictures I've seen of him.[/quote:30oc3r3q]

I don't know one way or the other, but I don't see how anyone can say he doesn't look older than his age. Like you say, it means very little. LeBron, and especially Oden look much older than they are.

On a related note....I wonder if physically maturing earlier like LeBron, Oden and Harper will also mean getting physically older earlier than someone their age would?

Update: BA says there's no evidence to support such a claim:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1303

Michael Inoa, Michael Ynoa. Which one is 16 and which one is 35.

It's not like it'll ever be confirmed anyway. Livan Hernandez is still getting away with being 34.

BA

Why would Cuba lie about a player’s age? Cuba doesn’t want to see its players defect. Lying about Chapman’s age to make him seem younger would have had a minor benefit for Cuba in trying to win the occasional age limited international tournament (although he’s been busy playing on the senior national team, not the age-limited teams), but it would also raise the likelihood that Chapman would defect for riches in the U.S.

imho, that makes a ton of sense.