How the Market is Artificially Set

I just wanted to spread a little information about a player I had been watching to try to snag a few cheap cards of that is a new release from 2009 Bowman Draft.

I saw a player that I wanted from the set that I noticed was probably going to be a little underpriced out of the gate due to small market status. He has a bit of name appeal but nothing really eye popping.

The first Gold comes up and the BIN is hit at $40. I thought at the time that was about right for said player. In that same time frame, a BIN is popped on a Blue /99 for $30.... which I thought was probably a bit higher than normal or perhaps an overpayment slightly.

Flash forward and an orange comes up at $70. I think about buying it and hitting the BIN but decide to pass. It stays up for a few hours and somebody finally tags it. I say, okay, probably about the going rate. Then another gold comes up. Somebody, having seen the price of the orange, decides to hit the BIN at $60. I thought it was a pretty hefty price. I decided that the auctions would probably be more beneficial.

Then the first auction on a gold comes down the line. I put in my bid of $50 and expect that to carry or at least come close.

The card ends at $80.

Through incremental BIN purchases, it becomes obvious how one could set an artificial market for a card if they were so inclined and had a strong enough business model. You get multiple copies of a card, hit a crazy BIN or two early after release, and then watch the rest of the flock follow shortly after.

There is now a BIN of the card that ended for $80 up for $100.... and it wouldn't shock me if somebody hit it.

Not really complaining per say about missing out on this guy, because at these prices it's not missing out at all, but simply noting an observation about unreliable and unstable the market is for certain players shortly after release and with a few quick BIN hits, you can create an artificial floor for your cards that other people will follow. It's an interesting observation of human behavior.

I think you're reading a little much into a microscopic amount of market activity, especially on a historically volatile and anticipated set like BDP. BIN prices are not a good pricing barometer to begin with, and assuming that someone hit a couple BINs to force a higher auction price is placing a tremendous amount of credit on some buyer and virtually none on every other buyer. Besides, even if that is what's happening, and it's happening by design, that's not 'artificially' setting the market, that's actually setting the market. Like the guys who bought up all the 2001 BC Davenports or 2002 Elite Rioses or 2003 Exquisite Iversons, if you're paying $X for every copy, the market for that card is $X+.

in the early life span of a product

anything can and will happen

smapdi said:

I think you're reading a little much into a microscopic amount of market activity, especially on a historically volatile and anticipated set like BDP. BIN prices are not a good pricing barometer to begin with, and assuming that someone hit a couple BINs to force a higher auction price is placing a tremendous amount of credit on some buyer and virtually none on every other buyer. Besides, even if that is what's happening, and it's happening by design, that's not 'artificially' setting the market, that's actually setting the market. Like the guys who bought up all the 2001 BC Davenports or 2002 Elite Rioses or 2003 Exquisite Iversons, if you're paying $X for every copy, the market for that card is $X+.

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Elaborate?

I figured Decker would come out pretty hot, considering he's actually produced, unlike many of the most recent draft picks. Plus, it seems like every thread about a new prospect release had people asking for Decker.

cammy collector said:

smapdi said:

I think you're reading a little much into a microscopic amount of market activity, especially on a historically volatile and anticipated set like BDP. BIN prices are not a good pricing barometer to begin with, and assuming that someone hit a couple BINs to force a higher auction price is placing a tremendous amount of credit on some buyer and virtually none on every other buyer. Besides, even if that is what's happening, and it's happening by design, that's not 'artificially' setting the market, that's actually setting the market. Like the guys who bought up all the 2001 BC Davenports or 2002 Elite Rioses or 2003 Exquisite Iversons, if you're paying $X for every copy, the market for that card is $X+.

Click to expand...

Elaborate?

Click to expand...

What does he need to elaborate on? He spelled it out perfectly the first time.

I want to clarify that I don't suspect that this is some elaborate ploy to create a massive profit for some guy out there hoarding a stash of a certain player. I am just saying that observing this trend with a particular player has given me a greater respect for the power of the BIN. You can make anybody a star with that kind of activity if you had the stones to follow it all the way out.

A board member snatched the 1/99 Blue for $30. Looking like a good price... time will tell tho.

Decker played for my local minor league team this past season... I was hoping to pick up a few of his cards.... but at these prices im passing.

P_Manning 18 said:

A board member snatched the 1/99 Blue for $30. Looking like a good price... time will tell tho.

Decker played for my local minor league team this past season... I was hoping to pick up a few of his cards.... but at these prices im passing.

Click to expand...

I had to know that the sleuths here would look into the prices and spill the beans. No worries though as it's not like the prices were ever reasonable to start with. I am starting to wonder if that $40 Gold ever gets shipped, to be honest.

I really like Decker, but the possibility of him having a chrome auto out prior to any potential debut makes the current prices look pretty bleak for future profit margins.

