Thoughts on Andre Ethier Red Xfractor BGS 9.5 purchase

I was scanning the auctions that were ending on eBay yesterday night and came across a 2005 Topps Chrome Andre Ethier Red Xfractor Auto /25 graded BGS 9.5. The minimum bid was $249.99 and I decided to bid because I've been impressed by Ethier and I think that card has a lot of potential. I think that I may have overpaid a bit but that is the only 9.5 in existance and you don't see many come up for sale.
Thoughts?

steve76 said:

I was scanning the auctions that were ending on eBay yesterday night and came across a 2005 Topps Chrome Andre Ethier Red Xfractor Auto /25 graded BGS 9.5. The minimum bid was $249.99 and I decided to bid because I've been impressed by Ethier and I think that card has a lot of potential. I think that I may have overpaid a bit but that is the only 9.5 in existance and you don't see many come up for sale.
Thoughts?

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This will probably be the most that your card ever sells for. If it's for a PC, then I am glad you got a rare card. If you plan on selling it, you will most likely be unable to profit from its future sale.

David

I saw that it originally ended for $178.00 on 7/26 and didn't meet the reserve that the seller set but that was before Ethier got on his recent hot streak and he also plays for the Dodgers which helps. I don't think that I'll be able to make a big profit but I can't see why I wouldn't be able to get at least $300 for it if Ethier comes out of the gate hot next season should I decide to sell it. Matt Kemp's Bowman Chrome gold refractor auto recently sold for $260 ungraded and Kemp and Ethier are similar players. The Ethier is also the only 9.5 so it should command a premium

steve76 said:

I saw that it originally ended for $178.00 on 7/26 and didn't meet the reserve that the seller set but that was before Ethier got on his recent hot streak and he also plays for the Dodgers which helps. I don't think that I'll be able to make a big profit but I can't see why I wouldn't be able to get at least $300 for it if Ethier comes out of the gate hot next season should I decide to sell it. Matt Kemp's Bowman Chrome gold refractor auto recently sold for $260 ungraded and Kemp and Ethier are similar players. The Ethier is also the only 9.5 so it should command a premium

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Not to be a smartass but if you have it all figured out then why are you asking?He gave you an honest answer,that in all likelyhood is correst.
Mike

steve76 said:

I saw that it originally ended for $178.00 on 7/26 and didn't meet the reserve that the seller set but that was before Ethier got on his recent hot streak and he also plays for the Dodgers which helps. I don't think that I'll be able to make a big profit but I can't see why I wouldn't be able to get at least $300 for it if Ethier comes out of the gate hot next season should I decide to sell it. Matt Kemp's Bowman Chrome gold refractor auto recently sold for $260 ungraded and Kemp and Ethier are similar players. The Ethier is also the only 9.5 so it should command a premium

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To be fair, I don't consider Kemp and Ethier similar players. Kemp is a much better overall player, and plays a premium defensive position. I like Ethier, but Kemp is easily more talented and has the higher ceiling, along with better overall stats at the moment.

Not to be a smartass but if you have it all figured out then why are you asking?He gave you an honest answer,that in all likelyhood is correst.
Mike

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I posted the response that I did because I didn't agree with his statement that $250 is the most that card is ever going to sell for. I might agree with him if Ethier is traded to a small market team like the Pirates but that is the only 9.5 in existence so it should command a premium with Dodgers collectors if he ends the season hitting well or starts out next season strong. I had an ungraded James Loney 2006 Bowman Chrome gold refractor auto that I sold for $275 last year when Loney was on a tear and that wasn't even his true rookie card.

Not a bad buy, but remember that the Kemp is a bowman chrome versus the topps chrome of the ethier...I think that also contributes to the price ceiling

If you're just looking to flip quickly, you probably should hope he has a great post-season, which he is definitely capable of. If not, just hold on to it and he should play in alot of Octobers in near future, when you can capatilize on his popularity.

If he continues this Mr. Clutch thing for the Dodgers, you can absolutely expect to make a profit. That is his ultimate rookie card. Doesn't get any better.

Clutch / Post Season performers have followings that last forever, and if Ethier continues the way he's been going, you'll have the best rookie card of a Dodger Favorite. If he suddenly stinks, or gets traded, you're hosed.

I like your chances.

Think about what you are saying now. Ethier is already going on a tear, which is the worst time to buy. What will he have to do to make the value go up now?

Also, Kemp has a much higher ceiling and a better skill set than Ethier. Plus you were comparing Kemp's gold ref RC auto which has sold for $260 ungraded (I sold mine for $275) to Ethier's which has sold to you for $250 graded. The Ethier is also #'d to 65 while the Kemp is #'d to 50. The Kemp is lower numbered, ungraded, and sells for more than the Ethier.

Based on that, I'm not really sure how close they are in comparison. While the Ethier is a nice card to have, you have to remember that they were going for $80 or so the last two years. You have bought at its peak.

Being a Dodger fan, I hope he tears it up in the playoffs but he will have to do some amazing things for you to get a profit on that card.

steve76 said:

Not to be a smartass but if you have it all figured out then why are you asking?He gave you an honest answer,that in all likelyhood is correst.
Mike

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I posted the response that I did because I didn't agree with his statement that $250 is the most that card is ever going to sell for. I might agree with him if Ethier is traded to a small market team like the Pirates but that is the only 9.5 in existence so it should command a premium with Dodgers collectors if he ends the season hitting well or starts out next season strong. I had an ungraded James Loney 2006 Bowman Chrome gold refractor auto that I sold for $275 last year when Loney was on a tear and that wasn't even his true rookie card.

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The Ethier is also #'d to 65 while the Kemp is #'d to 50. The Kemp is lower numbered, ungraded, and sells for more than the Ethier.

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The base red xfractor parallels are #'d of 65 but the Ethier is #'d of 25 as are all of the red xfractor autos. I agree that Kemp has a higher ceiling and is 2 years younger but the Topps Chrome auto is also on card and I'm pretty sure that people opened a lot less 2005 Topps Chrome Update packs and boxes than 2005 Bowman Chrome so I'm sure that there are far fewer than 25 Ethier's in circulation. I guess that time will tell.

leatherman said:

steve76 said:

I was scanning the auctions that were ending on eBay yesterday night and came across a 2005 Topps Chrome Andre Ethier Red Xfractor Auto /25 graded BGS 9.5. The minimum bid was $249.99 and I decided to bid because I've been impressed by Ethier and I think that card has a lot of potential. I think that I may have overpaid a bit but that is the only 9.5 in existance and you don't see many come up for sale.
Thoughts?

Click to expand...

This will probably be the most that your card ever sells for. If it's for a PC, then I am glad you got a rare card. If you plan on selling it, you will most likely be unable to profit from its future sale.

David

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IF Ethier has a great start next year...

IF Ethier performs well in the postseason...

These are things that are unlikely to happen. Can they happen? Absolutely. But what are the chances? 10% chance he starts crazy hot next year? 10% chance he performs heroically in the postseason? Even if you sell at $300, you are paying $9.00 in Paypal fees, $5 to ship, and $12 Final Value Fees, so you are only clearing $274. So you are basically taking a big risk to make $24, or 10% profit.

Instead, you bought at A peak. Maybe not THE peak his cards will sell for, but you popped a big BIN the day after he hit a walk-off shot.

You are in a high risk, low reward scenario with this card. I wish you luck, but if you are trying to make money on this card, you need a lot of good things to go your way.


David