when does a players auto become worth what his auto is worth

derek jeter cal ripken and others {modern players}
the above two players have a set price affixed to their autos.
i look at the prospect card auto prices and i wonder.
to use longoria as an example. i picked up a ticket to stardom auto for $33. his base key 2006 can be had for $200ish then you have 1/5 1/50 1/1 etc...longo auto cards are being pumped out on a regular basis. lets say longo has a long prosperous career and becomes a jeter/ripken like fan loved player. 15 years from now will collectors really care you are selling a 2006 blue ref auto or will they just say, oh longo auto $500.
it scares me a bit to think that with all the autos being pumped out eventually people will eventually discount the cards attributes we add value to ie..ser# and just ascribe a set value to an auto
am i wrong?
if things in the industry remain the same how many longo autos will be produced in 15 yrs?
is any one paying a premium for jeters first on card auto?

I think this really depends on whether the card was purchased for the auto, for the card, or for both.

I'm not a big auto collector myself, so the card the auto is on doesn't matter much to me, I'm mostly interested in the card.

Good thread!

totran said:

derek jeter cal ripken and others {modern players}
the above two players have a set price affixed to their autos.
i look at the prospect card auto prices and i wonder.
to use longoria as an example. i picked up a ticket to stardom auto for $33. his base key 2006 can be had for $200ish then you have 1/5 1/50 1/1 etc...longo auto cards are being pumped out on a regular basis. lets say longo has a long prosperous career and becomes a jeter/ripken like fan loved player. 15 years from now will collectors really care you are selling a 2006 blue ref auto or will they just say, oh longo auto $500.
it scares me a bit to think that with all the autos being pumped out eventually people will eventually discount the cards attributes we add value to ie..ser# and just ascribe a set value to an auto
am i wrong?
if things in the industry remain the same how many longo autos will be produced in 15 yrs?
is any one paying a premium for jeters first on card auto?

Click to expand...

First of all, good idea for a topic of discussion.

My 1st instinct is to think that the hobby landscape will be different 15 years from now.
Guys like Jeter, Ripken, Arod, et al do not have a BC red ref. auto or 1st year super, so
I think that may change the game a bit when it comes to guys like Longo.

As far as retired/superstar/fan favorite autos are concerned, I don't think there is a set
price for any player. Regardless of serial numbering, etc. there are certain auto cards from
particular sets that consistantly sell for more than "rare" cards from other sets.

I have Dawson cards /50, or /100 that cost me more than others I have /5, or /10. I think
factors such as set, subset, on card vs. sticker auto have a greater effect than is realized.

chashawk said:

I have Dawson cards /50, or /100 that cost me more than others I have /5, or /10. I think
factors such as set, subset, on card vs. sticker auto have a greater effect than is realized.

Click to expand...

Perfect point!

In no way or form are said card prices set in stone.
ALOT can very on set, numbering, and whether on-card or not.

good points so far
i do believe collectors will always value the on card auto more than the sticker.
my concern is mainly with the sheer quantity of autos being produced. ser#'s are a relatively new concept. 15 yrs from now when there are 15,000 longoria autos in circulation will the hobby value the 2006 red ref 1/3 as highly? my fear is that "rarity" will no longer be a factor in the future when there is so much volume to pick from.
no one has a crystal ball to predict what turns our hobby will take.but your thoughts on the matter are valued. im holding a bunch of autos and am very concerned about the current trend in our hobby.

I think there will still be additional value ascribed to the rookie auto in much the same way that a rookie card is generally more desired than a 2nd year card.

Alex

A guy like Ripken (who will almost certainly sign 10 times more autographs than Bob Feller in his lifetime) will probably see the standard autograph value come down. Obviously unique pieces, or premium pieces will have a better growth value...cards and such signed by Ripken should only come down.

Everything is supply and demand.

Most people here would probably be bummed to pull a Bob Feller autograph simply because there is not much value in it, but when it comes to baseball legends...he is up there as one of the greats.

Looking at long-term value and expectations, scarcity is important...whether it is real or perceived.

Sadly I agree with this, as it's a topic I have thought of whenever looking at PC's and seeing the premium's some people pay on parallels that have little difference other than a color or serial number. I've thought it can even be a bigger problem in basketball/football - where the rc's are the main draw.....so while a certain product may have rc auto's "limited" to 399 or something, that doesn't factor in the other 29 or so products that also have rc auto's.....and like you I've worried at some point people may look at it as "an auto is an auto" , especially when it's a product that uses stickers. Hopefully the sheer number of auto's and products being produced won't create a situation like the 90's - where essentially all the cards have lost value over time.


