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leatherman
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From 1954-2008, there have been 6880 times that a player qualified for the batting title. The median OPS+ was 109 (3414 seasons of OPS+ greater than 109, 3351 seasons of OPS+ less than 109, and 115 seasons equal to 109).
Let's look at the top 5% of the OPS+ seasons (which is the top 344 seasons). #332 through #357 have an OPS+ of 156, so I will use an OPS+ of 156 as the STANDARD for an elite season, with an elite season being defined as one of the top 5%. Since any season tied with #344 will be included, there will be 357 seasons total.
Age of players on June 30th in the 357 seasons where a player had an OPS+ of 156 or higher:
Age 20 - 2 (Al Kaline and Alex Rodriguez)
Age 21 - 2 (Albert Pujols and Cesar Cedeno)
Age 22 - 4 (Mickey Mantle, Boog Powell, Eddie Mathews, Dick Allen)
Age 23 - 18
Age 24 - 21
Age 25 - 29
Age 26 - 32
Age 27 - 33
Age 28 - 32
Age 29 - 34
Age 30 - 31
Age 31 - 30
Age 32 - 27
Age 33 - 19
Age 34 - 17
Age 35 - 7
Age 36 - 5
Age 37 - 7
Age 38 - 3 (Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Edgar Martinez)
Age 39 - 2 (Bonds, Williams)
Age 40 - 1 (Willie Mays)
This gives us a median age of 29 for the elite season, with the years of 25-32 being the most productive.
Let's look at the 88 times a player at least 32 years old has had an elite season. There have been eleven seasons with three 32+ year olds with an OPS+ of 156. Eight of those eleven seasons were the eight seasons from 1996-2003. There were 2 each in 2004 (Bonds and Jim Edmonds), 2005 (Carlos Delgado and Jason Giambi), 2007 (Magglio Ordonez and Chipper Jones), and 2008 (Chipper Jones and Lance Berkman), with one player in 2006 (Manny Ramirez). Remember, I am using 32 years old as the cutoff here, and you can see how hard it typically is for a 32+ year old to have an elite season.
If you clicked on the link above, you probably noticed that the list of players from 1996-2003 is made up primarily of those at the heart of the steroids accusations (and in some cases, confessions). I am NOT saying that, just because you are on the list from 1996-2003, you are a steroid user. What I am saying is that the list is crowded with steroid users, and the rarity of great seasons by older players gets overlooked because it has become commonplace.
I think the biggest advantage of steroid use was the ability for players to perform at their highest level of performance for a longer period of time, utilizing their knowledge of the game in a younger, stronger body. In the past, players had their career years from 25-32, but with steroid use, that period became from 25 and into their late 30s. Career milestones and records became reachable by players who would have otherwise been unable to attain them with the typical wearing down of the physical body. But, a player with the experience of a 36 year old, and the body of a 28 year old....well, we see the records that fell.
David
Let's look at the top 5% of the OPS+ seasons (which is the top 344 seasons). #332 through #357 have an OPS+ of 156, so I will use an OPS+ of 156 as the STANDARD for an elite season, with an elite season being defined as one of the top 5%. Since any season tied with #344 will be included, there will be 357 seasons total.
Age of players on June 30th in the 357 seasons where a player had an OPS+ of 156 or higher:
Age 20 - 2 (Al Kaline and Alex Rodriguez)
Age 21 - 2 (Albert Pujols and Cesar Cedeno)
Age 22 - 4 (Mickey Mantle, Boog Powell, Eddie Mathews, Dick Allen)
Age 23 - 18
Age 24 - 21
Age 25 - 29
Age 26 - 32
Age 27 - 33
Age 28 - 32
Age 29 - 34
Age 30 - 31
Age 31 - 30
Age 32 - 27
Age 33 - 19
Age 34 - 17
Age 35 - 7
Age 36 - 5
Age 37 - 7
Age 38 - 3 (Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Edgar Martinez)
Age 39 - 2 (Bonds, Williams)
Age 40 - 1 (Willie Mays)
This gives us a median age of 29 for the elite season, with the years of 25-32 being the most productive.
Let's look at the 88 times a player at least 32 years old has had an elite season. There have been eleven seasons with three 32+ year olds with an OPS+ of 156. Eight of those eleven seasons were the eight seasons from 1996-2003. There were 2 each in 2004 (Bonds and Jim Edmonds), 2005 (Carlos Delgado and Jason Giambi), 2007 (Magglio Ordonez and Chipper Jones), and 2008 (Chipper Jones and Lance Berkman), with one player in 2006 (Manny Ramirez). Remember, I am using 32 years old as the cutoff here, and you can see how hard it typically is for a 32+ year old to have an elite season.
If you clicked on the link above, you probably noticed that the list of players from 1996-2003 is made up primarily of those at the heart of the steroids accusations (and in some cases, confessions). I am NOT saying that, just because you are on the list from 1996-2003, you are a steroid user. What I am saying is that the list is crowded with steroid users, and the rarity of great seasons by older players gets overlooked because it has become commonplace.
I think the biggest advantage of steroid use was the ability for players to perform at their highest level of performance for a longer period of time, utilizing their knowledge of the game in a younger, stronger body. In the past, players had their career years from 25-32, but with steroid use, that period became from 25 and into their late 30s. Career milestones and records became reachable by players who would have otherwise been unable to attain them with the typical wearing down of the physical body. But, a player with the experience of a 36 year old, and the body of a 28 year old....well, we see the records that fell.
David