I scratch my head every time I go to see what the guys I have in hand are selling for. Its mindboggling. I couldn't put a decent value on anything right now.

Vagrant said:

P_Manning 18 said:

A board member snatched the 1/99 Blue for $30. Looking like a good price... time will tell tho.

Decker played for my local minor league team this past season... I was hoping to pick up a few of his cards.... but at these prices im passing.

Click to expand...

I had to know that the sleuths here would look into the prices and spill the beans. No worries though as it's not like the prices were ever reasonable to start with. I am starting to wonder if that $40 Gold ever gets shipped, to be honest.

I really like Decker, but the possibility of him having a chrome auto out prior to any potential debut makes the current prices look pretty bleak for future profit margins.

Click to expand...

I wasnt the first to say his name.

Vagrant said:

P_Manning 18 said:

A board member snatched the 1/99 Blue for $30. Looking like a good price... time will tell tho.

Decker played for my local minor league team this past season... I was hoping to pick up a few of his cards.... but at these prices im passing.

Click to expand...

I had to know that the sleuths here would look into the prices and spill the beans. No worries though as it's not like the prices were ever reasonable to start with. I am starting to wonder if that $40 Gold ever gets shipped, to be honest.

I really like Decker, but the possibility of him having a chrome auto out prior to any potential debut makes the current prices look pretty bleak for future profit margins.

Click to expand...

It was actually pretty easy to figure out, didn't even need to look on eBay. With such a weak base set, the number of players that would garner decent prices is small. I actually thought you were talking about one of the guys I'm looking at in the set at first, then as I kept reading I was like, ohhhh, it's Decker. There was an Orange Ref in the eBay stores earlier for $80, almost took it, passed, but after I read this I went and checked, it's gone.

P_Manning 18 said:

Vagrant said:

[quote="P_Manning 18":3s4kqs2r]A board member snatched the 1/99 Blue for $30. Looking like a good price... time will tell tho.

Decker played for my local minor league team this past season... I was hoping to pick up a few of his cards.... but at these prices im passing.

Click to expand...

I had to know that the sleuths here would look into the prices and spill the beans. No worries though as it's not like the prices were ever reasonable to start with. I am starting to wonder if that $40 Gold ever gets shipped, to be honest.

I really like Decker, but the possibility of him having a chrome auto out prior to any potential debut makes the current prices look pretty bleak for future profit margins.

Click to expand...

I wasnt the first to say his name.[/quote:3s4kqs2r]

I know, and had I been worried about people finding out who it was I wouldn't have listed prices. I just wanted to make sure the people that did care wouldn't put it on me for drawing more attention to one of their guys. No harm done here.

Vagrant said:

P_Manning 18 said:

Vagrant said:

[quote="P_Manning 18":1f2vigwo]A board member snatched the 1/99 Blue for $30. Looking like a good price... time will tell tho.

Decker played for my local minor league team this past season... I was hoping to pick up a few of his cards.... but at these prices im passing.

Click to expand...

I had to know that the sleuths here would look into the prices and spill the beans. No worries though as it's not like the prices were ever reasonable to start with. I am starting to wonder if that $40 Gold ever gets shipped, to be honest.

I really like Decker, but the possibility of him having a chrome auto out prior to any potential debut makes the current prices look pretty bleak for future profit margins.

Click to expand...

I wasnt the first to say his name.

Click to expand...

I know, and had I been worried about people finding out who it was I wouldn't have listed prices. I just wanted to make sure the people that did care wouldn't put it on me for drawing more attention to one of their guys. No harm done here.[/quote:1f2vigwo]

I wouldn't worry about that - it's not like Decker was under the radar or anything.

2001 Bowman Chrome Ron Davenport, anyone?

Artificially setting the market is an absolutely brilliant move, and if Topps ever put their company in my hands; I'd be the crookedest **** in town.

Considering the amount of product on eBay, and how long recent purchases are archived for, you should be able to really topple that ******.

Always working from the mid-margin, just give two bored employees 2000-3000 in cash and set them free on eBay. Tell them to drive the prices up in slow increments until the items get within X dollars of a desired amount. People will pay a lot out of the gate, so don't really worry about accidentally winning it -- that's what your bankroll is for.

Just drive those ******* up: Each and every one of them.

Doing that will allow you to sell umpteen times as much product, for the low-low price of 6 G's.

A lot of people make their decisions to buy a product based on risk assessment and if you could manipulate that for even just two weeks, you're golden. That's when the retailers would start ordering more from the distributors, and the distributors from the warehouse.

The best part, is once you set the wheels in motion, the market will support itself for a few weeks after that due to the perceived value.

With that said, you can't really manipulate the market with the amount of cards you're specifying. You certainly can manipulate people into thinking they're getting a good deal, but the market itself won't change let alone support itself.