Guess we'll have to wait and see - I'm sure certain products like Exquisite and SP Authentic (in other sports) will hold their premium and baseball will have the cards that collector's recognize as "true rc's/first year cards". This also may be the one area where the exclusive contracts could have a positive effect - we'll have to wait and see on that too, but with Topps having the baseball license and Panini with basketball - hopefully some of that overproduction will subside and it may be easier to define key rc's - at least that's what I hope.

There will never be another Longo first year auto card produced so in the long run these will retain their value and his normal autographs will get cheaper and cheaper as more get produced. In short while I think an over abundance of autographs hurts the value of a normal autograph of that player, a first year autograph will generally be a reflection of that player's overall popularity in the collectible market.

I understand what you're saying but they aren't making any more Longo 2007 or 2008 auto cards either.

TraderJake said:

There will never be another Longo first year auto card produced so in the long run these will retain their value and his normal autographs will get cheaper and cheaper as more get produced. In short while I think an over abundance of autographs hurts the value of a normal autograph of that player, a first year autograph will generally be a reflection of that player's overall popularity in the collectible market.

Click to expand...

so i guess we can agree
sticker auto < on card auto
fans and collectors will value a players first auto over subsequent autos

still up for debate...
a third year longoria auto # to 10. 12 yrs later will that fall under a auto is an auto rule?

and a more personal question. i have a beckham gold auto /50 2008 [sticker] bowman sterling. should i sell it and buy his regular chrome on card autos?

totran said:

so i guess we can agree
sticker auto < on card auto

Click to expand...

Sooo... if anyone ever needs any more evidence:

Vs.

Say what you will, that DK wouldn't be the same with a giant silver sticker blocking a good part of the image.

Or.

VS.

Is consensus that important if you buy what you want - or is it more important to buy what everyone else likes?

But to be fair this whole topic should be a sticky somewhere as it always seems to come up.

totran said:

so i guess we can agree
sticker auto < on card auto
fans and collectors will value a players first auto over subsequent autos

still up for debate...
a third year longoria auto # to 10. 12 yrs later will that fall under a auto is an auto rule?

and a more personal question. i have a beckham gold auto /50 2008 [sticker] bowman sterling. should i sell it and buy his regular chrome on card autos?

Click to expand...

totran said:

so i guess we can agree
sticker auto < on card auto
fans and collectors will value a players first auto over subsequent autos

still up for debate...
a third year longoria auto # to 10. 12 yrs later will that fall under a auto is an auto rule?

and a more personal question. i have a beckham gold auto /50 2008 [sticker] bowman sterling. should i sell it and buy his regular chrome on card autos?

Click to expand...

That's just the thing. There are very few absolutes when it comes to cards. Everything is very dependant on player, product, etc.

I have sticker autos in my collection that I value much more than some on-card autos I have.

And I still don't have a copy of Dawson's 1st few auto cards, because aesthetically they are really not all that appealing to me.

Your assertions may be true of the last several years, but I don't think it holds true for some older players.

Adam - I wholeheartedly agree with the examples you posted...but I'd take

this


over this, anyday.

uniquebaseballcards said:

Is consensus that important if you buy what you want - or is it more important to buy what everyone else likes?

But to be fair this whole topic should be a sticky somewhere as it always seems to come up.

Click to expand...

[/quote]

no consensus is not important to what i collect. every year i pick a player and i trade for and buy what i can for long term collecting
last year was longo this year its beckham

i have been collecting 2 years and its all new to me so yes i want to know opinions so i can make up my own mind

Chas:

How about over this one?



I dunno if the other version is Cubs since I know that's your goal.

the donruss diamond kings those were always favorites of mine those recollected autos are very nice
theres a member on here that has an in person auto ginter 2008 longo rc
[the white one with smalish longo pic] it looks amazing. ginter put out their version with longos auto in a box and killed the card....

id love to buy that in person auto i was turned down when i asked monhs ago

A_Pharis said:

Chas:

How about over this one?



I dunno if the other version is Cubs since I know that's your goal.

Click to expand...

Dawson actually has 80 recollection autos, including 13 Diamond Kings. Cubs and Expos.
I'd like to own all of them. :mrgreen: