A breakdown of Dan Haren's starts in 2008-2009

Everyone talks about the poor run support given to Dan Haren. I wanted to dig into it a little deeper...

Since 2008, if a team scores 6 or more runs in a game, they win 82.7% of the time (2550 times a team scored 6 or more runs, which is 34.0% of the time).
Since 2008, if a team scores 5 runs in a game, they win 63.5% of the time (860 times, which is 11.5% of the time).
Since 2008, if a team scores 4 runs in a game, they win 48.4% of the time (964 times, which is 12.9% of the time).
Since 2008, if a team scores 3 runs in a game, they win 35.3% of the time (1034 times, which is 13.8% of the time).
Since 2008, if a team scores 2 runs in a game, they win 21.0% of the time (939 times, which is 12.5% of the time).
Since 2008, if a team scores 1 runs in a game, they win 8.7% of the time (728 times, which is 9.7% of the time).
Since 2008, if a team scores 0 runs in a game, they win 0% of the time (419 times, which is 5.6% of the time).

That is 3747 games, or 7494 ending scores for a team.

Let's look at Dan Haren's starts from 2008 and 2009. He has had 51 starts in that time.
Starts where his team scored 6 or more runs: 19 (Diamondbacks are 19-0)
Starts where his team scored 5 runs: 6 (4-2)
Starts where his team scored 4 runs: 5 (4-1)
Starts where his team scored 3 runs: 6 (1-5)
Starts where his team scored 2 runs: 6 (3-3)
Starts where his team scored 1 runs: 5 (0-5)
Starts where his team scored 0 runs: 4 (0-4)

Based on the league average, the Diamondbacks should have been 26-25 in the games Haren started. They were 31-20.

Haren's team was 4-17 when his team scored 3 runs or less. That is 21 times in 51 starts (41.2%) where the Dbacks scored 3 or less runs. On average, a team scores 3 runs or less 41.6% of the time, so you can see that the Dbacks give him average run support in his starts. The league averages winning 20.0% of the time when scoring 3 runs or less, and Haren averages a win 19.0% of the time his team scores 3 runs or less. Again, this is consistent with the league average.

On the flip side, Haren's team was 27-3 (90.0% winning percentage) when the Dbacks score 4 or more runs. The league has a 71.4% winning percentage when it scores 4 or more runs, so Haren's winning percentage is MUCH higher than the league average. On average, the Dbacks should have won 21 of those games instead of 27.

Conclusion: Dan Haren doesn't suffer any more than the average pitcher when his team scores 3 runs or less, but is instead quite fortunate when his team scores 4 or more runs.


David

All I know is, in his first three starts of the season, all losses, the DBacks scored a grand total of one run. In his last loss, he lost 2-1 to Texas, giving up both runs over 7 innings. The only other loss of the season, he got one run of support vs the Reds. The losses aren't even as bad as the wins he didn't receive...On June 2nd, he gave up 2 hits and 1 run in 7 innings vs the Dodgers, left with a 5-1 lead, and then watched Dan Schlereth and Tony Pena implode as his lead vanished. Also, who could forget him leaving with a seemingly certain win in San Diego, only to watch David Eckstein hit a game-tying grand slam in the bottom of the ninth off Chad Qualls? Run support isn't everything - the pen has been just as responsible for Haren's less than impressive record. It's a miracle he's 9-5.

Amazing!

You know, I saw the title and thought "eh" but when I saw who started the thread I got all excited! It was a fascinating read and very informative, but mostly I am just consistantly blown away by your statistical prowess. Keep up the good work!

pujolsjunkie said:

All I know is, in his first three starts of the season, all losses, the DBacks scored a grand total of one run.

Click to expand...

The problem is that people look at a small sample size and make conclusions that aren't valid (Nick Esasky began the 1984 season with 12 RBIs in his team's first 7 games, but you couldn't conclude that he would finish the year with his projected 278 RBIs). This is even more apparent at the beginning of the season. 15.3% of the time, a team scores one run or zero runs. That means that during any part of any season, a pitcher has a 1 in 279 chance of pitching in 3 consecutive games where his team scores 1 run or less in each start. With 4-5 starters on every team, and 30 teams, that means 120-150 different starting pitchers are out there. That means that every two years (on average), one pitcher in baseball will make his first 3 starts of the year in which his team scores 1 run or less in each start. This was just Dan Haren's turn, and we all noticed it because he was suddenly 0-3 with a 1.89 ERA on April 17th.

These things all average out in most cases. In Haren's case, his average since 2008 shows that he has just as many games (with 3 runs or less scored by his team) as the league average. He started 51 games in that period. The league average says that his team will score 3 runs or less in 21 of them, which is exactly how many he had.

I made this post because I have heard many times lately about the poor run support that Haren has received, and I wanted to see how true that really was.

David

Didn't know the stats, good read (or well nice post).